Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl

Bowl History: This Bowl began in 2008 (formally known as the magicJack Saint Petersburg Bowl) today the official name of the bowl  is … St.Petersburg Bowl presented by Beef ‘O’ Brady. The first game was played between South Florida & Memphis on 12/20/2008, a game won by USF, 41-14! The defending champ, Marshall, beat Florida International, 20-10 in last year’s (2011) game! The bowl tie-ins are … Big East & Conference-USA (with the MAC or SUN Belt as back ups) when teams from these respective leagues are available for selection. Bowl Payout …. $500,000.00 per team!

Teams: Central Florida; Conference-USA, Overall Record, 9-4, Conference Record, 7-1 (Lost Conference Championship Game … so 7-2), Divisional Record, West Division 5-0 …  vs …. Ball State; Mid-American Conference (MAC) Overall Record 9-3, Conference Overall Record, 6-3, Divisional Record; West Division 4-1

Bowl Location: The game is played at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida. The stadium was originally designed for baseball and has housed the Tampa Bay Rays (Formally known as the Devil Rays) since their inaugural season of 1998! The highest attended game (28,793) was the second of four Beef ‘O’ Brady Bowls played thus far; in that game, UCF (Central Florida) was hammered by Rutgers, 41-24, on December 19, 2009! The capacity of Tropicana Field is 43,772!

Day, Date, & Time: Friday, December 21, 2012, @ 6:30 p.m. CST

Network: ESPN

Best Wins: Central Florida: The only team that UCF beat that had a winning record in 2012 was East Carolina, 8-5, whom they pounded, 40-20! Ball State: Beat Indiana, 41-39, out of the Big 10, got by South Florida, 31-27, from the Big East … two opponents from BCS Conferences … The Cardinals also beat a 9-3 Toledo, 34-37 and an 8-4 Ohio, 52-27!

Worst Losses: Central Florida: Tulsa …. twice … 23-21 in the regular season and an overtime affair, 33-27 in C-USA Championship Game! UCF stepped up twice to take on BCS opponents and were knocked back both times … Ohio State, 31-13 & Missouri, 21-16! Ball State: NIU (Northern Illinois) 35-23 and Kent State, 45-43 … these two losses stopped them from being in the MAC Championship Game! B-State was also man-handled by Clemson, 52-27!

Common Opponents: None!

Las Vegas Hotsheet: Opened and Remained at UCF -7

Offensive Team Data: Central Florida: Total Yards, 401 YPG; Passing Yards, 222 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 179 YPG; Scoring Average 35 PPG, Turnovers, 1.23 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 47.1%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 84% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 71% 

Offensive Team Data: Ball State: Total Yards, 471 YPG; Passing Yards, 257 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 214 YPG; Scoring Average 35 PPG, Turnovers, 1.33 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 47.8%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 85% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 61%

Defensive Team Data: Central Florida: Total Yards, 380 YPG; Passing Yards, 219 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 162 YPG; Scoring Average 22 PPG, Turnovers, 1.92 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 41%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 73% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 57%

Defensive Team Data: Ball State: Total Yards, 460 YPG; Passing Yards, 254 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 206 YPG; Scoring Average 32 PPG, Turnovers, 1.17 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 41.9%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 84% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 67%

Sully’s Game Simulator:  is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take UCF’s total yards on offense, add it to what Ball State gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Ball State’s total offense, add it to what UCF gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards:  Advantage UCF 431 to 426

Passing Yards: Advantage  Neither 238 to 238

Rushing Yards: Advantage UCF 193 to 188

Scoring: Advantage UCF 34 to 29

Turnovers: Advantage UCF 1.2 to 1.6

3rd Down Conversions: Advantage UCF 44.5% to 44.4%

Red Zone All Scores: Advantage UCF 84% to 79%

Red Zone TD’s Only: Advantage UCF 69% to 59%

Individuals to Watch: Keith Wenning, Ball Sate QB, passed for 2,878 yards, 10.32 Yards Per Completion, 22 TD’s, 10 INT’s & a 65% completion rate. Jahwan Edwards, Ball State, RB, rushed for 1,321 Yards, 14 TD’s, 6.06 Yards Per Attempt & 110 yards per game. Quincy McDuffie, Kick-off returner from UCF, leads the nation with 17 returns for 582 total yards, average return … 34.24 yards and has taken 3 to the house (Touchdowns)

Sully Says: Sully’s CFP Game Simulator really likes UCF in this game … so do we! The Knights will out athlete the Cardinals and C-USA is typically / consistently a better league than the MAC   .. although … this is the best depth the MAC has had in along while and, in fact, their league (MAC) may be as good or even better this year than C-USA. That said, I saw Central Florida’s games with OSU and Missouri and they played right with them and could have won either of those games. Sully’s CFP Says UCF will beat a pesky Ball State and cover the 7 points!