Sully's Big Blog! Commentary on College Football, Weekly Games, And Strange Statistics!

AT&T Cotton Bowl

Bowl History: The Cotton Bowl was first played in 1937 and has been played annually since its inaugural year! The Bowl was once one of the four major bowls (Sugar, Orange & Rose) today it is a second tier bowl which selects its teams after the BCS Bowls (Fiesta, Orange, Sugar, Rose & the BSC National Championship) teams have been placed! The tie-ins are the second place team or highest ranked (if 2 teams are in a BCS Bowl) team from the Big 12 and the 4th highest ranked team out of the SEC (if 2 are in the BCS … the Capital One Bowl gets the third highest ranked team from the SEC) then goes to the Cotton Bowl! The first game played in this series took place on January 1, 1937, 16th ranked TCU beat a 20th ranked Marquette, 16-6! Last year’s game was played January 6, 2012 between Arkansas and Kansas State, a game won by Arkansas, 29-16! The Cotton Bowl payout is $7,250,000.00!

Teams: Oklahoma  Conference Affiliation: Big 12; Overall Record 10-2, Conference Record 8-1,  vs Texas A&M: Conference Affiliation: SEC; Overall Record 10-2, Conference Record: 6-2, Divisional Record 5-1 (SEC West Division) 

Bowl Location: Arlington, Texas  … played @ Cowboy Stadium , the seating capacity @ the facility is 80,000. Last year’s game which featured Arkansas and Kansas State, was attended by 8o,956 or 101.20% of Cowboy Stadium’s capacity.

Day, Date, & Time: Friday, 1/4/13 @ 7:p,m. CST

Network: ESPN

Best Wins: Oklahoma: beat Texas, 63-21, & Oklahoma State, 51-48 in OT: Texas A&M beat Alabama , 29-24 & Old Miss, 30-27!

Worst Losses: Oklahoma: lost Kansas State 24-19 … this lost cost the Sooners a Big 12 Championship & a BCS bid! Texas A&M losses to LSU, 24-19 & Florida, 20-17 cost them a birth in the BCS National Championship Game!

Common Opponents: None

Las Vegas Hotsheet: Game opened @ Texas A&M -3 and has  moved to A&M -4.5

Offensive Team Data: Oklahoma:  Total Yards, 506 YPG; Passing Yards, 341 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 165 YPG; Scoring Average 40 PPG, Turnovers, 1.58 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 52.1%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 91% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 70%

Offensive Team Data: Texas A&M: Total Yards, 552 YPG; Passing Yards, 317 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 235 YPG; Scoring Average 45 PPG, Turnovers, 1.67 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 55.4%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 88% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 73% 

Defensive Team Data: Oklahoma:  Total Yards, 379 YPG; Passing Yards, 198 YPG;  Rushing Yards,181 YPG; Scoring Average 24 PPG, Turnovers, 1.25 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 41.4%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 82% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 63%

Defensive Team Data: Texas A&M: Total Yards, 389 YPG; Passing Yards, 248 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 141 YPG; Scoring Average 23 PPG, Turnovers, 1.25 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 30.7%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 78% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 60%

Sully’s Game Simulator: is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will perform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take Oklahoma’s total yards on offense, add it to what A&M gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking A&M’s total offense, add it to what the Sooners give up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards:  Advantage Texas A&M 466 to 448

Passing Yards: Advantage Oklahoma 295 to 258

Rushing Yards: Advantage Texas A&M 208 to 153

Scoring: Advantage Texas A&M 35 to 32

Turnovers: Advantage Oklahoma 1.42 to 1.46

3rd Down Conversions: Advantage Texas A&M 48.4% to 41.4%

Red Zone All Scores: Advantage Texas A&M 85% to 84.5%

Red Zone TD’s Only: Advantage Texas A&M 68% to 65%

Individuals to Watch: Oklahoma: QB, Landry Jones has passed for 3989 yards, 29 TD’s, 10 INT’s, & completed 66% of his passes; Texas A&M: QB, Johnny Manziel led the Aggies rushing attack with 1,181 yards and scored 19 rushing TD’s while passing for 3,419 yards, 24 TD’s to 8 INT’s and completing 68.3% of his passing attempts.

Sully Says: Funny how things change in a year! Oklahoma Football has been long considered to be a better program than Texas A&M’s. Then A&M moves to the SEC, a guy named Manziel comes along and suddenly the college football world’s perception of things is turned upside down! Maybe its the psychological power of the SEC, or better said … the success that A&M has had in the SEC (I wonder how Oklahoma would have done …. if they were the ones to move to the Southeast?) I’m not sure beyond a shadow of doubt how this paradigm has happened … but it is clear the college football gods now favor Texas A&M over the Sooners. That said … I’m not sure I do… Oklahoma gave up 10 fewer yards per game (379 to 389), in the offensive-minded, pass-happy Big 12 than did A&M …. in the defensive-minded, run-oriented SEC! Who is to say, a team like Oklahoma would not enjoy the same type of success that A&M did ….  by forcing the vaunted SEC Defenses’ to play more in space? (unlike the Big Ten ….  the Big 12 offenders run as well as SEC defenders)! Since 2007, here are the results of the head to head games … 07, 42-14 Oklahoma, 08, 66-28 Oklahoma, 09, 65-10 Oklahoma, 2010, 33-19 Texas A&M, & 2011, Oklahoma, 41-25 over A&M! So in 4 of the last 5 meetings, including last year’s game, the Sooners have had their way with the Aggies! What’s different now?….  a perception or a reality? No doubt, Manziel is both different & real … but Oklahoma is not different … is it not …. the same old, same old for them ….when Oklahoma lines up tonight against A&M?. Sully CFP Says … take Oklahoma and the 4.5 points! 

Posted in 2012 / 2013 Bowl Game, Alabama, Florida, Kansas State, LSU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Ole Miss, Texas, Texas A&M |

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl

Bowl History: The Bowl was established in 1971 and has been played annually since that time! From 1971 to 2006 the event was held @ Sun Devil Stadium, in 2007, the game was moved to its present lacation, University of Phoenix Stadium, in Glendale, Arizona. The first game played in this bowl series was between Arizona State & Florida State. The contest was held on December 27, 1971 with the Sun Devils (ASU) beating the Seminoles (FSU), 45-38! Last year’s game pitted Oklahoma State against Stanford, OSU prevailed in OT, 41-38! The Conference tie-ins are the Big 12 & an at large selection, the bowl payout is $17,000,000.00!

Teams: Kansas State: Conference Affiliation: Big 12; Overall Record 11-1, Conference Record 8-1,  vs Oregon: Conference Affiliation: PAC 12; Overall Record 11-1, Conference Record: 8-1, Divisional Record 5-1 (PAC 12’s North Division)  

Bowl Location: Glendale, Arizona … played @ the University of Phoenix Stadium, the seating capacity @ the facility is 72,200. Last year’s game which featured Oklahoma State and Stanford, was attended by 69,927 or 96.85% of U.P. Stadium’s capacity.

Day, Date, & Time: Thursday, 1/3/13 @ 7:30 p.m. CST

Network: ESPN

Best Wins: Kansas State: beat Miami, 52-13, Oklahoma, 24-19, Iowa state, 27-21, West Virginia, 56-16, Texas Tech, 55-24, Oklahoma State, 44-30, TCU, 23-10, & Texas, 42-24; Oregon: beat Fresno State, 42-25, Arizona, 49-0, Washington, 52-21, Arizona State, 42-21, USC, 62-51, & Oregon State, 48-24! These two teams (Oregon & KSU) have beaten more bowl eligible teams (14) than any other two teams playing one another in a 2012 bowl game …. except for the Alabama / Notre Dame game (17)!

Worst Losses: Kansas State: The Baylor loss, a 52-24 pounding that has kept them from a getting a shot @ the championship.  Oregon:  The loss to Stanford, 17-14 in OT, kept them out of the National Championship Game! These teams both experienced their only lost of the season on Novenber 17 … within minutes of one another!

Common Opponents: None

Las Vegas Hotsheet: Oregon -7.5

Offensive Team Data: Kansas State: Total Yards, 410 YPG; Passing Yards, 212 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 198 YPG; Scoring Average 41 PPG, Turnovers, 0.83 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 27.4%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 87% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 63% 

Offensive Team Data: Oregon: Total Yards, 550 YPG; Passing Yards, 226 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 324 YPG; Scoring Average 51 PPG, Turnovers, 1.58 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 47%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 90% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 83%

Defensive Team Data: Kansas State: Total Yards, 375 YPG; Passing Yards, 255 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 119 YPG; Scoring Average 21 PPG, Turnovers, 2.67 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 40.6%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 77% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 50%

Defensive Team Data: Oregon: Total Yards, 381 YPG; Passing Yards, 235 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 146 YPG; Scoring Average 22 PPG, Turnovers, 3.17 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 30.9%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 67% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone 48%

Sully’s Game Simulator: is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will perform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take Oregon’s total yards on offense, add it to what KSU gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking KSU’s total offense, add it to what the Ducks give up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards:  Advantage Oregon 463 to 296

Passing Yards: Advantage Oregon 241 to 224

Rushing Yards: Advantage Oregon 222 to 172

Scoring: Advantage Oregon 36 to 32

Turnovers: Advantage Kansas State 2 to 2.1

3rd Down Conversions: Advantage Oregon 44% to 29%

Red Zone All Scores: Advantage Oregon 84% to 77%

Red Zone TD’s Only: Advantage Oregon 67% to 56%

Individuals to Watch: Kansas State: QB Collin Kline has passed for 2,490 yards 15 TD’s 7 INT’s & has a completed 66% of his attempts. Kline has also rushed for 890 & 22 TD’s! Oregon: QB, Marcus Mariota has completed 70% of his passes for 2,511, 30 TD’s & 6 INT’s. He has also rushed for 690 & 4 TD’s! RB, Kenjon Barner, has rushed for 1624 yards, 21 TD’s, and averages 6.5 yards per carry! Finally De’ Anthony Thomas is a threat to take the the ball the distance any time he touched the rock!

Sully Says: This game could have easily been for the National Championship and along with the Texas A&M / Oklahoma match-up is generating a whole lot of interest! Look for the speed of Oregon to challenge Kansas State early in this game … as it is difficult to duplicate in practice. K-State struggled with Baylor’s up tempo style … wait till they get a load of the Duck’s pace! Sully’s CFP Says …. Oregon wins and covers the 7.5!

Posted in 2012 / 2013 Bowl Game, Alabama, Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Kansas State, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Oregon, Stanford, TCU, Texas, Texas A&M, USC, Washington, West Virginia |

AllState Sugar Bowl

Bowl History: The Sugar Bowl was established in 1935 and along with the Orange  & Sun, is the second oldest bowl behind only the Rose! The first game in this series featured Tulane and Temple, played on January 1,1935. The inaugural game was won by Tulane, 20-14! Last year’s event, the 78th Sugar Bowl, had Michigan outlasting Virginia Tech, 23-20. The Conference tie-ins are the SEC (unless the SEC Champion is in the BCS National Championship Game) and an at large selection! The payout for the Sugar Bowl is $17,000,000.00

Teams:  Florida: Conference Affiliation: SEC; Overall Record 11-1, Conference Record 7-1, Divisional Record 5-1 (SEC’s East Division) vs Louisville:  Conference Affiliation: Big East; Overall Record 10-2, Conference Record: 5-2!

Bowl Location: New Orleans, Louisiana … played @ the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, the seating capacity @ the facility is 73,208. Last year’s game which featured Michigan and Virginia Tech, was attended by 64,512 or 88.12% of Superdome’s capacity.

Day, Date, & Time: Wednesday, 1/2/13 @ 7:30 CST

Network: ESPN

Best Wins: Florida: beat Texas A&M, 20-17, LSU, 14-6, Vandy, 31-17, South Carolina, 44-11, & Florida State, 37-25; Louisville: North Carolina, 39-34, Pittsburgh, 45-35,  Cincinnati,34-31 in OT, & Rutgers, 20-17

Worst Losses: Florida: Georgia, 17-9 kept them out of the SEC Championship and a possible birth in the National Championship game vs ND, Louisville: lost to Syracuse, 45-26 & U-Conn, 23-20 in 3 OT’s!

Common Opponents: Kentucky: Florida beat the Wildcats, 38-0 while Louisville beat Kentucky, 32-15

Las Vegas Hotsheet: Game opened @ Florida -14 has moved to Florida -13

Offensive Team Data: Florida: Total Yards, 355 YPG; Passing Yards, 156 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 200 YPG; Scoring Average 27 PPG, Turnovers, 0.75 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 36.1%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 83% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 52%

Offensive Team Data: Louisville: Total Yards, 426 YPG; Passing Yards, 299 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 127 YPG; Scoring Average 31 PPG, Turnovers, 1.0 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 48.5%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 96% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 68%

Defensive Team Data: Florida: Total Yards, 283 YPG; Passing Yards, 191 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 92 YPG; Scoring Average 13 PPG, Turnovers, 2.67 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 33.1%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 72% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 47%

Defensive Team Data: Louisville: Total Yards, 345 YPG; Passing Yards, 194 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 151 YPG; Scoring Average 24 PPG, Turnovers, 1.75 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 42.4%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 87% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 63%

Sully’s Game Simulator:  is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will perform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take Florida’s total yards on offense, add it to what Louisville gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Louisville’s total offense, add it to what the Gators give up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards:  Advantage Louisville 355 to 350

Passing Yards: Advantage Louisville 245 to 175

Rushing Yards: Advantage Florida 176 to 110

Scoring: Advantage Florida 26 to 22

Turnovers: Advantage Florida 1.25 to 1.84

3rd Down Conversions: Advantage Louisville 40.8% to 39.3

Red Zone All Scores: Advantage Florida 85% to 84%

Red Zone TD’s Only: Advantage Louisville/Florida 57.5% to 57.5%

Individuals to Watch: Florida: Safety, Matt Elam leads a tough Florida defense that ranks third in the country in points allowed this season. The Gators have intercepted 19 passes and allowed only 5 passing TD’s in 2012! RB, Mike Gillislee has rushed for 1100 plus yards and 10 TD to offset a passing game that is, at times, absent! Finally, QB Jeff Driskel, while not being asked to do a whole lot, has done a good job of limiting his mistake from a year ago …  throwing 11 TD’s to 3 INT’s & averaging 19.6 passing attempts for 133.7  yards per game! Louisville: QB, Teddy Bridgewater, the Big East Offensive Player of the Year, has passed for 3,452 yards, 25 TD’s, 7 INT, and completed 69% of his passing attempts! He may also be the toughest guy on the Louisville roster having played with a broken wrist and a sprained ankle. This guy is a winner!

Sully Says: While Louisville’s Teddy Bridgewater is to be respected … it is doubtful that he has seen a defense this year that is anywhere near as good as the one he will line up against tonight! Florida’s front 7 will stop the run (give up 92 rushing yards per game) and pressure Bridgewater by overpowering and or running by Louisville’s O-line. The Cardinals have been on a BCS stage once, in 2007,  and they beat Wake Forest, 24-13. That said …. this is not Wake Forest!! The Gators have appeared in 6 BCS Bowls and are 5-1 in this arena …. only Ohio State and Oklahoma have been to more BCS games!! Florida truly believes that they should be playing for the national championship and will try to make that statement tonight! Sully’s CFP Says… Florida wins and covers the 13… this game will not be close!

Posted in 2012 / 2013 Bowl Game, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Kentucky, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, South Carolina, Syracuse, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt |

Discover Orange Bowl

Bowl History: This Bowl was first played in 1935 and has been held annually since the bowl’s inaugural game!  The initial game was played on January 1, 1935, when Bucknell beat Miami of Florida, 26-0! The Orange Bowl celebrated its 75th anniversary in the 2009 addition of the game, Virginia Tech beat Cincinnati, 20-7 and last year’s game had West Virginia pounding Clemson 70- to 33! The Conference tie-ins are the ACC and Orange Bowl Committee Selection Team! The payout is $17,500,000.,00

Teams: Florida State: Conference Affiliation: ACC; Overall Record 11-2, Conference Record 8-1, Divisional Record 4-1 (ACC’s Atlantic Division) vs Northern Illinois:  Conference Affiliation: MAC; Overall Record 12-1, Conference Record: 9-1, Divisional Record 5-0 (MAC’s West Division)

Bowl Location: Miami Gardens, Florida … played @ the Sun Life Stadium, the seating capacity @ the facility is 75,540. Last year’s game which featured West Virginia and Clemson, was attended by 67,563 or 89.44% of Sun Life Stadium’s capacity.

Day, Date, & Time: Tuesday, 1/1/13 @ 7:30 p.m. CST

Network: ESPN

Best Wins: Florida State: beat Clemson, 49-37, Miami FL, 33-20, Duke, 48-7, Virginia Tech, 28-22 & Georgia Tech 21-15! NIU: Central Michigan, 55-24, Ball Sate 35-23, Toledo, 31-24, & Kent State, 44-37 OT! All nine of these teams were Bowl Eligible!

Worst Losses: FSU: lost to NC State, 17-16; NIU: lost to Iowa, 18-17!

Common Opponents: None

Las Vegas Hotsheet: Game opened @ FSU -14 and has moved to FSU -13!

Offensive Team Data: Florida State: Total Yards, 466 YPG; Passing Yards, 263 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 203 YPG; Scoring Average 40 PPG, Turnovers, 2.0 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 44.3%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 91% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 71%

Offensive Team Data: NIU: Total Yards, 463 YPG; Passing Yards, 231 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 232 YPG; Scoring Average 41 PPG, Turnovers, 1.38 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 48%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 80% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 71%

Defensive Team Data: Florida State: Total Yards, 253 YPG; Passing Yards, 161 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 93 YPG; Scoring Average 15 PPG, Turnovers, 1.54 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 27.7%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 86% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 52%

Defensive Team Data: NIU: Total Yards, 342 YPG; Passing Yards, 209 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 133 YPG; Scoring Average 19 PPG, Turnovers, 1.85 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 41.5%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 65% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 43%

Sully’s Game Simulator: is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will perform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take NIU’s total yards on offense, add it to what FSU gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking FSU’s total offense, add it to what NIU gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards:  Advantage FSU 404 to 358

Passing Yards: Advantage FSU 236 to 196

Rushing Yards: Advantage FSU 168 to 163

Scoring: Advantage FSU 30 to 28

Turnovers: Advantage NIU 1.46 to 1.93

3rd Down Conversions: Advantage FSU 42.9% to 37.9%

Red Zone All Scores: Advantage NIU 83% to 78%

Red Zone TD’s Only: Advantage NIU 62% to 57%

Individuals to Watch: FSU: QB E.J. Manual 3,101 yards, 22 TD’s, 11 INT’s and completed 68% of his attempts, NIU QB, Jordan Lynch, passed for 3,962 yards, 24 TD’s, 5 INT’s while completing 63% . Lynch has also rushed for 1,771 yards, 19 TD’s while averaging 6.2 yards per carry!

Sully Says: the MAC is in a BCS Bowl Game for the first time in their Conference’s history. NIU’s QB has been second only to Clark Kent this season. Jordan Lynch has accounted for almost 6,000 yards running & passing … the problem is the competition he has amassed these numbers against … and how will he do vs the athleticism of FSU’s defense? The general pregame conversation between and among the ESPN talking heads is that Lynch will be just one more good athlete on the field … and nothing beyond that… this should be fun! I, for one, and perhaps … the only one ,… think NIU belongs and that Lynch will open eyes tonight! Sully’s CFP Says …take the 13.5 and NIU!!

Posted in 2012 / 2013 Bowl Game, ACC, Ball State, Central Michigan, Cincinnati, Clemson, Duke, Georgia Tech, Iowa, Kent State, MAC, Miami FL, NC State, Northern Illinois, Toledo, Virginia, Virginia Tech |

Rose Bowl Presented By Vizio

Bowl History: “The Granddaddy of them all” as Keith Jackson used to say every January 1 @ the Rose Bowl! This is the oldest and most prestigious of all the Bowl Games! The game was first played in 1902 (Michigan hammered Stanford, 49-0)  and has been played annually since 1916! The 1916 game featured Washington State & the IVY League’s Brown University, a game won by WSU, 14-0! Last year’s game was won by Oregon, 45-38, over an outstanding Wisconsin team … in one of the most entertaining Rose Bowl’s …. Ever! The tradition rich Bowl has refused to move off its January 1st date and continues to be played in the afternoon! The Conference tie-ins are the PAC 12 & the Big 10! The payout for this BCS Bowl Game is $18,000,000.00

Teams:   Wisconsin: Conference Affiliation: Big 10; Overall Record 8-5, Conference Record 5-4, Divisional Record 3-2 (Big Ten’s Leaders Division) vs Stanford Conference Affiliation: PAC 12; Overall Record 11-2, Conference Record: 9-1, Divisional Record 4-1 (PAC 12’s North Division)

Bowl Location: Pasadena, California … played @ the Rose Bowl, the seating capacity @ the facility is 91,136. Last year’s game which featured Oregon and Wisconsin, was attended by 91,245 or 100.12% of the Rose Bowl’s capacity.

Day, Date, & Time: Tuesday,  1/1/13 @ 4:00 p.m. CST

Network: ESPN

Best Wins: Wisconsin: beat Utah State, 16-14, Purdue, 38-14, Minnesota, 38-13, & Nebraska, 70-31; Stanford: beat Duke, 50-10, USC, 21-14, Arizona, 54-48 in OT, Oregon State, 27-23, & Oregon, 17-14, & UCLA twice 35-17 & 27-24 (PAC 12 Championship Game) All 10 of these teams are playing or have played in the 2012 /13 post season!

Worst Losses:: Wisconsin: Michigan State, 16-13, Ohio State, 21-14, & Penn State, 24-21 … all three of these games were lost in OT! Finally, Oregon State, 10-7 … Nebraska, 30-27  ……  meaning the Badgers lost 6 games by 19 points or worse … 5 games by 12 points! Stanford: lost to ND 20-13 in OT ( the Cardinal need to stop whinnying ,,, Stepfon’s (Taylor) elbow was down ….Check it out on the site  …  on the blog  Page …   Right below ….. Sully’s Big Blog ,,, you will see Categories on red background … use the scroll bar … go to Stanford (18) articles … go to College Football wrap up Week Seven …click on it ….  then scroll down the article and you can clearly see his left elbow hit the ground before he extends the ball)! & … back to Stanford’s other loss …. Washington, 17-13!

Common Opponents: (1) Oregon State: Stanford beat OSU 27-23 while Wisconsin lost to OSU, 10-7!

Las Vegas Hotsheet: Game opened @ Stanford -6.5 and has moved to Stanford -7!

Offensive Team Data:Wisconsin: Total Yards, 400 YPG; Passing Yards, 163 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 238 YPG; Scoring Average 31 PPG, Turnovers, 0.85 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 34.6%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 82% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 65%

Offensive Team Data: Stanford: Total Yards, 377 YPG; Passing Yards, 203 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 173 YPG; Scoring Average 28 PPG, Turnovers, 1.38 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 38.7%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 85% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 60%

Defensive Team Data: Wisconsin: Total Yards, 320 YPG; Passing Yards, 196 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 124 YPG; Scoring Average 19 PPG, Turnovers, 1.15 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 32.5%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 93% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 66%

Defensive Team Data: Stanford: Total Yards, 339 YPG; Passing Yards, 251 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 88 YPG; Scoring Average 17 PPG, Turnovers, 1.38 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 31.4%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 79% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 47%

Sully’s Game Simulator: is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will perform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take Wisconsin’s total yards on offense, add it to what Stanford gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Stanford’s total offense, add it to what Wisconsin gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2 to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards:  Advantage Wisconsin 370 to 349

Passing Yards: Advantage Wisconsin 207 to 200

Rushing Yards: Advantage Wisconsin 163 to 149

Scoring: Advantage Wisconsin 24 to 23.5

Turnovers: Advantage Stanford 1.27 to 1.43

3rd Down Conversions: Advantage Stanford 35.6% to 33%

Red Zone All Scores: Advantage Stanford 89% to 81%

Red Zone TD’s Only: Advantage Stanford 63% to 56%

Individuals to Watch: Wisconsin: RB, Monte Ball 1,730 yards, 21 TD’s & 5.2 yards per carry for the touchdown King! Stanford: RB, Stepfan Taylor, 1,442 yards, 8 TD’s & 4.8 yards per carry! The real interesting battles here will be waged on the line(s) of scrimmage …. between the O & D fronts of the respective teams. The physical nature of this game should be the best of the 2012-13 Bowl season!

Sully Says: Stanford won back to back Rose Bowl’s in 1971 beating Ohio State, 27-17 & in 1972, they stopped Michigan, 13-12 (Stanford was/were the Indians back then).  The last time in the Rose Bowl …  Stanford (the Cardinal … not Cardinals) lost to, none other than …. Wisconsin, 17-9 in 2000! Stanford is, without question, the most physical team in the PAC 12. That said, there is also little question this is a better opponent for Wisconsin … than the speed demons from Oregon! The way Stanford likes to play the game … is a perfect fit for the mind set of any Wisconsin team since Barry arrived in the early 1990’s!  Sully’s CFP Says: Barry Alvarez is the X factor in this game … as a result of his presence on the sideline ……  take the Wisconsin and the 7 points!

Posted in 2012 / 2013 Bowl Game, Arizona, Brown, Duke, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oregon, Oregon State, Penn State, Purdue, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington, Washington State, Wisconsin |

Capital One Bowl

Bowl History: The Capital Bowl has been around since 1947, known as the Tangerine Bowl (1947 to 1982), the Florida Citrus Bowl (1983 to 2002) and the Capital One Bowl 2003 to present! The first game was played on January 1, 1947… in which Catawba beat Maryville, 31-0! Last year’s game was won by South Carolina over Nebraska, 30-13! The Conference tie-ins are the SEC & the Big Ten and the Bowl payout is $4,550,000.00!

Teams: Nebraska: Conference Affiliation: Big 10; Overall Record 10-3, Conference Record 7-2, Divisional Record 5-0 (Big Ten’s Legends Division) vs Georgia Conference Affiliation: SEC; Overall Record 11-2, Conference Record: 7-2, Divisional Record 5-1 (SEC’s East Division)  

Bowl Location: Orlando, Florida … played @ the Citrus Bowl, the seating capacity @ the facility is 65,538. Last year’s game which featured Nebraska and South Carolina, was attended by 61,351 or 93.75% of the Citrus Bowl’s capacity.

Day, Date, & Time: Tuesday, 1/1/13 @ 12 p.m. CST

Network: ABC

Best Wins: Nebraska: Wisconsin 30-27, Northwestern 29-28, Michigan 23-9, Michigan State 28-24, & Minnesota 38-14 … Georgia beat Florida 17-9, Vanderbilt, 48-3, & Georgia Tech, 42-10 …. All eight teams listed here are Bowl eligible!

Worst Losses: Nebraska: Wisconsin, 70-31 (Big Ten Championship Game) & Ohio State, 63-38! Georgia: lost to South Carolina 35-7

Common Opponents: None

Las Vegas Hotsheet: Game opened @ Georgia -8.5 ….  has moved to the Bulldogs @ -10

Offensive Team Data: Nebraska: Total Yards, 462 YPG; Passing Yards, 208 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 255 YPG; Scoring Average 35 PPG, Turnovers, 2.23 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 42.8%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 84% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 62%

Offensive Team Data: Georgia:  Total Yards, 457 YPG; Passing Yards, 276 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 180 YPG; Scoring Average 37 PPG, Turnovers, 1.54 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 47%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 86% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 76%

Defensive Team Data: Nebraska: Total Yards, 343 YPG; Passing Yards, 148 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 195 YPG; Scoring Average 26 PPG, Turnovers, 1.85 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 34.2%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 80% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 55%

Defensive Team Data: Georgia:  Total Yards, 352 YPG; Passing Yards, 170 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 182 YPG; Scoring Average 19 PPG, Turnovers, 1.85 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 32.2%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 71% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 48%

Sully’s Game Simulator: is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will perform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take Georgia’s total yards on offense, add it to what Nebraska gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Nebraska’s total offense, add it to what Georgia gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards:  Advantage Nebraska 407 to 400

Passing Yards: Advantage Georgia 212 to 189

Rushing Yards: Advantage Nebraska 219 to 188

Scoring: Advantage Georgia 32 to 27

Turnovers: Advantage Georgia 1.7 to 2.0

3rd Down Conversions: Advantage Georgia 41% to 38%

Red Zone All Scores: Advantage Georgia 83% to 78%

Red Zone TD’s Only: Advantage Georgia 66% to 55%

Individuals to Watch: Nebraska: QB, Taylor Martinez passed for 2.667 yards (21 TD’s to 10 INT’s) while rushing for 927 yards (10 TD’s & 5.6 yards per carry). Georgia: QB, Aaron Murray passed for 3,466 yards, 31 TD’s, 6 INT’s & completed 65% of his attempts! LB, Jarvis Jones, the SEC’s Defensive Player of the Year … will be getting to know Martinez & Co. up close and personal as this game progresses!

Sully Says: Neither of these teams are coming into this game with much to smile about … regarding on how their respective season’s ended! Georgia was a tipped pass away from possibly playing in the BCS National Championship Game. Not only that, but Florida, a team Georgia beat (17-9) was selected over them to play in the Sugar Bowl! Dawgs … Not happy campers!! Meanwhile, Nebraska was annihilated by the Wisconsin Badgers in the Big Ten Championship game, 70-31! So these teams roll into the Capital One Bowl  …. in these respective emotional states: Georgia comes in heartbroken while the Huskers stumble in embarrassed! Sully Says … Georgia is the better team … Coach Richt is from Nebraska  he will fire up the troops … the Dawgs win & cover the 10 spot!

Posted in 2012 / 2013 Bowl Game |

Outback Bowl

Bowl History: The bowl was established in 1986 as the Hall of Fame Bowl (1986-94) renamed in 1995 …. through 2013 to the Outback Bowl. The first game was played on December 23,1986, Boston College beat Georgia, 27-24. Last year’s game featured Michigan State & Georgia, a game won in OT by the Spartans, 33-30! The Bowl conference tie-ins are the SEC & the Big Ten … the bowl payout is $6,800,000.00!

Teams: Michigan   Conference Affiliation: Big 10; Overall Record 8-4, Conference Record 6-2, Divisional Record 4-1 (Big Ten’s Legends Division) vs South Carolina: Conference Affiliation: SEC; Overall Record 10-2, Conference Record: 6-2, Divisional Record 5-1 (SEC’s East Division)

Bowl Location: Tampa, Florida … played @ the Raymond James Stadium, the seating capacity @ the facility is 65,908. Last year’s game which featured Michigan State and Georgia, was attended by 49,424 or 75% of Raymond James Stadium’s capacity.

Day, Date, & Time: Tuesday, 1/1/13 @ 12:00 p.m CST

Network: ESPN

Best Wins: Michigan: beat Michigan State, 12-10, & Northwestern, 38-31 in OT: South Carolina: beat Vanderbilt, 17-13, Georgia, 35-7, & Clemson, 27-17!

Worst Losses: Michigan: lost in every big game they played … other than the MSU game… Bama, 41-14, ND 13-6, Ohio State, 26-21, & Nebraska, 23-9; South Carolina: LSU, 23-21 & Florida, 44-11!

Common Opponents: None

Las Vegas Hotsheet: The game opened @ South Carolina -6 and has stayed right @ USC -6

Offensive Team Data: Michigan: Total Yards, 385 YPG; Passing Yards, 198 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 187 YPG; Scoring Average 30 PPG, Turnovers, 2.08 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 51.3%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 93% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 63%

Offensive Team Data: South Carolina: Total Yards, 373 YPG; Passing Yards, 230 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 143 YPG; Scoring Average 31 PPG, Turnovers, 1.58 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 43.4%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 83% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 65%

Defensive Team Data: Michigan: Total Yards, 311 YPG; Passing Yards, 155 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 156 YPG; Scoring Average 19 PPG, Turnovers, 1.42 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 36.3%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 83% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 45%

Defensive Team Data: South Carolina: Total Yards, 312 YPG; Passing Yards, 193 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 119 YPG; Scoring Average 17 PPG, Turnovers, 1.83 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 36.4%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 72% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 44%

Sully’s Game Simulator: is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will perform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take Michigan’s total yards on offense, add it to what USC gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking USC’s total offense, add it to what Michigan gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards:  Advantage Michigan 349 to 342

Passing Yards: Advantage Michigan 196 to 193

Rushing Yards: Advantage Michigan 153 to 150

Scoring: Advantage South Carolina 25 to 24

Turnovers: Advantage South Carolina 1.5 to 1.9

3rd Down Conversions: Advantage Michigan 43.85% to 39.85%

Red Zone All Scores: Advantage South Carolina 83% to 82.5%

Red Zone TD’s Only: Advantage South Carolina 55% to 54%

Individuals to Watch: Michigan: Denard Robinson is returning home for his final game as a Wolverine …. he will be fired-up! Where he will play is the interest …. Q,B, WR, RB, or all three? .. Stay Tuned! South Carolina: Jadeveon Clowney may be the best football player in the country… he and Robinson on the field @ the same time is worth the price of admission and  … then some!

Sully Says: Another battle between the Big Ten and the SEC … although of late … better described as routs (South Carolina 30-13 over Nebraska, Alabama hammered Michigan State 49-7 , Mississippi State bombed Michigan, 52-14); as the SEC teams seem to be a quarter second or so quicker then their counterparts in the Big Ten! Sully’s CFP Game Simulator has the game as a statistical tie, 4 to 4 (see above)! Sully Says … the Gamecocks have to much team speed for the Wolverines …. Carolina wins and covers the 6! 

Posted in 2012 / 2013 Bowl Game |

Heart of Dallas Bowl

Bowl History: The Heart of Dallas Bowl was formally known as the Ticket City Bowl. The game was first played on January 1, 2011, Texas Tech survived Northwestern, 45-38, while last year’s game (2012 …sounds strange … does it not) pitted Houston against Penn State, Cougars beat the Lions, 30-14! Conference tie-ins Big Ten / Big 12 …. & …. in 2013 …. Big Ten / C-USA! The Bowl payout is $1,200,000.00

Teams: Oklahoma State: Conference Affiliation: Big 12; Overall Record 7-5, Conference Record 5-4, vs Purdue: Conference Affiliation: Big Ten; Overall Record 6-6, Conference Record: 3-5, Divisional Record 2-3 (Big Ten’s Leaders Division)

Bowl Location: Dallas, Texas … played @ the Cotton Bowl, the seating capacity @ the facility is 92,100. Last year’s game which featured Houston and Penn State, was attended by 46,817 or 50.83% of the Cotton Bowl’s capacity.

Day, Date, & Time: Tuesday, 1/1/13 @ 11:00 a.m. CST

Network: ESPNU

Best Wins: OSU: beat West Virginia, 55-34, Texas Tech, 59-21, ISU, 31-10 & TCU, 36-14; Purdue: did not beat a team that had a winning record in 2012!

Worst Losses: OSU: lost to Oklahoma 51-48 in OT, & Arizona 59-38; Purdue: lost to # 1 ND, 20-17 & undefeated Ohio State in OT, 29-22!

Common Opponents: None

Las Vegas Hotsheet: The game opened @ Oklahoma State -14.4 and has moved to OSU -17

Offensive Team Data: Oklahoma State: Total Yards, 549 YPG; Passing Yards, 333 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 216 YPG; Scoring Average 45 PPG, Turnovers, 1.83 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 47.1%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 92% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 67%

Offensive Team Data: Purdue: Total Yards, 406 YPG; Passing Yards, 241 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 165 YPG; Scoring Average 30 PPG, Turnovers, 1.83 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 40.2%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 79% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 64%

Defensive Team Data:Oklahoma State: Total Yards, 426 YPG; Passing Yards, 286 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 141 YPG; Scoring Average 29 PPG, Turnovers, 1.42 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 36.5%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 78% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 57%

Defensive Team Data: Purdue: Total Yards, 407 YPG; Passing Yards, 228 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 179 YPG; Scoring Average 29 PPG, Turnovers, 2.08 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 41.5%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 87% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 63%

Sully’s Game Simulator: is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will perform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take OSU’s total yards on offense, add it to what Purdue gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Purdue’s total offense, add it to what OSU gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards:  Advantage  OSU 478 to 416

Passing Yards: Advantage OSU 281 to 264

Rushing Yards: Advantage OSU 198 to 153

Scoring: Advantage OSU 37 to 30

Turnovers: Advantage Purdue 1.63 to 1.96

3rd Down Conversions: Advantage OSU 44.3% to 38.4%

Red Zone All Scores: Advantage OSU 90% to 79%

Red Zone TD’s Only: Advantage OSU 65% to 61%

Individuals to Watch: Oklahoma State: WR, Josh Stewart, 1,154 yards, 8 TD’s, and an average of 11.0 yards per catch; QBs J.W. Walsh & Clint Shelf have passed for a combined 2800 plus yards & 23 TD’s to 9 INT’s. Shelf will start against Purdue! Purdue: QBs, Caleb TerBush & Robert Marve have passed for 2600 plus yards and 25 TD’s to 11 INT’s!

Sully Says: Purdue Coach Danny Hope (22-27 in his 4 seasons) was fired at the completion of the 2012 season …. rarely a good thing for bowl preparation; and on the negative side for Oklahoma State, they lost their last two regular season games (Oklahoma & Baylor). So neither team is high stepping into this game! The Game Simulator is all over Oklahoma State … favoring them in seven of the eight categories! Sully’s CFP says …. Ok State wins this game … the 17 points is the question …. given the fact that Purdue played Ohio State & ND to the wire suggest that 17 is to many for the Cowboys to be giving … while having new leadership on the sideline says 17 is not enough … Sully Says … Oklahoma State wins but does not cover!

Posted in 2012 / 2013 Bowl Game |

Taxslayer.com Gator Bowl

Bowl History This Bowl was established in 1946 and has been played continuously since its inception. It is the sixth oldest and the first Bowl to ever be televised! The first game was played on January 1, 1946 between Wake Forest and South Carolina …. a game won by Wake, 26-14. Last year’s game saw Florida outlast Urban Meyer’s new team, Ohio State, 24-17! The current Bowl tie-ins are the SEC & Big Ten and the game’s payout is $7,000,000.00.

Teams: Northwestern: Conference Affiliation: Big 10; Overall Record 9-3, Conference Record 5-3, Divisional Record 3-2 (Big Ten’s Legends Division) vs Mississippi State: Conference Affiliation: SEC; Overall Record 8-4, Conference Record: 5-3, Divisional Record 3-3 (SEC’s East Division)

Bowl Location: Jacksonville, Florida … played @ the Gator Bowl, the seating capacity @ the facility is 77,510. Last year’s game which featured Florida and Ohio State, was attended by 61,312 or 79.10% of the Gator Bowl’s capacity.

Day, Date, & Time: Tuesday, 1/1/13 @ 11:00 a.m. CST

Network: ESPN 2

Best Wins: Northwestern: beat Syracuse 42-41, Vanderbilt, 23-13, Michigan State, 23-20, & Minnesota, 21-13; MSU: did not beat an FBS team that qualified for a bowl game in 2012!

Worst Losses: Northwestern: Michigan, 38-31 in OT & PSU, 38-29; MSU: Ole Miss 41-24

Common Opponents: None

Las Vegas Hotsheet: Game opened @ MSU -1 …. moved to Northwestern -2  …. and then back to MSU -1!

Offensive Team Data: Northwestern: Total Yards, 398 YPG; Passing Yards, 167 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 231 YPG; Scoring Average 32 PPG, Turnovers, 1.25 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 45.2%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 88% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 61%

Offensive Team Data: Mississippi State: Total Yards, 388 YPG; Passing Yards, 248 YPG;  Rushing Yards,140 YPG; Scoring Average 30 PPG, Turnovers, 1.17 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 36.2%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 77% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 62%

Defensive Team Data: Northwestern: Total Yards, 385 YPG; Passing Yards, 262 YPG; Rushing Yards, 124 YPG; Scoring Average 23 PPG, Turnovers,1.83 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 42.6%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 80% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 56%

Defensive Team Data: Mississippi State Total Yards, 390 YPG; Passing Yards, 224 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 166 YPG; Scoring Average 22 PPG, Turnovers, 2.5 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 40.9%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 79% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 53%

Sully’s Game Simulator: is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will perform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take MSU’s total yards on offense, add it to what Northwestern gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Northwestern’s total offense, add it to what MSU gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards:  Advantage: Northwestern 397 to 387

Passing Yards: Advantage: MSU 255 to 196

Rushing Yards: Advantage: Northwestern 199 to 132

Scoring: Advantage: Northwestern 27 to 26.5

Turnovers: Advantage: MSU 1.5 to 1.88

3rd Down Conversions: Advantage: Northwestern 43.05% to 39.45

Red Zone All Scores: Advantage: Northwestern 84% to 79%

Red Zone TD’s Only: Advantage: MSU 59% TO 57%

Individuals to Watch: Northwestern: RB, Venric Mark, who has rushed 1310 yards, 11 TD’s, & a 6.2 average per carry; MSU: QB, Tyler Russell has passed for 2,791 yards, 22 TD’s, 6 INT’s & completed 59.8% of his attempts.

Sully Says: This is the one game the Big Ten is favored in against the Mighty SEC (well…. at least for a while … the $ flow has moved the line back to MSU -1)! This back and forth flow of who is favored has nothing to do with football … but rather with the bean counters getting their 10% of the wagered dollars!! Northwestern was favored, …. @ least in part, due to the fact (as mentioned) that MSU did not beat a team that qualified for a bowl game this season (2012). This surprised me ….  as they won their first 7 games of the 2012 season before dropping three in a row to Bama, Texas A&M, & LSU! Sully’s CFP Game Simulator likes Northwestern in 5 of the 8 categories assessed (see above). Finally, the Wildcats are trying to win their first bowl game … since winning the 1949 (that’s right … 1949) Rose Bowl!! Northwestern Coach, Pat Fitzgerald has guided his team to five straight bowl and has come up empty each time …. Sully’s CFP Says…. Take the Cats over the Dogs (MSU is/are the Bulldogs) and give NW the point!

Posted in 2012 / 2013 Bowl Game, Big Ten, Florida, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Mississippi State, Northwestern, Ohio State, Ole Miss, SEC, South Carolina, Syracuse, Vanderbilt, Wake Forest |

Chick-fil-A Bowl

Bowl History: The Chick-fil-A Bowl  …. was established in 1968 and the game has been played annually since that time! This bowl was first called the Peach Bowl and later the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl! The first game in this bowl series took place on December, 30, 1968 … LSU beat Florida State, 31-27; last year’s game featured, Auburn and Virginia, a game won by the Tigers (Auburn), 43-24! . The conference tie-ins are SEC /ACC& the Bowl Pay out is $3,900,000.00 to the ACC & $2,900,000.00 to the  SEC!

Teams: Clemson: Conference Affiliation: ACC; Overall Record 10-2, Conference Record 7-1, Divisional Record 4-1 (ACC’s Atlantic Division) vs LSU: Conference  Affiliation: SEC; Overall Record 10-2, Conference Record: 6-2, Divisional Record 4-1 (SEC’s West Division)

Bowl Location: Atlanta, Georgia … played @ the Georgia Dome, the seating capacity @ the facility is 71,228. Last year’s game which featured Auburn and Virginia, was attended by 72,919 or 102.37% of the Georgia Dome’s capacity.

Day, Date, & Time: Monday, 12/31/12 @ 6:30 p.m. CST

Network: ESPN

Best Wins: Clemson: beat Georgia Tech 47-31,Virginia Tech, 38-17, Duke, 52-20, & NC State, 62-48; LSU: beat Washington, 41-3, South Carolina, 23-21, Texas A&M, 24-19, Mississippi State, 37-17, & Ole Miss, 41-35 … –all nine of these teams made it to the post-season!

Worst Losses: Clemson: Lost to Florida State, 49-37 & South Carolina, 27-17 … these games are that they must win …  if they are who …. they would like us to think the are!!! LSU: lost to a 12-1 Alabama  21-17  …. & …. a 11-1 Florida , 14-6!

Common Opponents: (2) South Carolina Clemson lost to the Gamecocks, 27-17 while LSU beat the USC, of the South, 23-21 & Auburn Clemson beat the Tigers, 26-19 while LSU survived AU, 12-10!

Las Vegas Hotsheet: The Game opened @ LSU -3.5 and has moved to LSU -5!

Offensive Team Data: Clemson: Total Yards, 518 YPG; Passing Yards, 292 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 227 YPG; Scoring Average 42 PPG, Turnovers, 1.58 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 51.9%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 94% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 74%

Offensive Team Data: LSU: Total Yards, 387 YPG; Passing Yards, 207 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 180 YPG; Scoring Average 30 PPG, Turnovers, 1.33 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 41.4%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 84% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 50%

Defensive Team Data: Clemson: Total Yards, 411 YPG; Passing Yards, 250 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 161 YPG; Scoring Average 25 PPG, Turnovers, 1.83 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 34.7%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 73% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 51%

Defensive Team Data: LSU: Total Yards, 297 YPG; Passing Yards, 194 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 103 YPG; Scoring Average 17 PPG, Turnovers, 2.58 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 30.3%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 77% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 61%

Sully’s Game Simulator: is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will perform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take Clemson’s total yards on offense, add it to what LSU gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking LSU’s total offense, add it to what Clemson gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards:  Advantage Clemson 408 to 399

Passing Yards: Advantage Clemson 243 to 229

Rushing Yards: Advantage LSU 171 to 165

Scoring: Advantage Clemson 30 to 28

Turnovers: Advantage LSU 1.58 to 2.08

3rd Down Conversions: Advantage Clemson 41.1% to 38.5%

Red Zone All Scores: Advantage Clemson 86% to 79%

Red Zone TD’s Only: Advantage Clemson 68% to 51%

Individuals to Watch: Clemson: QB, Tajh Boyd, WRs Sammy Watkins & DeAndre Hopkins and RB, Andre Ellington are all play-makers / differences makers for the Clemson Tigers   LSU: QB, Eric Mettenburger has passed for 2,489 yards, 11 TD’s, 6 INT’s and completed 59% of his attempts. RB Kenny Hilliard is averaging 5.7  yards per carry & Jeremy Hill  is averaging 4.9 yards per carry … they have scored 6 & 10 TD’s respectively. LSU’s  Defensive Linemen … Barkevious Mingo, Sam Montgomery, Bennie Logan …. LB, Kevin Minter, & FS, Eric Reed are more then up to the challenge of dealing with Clemson offensive fire-power!

Sully Says: This is a clear showdown of offense vs defense …. Clemson the  irresistible offensive force against LSU the immovable defensive object! LSU enters the game having won its last three games, while Clemson lost its season ending game against in-state rival South Carolina, 27-17! Clemson has scored 37 or more points 10 times while LSU has allowed more than 22 once this season. These teams have only played twice in their storied histories, the most recent in 1996 in this bowl… then called the Peach Bowl … LSU won, 10-7! This match-up, along with the Cotton Bowl’s, Texas A&M vs Oklahoma are as good or better than any BCS Bowl ….  save the ND – Bama Game! Sully’s CFP Says …. take LSU and give Clemson the high 5 in points! 

Posted in 2012 / 2013 Bowl Game |