Boca Raton Bowl

Bowl History: The Boca Raton Bowl is a National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) sanctioned Division I football bowl game played in Boca Raton, Florida at FAU Stadium, which is located on the campus of FAU. The bowl was founded on October 10, 2013, and was first played as part of the 2014 schedule of postseason bowl games. The bowl game will be televised by ESPN. The Mid-American Conference (MAC) is scheduled to be the primary conference involved in the Boca Raton Bowl until 2019. The Northern Illinois Huskies were chosen as the conference’s first representative. C-USA was contracted to provide a team for the 2014 playing and the conference sent its champion, the Marshall Thundering Herd. Both the MAC and C-USA did not have automatic bowl bids for their champions entering 2014; C-USA lost its contract with the Liberty Bowl while the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl, which usually took the MAC champion, was discontinued after its 2013 playing and the GoDaddy Bowl, which takes a MAC team and has the option to take the conference champion if it desires, elected to take Toledo instead. The AAC is to provide a team to the Boca Raton Bowl in 2015. Other NCAA FBS conferences are expected to send teams to the bowl in alternating years after that, but these have yet to be announced. The bowl game is owned and operated by ESPN Events, and is televised by ESPN as part of its annual “Bowl Week”. On October 6, 2015, Marmot was announced as the title sponsor of the game.

Teams: Memphis 8-4 (AAC) vs Western Kentucky 10-3 (C-USA)

Bowl Location: FAU Stadium, Boca Raton, Florida

Day, Date & Time: Tuesday, December 20, 2016, 6:00 p.m. CST

Network: ESPN

Best Win(s): Memphis beat Houston, 48-44 & AAC Champ, Temple, 34-27, WK beat Louisiana Tech in the C-USA Championship Game, 58-44!

Worst Losses: Memphis only loss to a team that did not have a winning record was to Ole Miss, 48-28; Western Kentucky lost in OT to Vanderbilt, 31-30

Common Opponents: None

Vegas Hotsheets Favorite: Western Kentucky -5

Offensive Team Data: Memphis ; Total Yards, 461 YPG; Passing Yards, 295 YPG; Rushing Yards, 167 YPG; Scoring Average, 40 PPG, Turnovers, 1.17 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 41.2%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 80% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 65%

Offensive Team Data: Western Kentucky ; Total Yards, 517 YPG; Passing Yards, 302 YPG; Rushing Yards, 216 YPG; Scoring Average 45 PPG, Turnovers, 1.62 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 45.9%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 86% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 65%

Defensive Team Data: Memphis; Total Yards, 443 YPG; Passing Yards, 243 YPG; Rushing Yards, 200 YPG; Scoring Average, 27 PPG, Turnovers, 2.58 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 37.9%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 82% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 50%

Defensive Team Data: Western Kentucky ; Total Yards, 368 YPG; Passing Yards, 262 YPG; Rushing Yards, 105 YPG; Scoring Average, 24 PPG, Turnovers, 1.38 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 38.1%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 86% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 58%

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take WK’s total yards on offense, add it to what Memphis gives up on defense, … get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Memphis’s total offense, add it to what WK gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2 to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed! That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards Advantage: WK 480 to 414.5

Passing Yards Advantage: Memphis 278.5 to 272.5

Rushing Yards Advantage: WK 208 to 136

Scoring Advantage: WK 36-32

Turnovers Advantage: Memphis 1.275 to 2.1

3rd Down Conversions Advantage: WK 41.9% to 39.65%

Red Zone All Scores Advantage: WK 84% to 83%

Red Zone TD’s Only Advantage: Memphis 61.5% to 57.5

Simulator Says: WK will outperform Memphis in 5 of the 8 Categories assessed

Individuals to Watch: WK QB Mike White 34/6 ratio TD’s to INT’s. 4027 Yards Passing; Memphis QB, Riley Ferguson 28/9 Ratio , 3326 Yards Passing

Sully Says: This should be an entertaining game, if I were a betting man, I would stay away from this one. That said, take Memphis and the 5 points