Little Caesars Pizza Bowl Pitt vs Bowling Green 2013

Bowl History: The Bowl game was established in 1997 and was known as the Motor City Bowl until 2009 when Little Caesars took over sponsorship. The first five games (1997 to 2001) were played @ the Silverdome in Pontiac, Michigan, before being moved in 2002 to Fords Field in downtown Detroit. The Conference Tie-ins are the MAC and Big Ten… with the alternate being the Sun Belt. The first game in this bowl series took place on December 26, 1997… Ole Miss beat Marshall 34 to 31 and last year’s (2012) defending Champ, Central Michigan, snuck by Western Kentucky, 24-21. This year’s match-up pits the ACC (Pitt)against the Mid-American Champ (Bowling Green).

Teams:  Conference, MAC; Bowling Green, Overall Record 10-3; Conference Record 8-1; & East Division Record, 6-0 .. vs .. Pitt Conference, ACC; Overall Record 6-6; Conference Record, 3-5; Divisional Record, Coastal Division 2-4!

Bowl Location: Detroit, Michigan …. the game is played annually @ Fords Field, which has a seating capacity of 65,000! The largest crowd to attend this bowl was in 2007 @ the Purdue /Central Michigan Game …. 60,624 were present …. for what turned out to be the best game as well …. a 51 to 48 Purdue win.

Day, Date & Time: Thursday, 12/20/2013 @ 5:00 p.m. CST

Network: ESPN

Best Win(s): Bowling Green: Beat NIU 47-27; Pitt: Beat ND 28-21

Worst Losses: Bowling Green: Toledo 28-25 Pitt: Navy 24-21

Common Opponents: None!

Las Vegas Hotsheet Favorite: Bowling Green -4.5

Offensive Team Data: Bowling Green; Total Yards,  472 YPG; Passing Yards,  264 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  207 YPG; Scoring Average,  35 PPG, Turnovers,  .85 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 46.9%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 83% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 66%

Offensive Team Data: Pittsburgh ; Total Yards,  352 YPG; Passing Yards, 237 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 115 YPG; Scoring Average  26 PPG, Turnovers,  1.42 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 39.4%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 75% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 63%

Defensive Team Data: BGU; Total Yards,  309 YPG; Passing Yards,  166 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  143 YPG; Scoring Average,  15 PPG, Turnovers,  1.62 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 36%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, % & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, %

Defensive Team Data: Pittsburgh; Total Yards,  374 YPG; Passing Yards,  213 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  160 YPG; Scoring Average,  27 PPG, Turnovers,  1.33 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 39.1%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 92% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 61%

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take BGU’s total yards on offense, add it to what  gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Nevada’s total offense, add it to what Arizona gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards:  Advantage, Bowling  Green …. 423 to 331

Passing Yards: Advantage, Bowling  Green …. 239 to 202

Rushing Yards: Advantage, Bowling  Green … 184 to 129

Scoring: Advantage, Bowling  Green …. 31 to 21

Turnovers: Advantage, Bowlin  Green … 1.09 to 1.52

3rd Down Conversions: Advantage, Bowling  Green … 43% 37.7%

Red Zone All Scores: Advantage, Bowling  Green  … 87.5 to 68.5

Red Zone TD’s Only: Advantage, Bowling  Green… 63.5 to 62.5

Individuals to Watch: Pitt: QB Tom Savage, 2834 passing yards, 21TD’s & 9INT’s, Tyler Boyd, 77 receptions, 1001 receiving yards, & 7 TD’s; BGU:  QB Matt Johnson, 3195 passing yards, 23 TD’s, & 7 INT’s, RB Travis Greene, 261 rushes, 1555 rushing yardsm & 11TD’s!

Sully Says: BGU wins & covers!