Sully's Big Blog! Commentary on College Football, Weekly Games, And Strange Statistics!

Miami Beach Bowl

Bowl History: The Miami Beach Bowl is a National Collegiate Athletic Association  (NCAA) sanctioned Division I College Football bowl game first played on December 22, 2014 in Miami Florida at Marlins Park. BYU played in the inaugural Miami Beach Bowl against the American Athletic Conference co-champion Memphis Tigers. The Miami Beach Bowl marked the Cougars first appearance in a Florida bowl in nearly 30 years, since the 1985 Citrus Bowl in Orlando, while the Tigers returned to Florida for its first bowl game since the 2008 St. Petersburg Bowl.

Teams: Central Michigan vs Tulsa

Bowl Location: Marlins Park, Miami Florida

Day, Date & Time: Monday, December 19, 2016; 1:30 CST

Network: ESPN

Best Win(s): Tulsa beat Memphis (8-4), 59-30; CMU beat Oklahoma State (9-3), 30-27

Worst Losses: Tulsa lost to Ohio State, 48-3, CMU lost to Kent (3-9), 27-24

Common Opponents: None

Vegas Hotsheets Favorite: Tulsa -12.5

Offensive Team Data: Central Michigan ; Total Yards, 395 YPG; Passing Yards, 276 YPG; Rushing Yards, 119 YPG; Scoring Average, 28 PPG, Turnovers, 1.75 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 42%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 73% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 62%

Offensive Team Data: Tulsa ; Total Yards, 522 YPG; Passing Yards, 265 YPG; Rushing Yards, 257 YPG; Scoring Average 41 PPG, Turnovers, 1.92 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 45.1%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 90% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 60%

Defensive Team Data: Central Michigan ; Total Yards, 376 YPG; Passing Yards, 215 YPG; Rushing Yards, 161 YPG; Scoring Average, 28 PPG, Turnovers, 1.5 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 39.7%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 77% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 62%

Defensive Team Data: Tulsa ; Total Yards, 432 YPG; Passing Yards, 248 YPG; Rushing Yards, 184 YPG; Scoring Average, 32 PPG, Turnovers, 1.25 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 37%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 87% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 53%

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take Arizona’s total yards on offense, add it to what Nevada gives up on defense, … get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Nevada’s total offense, add it to what Arizona gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2 to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed! That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards Advantage: Tulsa 449 to 413.5 ….

Passing Yards Advantage: Central Michigan 262 to 240, ….

Rushing Yards Advantage: Tulsa 209 to 151.5, ….

Scoring Advantage: Tulsa 34.5 to 30, ….

Turnovers Advantage: Central Michigan 1.5 to 1.71, …

3rd Down Conversions Advantage: Tulsa 42.4 to 39.5, …

Red Zone All Scores Advantage: Tulsa 83.5 to 80, …

Red Zone TD’s Only Advantage: Tulsa 61 to 57.5, …

Game Simulator Says:  Tulsa over Central Michigan 6 to 2 in the 8 categories assessed!

Individuals to Watch: Tulsa QB Dane Evens, 27 TD’s 12 INT’s, 3044 Passing Yards; CMU, QB Cooper Rush, 23 to 13 TD/INT, 3299 Passing Yards

Sully Says: AAC is a better Conference than the MAC, Central will mot be able to deal with Tulsa overall speed, The Golden Hurricanes win this one going away, take Tulsa / give  Chippewas the 12.5

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