Sully's Big Blog! Commentary on College Football, Weekly Games, And Strange Statistics!

Birmingham Bowl

Bowl History: The Birmingham Bowl is a post-season NCAA-sanctioned Division I-A college football bowl game approved in April 2006 and played annually at the 71,594-seat Legion Field in Birmingham, Alabama, U.S. ESPN Regional Television (doing business as ESPN Plus, a subsidiary of ESPN) owns and manages the bowl’s operations, sponsorships and marketing, including broadcast of the game on ESPN. TheUniversity of Alabama Birmingham (UAB) also provides marketing, management and game-day operations support. The game was sponsored by BBVA Compass, a subsidiary of Bilbao, Spain-based Banko Bilbao Vizcaya Argintaria which is based in Birmingham. Compass and bowl officials announced the new sponsorship on November 4, 2010.[3] The game formerly promoted the website of Papa John’s Pizza, who became the title sponsor signing a multi-year agreement on November 16, 2006. The company declined to renew its sponsorship in 2010, so the bowl name reverted to its working title before the announcement of the Compass deal. On April 3, 2013, BBVA Compass decided not to renew its sponsorship of the BBVA Compass Bowl following the January 2014 game. The bowl originally had a four-year agreement with C-USA to match a representative of that conference against an opponent from the B-East (Now Defunct), but the bowl’s officials later appealed to the NCAA for a recertification which was granted in late April 2008. In 2008 and 2009, the bowl featured the SEC’s ninth bowl-eligible team and a team from the Big East Conference.The game currently features teams from the SEC and the AAC Should either of these conferences not fulfill their bowl commitments, a team from C-USA or the MAC will take their place, provided it is bowl eligible. Otherwise, the game will choose an at-large team!

Teams: South Florida 10-2 (AAC) South Catolina 6-6 (SEC)

Bowl Location: Legion Field, Birmingham, Alabama

Day, Date & Time: Thursday, December 29,2016, 1:00 p.m. CST

Network: ESPN

Best Win(s): South Florida beat Navy (9-4), 52-45; South Carolina beat Tenneesee (8-4), 24-21

Worst LossesSouth Florida lost to FSU 55-35, South Carolina lost to Clemson, 56-7

Common Opponents: East Carolina: USF won 38-22 while South Carolina won 20-15

Vegas Hotsheets Favorite: South Florida -10

Offensive Team Data: South Florida ; Total Yards,  515 YPG; Passing Yards,  223 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  292 YPG; Scoring Average,  44 PPG, Turnovers,  1.25 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 44.3%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 85% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 70%

Offensive Team Data: South Carolina ; Total Yards,  336 YPG; Passing Yards, 198 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 138 YPG; Scoring Average  19 PPG, Turnovers,  1.25 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 33.9%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 81% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 62%

Defensive Team Data: South Florida ; Total Yards,  482 YPG; Passing Yards,  277 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  205 YPG; Scoring Average,  31 PPG, Turnovers,  1.75 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 51.3%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 94% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 63%

Defensive Team Data: South Carolina ; Total Yards,  407  YPG; Passing Yards,  204 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  203 YPG; Scoring Average,  25 PPG, Turnovers,  2.08 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 42.8%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 61% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 33%

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take Arizona’s total yards on offense, add it to what Nevada gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Nevada’s total offense, add it to what Arizona gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards Advantage: South Florida 461 to 409

Passing Yards Advantage: South Carolina 237.5 to 213.5

Rushing Yard Advantage: South Florida 247.5 to 171.5

Scoring Advantage: South Florida 34.5 to 25

Turnovers Advantage: South Carolina 1.5 to 1.665

3rd Down Conversions Advantage: South Florida 43.55 to 42.6

Red Zone All Scores Advantage: South Carolina 87.5 to 73

Red Zone TD’s Only Advantage: South Carolina 62.5 to 51.5

The Game Simulator Says: A Statistical tie South Florida 4, South Carolina 4,, GS has USF winning by 10, 35-25; Vegas is giving USC 11 points ! GS thinks USF wins outright but does not cover!

Individuals to Watch: USF QB Quinton Flowers, 22/6 Ratio & 212..6 YPG vs South Carolina’s 61st rated D (407.2 YPG) defense

Sully Says: Take South Carolina and the 11 points!

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