Sully’s Six Pack of Winners – Week 9

Indiana @ Illinois (-2)

In what will undoubtedly prove to be one of the more meaningless conference games this week, Sully’s CFP sees opportunity with this line.  While these are both struggling teams (2-5 each), one program has been competitive, while the other has been dead in the water.  Over the past three games that has included bouts with Michigan State and Ohio State, Indiana has lost by an average of less than three points, while Illinois has been pantsed by Michigan (45-0), Wisconsin (38-14) and Penn State (35-7).  Illinois is terrible offensively (ranked 114th in scoring offense), and they make up for it by being terrible defensively (giving up over 30 points per game).  At the very least, Indiana is decent offensively, as they are scoring about 35 points each game.  With that in mind, our intuition is one thing, but numbers are another.  If one were to take a peak at our game simulator, they would find that it agrees with us on this particular line, as it has Indiana winning by a score of 33-25 (http://sullyscollegefootballpage.com/Football_Stats/Matchup.cfm).  Final Verdict: Go with Indiana in this one.

Maryland @ BC (-1.5)

Before even really getting into any sort of analysis of this one, let me remind you guys that this is a Boston College team with one victory that came over Maine.  Anyone know a single player that plays for Maine?  Yea, me neither, and with good reason.  Maine can’t beat FCS teams (2-5), much less FBS ones, even if they are as bad as Boston College (1-6).  Maryland is not exactly a team that will knock anyone’s socks off (4-3), but they are what could be described as average, which at this point is a lot more than what BC can claim.  When we saw that BC was actually, by the grace of God, favored to win a conference game, against a team with a winning record, no less, we were shocked.  Take Maryland in this one.  They are not very good, but they are definitely good enough to beat the lowly Boston College, regardless of the games location.

Notre Dame @ Oklahoma (-10)

On the surface, this is a game that many people will approach with great trepidation, and it is certainly easy enough to see why.  Notre Dame (7-0) has kept games close all year, despite their lackluster offense, by having the #2 scoring defense in the country (9 PPG), but against Oklahoma a team absolutely must find a way to generate some offense, because the Sooners are simply too good to be beat by one dimensional teams.  Oklahoma has an exceptional offense (ranked 5th in the country!) and they have an awesome defense to go with it, as they give up only 15 PPG which is good for the 15th ranked scoring defense in the country.  The other team that is ranked in the top 15 on defense and offense, you ask? Alabama.  This begs the question of how exactly Notre Dame will even keep this game close, and our answer comes down to this.  Who has Oklahoma played, and better yet, who have the beat?  UTEP, Florida A&M, Texas Tech, Texas and Kansas.  The one excellent team they have played this year is K-State at home, and they lost.  The common rhetoric we hear on why they are going to crush ND is because ND does not have battle tested DBs, but ND played Miami.  Miami has passed for more yards that OU has this season, and they have done it against an average pass defense ranking of 56th through 8 games, while Oklahoma has done so against an average pass defense ranked #63 through six games.  Of course, Landry Jones is not as mistake prone as Morris is (Miami QB), but the fact still remains that Miami is right there with Oklahoma as a passing offense, and ND absolute shut them down.  At the end of the day, the biggest complaint against Notre Dame is that they have not beat anybody yet, but for the sake of consistency, go look at Oklahoma.  If Notre Dame has not beaten anybody yet, Oklahoma surely hasn’t either.  Oklahoma is a “good” offense that has been doing what it should have been, which is pushing around inferior competition.  The idea that they are a monster offense that is going to completely annihilate the #2 scoring defense in the country does not fly with us.  Sully’s CFP believes that Oklahoma will win this game, but not by 10 points!  We sincerely doubt it.  Take the points and run with Notre Dame.

Michigan @ Nebraska (-2.5)

Our game simulator (http://sullyscollegefootballpage.com/Football_Stats/Matchup.cfm) like Nebraska in nearly everything except the score, as it has Michigan edging them out by one point.  Obviously, in a game like this the numbers are too close to really start to tell any tale, so the next best thing to do is to look at how the teams are preforming as of late.  In this department, Michigan takes the cake.  They are coming into this game riding a three game winning streak, fresh off of a big victory over rival Michigan State, while Nebraska is coming in off of an embarrassing defeat to Ohio State (63-38) and a narrow win over Northwestern (29-28).  Just from watching Michigan over the past few weeks it is starting to become clear that they are finally starting to find their stride from last year again, and as things stand, they look to be primed for a run at the Big Ten Championship once again.  Nebraska seems to have issues with speed, especially at the QB position, on the defensive side of the ball, and like last year, we predict that Michigan will cruise to victory, though perhaps not as wide in margin this year.  Take the points and go with Michigan in this one, folks.

BYU @ Georgia Tech (-2.5)

Georgia Tech is not a very good ball club this season (3-4), and while BYU is only .500 (4-4), they have played some good competition this year (Boise, and top ten BCS teams Oregon State and Notre Dame).  However, what really is attractive about this game is the match-up itself.  BYU is very good defensively, and above all, they are disciplined.  We liken them to a typical Big Ten defense like, say, Iowa.  If one can remember this far back, a few years ago when Iowa played Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl, they handled GT up front and stopped their option attack.  We think BYU can and will do the same, and given the relatively poor defense Georgia Tech has played this year, we think that they will score enough on them to win the game.  Take the points and go with BYU.

Oregon State (-4.5) @ Washington

Oregon State is favored to win by 4.5 points on the road this week against Washington, and to be frank, that is not enough.  Washington just got beat 52-17 by Arizona, who Oregon State has already defeated.  We get that the transitive property does not always apply to college football, but in this case we are willing to make an exception.  If one takes a peak at our simulator, it will also see that it has Oregon State covering this spread (http://sullyscollegefootballpage.com/Football_Stats/Matchup.cfm).  Washington is not playing well right now, as they have been handled three games in a row, while Oregon State is continuing to roll through its competition.  Against an already tired Washington team who has had to face a top ten team two out of the last three weeks, that will not change.  Give Washington the points and go with Oregon State.