https://coachgordiegillespie.com/pat-sullivan/

Take a few minutes to listen to Pat Sullivan & Charlie Jett, while they discuss critical skill development & its implementation.

Charlie is an international certified coach, who specializes in Career Management, Skill Development, & Career Crises. Pat is a Hall of Fame Coach & Educational Leader, whose career spanned 44 years!

If you are serving your community in any manner of leadership or aspire to such, I can guarantee you that the few minutes you spend listening, to Charlie & Pat, will assist you to that end. In fact, the limited minutes you take to ‘tune in’, can have a life long impact on how to help others learn critical skill development and how best to implement in their lives and the lives of those they serve!

https://itsallaboutskills.com/?s=Pat+Sullivan

I don’t Know about you, but I think the best word in any human language is ‘Unknown’! I spent 46 years in education, the last 20 or so as an administrator and I wish I had a nickel for every time I answered a teacher or student question with, ‘I don’t know, let’s find out’! If I had that, ‘them nickels’, I would own 2/3’s of Wisconsin!

So with that in mind, one of the things I knew and then forgot about (forgetting is a lot like not knowing) was how QB ratings are determined in the college game, and then, how it differs (if it differs) from how it is determined at in the NFL? So I sat down today, after I got back from a visit with the grand kids, and now, it is no longer an unknown!

First let’s do college, after all this is a college football site! The NFL can get a number and get in line!

There are 7 steps to determine a QB rating via the NCAA formula:

1. The QB’s passing yards X 8.3
2. The number of TD’s the QB has thrown X 330
3. The Quarterback’s completions x 100
4. You now add A, B, & C to get a total!
5. Now factor in the INT’s the QB has thrown and X them by 200
6. You now subtract the INT total from your first total (steps 1, 2, & 3)!
7. You now divide the #6’s total, by the number of QB attempts (passes thrown)

Let’s take a few QB numbers and will do a walk through!

Alabama’s Mac Jones had the highest QB rating of any QB for the 2020 season. So here’s Mac!

1. Mac passed for 4500 yards, so we times it by 8.4 and our 1st number is 37,800.
2. Jones hit on 41 TD’s in 2020, we times the 41 by 330 and we now have our 2nd number, 13,530.
3. He hit his target (completions) 311 times, which we times by 100 and we arrive at our 3rd number, 31,100
4. We now add the three sub-totals together to get our first total, 82,430
5. Mac threw 4 INT’s which we times by 200 and get a second total of 800
6. we now subtract the 800 from our 1st total of, 82,430 and we have our final number, 81,630!
7. We now divide 81,630 by the number of attempts (passes thrown) Mac had in 2020, 402 attempts. Jones’ QB Rating was 203.06!

If you go to the web site listed below you will find Mac at the top of the page, listed at 203.06.

https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/individual/8

Let’s do another high profile QB this season, Ohio State’s, Justin Fields!

1. Fields passes for 2100 yards, so we times it by 8.4 and our 1st # is 17,640.
2. Justin threw for 22 TD’s in 2020, so we times 22 by 330 and we get a second number, 7,260.
3. He completed 158 passes which we multiply by 100 in our formula and we arrives at our 3rd number, 15,800.
4. We now add our sub-totals and we get our 1st composite total of 40,700.
5. Next we identify the number of INT Fields threw in the year of the Covid; he hit the wrong color jersey 6 times. Six picks times 200, equals 1200.
6. We now subtract 1200 from our 1st total of 40,700 and we end up with 39,500.
7. Finally, we divide 39,700 by the number of passes Justin threw in 2020, 225 / into 39,500 . Fields QBR was 175.56 / 10th best in the country!

Finally, since Sully’s College Football Page (SCFP) is located in Wisconsin, let’s take a peek at our own QB, Graham Mertz.

1. Graham passed for 1,238 yards and as before, we times the number by 8.4, which equates to 10,399.2.
2. Mertz threw 9 TD’s, which we times by 330 to get a total of 2,970.
3. He completed 118 passes and in our formula, we multiply the 118 by 100 and get our 3rd sub-total of 11,800.
4. The 3 sub-totals equal a composite score of 25,169.2
5. Graham threw 5 INT’s, times 200 and we end up at 1,000.
6. We now subtract 1000 from 25,169.2 and our final total is 24,169.2
7. Mertz passed the ball 193 times in 2020, which we divide into 24,169.2 and we arrive at Mertz’s QBR of 125.23 or 79th best in the nation!

The NFL system seems much more involved, at least to a Mental Math Midget like myself!

1. The NFL takes a QB’s completions and divides them by his attempts (passes thrown), it then subtracts from that number by 0.3, and then times the quotient by 5. This gives you your 1st number.
2. In their 2nd step , they divide a QB total passing yards by, again, their attempts. They now subtract 3 from the passing yards/by attempts from the quotient, and then times that number by 0.25.
3. In step three, they divide the QB’s TD passes by his total attempts and then times that number by 20.
4. You take 2.375 and hold on to it, while you complete the what is in the brackets 1st. U divide INT’s by attempts, times that number by 25, and then subtract the 2.375!
5. You take the 4 sub-totals listed above, add them together, divide the total by 6 and then times that number by 100. You now have your QB rating

Ok, let’s do a NFL QB to see if I can unconfused you! How about we do GB’s Aaron Rogers .

1. Rogers completed 372 passes / attempted 526 = 0.707, we now subtract 0.3 which leaves us with 0.407. Now we times the 0.407 number by 5 and we have our 1st number, 2.036
2. Aaron passed for 4299 yards in 2020, so we divide that number by his attempts, 526, and we get 8.17 YPA. We now subtract 3 and we are left with 5.17 which we now multiply by 0.25 and we get our 2nd number of 1.29.
3. In the NFL’s 3rd step, we divide TD’s by, again, attempts. Rogers threw 48 Touchdowns which we divide by his attempts of 526, this leaves us with 0.091. Now we multiply the 0.091 by 20 and we get a response of 1.825
4. In our fourth phase, we take a look at INT’s and find that Rodgers threw 5 picks in 2020, again we divide by attempts, 526 and we arrive at 0.0095. In the NFL’s Formula, you now multiply this number (0.0095) by 25 and get 0.237, which we subtract 2.375 and get our fourth number of 2.138
5. We now add our 4 totals together, 2.036, 1.293, 1.825, & 2.138 = 7.292. We then divide by 6 which = 1.21 & X by 100 = our QB rating for Rodgers of 121.5

In the likelihood , you doubt my findings (I did as well) here is a site that shows you Rodgers QBR.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/player/aaron-rodgers

I was asked about this yesterday and while I used to do this back in 2009 & 2010, I really had little to nothing to offer how the NCAA / NFL Formulas worked and or how they were different Not anymore!

Enjoy the NFL Games, should be great one’s on Saturday & Sunday!

These insights on Attitude, using the word as an acronym, were presented by Coach Sullivan at Notre Dame’s ‘Play like a champion Today’ Summer Seminar celebrating Leadership!

I would encourage you to take a few minutes out of your day, to listen and then integrate a few of these concepts on attitude into your daily life!

I can assure you, that not only you will benefit from what is shared here but more importantly, it will assist you in making a positive difference for those people, who you are in contact with on a daily basis.

https://coachpatsullivan.com/

Ball State 2-1 @ Toledo 2-1; TV: 11:00 / ESPN 3; Favorite: Toledo -8.5; These teams play in the same division, the MAC West. Since 2009, the teams have met 11 times, with Toledo having won 8 of those meetings! This includes 5 straight, until 2019, when the Cardinals put a tail whipping on the Rockets, 52-14! Toledo was the preseason favorite to win the West Division. Ball State lost its opener to Miami OH, 38-31 and then beat Eastern Michigan, by the identical score, 38-31 & Northern Illinois, 31-25. While Toledo hammered Bowling Green in their opener, 38-3 and then blew a 10 point lead (38-28) in the last 2:10, losing to Western Michigan, 41-38! Last week the Rockets handled Eastern Michigan, 45-28! SCFP Game Simulator likes Toledo in 6 of 8 Categories assessed (Total Yards, Passing Yards, Rushing Yards, Scoring, Turnovers, 3rd Down Conversion, Red Zone Scores, & Red Zone TD’s) Ball State outperforms Toledo, by the numbers, only in RZ scores (TD’s & FG’s) and RZ TD’s! Sully Says: Take Toledo and give State the 8.5!

Northwestern 5-0 @ Michigan State 1-3; TV: 2:30 NBC, Favorite: NW -11. I, for one, am done underestimating Northwestern in 2020! The Cats have forced 15 TO’s (4 fumble recoveries & 11 INT’s) in 5 games, while the Spartans have coughed the ball up 14 times in 4 games! Not looking good for Sparty! The teams have one common opponent, Iowa; MSU was blasted by the Hawks, 49-7, in Iowa City, while NW went to the same venue and beat Iowa, 21-20! The Wildcats are coming off an emotional win over Wisconsin, 17-7, meanwhile, the Spartans have had a week to think about their last 2 games, both losses, the Iowa game and their 24-0 loss to Indiana, on November, 14th! Sully Says: Take the Cats and give the Spartans the 11 points, even @ Spartan Stadium!

Maryland 2-1 @ Indiana 4-1; TV: 11:00 / ESPN 2; Favorite: IU -15: The last four games between these teams have been one score outcomes. In 2016, the Hoosiers won, 42-36; in 2017, Maryland won, 42-39; 2018, IU won, 34-32; and in last year’s game, Indiana won again, 34-28! I like the 15 points based on the recent history of this game. Maryland opened 2020, by getting hammered by Northwestern 43-3, since then, they have won 2 straight, beating Minnesota, 45-44 & then they beat Penn State, by 16, 35-19! IU opened the 2020 season 4-0, with wins over PSU, 36-35 in OT, a 37-21 win over Rutgers, the Hoosiers then took down Wolverines, 38-21, & shut-out Michigan State, 24-0! Tommy Allen’s team then suffered their 1st lost, to Ohio State, 42-35! The Terps QB, Taulia Tagovailoa, has led Maryland’s offense to 80 points in the last 2 games. Sully Says: IU wins; but does not cover the 15, its Maryland and the points that carry the day!

Auburn 5-2 @ Alabama 7-0; TV: 2:30 / CBS; Favorite: Bama -24: Since 2009, only 3 of the 11 winners of the Iron Bowl would have covered the 24 points. In 2011, Alabama won 42-14, the Tide won again in 2012, 49-0, & in 2018, Roll Tide Roll, this time, 52-21. It was always Bama that covered the 24, twice in Tuscaloosa (2012 & 2018) and once @ Auburn (2011)! Alabama is averaging 49 points per game (PPG) 3rd best in the country and surrendering only 19 PPG, while Auburn is giving up only 22 PPG, its scoring 29 PPG leaves a spread of 7 points, from what is scored to what is allowed, to Bama’s 30!. Alabama’s margin of victory, after 7 games, is 25.7. The Tide is converting 54% on 3rd down, while Auburn is allowing 3rd down conversions @ the alarming rate of 52.1% of the time (119th in the country), Simply put, the Tigers are going to struggle to get Bama off the field! Sully Says: take the Tide and give the War Eagles the 24!

And as always. Enjoy the Games!

Last week Sully’s College Football Page (SCFP) went 2 and 2 vs the Spread!

We took Indiana and the 19.5 vs Ohio State, IU had a shot to win or tie, the Hoosiers had the ball, down 42-35, with 2 minutes to play! The Bucks held up and won the game 42-35, yet were no where near covering the 19 and a half. SCFP 1-0!

In our second game, we took Wisconsin -7 vs Northwestern. The Badgers outgained the Cats, 366 to 263, Bucky was a plus 103 total yards (Rushing: UW 136 / NU 24 yards & Passing: NW 239 / UW 230). Both teams struggled on 3rd down; UW 3/16 (18.75%) while NW was 2/15 (13.33%). The two statistical elements that turned the flow of this game in the favor of Northwestern were penalties NW 1 for 5 yards to UW 8-69 and the most significant stat was Turnovers, the Wildcats forced Bucky into 5 TO’s while dropping the ball just once! Northwestern 17 Wisconsin 7. An SCFP loss, 1 an 1 in week 12!

Our 3rd pick, was Oklahoma State, plus 9.5, vs OU. We liked the Pokes based on common opponents, the Cowboys had beaten Iowa State & Kansas State, two teams that had beaten OU! Another common opponent, Texas, OU beat the Horns in triple OT, 53-45, OSU lost to Texas, 41-34, in OT. We predicted an OU win but thought they would not cover the spread! Wrong! The OSU defense has been one of the most discussed units in the B-12 regarding their improvement, their D did not show up!! OU outgained the Pokes 492 to 246, holding the Cowboys rushing attack to a pathetic, 78 yards! Final OU 41 OSU 13. SCFP is now 1-2 in week 12!

In our 4th pick, we took USC and gave Utah the 2.5 points! SC dominated the LOS on the defensive side of the ball, holding the Utes to 93 yards rushing, while winning the TO battle, 5 to 2! The Trojans were also better on 3rd down, 5/13 (38.465) to Utah’s 3/11 (27.27%) USC won and covered, 33-17! SCFP 2nd win of the weekend, leaving us at 2 & 2 for the week and for the year 16-13-1!

Here is our Friday special, ND @ UNC, Our 4 Pack will be out tomorrow!

Notre Dame 8-0 / 7-0 @ North Carolina 6-2 / 6-2 TV: 2:30 / ABC; Favorite: ND -3.5. Since 2009, the teams have only played twice, ND has won both games; in 2014, ND 50 UNC 43 and in 2017, the Irish won 33-10. Notre Dame leads the series 18 wins to 1 defeat (1960, 12-7 @ Chapel Hill). It should be noted, the Tar Heels did beat the Irish in 2008, 29-24, but the win was vacated by the NCAA, in fact, all UNC wins in 2008 & 2009 were vacated for NCAA violations!

In my view, this is the best game of the weekend. Ok here we go!

ND has lost 40% of its Offensive Line, RG, Tommy Kramer & Center, Jarrett Patterson are out, Kraemer (Appendicitis/will be back in 2020) & Patterson (foot/lost for year). This will test the Irish’s depth, as they must be able to run the ball, which, in this game, will have the added benefit of keeping that powerful Heel offense sitting on the side line!

UNC has star power everywhere on offense; QB, Sam Howell , 2nd in the country in passing TD, with 23; two RB’s, Javonte Williams, 5th in the country in rushing yards, with 886 & Michael Carter, 9th, with 807 rushing yards! Their WR’s are terrific, Dyami Brown is 4th in the nation, with 829 receiving yards & Dazz Newsome, ranked 50th, with 455 receiving yards.

While all of these individual are out performing their Irish counterparts, when you look at the teams as a whole, you get a different perspective! UNC & ND have rushed, to this point in the season, for an identical 233.5 YPG. ND runs the ball more by committee, Kyren Williams, Chris Tyree, C’Bo Flemister & Ian Book!

On defense, ND (5th best rushing D) allows a meager 85.1 YPG, while the Heels (ranked 54th) allow 151.9! UNC has the 14th best passing offense (329.9 YPG) in the country, while ND is 68th, averaging 228.8 YPG. In 2 games this year, UNC passed for 993 yards, 550 yards (Wake Forest) a 59-52 win & 443 yards (Virginia) in a 44-41 loss! ND has held 6 of their 8 opponents under 100 yards rushing and has allowed only one team, Clemson, to pass for over 300 yards. ND gives up 219.0 YPG, while UNC allows 261.8 YPG!

This game comes down to 1st; ND’s ability to run the ball/stop the run and 2nd, their ability to pressure Howell in the throw game. The ND rush defense held Clemson’s, Travis Etienne to 34 yards rushing, so it is likely, UNC will struggle to run the ball vs the Irish front 7. And finally, ND QB, Ian Book has played lights out in 2020, the Irish will need Book to play, at least, as well as he played vs Clemson, if they are to take down North Carolina in Chapel Hill!

Sully Says: Take ND and give UNC the 3.5 in Chapel Hill! However, do not take the betting dollars out of Thanksgiving week’s Sunday offering, this one will be tight!

And as always, Enjoy the games!

Last week we went 3-1! We took ND -13 @ BC, Wisconsin -2.5 @ the Big House vs Michigan, & Miami FL +2.5 @ VT, The Canes won outright, while the Irish & the Badgers won and covered! USC won, but did not cover, our sole loss!

Sully’s College Football Page began last week @ 11-11-1 vs the Spread. Our 3-1 record leaves us @ 14-11-1 for 2020 and of course, we like to remind everyone, we began the season 0-3, with one game cancelled do to Covid-19! That translates to 14 wins in our last 23 picks!

Here are this weeks picks. Please note: SCFP picks are based on the opening lines of the Vegas Hot$heets. http://www.vegashotsheet.com/LiveLines-NCAA.html . So here we go!!

Indiana 4-0 @ Ohio State 3-0, TV: 11:00 / Fox; Favorite: OSU -19.5 The Bucks have beaten the Hoosiers 24 straight time (25 if you count the 2011 game, a 34-20 OSU win that was vacated). The Bucks lead the overall series, 75-12-5 and hammered IU last year, 51-10, @ Indiana’s Memorial Stadium. In three of the last five games, the Buckeyes did not cover the spread identified in bold (2015, Bucks won, 34-27 line -22; 2016, OSU 38 IU 17 spread OSU -28; 2017 Ohio won, 49-21, line Bucks -20, 2018, State won, 49-26, Line was Bucks -26; 2019, OSU won again, 51-10, Line was -17), In fact, OSU is 0-5 Against The Spread (ATS) in their last 5 @ home vs the Hoosiers! Sully says: A shocked, take IU and the 19.5 in the Shoe, the Bucks win but do not cover for the 6th straight time!

Wisconsin 2-0 @ Northwestern 4-0; TV: 2:30 / ABC; Favorite: Bucky -6.5. Last time the Badgers were in Evanston (2018) they were ranked 10th in the AP and trailed the ‘Cats at half, 14-10. NW then scored 17 unanswered points to carry the day, a 31-17 Northwestern victory! Wisconsin has been the favorite in every game they have played vs Wildcats since 1988. during that time, Bucky has a surprising low, 14 wins in those 25 games that they were favored vs Northwestern. This translates to NW winning straight-up (w/o points), 11 times in the 25 games played since that 1988 game. From 2009 forward, the teams have played 9 times with the Badgers holding a slight edge, 5 wins to 4 losses! The UW has won 3 of the last 4 games by victory margin that would have covered the 6.5 in each of those wins! Sully Says; this game is must see TV, take Bucky, Mertz, & Badger Defense and give the Cats the 6.5 @ home!

Oklahoma St 5-1/4-1 @ Oklahoma 5-2/4-2; TV: 6:30 / ABC; Favorite: OU -9.5. In the last five years vs OSU, OU is 5-0 straight up & 4-1 ATS. OSU current coach, Mike Gundy has coached in the Bedlam Game 15 times and has only managed to win twice. These facts all seem to point to going with OU in this game, but in the words of Lee Corso, “Not so fast my friend”! OU has lost to both Iowa State, 37-30 & Kansas State, 38-35, while the Cowboys, beat ISU, 24-21 & Kansas State, 20-18. OSU’s only loss this season, was to Texas, 41-34 in overtime, compared to OU win over Texas, 53-45, in 3 OTs’. Sully Says: 9.5 is to many points in this game, take OSU and the points, OU may very well win this game but they will not cover!

USC 2-0 @ Utah 0-0: TV: 9:30 / ESPN; Favorite: USC -2.5. We have picked USC to cover 11 & 13 point spreads the past 2 weeks and while they have won, they did not cover in either game! So why are we back involving the ‘Men of Troy’ for a third straight week? For the following reasons; the Trojans are giving the Utes 2.5 points, SC is unbeaten in 2020, and Utah has yet to play a game in 2020. USC has won 3 of the last 5 games these teams have played since 2015. Sully Says: take SC and give the Utes the 2.5 in their 1st game of 2020!

SCFP is 11-11-1 vs the spread! We started 0-3 and have been 11-8-1 in our last 20 picks!

ND 7-0 @ BC 5-3: This game will be played with a ton of adrenalin from both sided of the field. The difference will be ND’s ability to run the ball and stop the run! Sully Says: take ND and give BC the 13 points!

USC 1-0 @ Arizona 0-0: We took the Trojans last week and while they did not cover, they scored 14 points in the last couple of minutes to pull out a 28-27 win over Arizona State. Look for the Men of Troy to pick up where they left off last week! Sully says; take Troy and give the Wildcats the 13 points!

Wisconsin 1-0 @ Michigan 1-2: The Badgers have not played a game in 20 plus days and Michigan, at some level, wishes they hadn’t played a game in the last 20 days! The Wolves have lost their past two outings, MSU beat them, 27-24 and Indiana popped ’em, 38-21! The line opened with Bucky giving U of M 2.5 points! Sully says; take the Badgers and give the Wolverines the 2.5 points @ home!

Miami 5-1 @ VT 4–3: The Canes have beaten the Hokies in 4 of the last 5 meetings! This includes the last two years, 28-10 in 2018 and in 2019, the hurricanes blasted V-Tech, 38-14, in Blacksburg! The last 7 games have been decided by double digits, with VT’s last win coming in 2016, 37-16! Sully says: Take Miami and the 2.5 points!

Enjoy the Games!

Miami 5-1 @ VT 4-3;. TV: 11:00 / ESPN; Favorite: VT-2.5

Penn State 0-3 @ Nebraska 0-2: TV: 11:00 / FS1; Favorite: PSU -3

TCU 3-3 @ West Virginia 4-3; TV: 11:00 / FOX; Favorite: WV -3

ND 7-0 @ BC 5-3; TV: 2:30 / ABC; Favorite: ND -13

USC 1-0 @ Arizona 0-0: TV: 2:30 / FOX; Favorite: USC -13

Colorado 0-1 @ Stanford 1-0: TV: 2:30 / ESPN; Favorite: Stanford -6

Northwestern 3-0 @ Purdue 2-0: TV: 4:00 / BTN; Favorite: Pick ’em Game

Arkansas 3-3 @ Florida 4-1; TV: 6:00 / ESPN; Favorite: Florida -17

Wisconsin 1-0 @ Michigan 1-2; TV: 6:30 / ABC; Favorite: UW -2.5

15 Games are have been canceled in week 11 do to Covid-19 outbreaks!

All lines are from the Vegas Hot$heets and all are opening lines!