Bowl History: The Valero Alamo Bowl …. the NCAA certified the Bowl in 1993 and the game has been played annually since that time! The first game in this bowl series took place on December, 31, 1993 … California beat Iowa, 37-3 while last years game featured, Texas and Oregon State, a game won by the Horns (Texas), 31-27! The Alamo Bowl has a great TV following ….. as it has produced 8 of ESPN’s top 20 most watched Bowl Games! Further, the Alamo Bowl has sold out 7 times in its 16 year history … Impressive …. given overall Bowl Attendance the past few years! Finally, the conference tie-ins are Big 12 /PAC 12 & the Bowl Pay out is $3,000,000.00!
Teams: Oregon: Conference Affiliation: PAC 12; Overall Record 10-2, Conference Record 7-2, Divisional Record 4-1 (PAC 12’s North Division) vs …. Texas: Conference Affiliation: Big 12; Overall Record 8-4, Conference Record: 7-2!
Bowl Location: San Antonio, Texas @ the Alamodome, the seating capacity @ the facility is 65,438. Last year’s game which featured Texas and Oregon State, was attended by 65,277 and increase of 21 fans!
Day, Date & Time: Monday, 12/30/2012 @ 5:45 p.m. CST
Network: ESPN
Best Win(s): Texas: beat Oklahoma, 36-20; Oregon: beat UCLA, 42-14
Worst Losses: Texas: BYU 40-21 Oregon: Arizona 42-16
Common Opponents: None
Las Vegas Hotsheet Favorite: Oregon -14
Offensive Team Data: Oregon; Total Yards, 586 YPG; Passing Yards, 300 YPG; Rushing Yards, 269 YPG; Scoring Average, 47 PPG, Turnovers, 1.75 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 43.4%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 79% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 69%
Offensive Team Data: Texas; Total Yards, 424 YPG; Passing Yards, 226 YPG; Rushing Yards, 198 YPG; Scoring Average 31 PPG, Turnovers, 1.67 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 41.4%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 90% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 57%
Defensive Team Data: Oregon; Total Yards, 386 YPG; Passing Yards, 212 YPG; Rushing Yards, 174 YPG; Scoring Average, 22 PPG, Turnovers, 2 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 41.3%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 82% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 55%
Defensive Team Data: Texas; Total Yards, 402 YPG; Passing Yards, 222 YPG; Rushing Yards, 180 YPG; Scoring Average, 26 PPG, Turnovers, 2.17 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 37.2%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 88% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 54%
Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take Texas’ total yards on offense, add it to what Oregon gives up on defense, … get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Oregon’s total offense, add it to what Texas gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2 to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed! That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:
Total Yards: Advantage, Oregon …. 494 to 405
Passing Yards: Advantage, Oregon …. 261 to 219
Rushing Yards: Advantage, Oregon …. 225 to 186
Scoring: Advantage, Oregon …. 37 to 27
Turnovers: Advantage, Texas … 1.84 to 1.96
3rd Down Conversions: Advantage, Texas … 41.35 to 40.30
Red Zone All Scores: Advantage, Texas … 86% to 83.5%
Red Zone TD’s Only: Advantage, Oregon … 62% to 56%
Individuals to Watch: Oregon: QB Marcus Moriota, 3412 passing yards, 30 TD’s & 4 INT’s, WR Josh Huff, 57 receptions, 1036 receiving yards, & 11 TD’s, RB Bryon Marshall, 155 attempts, 995 rushing yards, & 14TD’s, Texas: QB Case McCoy, 1885 passing yards, 11 TD’s, & 11 INT’s, RB Johnathan Gray, 159 attempts, 780 rushing yards, & 4 TD’s, & WR Mike Davis, 49 receptions, 715 receiving yards, & 8 TD’s
Sully CFP Says: Tonight’s game will have plenty of emotion … most notably, Mack Brown’s last game as Texas’ head coach. This fact will matter … in that Texas will compete to try to send Mack out with a win. This is something (play with fire) that Horns haven’t always done this year. Why it won’t matter is because Marcus Moriota is healthy … Texas will have no answer for this guy.! Oregon wins but will not cover the 14 points!
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