Sully’s 4 Pack of Winners review of Week 12 & a Prediction: ND vs UNC!

Last week Sully’s College Football Page (SCFP) went 2 and 2 vs the Spread!

We took Indiana and the 19.5 vs Ohio State, IU had a shot to win or tie, the Hoosiers had the ball, down 42-35, with 2 minutes to play! The Bucks held up and won the game 42-35, yet were no where near covering the 19 and a half. SCFP 1-0!

In our second game, we took Wisconsin -7 vs Northwestern. The Badgers outgained the Cats, 366 to 263, Bucky was a plus 103 total yards (Rushing: UW 136 / NU 24 yards & Passing: NW 239 / UW 230). Both teams struggled on 3rd down; UW 3/16 (18.75%) while NW was 2/15 (13.33%). The two statistical elements that turned the flow of this game in the favor of Northwestern were penalties NW 1 for 5 yards to UW 8-69 and the most significant stat was Turnovers, the Wildcats forced Bucky into 5 TO’s while dropping the ball just once! Northwestern 17 Wisconsin 7. An SCFP loss, 1 an 1 in week 12!

Our 3rd pick, was Oklahoma State, plus 9.5, vs OU. We liked the Pokes based on common opponents, the Cowboys had beaten Iowa State & Kansas State, two teams that had beaten OU! Another common opponent, Texas, OU beat the Horns in triple OT, 53-45, OSU lost to Texas, 41-34, in OT. We predicted an OU win but thought they would not cover the spread! Wrong! The OSU defense has been one of the most discussed units in the B-12 regarding their improvement, their D did not show up!! OU outgained the Pokes 492 to 246, holding the Cowboys rushing attack to a pathetic, 78 yards! Final OU 41 OSU 13. SCFP is now 1-2 in week 12!

In our 4th pick, we took USC and gave Utah the 2.5 points! SC dominated the LOS on the defensive side of the ball, holding the Utes to 93 yards rushing, while winning the TO battle, 5 to 2! The Trojans were also better on 3rd down, 5/13 (38.465) to Utah’s 3/11 (27.27%) USC won and covered, 33-17! SCFP 2nd win of the weekend, leaving us at 2 & 2 for the week and for the year 16-13-1!

Here is our Friday special, ND @ UNC, Our 4 Pack will be out tomorrow!

Notre Dame 8-0 / 7-0 @ North Carolina 6-2 / 6-2 TV: 2:30 / ABC; Favorite: ND -3.5. Since 2009, the teams have only played twice, ND has won both games; in 2014, ND 50 UNC 43 and in 2017, the Irish won 33-10. Notre Dame leads the series 18 wins to 1 defeat (1960, 12-7 @ Chapel Hill). It should be noted, the Tar Heels did beat the Irish in 2008, 29-24, but the win was vacated by the NCAA, in fact, all UNC wins in 2008 & 2009 were vacated for NCAA violations!

In my view, this is the best game of the weekend. Ok here we go!

ND has lost 40% of its Offensive Line, RG, Tommy Kramer & Center, Jarrett Patterson are out, Kraemer (Appendicitis/will be back in 2020) & Patterson (foot/lost for year). This will test the Irish’s depth, as they must be able to run the ball, which, in this game, will have the added benefit of keeping that powerful Heel offense sitting on the side line!

UNC has star power everywhere on offense; QB, Sam Howell , 2nd in the country in passing TD, with 23; two RB’s, Javonte Williams, 5th in the country in rushing yards, with 886 & Michael Carter, 9th, with 807 rushing yards! Their WR’s are terrific, Dyami Brown is 4th in the nation, with 829 receiving yards & Dazz Newsome, ranked 50th, with 455 receiving yards.

While all of these individual are out performing their Irish counterparts, when you look at the teams as a whole, you get a different perspective! UNC & ND have rushed, to this point in the season, for an identical 233.5 YPG. ND runs the ball more by committee, Kyren Williams, Chris Tyree, C’Bo Flemister & Ian Book!

On defense, ND (5th best rushing D) allows a meager 85.1 YPG, while the Heels (ranked 54th) allow 151.9! UNC has the 14th best passing offense (329.9 YPG) in the country, while ND is 68th, averaging 228.8 YPG. In 2 games this year, UNC passed for 993 yards, 550 yards (Wake Forest) a 59-52 win & 443 yards (Virginia) in a 44-41 loss! ND has held 6 of their 8 opponents under 100 yards rushing and has allowed only one team, Clemson, to pass for over 300 yards. ND gives up 219.0 YPG, while UNC allows 261.8 YPG!

This game comes down to 1st; ND’s ability to run the ball/stop the run and 2nd, their ability to pressure Howell in the throw game. The ND rush defense held Clemson’s, Travis Etienne to 34 yards rushing, so it is likely, UNC will struggle to run the ball vs the Irish front 7. And finally, ND QB, Ian Book has played lights out in 2020, the Irish will need Book to play, at least, as well as he played vs Clemson, if they are to take down North Carolina in Chapel Hill!

Sully Says: Take ND and give UNC the 3.5 in Chapel Hill! However, do not take the betting dollars out of Thanksgiving week’s Sunday offering, this one will be tight!

And as always, Enjoy the games!