Sully's Big Blog! Commentary on College Football, Weekly Games, And Strange Statistics!

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl

Bowl History: This bowl was established in 2001 with Wyndham Hotels & Resorts sponsoring the game from 2002 through 2004, during that time the bowl was officially known as the Wyndham New Orleans Bowl. In 2005, due to damage by Hurricane Katrina, the Superdome was unavailable and the game site was moved to Cajun Field on the University of Louisiana Lafayette’s Campus. In 2006, R&L Carriers took over sponsorship and have presented the Bowl to/through the present!.  The inaugural game was played on December 18, 2001, Colorado State beat North Texas, 45-20. The defending champ from the 2011 rendition is UL Lafayette, who beat San Diego State, 32-30, in front of the largest crowd to attend any of Wyndham or R&L New Orleans Bowls, ….. 42, 841! The Mercedes-Benz Superdome capacity is 73,208.  Conference Tie-ins, Sun Belt & C-USA (Mountain West back-up)  and payout per team is $500.000.00!

Teams: East Carolina: Conference, C-USA, Overall Record 8-4, Conference Record 7-1, Divisional Record 4-1 vs Louisiana Lafayette: Conference, Sun Belt; Overall Record, 8-4; Conference Record 6-2 … Sun Belt does not have Divisional play!

Bowl Location: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, in New Orleans, Louisiana is the home site of the game . R&L Carriers, the sponsor of the bowl, is a global transportation service company. As mentioned, the game has been played every year at the Superdome since its conception in 2001, with the lone exception of 2005, due to damage …done to the Superdome by Hurricane Katrina!

Day, Date, & Time: Saturday, 12/22/2012 @ 11:00 A.M.

Network: ESPN

Best Wins: East Carolina: Other than their win over Appalachian State (an 8-4 FCS Team) 35-13, the Pirates did not beat a FBS team that posted a winning record in 2012. Not one! Louisiana Lafayette: Beat  ULM (8-4), 40-24 an in-state rival (ULM beat Arkansas 34-31 in OT and lost to Auburn 31-28 in OT) got by Western Kentucky (7-5), 31-27. Both ULM & WKU are preparing to play in bowl games!

Worst Losses: EC played four teams with winning records and were hammered in everyone of these games, South Carolina, 48-10, North Carolina, 27-6, Navy, 56-28, & conference foe, UCF, 40-20! ULL loss to North Texas (4–8), 30-23, was a surprise to say the least! The Cajuns were pounded by Oklahoma State, 65-24 & Sun Belt Champion, Arkansas State, 50-27!

Common Opponents: Tulane: ULL pounded the Green Wave, 41-13 …. while East Carolina squeaked by TU, 28-23!

Las Vegas Hotsheet:The line opened with ULL giving 4.5 … now at -6 due to money flow…

Offensive Team Data: East Carolina: Total Yards, 408 YPG; Passing Yards, 273 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 135 YPG; Scoring Average 31 PPG, Turnovers, 1.75 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 44.3%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 92% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 71%

Offensive Team Data: Louisiana: Total Yards, 444 YPG; Passing Yards, 256 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 187 YPG; Scoring Average 35 PPG, Turnovers, 1.67 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 37.8%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 94% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 77%

Defensive Team Data: East Carolina: Total Yards, 417 YPG; Passing Yards, 272 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 146 YPG; Scoring Average 31 PPG, Turnovers, 1.67 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 39.9%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 81% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 62%

Defensive Team Data: Louisiana: Total Yards, 428 YPG; Passing Yards, 284 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 144 YPG; Scoring Average 28 PPG, Turnovers, 1.67 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 41.8%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 88% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 59%

Sully’s Game Simulator: is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take EC’s total yards on offense, add it to what ULL gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Louisiana’s total offense, add it to what East Carolina gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards:  Advantage Louisiana  431 to 418

Passing Yards: Advantage East Carolina 279 to 264

Rushing Yards: Advantage Louisiana 167 to 140

Scoring: Advantage Louisiana 33 to 30

Turnovers: Advantage Louisiana 1.67 to 1.71

3rd Down Conversions: Advantage East Carolina 43.05% to 38.85%

Red Zone All Scores: Advantage East Carolina 90% to 88%

Red Zone TD’s Only: Advantage Louisiana 70% to 65%

Individuals to Watch: East Carolina’s QB, Shane Carden, passed for 2,838 yards, 21 TD’s, 9 INT’s and completed 67% of his passes. EC’s RB, Vintavious Cooper, has rushed for 1, 030, scored 7 TD’s, & averages 5.4 yards per carry! Louisiana’s Free Safety, Rodney Giles, is among the nation’s leaders in interceptions with 5 this season. ULL’s QB, Terrance Broadway has passed for 2,526 yards, 16 TD’s, 8 INT’s & completed 65.4 % of his passes. Broadway is also a threat to run … rushing for 661 yards this season!

Sully Says: Just cannot exercise the fact from my mind that EC has not beaten a single FBS team with a winning record in 2012! Seven of their eight wins came against teams that that were at or below 500 and their lone win against a team with a winning record was recorded vs an FCS (63 scholarship program) team, Appalachian State! East Carolina is 5-7 all time in bowl games, their last win was in 2007, @ the Hawaii Bowl on a last second FG vs Boise State! EC has lost three straight bowl games since that last second kick! These teams have met ten times with ULL winning six of these encounters! In Fact, the last time EC beat ULL, 20-10 … was in 1990 ( actually that’s last time they played) when ULL was not ULL but rather … known as Southwestern Louisiana. Sully Says … Truth is often a simple thing.   ULL is a better club than EC ….  and will not only beat the Pirates … Louisiana will cover the 6 points …and then some!

This entry was posted in 2012 / 2013 Bowl Game, Arkansas State, C-USA, North Carolina, Oklahoma State, South Carolina, Sun Belt, ULM. Bookmark the permalink.

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