For the first time in Big Ten History we are going to experience a championship game, an excitement and a relevance in December that this conference has left to others…. until now. The long time kingpins of the conference, Ohio State and Michigan, are not the Leaders and Legends Divisional representatives; it’s Wisconsin and Michigan State squaring off in Indianapolis’ Lucas Oil Stadium. A crowd of 65,000 (small by conference standards) is expected at the Big Ten’s inaugural championship game. That said, the Indianapolis business community is expecting a $17,000,000.00 impact to the local economy, that is not a small number! The timing of the contest is perfect for the host city, Pacers are coming back for Christmas, (NBA returns on the 25th) a needed holiday season boast (actually more like blast), and the Super Bowl is set to kick off on February 5th, @ Lucas Oil, as well! Without a doubt, Indy is on a roll.
This is also good news for the Green Bay Packers, I remember the first Super Bowl, which was played on January 15, 1967, a 35-10 Packer victory! This February date suggests that in 50 years or so, the game will be played in March and warm enough for the Packers, not only to win, but to host @ Lambeau! Just a side thought!
Michigan State and Wisconsin are meeting for the second time this year. State won the first encounter, but it took a Spartan crowd, a Hail Mary, and not just instant replay… game ending instant replay for MSU to prevail. The 37-31 thriller will be hard to top and I, for one, do not anticipate the game to be that competitive this time around. Wisconsin is clearly the better team and here are the facts to back up that fact!
3rd Down Offense & Defense
Wisconsin is the #1 team in the nation on 3rd down conversions… not second or third… first baby… with a conversion rate over 55%, while Michigan State stumbles in as the 82nd best in the country, with a 35% conversion rate on third down attempts. The Spartans are going to have one heck of a time getting the Badgers offense off the field. But you say…HEY… those units are not on the field at the same time. You’re right …so let’s take a peek @ 3rd down defense.
Michigan State fields the 15th best 3rd down unit in all of FBS, allowing its opponent a 33% conversion rate; the Badgers are also very efficient on third down, allowing 1st down’s on just 36% of the attempts, for a ranking of 32nd best in America.
Considering 3rd down play on both sides of the ball… Advantage : Badgers
Red Zone Offense & Defense
Wisconsin is the 2nd best team in America (behind only Stanford) in Red Zone Offense, scoring 95% of the time when they enter the Red Zone and 86% of the time those scores are TD’s. Meanwhile, MSU is rated as the 67 best Red Zone Offense, putting points on the board 81% of the time with 60% of those scores being touchdowns.
On defending the Red Zone, the Spartans are the 15th best (identical to their 3rd down D) allowing scores 71% of the time with 53% of the scores being TD’s. The Badgers our the 43rd best Red Zone defenders, allowing scores 79% of the time when opponents enter their Red Zone with 54% being TD’s.
Wisconsin dominates Michigan State on the offensive side of these Red Zone statistics and are relatively close on scores given up and almost identical in allowing touchdowns. Advantage: Wisconsin
Total Offense & Total Defense
Wisconsin ranks 12 in the nation on offense averaging 477 YPG, (Yards Per Game) while Michigan State is 64/120, averaging 384 YPG. On Defense, the Spartans boast the third best in America, surrendering a mere 267 YPG, the Badgers, taking up the challenge, have the seventh best defense, allowing an anemic 278 YPG
Once Again… Advantage: Badgers
Scoring Offense & Scoring Defense
Here come the Badgers once again, putting up 45 PPG, (Points Per Game) the 4th best production in the country, the Spartans are averaging 30 PPG , ranking them 43/120. The Badgers are also fourth in the land in scoring defense, giving up 15.17 PPG with State right behind @ 15.42 PPG, rated as the 5th best scoring defense.
Wisconsin is ranked 4th on both sides of the scoreboard! Enough said! Advantage: Badgers
Turnovers: Offensive, Defensive & Margin
How good are these guys? Wisconsin has turned the ball over 8 times all year, you got it , they are ranked 1st in America (Tied with LSU… remember them?), the Spartans are careful with ball as well, having given it up 13 times all year. The Badgers are averaging 0.67 TPG (Turnovers Per game) while MSU loses the ball 1.08 times per game. In forcing Turnovers, the teams are both at 22, tied at 43/120!
In Turnover Margin, the Badgers are the 7th best in the country at a plus 1.17 (22 forced minus 8 lost = 14…. divided by 12 games = 1.17) while the Spartans are a plus .75 (22 forced minus 13 lost = 9 divided by 12 games = .75).
Once again…. Advantage: Badgers
This game should not have been close last time. Badgers 38 Michigan State 14
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