Tostitos Fiesta Bowl

Bowl History: The Bowl was established in 1971 and has been played annually since that time! From 1971 to 2006 the event was held @ Sun Devil Stadium, in 2007, the game was moved to its present lacation, University of Phoenix Stadium, in Glendale, Arizona. The first game played in this bowl series was between Arizona State & Florida State. The contest was held on December 27, 1971 with the Sun Devils (ASU) beating the Seminoles (FSU), 45-38! Last year’s game pitted Oklahoma State against Stanford, OSU prevailed in OT, 41-38! The Conference tie-ins are the Big 12 & an at large selection, the bowl payout is $17,000,000.00!

Teams: Kansas State: Conference Affiliation: Big 12; Overall Record 11-1, Conference Record 8-1,  vs Oregon: Conference Affiliation: PAC 12; Overall Record 11-1, Conference Record: 8-1, Divisional Record 5-1 (PAC 12’s North Division)  

Bowl Location: Glendale, Arizona … played @ the University of Phoenix Stadium, the seating capacity @ the facility is 72,200. Last year’s game which featured Oklahoma State and Stanford, was attended by 69,927 or 96.85% of U.P. Stadium’s capacity.

Day, Date, & Time: Thursday, 1/3/13 @ 7:30 p.m. CST

Network: ESPN

Best Wins: Kansas State: beat Miami, 52-13, Oklahoma, 24-19, Iowa state, 27-21, West Virginia, 56-16, Texas Tech, 55-24, Oklahoma State, 44-30, TCU, 23-10, & Texas, 42-24; Oregon: beat Fresno State, 42-25, Arizona, 49-0, Washington, 52-21, Arizona State, 42-21, USC, 62-51, & Oregon State, 48-24! These two teams (Oregon & KSU) have beaten more bowl eligible teams (14) than any other two teams playing one another in a 2012 bowl game …. except for the Alabama / Notre Dame game (17)!

Worst Losses: Kansas State: The Baylor loss, a 52-24 pounding that has kept them from a getting a shot @ the championship.  Oregon:  The loss to Stanford, 17-14 in OT, kept them out of the National Championship Game! These teams both experienced their only lost of the season on Novenber 17 … within minutes of one another!

Common Opponents: None

Las Vegas Hotsheet: Oregon -7.5

Offensive Team Data: Kansas State: Total Yards, 410 YPG; Passing Yards, 212 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 198 YPG; Scoring Average 41 PPG, Turnovers, 0.83 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 27.4%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 87% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 63% 

Offensive Team Data: Oregon: Total Yards, 550 YPG; Passing Yards, 226 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 324 YPG; Scoring Average 51 PPG, Turnovers, 1.58 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 47%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 90% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 83%

Defensive Team Data: Kansas State: Total Yards, 375 YPG; Passing Yards, 255 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 119 YPG; Scoring Average 21 PPG, Turnovers, 2.67 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 40.6%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 77% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 50%

Defensive Team Data: Oregon: Total Yards, 381 YPG; Passing Yards, 235 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 146 YPG; Scoring Average 22 PPG, Turnovers, 3.17 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 30.9%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 67% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone 48%

Sully’s Game Simulator: is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will perform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take Oregon’s total yards on offense, add it to what KSU gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking KSU’s total offense, add it to what the Ducks give up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards:  Advantage Oregon 463 to 296

Passing Yards: Advantage Oregon 241 to 224

Rushing Yards: Advantage Oregon 222 to 172

Scoring: Advantage Oregon 36 to 32

Turnovers: Advantage Kansas State 2 to 2.1

3rd Down Conversions: Advantage Oregon 44% to 29%

Red Zone All Scores: Advantage Oregon 84% to 77%

Red Zone TD’s Only: Advantage Oregon 67% to 56%

Individuals to Watch: Kansas State: QB Collin Kline has passed for 2,490 yards 15 TD’s 7 INT’s & has a completed 66% of his attempts. Kline has also rushed for 890 & 22 TD’s! Oregon: QB, Marcus Mariota has completed 70% of his passes for 2,511, 30 TD’s & 6 INT’s. He has also rushed for 690 & 4 TD’s! RB, Kenjon Barner, has rushed for 1624 yards, 21 TD’s, and averages 6.5 yards per carry! Finally De’ Anthony Thomas is a threat to take the the ball the distance any time he touched the rock!

Sully Says: This game could have easily been for the National Championship and along with the Texas A&M / Oklahoma match-up is generating a whole lot of interest! Look for the speed of Oregon to challenge Kansas State early in this game … as it is difficult to duplicate in practice. K-State struggled with Baylor’s up tempo style … wait till they get a load of the Duck’s pace! Sully’s CFP Says …. Oregon wins and covers the 7.5!