Ball State 2-1 @ Toledo 2-1; TV: 11:00 / ESPN 3; Favorite: Toledo -8.5; These teams play in the same division, the MAC West. Since 2009, the teams have met 11 times, with Toledo having won 8 of those meetings! This includes 5 straight, until 2019, when the Cardinals put a tail whipping on the Rockets, 52-14! Toledo was the preseason favorite to win the West Division. Ball State lost its opener to Miami OH, 38-31 and then beat Eastern Michigan, by the identical score, 38-31 & Northern Illinois, 31-25. While Toledo hammered Bowling Green in their opener, 38-3 and then blew a 10 point lead (38-28) in the last 2:10, losing to Western Michigan, 41-38! Last week the Rockets handled Eastern Michigan, 45-28! SCFP Game Simulator likes Toledo in 6 of 8 Categories assessed (Total Yards, Passing Yards, Rushing Yards, Scoring, Turnovers, 3rd Down Conversion, Red Zone Scores, & Red Zone TD’s) Ball State outperforms Toledo, by the numbers, only in RZ scores (TD’s & FG’s) and RZ TD’s! Sully Says: Take Toledo and give State the 8.5!
Northwestern 5-0 @ Michigan State 1-3; TV: 2:30 NBC, Favorite: NW -11. I, for one, am done underestimating Northwestern in 2020! The Cats have forced 15 TO’s (4 fumble recoveries & 11 INT’s) in 5 games, while the Spartans have coughed the ball up 14 times in 4 games! Not looking good for Sparty! The teams have one common opponent, Iowa; MSU was blasted by the Hawks, 49-7, in Iowa City, while NW went to the same venue and beat Iowa, 21-20! The Wildcats are coming off an emotional win over Wisconsin, 17-7, meanwhile, the Spartans have had a week to think about their last 2 games, both losses, the Iowa game and their 24-0 loss to Indiana, on November, 14th! Sully Says: Take the Cats and give the Spartans the 11 points, even @ Spartan Stadium!
Maryland 2-1 @ Indiana 4-1; TV: 11:00 / ESPN 2; Favorite: IU -15: The last four games between these teams have been one score outcomes. In 2016, the Hoosiers won, 42-36; in 2017, Maryland won, 42-39; 2018, IU won, 34-32; and in last year’s game, Indiana won again, 34-28! I like the 15 points based on the recent history of this game. Maryland opened 2020, by getting hammered by Northwestern 43-3, since then, they have won 2 straight, beating Minnesota, 45-44 & then they beat Penn State, by 16, 35-19! IU opened the 2020 season 4-0, with wins over PSU, 36-35 in OT, a 37-21 win over Rutgers, the Hoosiers then took down Wolverines, 38-21, & shut-out Michigan State, 24-0! Tommy Allen’s team then suffered their 1st lost, to Ohio State, 42-35! The Terps QB, Taulia Tagovailoa, has led Maryland’s offense to 80 points in the last 2 games. Sully Says: IU wins; but does not cover the 15, its Maryland and the points that carry the day!
Auburn 5-2 @ Alabama 7-0; TV: 2:30 / CBS; Favorite: Bama -24: Since 2009, only 3 of the 11 winners of the Iron Bowl would have covered the 24 points. In 2011, Alabama won 42-14, the Tide won again in 2012, 49-0, & in 2018, Roll Tide Roll, this time, 52-21. It was always Bama that covered the 24, twice in Tuscaloosa (2012 & 2018) and once @ Auburn (2011)! Alabama is averaging 49 points per game (PPG) 3rd best in the country and surrendering only 19 PPG, while Auburn is giving up only 22 PPG, its scoring 29 PPG leaves a spread of 7 points, from what is scored to what is allowed, to Bama’s 30!. Alabama’s margin of victory, after 7 games, is 25.7. The Tide is converting 54% on 3rd down, while Auburn is allowing 3rd down conversions @ the alarming rate of 52.1% of the time (119th in the country), Simply put, the Tigers are going to struggle to get Bama off the field! Sully Says: take the Tide and give the War Eagles the 24!
And as always. Enjoy the Games!
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