Sully's Big Blog! Commentary on College Football, Weekly Games, And Strange Statistics!

Belk Bowl

Bowl History: This Bowl was first played in 2002, the NCAA certified the Bowl as the Queen City Bowl …. even though it has never been called that …. it remains the Official Name of the bowl! The Queen City Bowl has been known as the Continental Tire Bowl …2002 through 2004 … Meineke  Care Car Bowl …. 2004 – 2010 …. and when Belk took over sponsorship in 2011 …. the Belk Bowl. The Bowl tie-ins are ACC vs Big East! On December 28, 2002, the inaugural game was played between Virginia & West Virginia …. won by Virginia, 48-22! Last year’s game (2015) featured Cincinnati against Duke… Cincy prevailed, 48-34! The Belk Bowl payout is 1.7 million per team!

Teams: Arkansas 7-5 (SEC) Virginia Tech 9-4 (ACC)

Bowl Location: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC

Day, Date & Time: Thursday, December 29, 2016, 4:40 p.m. CST

Network: ESPN

Best Win(s): Virginia Tech beat Miami (8-4) 37-16 & UNC 34-3; Arkansas beat Florida (9-4), 31-10

Worst LossesVirginia Tech Syracuse (4-8) 31-17; Arkansas  Alabama (13-0), 56-3

Common Opponents: None

Vegas Hotsheets Favorite: Virginia Tech -6

Offensive Team Data: Arkansas ; Total Yards,  438 YPG; Passing Yards,  263 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 175  YPG; Scoring Average,  31 PPG, Turnovers,  1.75 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 42%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 78% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 60%

Offensive Team Data: Virginia Tech ; Total Yards,  448 YPG; Passing Yards, 263 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 185 YPG; Scoring Average  35 PPG, Turnovers,  1.85 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 42.3%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 87% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 57%

Defensive Team Data: Arkansas ; Total Yards,  429 YPG; Passing Yards,  219 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  209 YPG; Scoring Average,  31 PPG, Turnovers,  1.58 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 45.3%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 83% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 68%

Defensive Team Data: Virginia Tech ; Total Yards,  343 YPG; Passing Yards,  194 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  149 YPG; Scoring Average,  23 PPG, Turnovers,  1.62 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 28.4%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 79% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 55%

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take Arizona’s total yards on offense, add it to what Nevada gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Nevada’s total offense, add it to what Arizona gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards Advantage: Virginia Tech 438.5 to 390.5

Passing Yards Advantage: Virginia Tech 241 to 228.5

Rushing Yard Advantage: Virginia Tech 197 to 162

Scoring Advantage: Virginia Tech 33 to 27

Turnovers Advantage: Arkansas 1.685 to 1.715

3rd Down Conversions Advantage: Virginia Tech 43.8 to 35.2

Red Zone All Scores Advantage: Virginia Tech 85 to 78.5

Red Zone TD’s Only Advantage: Virginia Tech 62.5 to 57.5

The Game Simulator Says: Virginia Tech 7, Arkansas 1; GS thinks Va Tech wins, 33-27. the 6 points is what VT is giving Arkansas. GS game is a push 33-33

Individuals to Watch: VT QB, Jerod Evens, 27/7 ratio to Arkansas’ Austin Allen’s 23/12

Sully Says: Take Arkansas and the 6 points, the Razorbacks will be able to run the ball!

Posted in #1 Uncategorized |

Birmingham Bowl

Bowl History: The Birmingham Bowl is a post-season NCAA-sanctioned Division I-A college football bowl game approved in April 2006 and played annually at the 71,594-seat Legion Field in Birmingham, Alabama, U.S. ESPN Regional Television (doing business as ESPN Plus, a subsidiary of ESPN) owns and manages the bowl’s operations, sponsorships and marketing, including broadcast of the game on ESPN. TheUniversity of Alabama Birmingham (UAB) also provides marketing, management and game-day operations support. The game was sponsored by BBVA Compass, a subsidiary of Bilbao, Spain-based Banko Bilbao Vizcaya Argintaria which is based in Birmingham. Compass and bowl officials announced the new sponsorship on November 4, 2010.[3] The game formerly promoted the website of Papa John’s Pizza, who became the title sponsor signing a multi-year agreement on November 16, 2006. The company declined to renew its sponsorship in 2010, so the bowl name reverted to its working title before the announcement of the Compass deal. On April 3, 2013, BBVA Compass decided not to renew its sponsorship of the BBVA Compass Bowl following the January 2014 game. The bowl originally had a four-year agreement with C-USA to match a representative of that conference against an opponent from the B-East (Now Defunct), but the bowl’s officials later appealed to the NCAA for a recertification which was granted in late April 2008. In 2008 and 2009, the bowl featured the SEC’s ninth bowl-eligible team and a team from the Big East Conference.The game currently features teams from the SEC and the AAC Should either of these conferences not fulfill their bowl commitments, a team from C-USA or the MAC will take their place, provided it is bowl eligible. Otherwise, the game will choose an at-large team!

Teams: South Florida 10-2 (AAC) South Catolina 6-6 (SEC)

Bowl Location: Legion Field, Birmingham, Alabama

Day, Date & Time: Thursday, December 29,2016, 1:00 p.m. CST

Network: ESPN

Best Win(s): South Florida beat Navy (9-4), 52-45; South Carolina beat Tenneesee (8-4), 24-21

Worst LossesSouth Florida lost to FSU 55-35, South Carolina lost to Clemson, 56-7

Common Opponents: East Carolina: USF won 38-22 while South Carolina won 20-15

Vegas Hotsheets Favorite: South Florida -10

Offensive Team Data: South Florida ; Total Yards,  515 YPG; Passing Yards,  223 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  292 YPG; Scoring Average,  44 PPG, Turnovers,  1.25 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 44.3%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 85% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 70%

Offensive Team Data: South Carolina ; Total Yards,  336 YPG; Passing Yards, 198 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 138 YPG; Scoring Average  19 PPG, Turnovers,  1.25 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 33.9%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 81% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 62%

Defensive Team Data: South Florida ; Total Yards,  482 YPG; Passing Yards,  277 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  205 YPG; Scoring Average,  31 PPG, Turnovers,  1.75 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 51.3%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 94% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 63%

Defensive Team Data: South Carolina ; Total Yards,  407  YPG; Passing Yards,  204 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  203 YPG; Scoring Average,  25 PPG, Turnovers,  2.08 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 42.8%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 61% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 33%

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take Arizona’s total yards on offense, add it to what Nevada gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Nevada’s total offense, add it to what Arizona gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards Advantage: South Florida 461 to 409

Passing Yards Advantage: South Carolina 237.5 to 213.5

Rushing Yard Advantage: South Florida 247.5 to 171.5

Scoring Advantage: South Florida 34.5 to 25

Turnovers Advantage: South Carolina 1.5 to 1.665

3rd Down Conversions Advantage: South Florida 43.55 to 42.6

Red Zone All Scores Advantage: South Carolina 87.5 to 73

Red Zone TD’s Only Advantage: South Carolina 62.5 to 51.5

The Game Simulator Says: A Statistical tie South Florida 4, South Carolina 4,, GS has USF winning by 10, 35-25; Vegas is giving USC 11 points ! GS thinks USF wins outright but does not cover!

Individuals to Watch: USF QB Quinton Flowers, 22/6 Ratio & 212..6 YPG vs South Carolina’s 61st rated D (407.2 YPG) defense

Sully Says: Take South Carolina and the 11 points!

Posted in #1 Uncategorized |

AudoCare V100 Texas Bowl

Bowl History: The Texas Bowl (officially known as the AdvoCare V100 Texas Bowl for sponsorship reasons, and formerly known as the Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas) is a post-season NCAA-sanctioned Division I FBS college football boiwl game that was held for the first time in 2006 in Houston, Texas. The bowl replaced the now-defunct Houston Bowl, which was played annually from 2000 to 2005. The first bowl game in Houston was the Bluebonnet Bowl, played from 1959 through 1987

Teams: Texas A&M 8-4  (SEC) Kansas State 8-4 (B-12)

Bowl Location: NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas

Day, Date & Time: Wednesday, December 28, 2016, 8:00 p.m. CST

Network: ESPS

Best Win(s): A&M beat Arkansas (7-5), 45-24 & Tennessee (8-4), 45-38 in OT; Kansas State Beat TCU (6-6), 30-6 & Baylor (6-6) 42-21

Worst Losses: A&M Lost to Ole Miss (5-7), 29-28 & LSU (7-4), 54-39; Kansas State lost to Oklahoma (10-2), 38-17

Common Opponents: None

Vegas Hotsheets Favorite: Texas A&M -2.5

Offensive Team Data: Texas A&M ; Total Yards,  468 YPG; Passing Yards,  251 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  218 YPG; Scoring Average,  35 PPG, Turnovers,  1.58 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 39.6%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 86% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 59%

Offensive Team Data: Kansas State ; Total Yards,  387 YPG; Passing Yards, 154 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 233 YPG; Scoring Average  32 PPG, Turnovers,  0.83 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 46%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 91% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 70%

Defensive Team Data: Texas A&M ; Total Yards,  444 YPG; Passing Yards,  255 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  190 YPG; Scoring Average,  24 PPG, Turnovers,  2 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 39.2%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 61% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 33%

Defensive Team Data: Kansas State ; Total Yards,  382 YPG; Passing Yards,  270 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  113 YPG; Scoring Average,  22 PPG, Turnovers,  1.75 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 37.7%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 100% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 100%

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take Arizona’s total yards on offense, add it to what Nevada gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Nevada’s total offense, add it to what Arizona gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards Advantage: Texas A&M 425 to 415.5

Passing Yards Advantage: Texas A&M 260.5 to 204.5

Rushing Yard Advantage: Kansas State 211.5 to 165.5

Scoring Advantage: Texas A&M 28.5 to 28

Turnovers Advantage: Kansas State 1.415 to 1.665

3rd Down Conversions Advantage: Kansas State 42.5 to 38.65

Red Zone All Scores Advantage: Texas A&M 93 to 76

Red Zone TD’s Only Advantage: Texas A&M 79.5 to 51.5

The Game Simulator Says: Texas A&M 5, Kansas State 3, GS likes Kansas State and the points, as A&M wins a close game but does not cover the 3.5

Individuals to Watch: A&M QB, Trevor Knight is out (or is he?) as to why this game is so close!

Sully Says: A&M wins by a TD or more and covers!

Posted in #1 Uncategorized |

Foster Farms Bowl

Bowl History: The Foster Farms Bowl is a post-season college football game certified by the NCAA that has been played annually since 2002. The game is currently sponsored by the Foster Farms poultry company. It was previously known as the Fight Hunger Bowl in 2013, the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl from 2010 to 2012 due to its sponsorship by Kraft Foods, as the Emerald Bowl from 2004 to 2009, and as the Diamond Walnut San Francisco Bowl, from 2002 to 2003, in recognition of the corporate title sponsor, Diamond Foods. From 2002 to 2013, the annual game was played at 40,800-seat AT&T Park, home of the SF Giants, in San Francisco, California. Starting in 2014, it has been played at Levi’s Stadium home of the SF 49er’s, in Santa Clara, California.

Teams: Indiana 6-6 (B-10) Utah 8-4 (P-12)

Bowl Location: Levi Stadium, Santa Clara, California

Day, Date & Time: Wednesday, December 28, 2016, 7:30 p.m. CST

Network: Fox Sports

Best Win(s): Utah beat USC  (9-3) 31-27 & BYU 20-19; Indiana beat Maryland (6-6), 42-36

Worst LossesUtah lost to Oregon (4-8) 30-28; Indiana OSU (11-1) 38-17

Common Opponents: None

Vegas Hotsheets Favorite: Utah -7.5

Offensive Team Data: Indiana ; Total Yards,  436 YPG; Passing Yards,  253 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  183 YPG; Scoring Average,  26 PPG, Turnovers,  2.17 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 39.6%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 71% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 49%

Offensive Team Data: Utah ; Total Yards,  427 YPG; Passing Yards, 217 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 211 YPG; Scoring Average  30 PPG, Turnovers,  1.75 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 37.6%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 76% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 50%

Defensive Team Data: Indiana ; Total Yards,  372 YPG; Passing Yards,  220 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  152 YPG; Scoring Average,  27 PPG, Turnovers,  1.67 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 32.8%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 88% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 56%

Defensive Team Data: Utah ; Total Yards,  390 YPG; Passing Yards,  259 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  130 YPG; Scoring Average,  24 PPG, Turnovers,  2.33 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 38.5%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 100% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 57%

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take Arizona’s total yards on offense, add it to what Nevada gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Nevada’s total offense, add it to what Arizona gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards Advantage: Indiana 413 to 399.5

Passing Yards Advantage: Indiana 256 to 218.5

Rushing Yard Advantage: Utah 181.5 to 156.5

Scoring Advantage: Utah 28.5 to 25

Turnovers Advantage: Utah 1.71 to 2.25

3rd Down Conversions Advantage: Indiana 39.05 to 35.2

Red Zone All Scores Advantage: Indiana 85.5 to 82

Red Zone TD’s Only Advantage: TIE Indiana 53, Utah 53

The Game Simulator Says: In the number world, Indiana 5, Utah 4, Utah is giving Indaian 7.5 points GS thinks that is too many, Take Indiana and the points

Individuals to Watch: IU’s QB, Richard Lagow, 18/16 ratio, 264.5 YPG, Utah QB, Troy Williams, 15/7 214.9 YPG!

Sully Says: Take Indiana and the 7.5 as Utah wins but does not cover

Posted in #1 Uncategorized |

Russell Athletic Bowl

Bowl History: First, let’s start with the many names this Bowl has been known by a) Sunshine Classic (1990), b) Blockbluster Bowl (1990-93), c) Carquest Bowl (1994 -97), d) MicronPC Bowl (1998),  e) MicronPC.com Bowl (1999-2000),  f) Visit Florida Tangerine Bowl (2001)  g) Mazda Tangerine Bowl (2002-03) & h) Champs Sports Bowl (2004-11)! The present day Bowl/Game was founded in 1990 and has been played annually since that time. The current, official name for the Bowl is the Russell Athletic Bowl! The first game pitted Florida State against Penn State, a game won the by the Seminoles, 24-17, on December 28, 1990! The defending Champion from last year’s game is Baylor, who beat UNC, 49-38, on December 29, 2015! The Bowl conference tie-ins are the AAC & ACC and the Bowl Payout is $2,275,000. 00 as of 2015!

Teams: West Virginia 10-2 (B-12) Miami FL 8-4 (ACC)

Bowl Location: Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Florida

Day, Date & Time: Wednesday, December 28, 2016, 4:30 p.m. CST

Network: ESPN

Best Win(s): WV beat, Kansas State (8-4), 17-16; Miami Beat Pitt (8-4), 51-28

Worst Losses: WV lost to Oklahoma (10-2) 56-28; Miami lost to ND (4-8) 30-27 

Common Opponents: None

Vegas Hotsheets Favorite: Miami -1

Offensive Team Data: W Virginia ; Total Yards,  509 YPG; Passing Yards,  270 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  240 YPG; Scoring Average,  32 PPG, Turnovers,  1.58 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 41%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 81% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 56%

Offensive Team Data: Miami FL ; Total Yards,  431 YPG; Passing Yards, 274 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 158 YPG; Scoring Average  35 PPG, Turnovers,  0.83 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 36.9%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 82% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 59%

Defensive Team Data: W Virginia ; Total Yards,  431 YPG; Passing Yards,  256 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  176 YPG; Scoring Average,  23 PPG, Turnovers,  2.08 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 40.5%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 75% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 50%

Defensive Team Data: Miami FL ; Total Yards,  356 YPG; Passing Yards,  220 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  133 YPG; Scoring Average,  19 PPG, Turnovers,  1.33 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 38.9%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 100% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 0%

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take Arizona’s total yards on offense, add it to what Nevada gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Nevada’s total offense, add it to what Arizona gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards Advantage: W Virginia 431.5 to 431

Passing Yards Advantage: Miami FL 265 to 245

Rushing Yard Advantage: W Virginia 186.5 to 167

Scoring Advantage: Miami FL 29 to 25.5

Turnovers Advantage: TIE W Virginia  1.455, Miami FL  1.455

3rd Down Conversions Advantage: W Virginia 39.95 to 38.7

Red Zone All Scores Advantage: W Virginia 90.5 to 78.5

Red Zone TD’s Only Advantage: Miami FL 54.5 to 28

The Game Simulator Says: W Virginia 5, Miami FL 4, however GS likes Miani on the scoring end, 29-26, to win the game. Miami is giving WV a point, The site believes you take Miami and give WV the point!

Individuals to Watch: Miami QB, Brad Kaaya, 23/7  ratio, 270 YPG, WV, Skyler Howard, 26/10 ratio and 266.2 YPG

Sully Says: Miami has the 27th best defense (355.3) in the country while WV is rated as the 79 best (431.2) ; WV has the 12 th best offense (506.9) to Miami 52 rank (431.2 YPG} Take WV and the point!

Posted in #1 Uncategorized |

New Era Pinstripe Bowl

Bowl History: The New Era Pinstripe Bowl is brand new … the NCAA certified the Bowl September 30, 2010! The first game was played on December, 30, 2010 … Syracuse beat Kansas State, 36-34 and last years game featured Duke against Indiana, a game won by the Devils (Duke), 44-41 in OT! The teams play for the George M. Steinbrenner Trophy! The Conference tie-ins are the AAC & the Big 12 & the New Era Pinstripe Bowl Payout is $2,000,000.00

Teams: Pitt 8-4 (ACC) Northwestern 6-6 (B-10)

Bowl Location: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, New York

Day, Date & Time: Wednesday, December 28, 2016, 1:00 p.m. CST

Network: ESPN

Best Win(s): Pitt beat Clemson (12-1) 43-42 & PSU (11-2), 42-39, Northwestern beat Iowa (8-4) , 38-31

Worst Losses: Pitt lost to Miami (8-4) 51-28; Northwestern lost to Illinois State (a FCS team out of the MVFC), 9-6

Common Opponents: Duke:  Pitt beat Duke 56-14 while Northwestern won 24-13

Vegas Hotsheets Favorite: Pitt -3.5

Offensive Team Data: Pitt ; Total Yards,  448 YPG; Passing Yards,  218 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  230 YPG; Scoring Average,  42 PPG, Turnovers,  1.17 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 45.3%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 92% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 83%

Offensive Team Data: Northwestern ; Total Yards,  393 YPG; Passing Yards, 248 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 145 YPG; Scoring Average  26 PPG, Turnovers,  1.08 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 38.5%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 74% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 58%

Defensive Team Data: Pitt ; Total Yards,  457 YPG; Passing Yards,  343 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  113 YPG; Scoring Average,  36 PPG, Turnovers,  1.42 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 39.9%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 93% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 79%

Defensive Team Data: Northwestern ; Total Yards,  402 YPG; Passing Yards,  265 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  137 YPG; Scoring Average,  22 PPG, Turnovers,  1.75 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 36.1%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 71% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 47%

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take Arizona’s total yards on offense, add it to what Nevada gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Nevada’s total offense, add it to what Arizona gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards Advantage: TIE Northwestern 425, Pitt 425

Passing Yards Advantage: Northwestern 295.5 to 241.5

Rushing Yard Advantage: Pitt 183.5 to 129

Scoring Advantage: Pitt 32 to 31

Turnovers Advantage: Northwestern 1.25 to 1.46

3rd Down Conversions Advantage: Pitt 40.7 to 39.2

Red Zone All Scores Advantage: Northwestern 83.5 to 81.5

Red Zone TD’s Only Advantage: Northwestern 68.5 to 65

The Game Simulator Says: Northwestern wins the statistical battle 5-4 and yet, GS has Pitt winning the game bt a point. 32-31. The Simulator thinks you take the Cats and the 3.5 points!

Individuals to Watch: Pitt’s QB, Nate Peterman, 26/6 ratio, Northwestern’s RB Justin Jackson 12 td’s 1300 rushing yards

Sully Says: Pitt wins outright and covers the 3.5

Posted in #1 Uncategorized |

Motel 6 Cactus Bowl

Bowl History: The Cactus Bowl, officially the Motel 6 Cactus Bowl for sponsorship purposes, is an NCAA, FBS, football game that has been played in the state of Arizona since 1989. Originally played in Tucson at Arizona Stadium as the Copper Bowl, the game moved to Chase Field in Phoenix in 2000 and then to Sun Devil Stadium in Tempe in 2006. For the 2015, 2016, and 2017 seasons, the Cactus Bowl is being played at its previous home of Chase Field in Phoenix while Sun Devil Stadium undergoes renovations. During this time, the game will be one of four bowl games that are played in baseball-specific stadiums; the Miami Beach Bowl, played at Marlins, the St. Petersburg Bowl, played at Tropicanna Field, and the Pinstripe Bowl, played at Yankee Stadium are the other three games.

Teams: Boise State 10-2 (MWC) Baylor 6-6 (B-12)

Bowl Location: Chase Field, Phoenix, Arizona

Day, Date & Time: Tuesday, December 27, 2016, 9:15 p.m. CST

Network: ESPN

Best Win(s): Bayler beat Oklahoma State (9-3), 35-24, Boise State beat (BYU 8-4), 28-27, Beat Washington State (8-4), 31-28

Worst Losses: Baylor lost to TCU, 62-22; Boise State lost to Air Force, 27-20 (3 loss in a row tp AFA)

Common Opponents: None

Vegas Hotsheets Favorite: Boise State -10

Offensive Team Data: Boise St ; Total Yards,  480 YPG; Passing Yards,  298 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  183 YPG; Scoring Average,  36 PPG, Turnovers,  1.17 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 48.3%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 88% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 73%

Offensive Team Data: Baylor ; Total Yards,  523 YPG; Passing Yards, 273 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 250 YPG; Scoring Average  35 PPG, Turnovers,  2.08 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 41.5%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 73% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 58%

Defensive Team Data: Boise St ; Total Yards,  398 YPG; Passing Yards,  203 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  195 YPG; Scoring Average,  23 PPG, Turnovers,  0.75 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 37.8%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 88% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 53%

Defensive Team Data: Baylor ; Total Yards,  436 YPG; Passing Yards,  224 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  212 YPG; Scoring Average,  30 PPG, Turnovers,  1.42 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 41.4%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 67% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 40%

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take Arizona’s total yards on offense, add it to what Nevada gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Nevada’s total offense, add it to what Arizona gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards Advantage: Baylor 460.5 to 458

Passing Yards Advantage: Boise St 261 to 238

Rushing Yard Advantage: Baylor 222.5 to 197.5

Scoring Advantage: Boise St 33 to 29

Turnovers Advantage: Boise St 1.295 to 1.415

3rd Down Conversions Advantage: Boise St 44.85 to 39.65

Red Zone All Scores Advantage: Baylor 8o.5% to 77.5%

Red Zone TD’s Only Advantage: Boise St 56.5% to 55.5%

The Game Simulator Says: Boise St 5, Baylor 3 in the statistical battle, The site like BSU to win (33-29) but not cover. Take Baylor and the 10 points!

Individuals to Watch: BSU QB Brett Rypien 23/8 ratio. 3341 passing yards; Baylor QB Seth Russell 20/8 ratio passed for 2126.

Sully Says: Baylor won its first 6 and then lost 6 in a row, they are now the mess on the field that they are off the field! Take BSU to win and cover

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National Funding Holiday Bowl

Bowl History: First, this Holiday Bowl is not to be confused with the one played in Saint Petersburg, Florida (1957 to 1960)! The current Holiday Bowl is played in San Diego, California @ Qualcomm Stadium and is not connected to the former Bowl in any way, shape, or form! The present day Holiday Bowl was founded in 1978 and has been played annually since its inception. There have been a host of sponsors: SeaWorld (1986-90), Thrifty Car Rental (1991-94), Plymouth (1995-97), Culligan (1998-2001), Pacific Life Insurance Company (2002-09) Bridgepoint Education (2010 to 2012), National University (2013-2014) and now National Funding (2014-2016}! The current, official name for the Bowl is National Funding Holiday Bowl! The first game pitted Navy against BYU, a game won the by the Midshipmen, 23-16, on December 22, 1978! The defending Champion from last year’s game is Wisconsin, who beat USC, 23-21, on December 30, 2015! The Bowl conference tie-ins are currently the Big 10 & PAC 12 and the Bowl Payout is $2,825,000. 00!

Teams: Minnesota 8-4 (B-10) Washington State 8-4 (P-12)

Bowl Location: Qualcomm Stadiun, San Diego State

Day, Date & Time: Tuesday, December 27, 2016, 6:00 p.m. CST

Network: ESPN

Best Win(s): Minnesota beat Colorado State (7-5) 31-24 & Northwestern (6-6) 29-12; Washington State beat Stanford 42-16, Arizona 69-7, & Cal, 56-21

Worst LossesMinnesota Penn State 29-26 in OT @ Happy Valley; Washington State lost to Eastern Washington 45-42 & Washington, 45-17!

Common Opponents: Oregon State: WSU won 35-31 while Minnesota won 30-23

Vegas Hotsheets Favorite: Washington State -10

Offensive Team Data: Minnesota ; Total Yards,  364 YPG; Passing Yards,  177 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  186 YPG; Scoring Average,  30 PPG, Turnovers,  1.33 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 39.8%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 87% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 67%

Offensive Team Data: Wash State ; Total Yards,  498 YPG; Passing Yards, 371 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 127 YPG; Scoring Average  40 PPG, Turnovers,  1.42 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 48.8%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 82% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 72%

Defensive Team Data: Minnesota ; Total Yards,  353 YPG; Passing Yards, 228 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  124 YPG; Scoring Average,  23 PPG, Turnovers,  2 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 39.2%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 93% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 67%

Defensive Team Data: Wash State ; Total Yards,  417 YPG; Passing Yards,  284 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  133 YPG; Scoring Average,  27 PPG, Turnovers,  1.83 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 41%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 83% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 72%

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take Arizona’s total yards on offense, add it to what Nevada gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Nevada’s total offense, add it to what Arizona gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards Advantage: Wash State 425.5 to 390.5

Passing Yards Advantage: Wash State 299.5 to 230.5

Rushing Yard Advantage: Minnesota 159.5 to 125.5

Scoring Advantage: Wash State 31.5 to 28.5

Turnovers Advantage: Minnesota 1.58 to 1.71

3rd Down Conversions Advantage: Wash State 44 to 40.4

Red Zone All Scores Advantage: Wash State 85.5% to 85%

Red Zone TD’s Only Advantage: Tie 69.5% Minn. Wash. State

The Game Simulator Says: Wash State 6, Minnesota 3 in the numbers game Washington State wins (32-29) but does not cover. Take Minnesota and the 10 points

Individuals to Watch: Minnesota’s RB, Rodney Smith, 1084 yards & 11 TD’s; WSU Luke Falk, 37 to 10 Ratio & 4204 Passing Yards, 350.3 YPG (4th in the country), & 37 TD’s

Sully Says: Minnesota has the 69th rated pass defense, allowing 228.2 YPG and this is easily the best passing game (4th in the nation) the Gophers have faced in 2016! WSU can’t run the ball (114th in the land) and the Gophers have the 54th best run offense in the FBS. Take the Gophers and the 10 as they upset the Cougers outright!

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Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman

Bowl History: This bowl was founded in 2008, previously known as the EagleBank Bowl, in its’ planning stages it was to be called the Congressional Bowl to be played @ DC’s RFK. EagleBank is a Washington D.C. financial institution which sponsored the first two games (2008 & 2009) until Northrup Grumman, one of the worlds largest defense contractors, took over sponsorship in 2010. They renamed the event the Military Bowl presented by Northrup Grumman that same year! The conference tie-ins are the ACC vs C-USA, Navy or Army. The first game in this bowl was played on December 20, 2008 between Navy & Wake Forest, Wake won 29-19! Bowl Payout:  $ 1,000,000.00 per team

Teams: Temple 10-3 (AAC)  vs Wake Forest 6-6 (ACC)

Bowl Location: Navy-Marine CorpsMemorial Stadium, Annapolis Md

Day, Date & Time: Tuesday, December, 27, 2016, 3:30 CST

Network: ESPN

Best Win(s): Temple beat Navy, 34-10, Wake Forest beat Indiana, 33-28

Worst Losses: Temple lost to Army, 28-13, Wake Forest lost to NC State, 33-16

Common Opponents: None

Vegas Hotsheets Favorite: Temple -13

Offensive Team Data: Temple ; Total Yards,  416 YPG; Passing Yards,  225 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  191 YPG; Scoring Average,  33 PPG, Turnovers,  1.23 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 44.1%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 84% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 57%

Offensive Team Data: Wake Forest ; Total Yards,  307 YPG; Passing Yards, 151 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 156 YPG; Scoring Average  19 PPG, Turnovers,  1.25 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 34.4%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 89% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 49%

Defensive Team Data: Temple ; Total Yards,  276 YPG; Passing Yards,  145 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  131 YPG; Scoring Average,  17 PPG, Turnovers,  1.62 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 33.9%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 70% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 56%

Defensive Team Data: Wake Forest ; Total Yards,  370 YPG; Passing Yards,  222 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  148 YPG; Scoring Average, 22  PPG, Turnovers,  2 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 36.4%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, % & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, %

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take Arizona’s total yards on offense, add it to what Nevada gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Nevada’s total offense, add it to what Arizona gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards Advantage: Temple 393 to 291.5

Passing Yards Advantage: Temple 223.5 to 148

Rushing Yard Advantage: Temple 169.5 to 143.5

Scoring Advantage: Temple 27.5 to 18

Turnovers Advantage: Wake Forest 1.435 to 1.615

3rd Down Conversions Advantage:  Temple 40.25 to 34.15

Red Zone All Scores Advantage: Temple 80% to 77.5%

Red Zone TD’s Only Advantage: Temple 61.5% to 52%

The Game Simulator Says: Statistcally its Temple 7, Wake Forest 1. The site computes Temple wins 28-18, but does not cover the 13 points 

Individuals to Watch: Temple QB, Phillip Walker, 20/12 ratio 2899 passing yards, WF QB John Wolford 7/9 TD/INT Ratio1591 passing yards

Sully Says: WF lost 3 of their 6 losses by more than 13 points, while 8 of Temple’s wins were by more than 13. Temple wins but does not cover!

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Zaxby’s Heart of Dallas Bowl

Bowl History: The Heart of Dallas Bowl was formally known as the Ticket City Bowl. The game was first played on January 1, 2011, Texas Tech survived Northwestern, 45-38, while the 2012 game pitted Houston against Penn State, Cougars beat the Lions, 30-14! Conference tie-ins Big Ten / Big 12 & in 2013 Big Ten / C-USA! The Bowl payout is $1,200,000.00. The bowl’s full name is the Zaxby’s Heart of Dallas Bowl. Zaxby’s took over as title sponsor after Plains Capital Bank withdrew after the 2013 season event; Zaxby’s became the primary sponsor in time for the 2014–15 and has continued in that role to the present!

Teams: Army 7-5 (IND) vs North Texas 5-7 (C-USA)

Bowl Location: Cotton Bowl, Dallas, Texas

Day, Date & Time: Tuesday, December 27, 2016, 11:00 a.m. CST

Network: ESPN

Best Win(s): Army beat Navy (9-4) 21-17, Wafe Forest (6-6), 21-13; North Texas Beat Southern Miss (7-6), 29-23

Worst LossesBuffalo (2-10) 23-20, Duke (4-8) 13-6,

Common Opponents: These teams played one another, North Texas won 35-18, Rice: Army won,. 31-14 & NT won 42-35, UTEP: Army won 66-14 while North Texas lost 52-24

Vegas Hotsheets Favorite: Army -9

Offensive Team Data: Army ; Total Yards,  404 YPG; Passing Yards,  84 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  320 YPG; Scoring Average,  29 PPG, Turnovers,  2 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 46.2%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 80% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 70%

Offensive Team Data: N Texas ; Total Yards,  336 YPG; Passing Yards, 200 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 137 YPG; Scoring Average  24 PPG, Turnovers,  1.75 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 34.3%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 81% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 68%

Defensive Team Data: Army ; Total Yards,  283 YPG; Passing Yards,  150 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 133  YPG; Scoring Average,  19 PPG, Turnovers,  1.67 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 37.7%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 90% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 62%

Defensive Team Data: N Texas ; Total Yards,  436 YPG; Passing Yards,  217 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  220 YPG; Scoring Average,  32 PPG, Turnovers,  1.75 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 46%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 85% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 62%

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take Arizona’s total yards on offense, add it to what Nevada gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Nevada’s total offense, add it to what Arizona gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards Advantage: Army 420 to 309.5

Passing Yards Advantage: N Texas 175 to 150.5

Rushing Yard Advantage: Army 270 to 135

Scoring Advantage: Army 30.5 to 21.5

Turnovers Advantage: N Texas 1.71 to 1.875

3rd Down Conversions Advantage:  Army 46.1 to 36

Red Zone All Scores Advantage: N Texas 85.5 to 82.5

Red Zone TD’s Only Advantage: Army 66 to 65

The Game Simulator Says: A statistical win for Army 5 to  3! Site thinks Army 31 North Teaxas 22, interestingly Vegas agrees making a Army a 9 point favorite. Not sure way, N. Texas won the regular season game, 35-18! The Site says this game is a draw! 

Individuals to Watch: NT QB Mason Fine 6/5 ratio and 1572 passing yards, RB Andy Davidson, 905 Rushing Yards & 11 TD’s

Sully Says: Army has the nations second best rushing attack and N. Texas has the 105th worst run defense. Army wims but does not cover the 9 points!

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