The Frisco Bowl is an annual National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) sanctioned post-season Division 1 Football Subdivision (FBS) college football bowl game played in Frisco, TX, since December 2017. Since 2019, it has been sponsored by Tropical Smoothie Cafe and known as the Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl, Destination XL Group was the original sponsor.

Teams:  Utah State (MWC) 7-5 / Kent State (MAC) 6-6 

Bowl Location: Frisco, TX

Day, Date & Time: Friday, December, 20, 2019, 7:30 EST

Network: ESPN 2

Best Win(s): Utah St: beat San Diego St. (9-3) 23-17; Kent St.: beat Buffalo (7-5), 30-13

Worst Loss(es): Utah St lost @ H to BYU (7-5) 42-14; Kent St lost @ Ohio (6-6), 45-38 

Common Opponents: None

Vegas Hot$heets Favorite: Utah State -8 (All lines are opening lines & all recommend picks are based on opening lines)

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is, say Notre Dame is playing Wisconsin … we take ND’s total yards on offense, add it to the number the Badgers give up on defense, we get a total and then divide the total by 2 to get an average. We then invert the process, we now take Wisconsin’s total offense, add it to what the Irish give up on defense, get a 2nd total, and then divide that number by 2, to get the second average! The greater number (with the exception of Turnovers, lower # wins) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed: 1) Total Yards, 2) Rushing, 3) Passing, 4) Scoring, 5) 3rd Down (Conversions /Stops), 6) Turnovers, 7) Red Zone Scores (TD’s & FG), & 8) Red Zone TD’s (only TD’s)!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

No Data, this is the 1st meeting between these teams!

Sully Says: Utah State wins on the game simulator, 5-3 (see above or go to the Game Simulator on the site for more info). The Simulator has a lot of data this time of year and one needs to focus on 4 areas (Rushing, Turnovers, who wins on 3rd down, & RZ performance, counting both FG/TD’s and then, counting only TD’s!

The Aggies will run the ball better than the Golden Flashes & performed better on 3rd down; while, the data says Flashes will out perform the Aggies, in 3 areas, 1) TO’s, 2) will score (FG / TD at a higher percentage when in the RZ & 3) score a higher %age of TD’s when penetrating the RZ!

Utah State plays in the Mountain West Conference (MWC), the 2nd best league behind the AAC (American) in the Group of 5, while the MAC may be the weakest league in the G5 this year (The Sun Belt’s, Appalachian St. & Louisiana are better that any team in the MAC) and C-USA is simply better than the MAC. 

It should be emphasized that Utah State’s numbers were earned in a better conference! Further, the Aggies played a tough Non-Conference (NC) schedule; LSU, 42-6 loss, BYU, 42-14 loss & Wake Forest, a 38-35 loss. The Aggies ended their season, winning 2 of their last 3 (they beat Wyoming, 26-21, & New Mexico, 38-25. & lost to Boise State, 56-21, between those 2 wins! 

That said, Kent State is on a 3 game win streak, beating Buffalo, 30-27,  Ball State, 41-38, & Eastern Michigan, 34-26, to end their season. They also played a challenging NC schedule, loosing to Arizona State, 30-6, Auburn, 55-16, & Wisconsin 48-0! 

Sully Says: The data is split on this game’s outcome, so go with the better conference where the numbers were earned: Take Utah State to win and cover!