Sully's Big Blog! Commentary on College Football, Weekly Games, And Strange Statistics!

SEC Game of the Week

Florida @ Auburn: There typically are two or three games in this conference that are as good or better than the best game in other leagues. Given that, let me give you a run down on who is playing whom: 6-0 Alabama @ 2-3 Ole Miss, 6-0 LSU @ 3-2 Tennessee, 5-1 Arkansas is Idle, 3-3 Mississippi State hosts 5-1 South Carolina, 4-2 Georgia welcomes 3-2 Vanderbilt, and 2-4 Kentucky has a Bye Week.

I was tempted to have the LSU-Tennessee or South Carolina-Mississippi State tilts as the game of the week, but an injury (thumb on the throwing hand of Tennessee’s QB, Tyler Bray) ended that thought for the Tiger -Volunteer game. The Mississippi State-South Carolina game is huge for both teams, a loss here and the Bulldogs are headed back to irrelevance in the SEC; meanwhile, the Gamecocks need to win this game to maintain their advantage over Georgia in the East Division of the SEC. While both teams are 3-1 in SEC play, South Carolina beat Georgia, 45-42, in the second week of the season and as a result of that win, hold the tie breaker. However, a loss here by the Gamecocks and a Georgia win @ home against Vandy, would result in Georgia, not South Carolina, controlling its fate to the SEC Companionship Game @ Atlanta’s Georgia Dome.

All that said, the Florida @ Auburn meeting has to many story lines to not identify as the game of the week. Florida enters this contest having suffered two straight defeats, one to Bama, 38-10 @ home and another on the road, at Baton Rouge, to LSU, 41-10. One could argue, that the Gators just lined up against the two best defenses in all of college football this season, Alabama & LSU, and easily, (sorry Oklahoma) win that debate. Florida’s starting QB, John Brantley, was ruled out for the Auburn game on Monday and Coach Will Muschamp, has said that Jacoby Brissett will be penciled in to start the game. However, fellow freshman, Jeff Driskel, who won the backup position in fall Camp, and like Brantley, was injured in the Bama game (ankle), has healed enough to be in the mix to start. Auburn’s QB, Barrett Trotter, has also been in the news this week. Many put the poor offensive performance against Arkansas directly on Trotter’s play and are looking to make a move to get Kiehl Fraziel, a highly prized recruit, into the QB role full time. Coach Chizik, while recognizing QB concerns, was quick to point to 6 holding penalties and dropped passes as contributing elements that factored into the Tigers poor play on Saturday. Either way, Trotter is starting the game and Frazier will continue his role in the wildcat formations… for now!

These teams have met twice in the past five years, but have not played in the last three. In 06, Auburn beat Florida, 27-17 and in 07, Auburn was again the victor, this time, 20-17. The Tigers are 4-2 and the Gators, are also, 4-2, the game is being played @ Auburn and Florida is a 2 point favorite. Florida is averaging 30.3 PPG, while Auburn is @ 27.8, given their QB concerns and changes, this stat may not be relevant. Yet, their defensive scoring (points allowed) may be the key, the Gators are giving up 19.1 PPG (remember they just got tapped by Bama for 38 & LSU for 41) and Auburn is surrendering 29.1 PPG. In Total Defense, Florida is ranked 11th nationally, giving up 291 YPG, to Auburn’s 105th rank and their allowing a whopping 439.5 YPG. Based on what these teams have done and are doing defensively, I like Florida! Although we did not mention it here, Florida does have speed to burn, with Jeff Demps & Chris Rainey. Florida 35 Auburn 24

 

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