Sully's Big Blog! Commentary on College Football, Weekly Games, And Strange Statistics!

AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl

Bowl History: The Independence Bowl became one of the First Bowls to recognize the significance of using a sponsor’s name in the official bowl title  …..  to generate more $’s in off-setting the economic costs of running a college football bowl game! Thus born … the Poulan Weed-Eater Independence Bowl in 1990 ( a side effect, however unintended, of using this particular sponsor …. was that the fans began referring to  second tier bowls as “Weedwhacker Bowls”) There have been a host of sponsors for the Independence Bowl: Weedeater (1990-96), Sanford (1998-2000), MainStay Investments (2001-03), PetroSun (2006-07), … AdvoCare Car (2009 to present)! The current … official …. name for the Bowl is …. AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl! The first game featured, McNeese State (a member of the Southland Conference and a FCS Affiliate … 63 scholarships awarded as opposed to a FBS program that gives 85 Scholarship … this game took place before the current rules/guidelines were in place) 20  vs Tulsa 17, played on December 13, 1976! Last year’s game had Missouri (then Big 12 …. now SEC) pounding North Carolina (ACC), 41-24, on December 26, 2011! The Bowl conference tie-ins are the SEC & ACC and the Bowl Payout is $1,100,000. 00!

Teams: Ohio: Conference Affiliation: MAC; Overall Record 8-4, Conference Record 4-4, Divisional Record 3-3 (East Division of the MAC)   ….  vs ….   Louisiana Monroe:  Conference Affiliation: Sun Belt; Overall Record 8-4; Conference Record 6-2 !

Bowl Location: The AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl is played in Shreveport, Louisiana! The hosting arena is Independence Stadium, which has a seating capacity of 53, 000! That said, last year’s game’s (2011) actual attendance was 41,728 or 78.73% of capacity!

Day, Date, & Time: Friday, 11/28/2012 @ 1:00 p.m.

Network: ESPN

Best Wins: Ohio: beat Penn State, 24-14 on opening day, 9/1/12; Louisiana Monroe: stopped 8th ranked Arkansas ( @ a time when people thought that they would/could compete in the SEC West) 34-31 in OT.

Worst Losses:  Ohio: lost three in a row to end the season ….Bowling Green 26-14, @ Ball State 52-27, and @ Kent State, 28-6!  Louisiana Monroe: lost two close games to Auburn 31-28 & Baylor 47-42 … wins here and ULM would have been ranked in the Nation’s Top 25 …… could of / should of won them both!

Common Opponents: None…

Las Vegas Hotsheet: This game opened at ULM -6 and has moved to ULM -7!

Offensive Team Data: Ohio: Total Yards, 436 YPG; Passing Yards, 234 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 202 YPG; Scoring Average 31 PPG, Turnovers, 0.67 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 42.5%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 79% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 50%

Offensive Team Data: Louisiana Monroe: Total Yards, 441 YPG; Passing Yards, 295 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 146 YPG; Scoring Average 36 PPG, Turnovers, 1.33 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 47.9%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 83% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 74%

Defensive Team Data: Ohio: Total Yards, 396 YPG; Passing Yards, 230 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 166 YPG; Scoring Average 26 PPG, Turnovers, 1.83 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 44.7%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 91% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 71%

Defensive Team Data: Louisiana Monroe: Total Yards, 407 YPG; Passing Yards, 272 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 136 YPG; Scoring Average 28 PPG, Turnovers, 2.0 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 42.6%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 78% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 62%

Sully’s Game Simulator: is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will perform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take Ohio’s total yards on offense, add it to what ULM gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking ULM’s total offense, add it to what Ohio gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards:  Advantage: Ohio 421 to 419

Passing Yards: Advantage: ULM 263 to 253

Rushing Yards: Advantage: Ohio 169 to 156

Scoring: Advantage: ULM 31 to 30

Turnovers: Advantage: Ohio 1.34 to 1.58

3rd Down Conversions: Advantage: ULM 46.3% to 42.6%

Red Zone All Scores: Advantage: ULM 87% to 79%

Red Zone TD’s Only: Advantage: ULM 73% to 56%

Individuals to Watch: Louisiana’s QB, Kolton Browning, is a rising star in the college game; passing for 2830 yards … 27 TD’s to 7 picks ….despite missing almost two full games they (ULM) went 7-2 in their last 9 games … you got it .. the two he missed… they lost …. ULL 40-24 (injured in this game) & Arkansas State 45-23! He was also their leading rusher 441 yards and 7 TD’s … ULM will go as Browning goes … No Question!! Brent Leonard has emerged as Browning favorite target,  catching 97 balls (7th best in the country) for 1,042 yards & 10 TD’s! Ohio will hit back through the likes of Beau Blankenship (2nd Team All-MAC), the nations 10th leading rusher ….  averaging 125 yards per game!  While the Bobcat’s QB, Tyler Tettleton, has thrown for 2513 yards, 16 TD’s & 3 INT’s!

Sully Says: ULM comes in riding a 2 game winning streak (North Texas, 42-16 & FIU, 23-17 in OT) while Ohio stumbles in having lost three in a row (see worst losses)! You have to give the coaching edge to Ohio’s, Frank Solich, as he has been there & done that (114-63 including this year’s 8-4 overall record …..  in his 6 years at Nebraska …. he was 58-19 & then … those dopes fired him)!  Meanwhile, Todd Berry, ULM’s Coach, has just experienced his first winning season at ULM (8-4 /career record including this year is 22-55 … @ ULM 17-19) Check out ULM in Red Zone penetration / scoring TD’s  …. significantly better than Ohio,  ULM 74% to Ohio 50% (see Offensive Game Data Above) for the season and when compared to/against one another (in the Game Simulator Above) …. the gap remains significant 73% for the Warhawks to the Bobcats 56%. This fact and Browning’s play … leads to  ….  Sully’s CFP saying …. ULM will win and Cover the 7 spot!

Posted in 2012 / 2013 Bowl Game |

Bridgeport Education Holiday Bowl

Bowl History: First … This Holiday Bowl is not to be confused with the one played in Saint Petersburg, Florida (1957 to 1960) … the current Holiday Bowl is played in San Diego, California @ Qualcomm Stadium and is not connected to the former Bowl in any way, shape, or form! The present day …  Holiday Bowl … was founded in 1978 and has been played annually since its inception. There have been a host of sponsors: SeaWorld (1986-90), Thrifty Car Rental (1991-94), Plymouth (1995-97), Culligan (1998-2001), Pacific Life Insurance Company (2002-09) and finally …. Bridgepoint Education (2010 to present)! The current … official …. name for the Bowl is …. Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl! The first game pitted Navy against BYU, a game won the by the Midshipmen, 23-16, on December 22, 1978! The defending Champion from last year’s game is Texas, who beat UCLA, 21-10, on December 28, 2011! The Bowl conference tie-ins are the Big 12 & PAC 12 and the Bowl Payout is $2,350,000. 00!

Teams: Baylor: Conference Affiliation: Big 12; Overall Record 7-5; Conference Record 4-5! ….  vs …. UCLA: Conference Affiliation: PAC 12; Overall Record 9-4; Conference Record 6-4 (including Conference Championship Game); Divisional Record 5-0 (South Division)

Bowl Location: The Bridgepoint Holiday Bowl is played in San Diego, California! The game itself is played @ Qualcomm Stadium, which has a seating capacity of 70, 561! That said, last year’s game’s (2011) actual attendance was 56,313 or 79.81% of capacity!

Day, Date, & Time:Thursday, 12/27/2012 @ 8:45 CST

Network: ESPN

Best Wins: Baylor: beat, the undefeated (10-0) & the # One Ranked Team in the country, Kansas State, 52-24, Oklahoma State, 41-34, Texas Tech, 52-45 in OT, & SMU 59-24; UCLA: beat Nebraska, (Big Ten’s Legends Champ), 36-30, Rice, 49-20, USC, 38-28, Arizona State, 45-43, & Arizona, 66-10. All 9 of these teams are playing in bowls!

Worst Losses: Baylor: lost to TCU, 49-21, Texas, 56-50, Oklahoma, 42-34, Iowa State, 35-21, & West Virginia, 70-63! (Baylor went 4-5 in the Big 12 … but 9 of the Big 12’s 10 teams are playing in Bowl games … only Kansas is home for the Holidays) UCLA: lost to Stanford twice, 35-17 ( Regular Season) & 27-24 (Championship Game ….. cost them the Rose Bowl), & California, 43-17…. a real bad loss given the season Cal had in 2012 (3 wins & Coach fired)!

Common Opponents: None … both Big’s (PAC & 12) play 9 game conference schedules and only 3 Non-conference Games … Most conferences play 8 in-house (conference games) and 4 Non-conference … so these teams are less likely to play a common opponent.

Las Vegas Hotsheet: Opened with Baylor -1 … has now flipped to UCLA @ -1 …. Dollar flow favored UCLA …. so the ‘Vegas Juice Boys’ ….  about-faced …. to protect their 10% ….  this adjustment has nothing  to do with football … just those dopes & their ‘Chump Change!!! ( Ok …. Alright … a few million dollars of ‘Chump Change’) This is clearly a pick ’em’ game! My advice … Stay away from this one…. You would be better off buying Ocean Front Property in Arizona…U know…. the San Andreas Big One & All!

Offensive Team Data: Baylor: Total Yards, 570 YPG; Passing Yards, 349 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 221 YPG; Scoring Average 44 PPG, Turnovers, 2.0 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 47.0%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 82% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 63%

Offensive Team Data:UCLA: Total Yards, 472 YPG; Passing Yards, 269 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 203 YPG; Scoring Average 35 PPG, Turnovers, 1.92 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 41.0%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 83% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 63%

Defensive Team Data: Baylor: Total Yards, 523 YPG; Passing Yards, 326 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 197 YPG; Scoring Average 38 PPG, Turnovers, 1.75 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 55.4%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 84% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 71%

Defensive Team Data: UCLA: Total Yards, 410 YPG; Passing Yards, 255 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 155 YPG; Scoring Average 26 PPG, Turnovers, 2.23 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 32.1%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 89% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 66%

Sully’s Game Simulator:  is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will perform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take UCLA’s total yards on offense, add it to what Baylor gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Baylor’s total offense, add it to what UCLA gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards:  Advantage: UCLA 498 to 490

Passing Yards: Advantage: Baylor 303 to 298

Rushing Yards: Advantage: UCLA 200 to 188

Scoring: Advantage: UCLA 37 to 35 

Turnovers: Advantage:UCLA 1.84 to 2.12

3rd Down Conversions: Advantage: UCLA 48.2% to 39.6%

Red Zone All Scores: Advantage: Baylor 86% to 84%

Red Zone TD’s Only: Advantage: UCLA 67% to 65%

Individuals to Watch: Baylor: QB Nick Florence is the nation’s leader in total offense, rushed for 637 yards and passed for 4,121 yards / 396 yards per game (averages out to 387.6 when you factor in rush losses of 106 yards). Florence passed for 31 TD’s to 13 INT’s and completed 61.2% of his attempted passes!  WR, Terrence Williams, led the entire country in receiving yards @ 1,764 total yards ….  for an average of 147.0 yards per game, and 18.6 yards per catch! Williams caught 12 passes for TD’s this season as well! UCLA will counter with an every down RB in the NFL …. Johnathan Franklin, …. the Bruins all time leading rusher @ 4,369 career yards. This year, Franklin has said hello & good bye to defense’s… as he has dashed & smashed for 1,700 yards … an average of 6.3 yards per carry while scoring 13 TDs! QB, Brent Hundley has completed 68% of his passes this season … while passing for 3,411 yards & 26 TD’s to 11 INT’s! His 26 TD’s are the second most in UCLA history … not done yet … he also rushed for 365 yards and scored 9 rushing TD’s! This kid can play!! Did I mention he is a red-shirt freshman … move over Johnny Football! Finally … on defense … UCLA’s Junior LB,  … Anthony Barr …. led the nation in sacks with 13.5 and while Sophomore Linsbacker ….  Eric Kendricks was fifth in the nation in tackles accounting for 137!

Sully Says: Jim Mora (UCLA) & Art Briles (Baylor) have both done great jobs this year at the respective universities! Mora took over a UCLA program … where the seniors thought it was “cool” to have a senior skip day … the last week of practice. Mora has restored a toughness that has been lacking @ UCLA for far too long! Briles lost a Heisman Trophy winner and several other key players from a team that beat both Oklahoma & Texas (think about Baylor beating Oklahoma, Texas, & wining the Heisman all in the same year) … so for an encore ,… what is Briles to do?  I got it …. beat the# 1 team in the country .. & not just beat .. Hammer them, 52-24!! As far as predicting a winner in this game … here are some facts A) UCLA is the most penalized team in the country (probably related to Mora’s telling them they are/were soft) 124 penalties for a whopping 1,222 penalty yards ! B) Baylor averages about 100 yards MORE per game than the Bruins , C) UCLA gives up over a 100 yards LESS than Baylor on Defense! D) Both teams turn the ball over roughly the same …  two times per game E) Baylor scores about 9 more points than UCLA (44 to 35) … but gives up about 12 more (38 to 26) per game!  F) In the Red Zone the teams are almost identical … Baylor scores 83% to UCLA 82% (all scores in the RZ TD & FG) …… both teams score TD’s 63% of the time that they enter the Red Zone! G) The Big 12 is probably a better Conference than the PAC 12 top to bottom … but the PAC 12’s top teams Oregon & Stanford are, at least, arguably better than the Big 12’s best! … Since Oregon & Kansas State play … we will get a partial answer to the accuracy of that thinking. H) Baylor rolls into this game having won 3 in a row, Kansas State 54-22, Texas Tech 52-45 in OT, & Oklahoma State 41-34 … while UCLA has lost two in a row to Stanford! Sully’s CFP Says …. The difference in this game will occur on 3rd down … Baylor cannot stop anyone on 3rd down … opponents are successful 55%  of the time when facing a 3rd down situation … Given that…. UCLA will/should be able to keep their offense … and Baylor’s defense …. on the field  … UCLA’s defense  is getting off the field 67.9% of the time when defending 3rd down …. as they allow a 32.1% 3rd down conversion rate! Based on that fact … Sully says …Take UCLA, give Baylor the point … and finally…. if you bet this game … you have two options … Pray or Drink!! 

Posted in 2012 / 2013 Bowl Game, Baylor, Big 12, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, PAC 12, Stanford, TCU, Texas Tech, UCLA, USC, West Virginia |

Belk Bowl

Bowl History: This Bowl was first played in 2002, the NCAA certified the Bowl as the Queen City Bowl …. even though it has never been called that …. it remains the Official Name of the bowl! The Queen City Bowl has been known as the Continental Tire Bowl …2002 through 2004 … Meineke  Care Car Bowl …. 2004 – 2010 …. and when Belk took over sponsorship in 2011 …. the Belk Bowl. The Bowl tie-ins are ACC vs Big East! On December 28, 2002, the inaugural game was played between Virginia & West Virginia …. won by Virginia, 48-22! Last year’s game (2011) featured North Carolina State against Louisville…NC State prevailed, 31-24! The Belk Bowl payout is 1.7 million per team!

Teams: Cincinnati: Conference Affiliation: Big East; Overall Record 9-3, Conference Record 5-2  vs Duke: Conference Affiliation: ACC; Overall Record 6-6; Conference Record 3-5, Divisional Record 2-3 (Coastal Division)

Bowl Location: Charlotte, North Carolina …. Game played at Bank of America Stadium. Stadium Capacity is 73,778 leaving the 2011 attendance of 58,427 @ 79.19% of the Arena’s capacity!

Day, Date, & Time: Thursday, 12/27/2012 @ 5:30 CST

Network: ESPN

Best Wins: Cincinnati: beating Virginia Tech, 27-24 on September 29th …. Duke: their victory over North Carolina, 33-30, on October 20th!

Worst Losses: Cincinnati: their loss to Toledo, 29-23 … Cincy came into the game unbeaten …. failure to beat either Rutgers (10-3) or Louisville (34-31 in OT) ….a win in either of these games …. Cincy would have won the Big East outright! Duke: was hammered by Florida State (48-7), Clemson (56-20), Va Tech (41-20), & G-Tech (42-24)!

Common Opponents: Virginia Tech …. Cincinnati beat the Hokies, 27 to 24 while Duke lost to V-Tech, 42-24!

Las Vegas Hotsheet: Game opened at Cincinnati -10.5  …… has fallen to a flat -7

Offensive Team Data: Cincinnati: Total Yards, 431 YPG; Passing Yards, 231 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 200 YPG; Scoring Average 31 PPG, Turnovers, 1.58 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 43.5%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 83% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 63%

Offensive Team Data: Duke: Total Yards, 397 YPG; Passing Yards, 278 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 119 YPG; Scoring Average 31 PPG, Turnovers, 1.42 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 33.9%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 85% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 58%

Defensive Team Data: Cincinnati: Total Yards, 374 YPG; Passing Yards, 244 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 130 YPG; Scoring Average 17 PPG, Turnovers, 2.0 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 37.8%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 71% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 41%

Defensive Team Data: Duke: Total Yards, 464 YPG; Passing Yards, 262 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 202 YPG; Scoring Average 35 PPG, Turnovers, 1.92 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 42.4%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 72% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 50%

Sully’s Game Simulator: is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take Duke’s total yards on offense, add it to what Cincinnati gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Cincy’s total offense, add it to what Duke gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards:  Advantage: Cincinnati 448 to 386

Passing Yards: Advantage: Duke 261 to 247

Rushing Yards: Advantage: Cincinnati 201 to 125

Scoring: Advantage: Cincinnati 31 to 24

Turnovers: Advantage: Duke 1.71 to 1.75

3rd Down Conversions: Advantage: Cincinnati 42.95 to 35.85

Red Zone All Scores: Advantage: Duke 78% to 77.5%

Red Zone TD’s Only: Advantage: Cincinnati 56.5% to 49.5%

Individuals to Watch: Duke’s QB, Sean Renfree has passed for 2755, 18TD’s, 8 INT’s and a 66.3% completion rate; WR, James Crowder 70 receptions for 1025 yards, 8 TD’s and a 14. 6 average per catch & fellow WR, Corner Vernon, who needs 45 yards to top the 1000 yard receiving mark. Cincinnati’s RB, George Winn, who rushed for 1204 yards on 227 carries, for an average of 5.3 yards per carry & 12 TD’s & QB, Brendon Kay, who took over for a struggling Munchie Leguax, in November.

Sully Says: Duke has not gone bowling since 1994 … an 18 year drough …. their record during this time period was 37-158, including winless seasons in 1996, 2000, 2001 & 2006! To say that Duke has stumbled into the post-season in 2011 would be an understatement … as the Blue Devils lost 4 straight to end the season. Cincinnati, which finished the season in a four way tie for the Big East Championship, has been in Bowls 6 of the last seven seasons. Their Coach, Butch Jones, will not lead the Bearcats in the bowl as he has moved on to take the Tennessee job. Texas Tech Coach, Tommy Tuberville, has accepted the the vacated Cincy Position …. but will not coach the team in the bowl game! Defensive line coach, Steve Stripling, will lead the team @ the December 27th event! Sully’s CFP Says …. Cincy is better than Duke … no question …. Cincinnati will win and cover!

Posted in 2012 / 2013 Bowl Game, AAC, ACC, Cincinnati, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech |

Military Bowl presented by Northrup Grumman

Bowl History: This bowl was founded in 2008, previously known as the EagleBank Bowl (in its’ planning stages it was to be called the Congressional Bowl … played @ DC’s RFK). EagleBank is a Washington D.C. financial institution which sponsored the first two games (2008 & 2009) until Northrup Grumman, one of the worlds largest defense contractors, took over sponsorship in 2010. They renamed the event …. the Military Bowl presented by Northrup Grumman …. that same year! The conference tie-ins are the ACC vs C-USA, Navy or Army. The first game in this bowl was played on December 20, 2008 between Navy & Wake Forest …. Wake won 29-19! Last year’s (2011) winner Toledo crashed-landed … but survived Air Force, 42-41! Bowl Payout …. $ 1,000,000.00 per team

Teams: San Jose State Conference Affiliation: Western Athletic (WAC), Overall Record 10-2, Conference Record 5-1 … finished 2nd in the WAC behind Utah State vs Bowling Green Conference Affiliation: Mid-American (MAC) Overall Record, 8-4, Conference Record, 6-2, and Divisional Record 5-1 (East Division of the MAC).

Bowl Location: Washington D.C. The Military Bowl is played at RFK Stadium  with a seating capacity of 56,692 for football (baseball 45,596)! Last year’s (2011) was 25,042

Day, Date, & Time: Thursday, 12/27/2012 @ 2:00 p.m. CST

Network: ESPN

Best Wins: SJSU (San Jose State) beat a 7-1 SDSU (San Diego State) the Tri-Champ of the Mountain West Conference, 38 to 34, a bowl bound, BYU, 20-14, & a bowl eligible … but not bowling  Louisiana Tech, 52 to 43 … these Dopes from Louisiana were trying to get more money  .. told the Independence Bowl committee that they needed more time to consider their options ….  and ….  as a result of NIU bumping Oklahoma out of the Orange Bowl  …. a domino effect put Iowa State in the Liberty Bowl the one that LT wanted & and suddenly …. 40 teams with weaker records are in Bowls …while LT is at home counting “Chump Change”! Bowling Green’s, 26-14, victory over a very good Ohio team!

Worst Losses: SJSU …. a 20 to 17 loss to Stanford …. a win here and San Jose State is on the national radar & a 49 to 27 pounding by the WAC Champion, Utah State! BGU’s loss @ Va Tech, 37-0, a game where the Falcons not only failed to compete …. they didn’t show up!

Common Opponents: None

Las Vegas Hotsheet: Opened with SJSU -8 and has fallen to 7

Offensive Team Data: San Jose State: Total Yards, 452 YPG; Passing Yards, 327 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 124 YPG; Scoring Average 35 PPG, Turnovers, 1.92 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 44.8%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 81% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 58%

Offensive Team Data: Bowling Green Total Yards, 375 YPG; Passing Yards, 196 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 178 YPG; Scoring Average 23 PPG, Turnovers, 1.42 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 37.9%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 63% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 49%

Defensive Team Data: San Jose State: Total Yards, 351 YPG; Passing Yards, 228 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 124 YPG; Scoring Average 21 PPG, Turnovers, 2.58 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 33.3%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 76% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 56%

Defensive Team Data: Bowling Green Total Yards, 307 YPG; Passing Yards, 210 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 97 YPG; Scoring Average 16 PPG, Turnovers, 1.75 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 31%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 79% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 50%

Sully’s Game Simulator: is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take SJSU’s total yards on offense, add it to what BGU gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking BGU’s total offense, add it to what SJSU gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards:  Advantage: SJSU 380 to 363

Passing Yards: Advantage : SJSU 269 to 212

Rushing Yards: Advantage: BGU 151 to 111 

Scoring: Advantage: SJSU 26 to 22 

Turnovers: Advantage: SJSU 1.8 to 2.0

3rd Down Conversions: Advantage : SJSU 37.9% to 35.6%

Red Zone All Scores: Advantage: SJSU 80% to 70%

Red Zone TD’s Only: Advantage: SJSU 54% to 53%

Individuals to Watch: San Jose’s QB, Davis Fales is lights out at his position …. Fales has passed for 3,798 yards, 31 TD’s, 9 INT’s, & completed 72% of his passes! BGU will counter at QB with, Mark Schilz, who has passed for 2,426 yards, 14 TD’s 12 INT’s, with a relatively weak 56.1 completion percentage. Neither teams has a 1,000 / plus yard rusher …. SJSU’s feature back is De’Leon Eskridge, who has carried the rock 194 times, for 992 yards, 10 TD’s, & a 5.1 yards per carry; while BGU’s go to back is Anthon Samual, who has rushed for 966 yards, on 185 rushing attempts, 10 TD’s and a 5.2 yards gained per attempt!

Sully Says:  San Jose State is perhaps the best story of the 2012 college football season. Given all the chatter about the Mayan Calendar … maybe it was about the Spartans the whole time …. rising from the ashes …. rebirth …. from previous seasons! A ten win season, that included a 20-17 battle with a top ten team in Stanford, and a top 25 ranking ….. were not to be found anywhere as the experts spewed their predictions in preseason publications … NOWHERE …. could you find this kind of season for San Jose being projected! SJSU is better than BGU … in every phase of the game …. Sully’s CFP says San Jose wins & covers!

Posted in 2012 / 2013 Bowl Game, MAC, Mountain West, San Diego State, SWAC, Utah State |

Little Caesars Pizza Bowl

Bowl History: The Bowl game was established in 1997 and was known as the Motor City Bowl until 2009 when Little Caesars took over sponsorship. The first five games (1997 to 2001) were played @ the Silverdome in Pontiac, Michigan, before being moved in 2002 to Fords Field in downtown Detroit. The Conference Tie-ins are the MAC and Big Ten… with the alternate being the Sun Belt. The first game in this bowl series took place on December 26, 1997… Ole Miss beat Marshall 34 to 31 and last year’s (2011) defending Champ Purdue, snuck by Western Michigan, 37-32. This year’s match-up pits the Sun Belt against the Mid-American.

Teams: Western Kentucky: Conference, Sun Belt; Overall Record 7-5; Conference Record 4-4;  .. vs .. Central Michigan: Conference, Mid American; Overall Record 6-6; Conference Record, 4-4; Divisional Record, West Division 1-4

Bowl Location: Detroit, Michigan …. the game is played annually @ Fords Field, which has a seating capacity of 65,000! The largest crowd to attend this bowl was in 2007 @ the Purdue /Central Michigan Game …. 60,624 were present …. for what turned out to be the best game as well …. a 51 to 48 Purdue win.

Day, Date, & Time: Wednesday, 12/26/12 @ 6:30 p.m.

Network: ESPN

Best Wins: Central Michigan; beat Iowa 32-31 , a loss that the Hawks never seemed to recover from … going 2-6 the rest of the way and don’t forget that Iowa…. beat …. Orange Bowl bound …. Northern Illinois, 18-17! While Western Kentucky beat Kentucky, 32-31 in OT (right … same score as Central’s victory over Iowa) as well as, handling the Sun Belt Champion, Arkansas State, 26-13!

Worst Losses: Western Kentucky lost to (3-9 Overall / 2-6 conference) Florida Atlantic 37-28 … Central Michigan lost to Western Michigan, a 2-6 MAC team, 42-31!

Common Opponents: None

Las Vegas Hotsheet: Opened at 6 …the Almighty Dollar flow has driven it down to 5

Offensive Team Data: Western Kentucky Total Yards, 392 YPG; Passing Yards, 206 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 186 YPG; Scoring Average 29 PPG, Turnovers, 2.0 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 48%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 81% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 65%

Offensive Team Data: Central Michigan Total Yards, 377 YPG; Passing Yards, 232 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 145 YPG; Scoring Average 29 PPG, Turnovers, 1.17 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 38.7%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 89% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 64%

Defensive Team Data: Western Kentucky Total Yards, 344 YPG; Passing Yards, 206 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 138 YPG; Scoring Average 26 PPG, Turnovers, 1.83 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 41.1%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 83% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 61%

Defensive Team Data:  Central Michigan Total Yards, 416 YPG; Passing Yards, 239 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 177 YPG; Scoring Average 33 PPG, Turnovers, 1.5 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 43.5%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 87% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 66%

Sully’s Game Simulator:  is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take CM’s total yards on offense, add it to what WKU gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking WKU’s total offense, add it to what Central Michigan gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards:  Advantage WKU 404 to 361

Passing Yards: Advantage WKU 223 to 219

Rushing Yards: Advantage WKU 182 to 142

Scoring: Advantage WKU 31 to 28

Turnovers: Advantage CM 1.5 to 1.75

3rd Down Conversions: Advantage WKU 45.8% to 38.9%

Red Zone All Scores: Advantage CM 86% to 84%

Red Zone TD’s Only: Advantage WKU 66% to 63%

Individuals to Watch: CU’s QB Ryan Radcliff had passed for 2905 yards, 21 TD’s, 9 picks, & a 59% completion rate. He has two able receivers, Titus Davis (43 receptions, 860 yards, 8 TD’s & 20 yards per catch) & Cody Wilson ( 64 receptions, 739 yards, 2 TD’s, & 11.5 yards per catch). Central featured RB is, Zurlon Tipton, who has rushed for 1,391 yards, on 229 carries, while averaging 6.1 yards per carry and scoring 19 TD’s (2 more TD’s and Tipton will become CU’s all time single season leader)! Western Kentucky counters  with RB, Antonio Andrews, who has rushed for 1,609 yards, on 277 carries for and average of 5.6 yards  per carry and 11 TD’s! Andrews is challenging Barry Sanders NCAA Record for All-Purpose Yards as he has amassed 957 return yards this season for a total (receptions added in) of 2,977! Andrews needs 274 all purpose yards in this bowl game to break Sanders all tine record of 3,250, set in Barry’s Heisman year of 1988! STAY TUNED!!

Sully Says: For a Ho-hum bowl game this one has some interesting sideline stories. Tipton & Andrews chance to set records, as well as who will not play, Quanterus Smith, Sun Belt Defensive Player-of-the-Year, out with a knee injury. He will be missed! At least arguably, the MAC is better than the Sun Belt this season Toledo, NIU, Ball State, Ohio, Bowling Green, & Kent State all bowl eligible in 2012! …. AND …The Game is being played in CU’s back yard, Detroit with Central riding a three game win streak …. in which they have averaged 35 points per game! So things are looking good for the Chippewas in this game …  or …. is Lee Corso in the room as I hear …. not so fast my friend! CU’s three season ending wins were against Eastern Michigan, 34-31, Miami of Ohio, 30-16, & Massachusetts 42-12, three of the weakest teams in the MAC. Further, CU did not beat a FBS team with a winning record this season This marks the first ever Bowl game for Western Kentucky … meaning …. they could care less where the game is being played… Detroit ….  Kokomo …. would/will not matter to the Hilltoppers … they will be sky high! Sully’s CBP says .. look for WKU to win but not cover!

Posted in 2012 / 2013 Bowl Game, Arkansas State, Ball State, Iowa, Kent State, MAC, Northern Illinois, Ohio, Sun Belt, Toledo, Western Michigan |

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl

Bowl History: This Bowl came into existence in 2002 and has been played every year since its inception @ Aloha Stadium, Honolulu, Hawai’i! The game is played either on Christmas Day or on Christmas Eve Day (one exception … in 2007, the game was played on the 23rd of December)! The Bowl’s 1st sponsor was ConAgra Foods, for one year only, 2002, the next year (2003) Sheridan Hotels & Resorts Hawai’i took over and have sponsored the event every year since 03!  The first Hawaii Bowl was played on December 25, 2002, the game featured Hawaii and Tulane, the Green Wave beat the Warriors, 36-28 in front of 35,513 fans! The 2011 defending Champ is Southern Miss (Please note …. Southern Miss did not a game this year), who survived Nevada, 24-17, on Christmas Eve Day! The Bowl Tie-ins are the WAC (2002 through 2011), C-USA (2005, 2007, & 2009 to Present) & in 2006 & 2008 the PAC 12 had the tie-in with the Western Athletic Conference! The Bowl Payout is $500,000.00 Per team!

Teams: Fresno State: Mountain West Conference, Overall Record, 9-3, Conference Record 7-1 (Tri-Champion of the MWC with San Diego State & Boise State), the MWC does not have Divisional Play! Southern Methodist (SMU) Conference Affiliation …. C-USA, Overall Record 6-6, Conference Record 5-3 & Divisional Record 3-2 in the West Division!

Bowl Location: Aloha Stadium, Honolulu, Hawaii! The Capacity of Aloha Stadium is 50,000.The Stadium has four movable parts that allow the arena to be reconfigured to meet the event’s needs …. A Concert, Football Game, Baseball Game etc…. It was the first sports stadium in the U.S. to have such a feature! The largest crowd ever to be @ the Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl was in 2010, 43,673 were present to see Hawaii take on Tulsa (Tulsa won the game 62-35) on Christmas Day Eve!

Day, Date, & Time: Monday, December 24, 2012, @ 7:00 p.m.

Network: ESPN

Best Wins: Fresno State: Pounded PAC 12 member, Colorado, 62-14, beat the Tri-Champion of the MWC, San Diego State (Boise State & Fresno State all were 7-1) , 52-40, & hammered Nevada, 56-32  …. who just fell in the Gildan New Mexico Bowl to Arizona 49 to 48! SMU No question their season-ending victory over C-USA Champion, Tulsa, 35-27 was their most impressive win, especially when you consider they needed that win to become bowl eligible!

Worst Losses: Fresno State its loss to Boise State, 20-10, marked the 6 straight time they have fallen to the Broncos, SMU’s had a  series of opportunities to step up against quality competition, instead they allowed themselves to be stepped on …. Baylor, 59-24, Texas A&M, 48-3,& TCU 24-16.

Common Opponents: One …. Tulsa …. The Golden Hurricanes beat Fresno State 27-26 and lost to SMU 35-27!

Las Vegas Hotsheet: The game line opened with SMU getting 11.5 and has now moved to 12 … this has nothing to due with injury or team related issues … only the flow of the dollars..

Offensive Team Data: Fresno State: Total Yards, 489 YPG; Passing Yards, 323 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 167 YPG; Scoring Average 40 PPG, Turnovers, 1.33 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 41.4%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 83% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 65%

Offensive Team Data: SMU: Total Yards, 366 YPG; Passing Yards, 237 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 129 YPG; Scoring Average 30 PPG, Turnovers, 1.75 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 38.5%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 77% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 49%

Defensive Team Data: Fresno State: Total Yards, 336 YPG; Passing Yards, 179 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 156 YPG; Scoring Average 22 PPG, Turnovers, 2.75 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 33.2%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 77% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 63%

Defensive Team Data: SMU: Total Yards, 401 YPG; Passing Yards, 272 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 129 YPG; Scoring Average 27 PPG, Turnovers, 2.67 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 41.6%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 75% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 67%

Sully’s Game Simulator:  is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take FSU’s total yards on offense, add it to what SMU gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking SMU’s total offense, add it to what Fresno State gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards:  Advantage Fresno State 445 to 351

Passing Yards: Advantage Fresno State 298 to 208

Rushing Yards: Advantage Fresno State 148 to 143

Scoring: Advantage Fresno State 34 to 26

Turnovers: Advantage Fresno State 2 to 2.25

3rd Down Conversions: Advantage Fresno State 42% to 36%

Red Zone All Scores: Advantage Fresno State 79% to 77%

Red Zone TD’s Only: Advantage Fresno State 66% to 56%

Individuals to Watch: Fresno State QB, Derek Carr has passed for  3,742 Yards, 37 TD’s, 5 INT’s and completed 68% of his passes. While FSU RB, Robbie Rouse has rushed for 1,468 yards, 14 TD’s, and is averaging 5.5 wards per carry. SMU will counter at QB with Texas transfer, Garrett Gilbert, who will be making his first bowl appearance since playing in the National Championship Game back in 2010! Garrett has thrown for 2,720 yards, 14 TD’s & 13 INT’s while completing a weak 53.1%. SMU’s RB, Zack Line has run the ball for 1207, 12 TD’s, & has averaged 4.7 yards per carry

Sully Says: High confidence in Fresno’s ability to carry the day in this game. Unlike the Nevada / Arizona … where we had little faith in Sully’s CFP Game Simulator… the exact opposite in this match-up! Sully says take Fresno and give the 12 points to SMU … Fresno Rolls…

Posted in 2012 / 2013 Bowl Game, Baylor, Boise State, C-USA, Fresno State, Mountain West, San Diego State, TCU, Texas |

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl

Bowl History: This bowl was established in 2001 with Wyndham Hotels & Resorts sponsoring the game from 2002 through 2004, during that time the bowl was officially known as the Wyndham New Orleans Bowl. In 2005, due to damage by Hurricane Katrina, the Superdome was unavailable and the game site was moved to Cajun Field on the University of Louisiana Lafayette’s Campus. In 2006, R&L Carriers took over sponsorship and have presented the Bowl to/through the present!.  The inaugural game was played on December 18, 2001, Colorado State beat North Texas, 45-20. The defending champ from the 2011 rendition is UL Lafayette, who beat San Diego State, 32-30, in front of the largest crowd to attend any of Wyndham or R&L New Orleans Bowls, ….. 42, 841! The Mercedes-Benz Superdome capacity is 73,208.  Conference Tie-ins, Sun Belt & C-USA (Mountain West back-up)  and payout per team is $500.000.00!

Teams: East Carolina: Conference, C-USA, Overall Record 8-4, Conference Record 7-1, Divisional Record 4-1 vs Louisiana Lafayette: Conference, Sun Belt; Overall Record, 8-4; Conference Record 6-2 … Sun Belt does not have Divisional play!

Bowl Location: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, in New Orleans, Louisiana is the home site of the game . R&L Carriers, the sponsor of the bowl, is a global transportation service company. As mentioned, the game has been played every year at the Superdome since its conception in 2001, with the lone exception of 2005, due to damage …done to the Superdome by Hurricane Katrina!

Day, Date, & Time: Saturday, 12/22/2012 @ 11:00 A.M.

Network: ESPN

Best Wins: East Carolina: Other than their win over Appalachian State (an 8-4 FCS Team) 35-13, the Pirates did not beat a FBS team that posted a winning record in 2012. Not one! Louisiana Lafayette: Beat  ULM (8-4), 40-24 an in-state rival (ULM beat Arkansas 34-31 in OT and lost to Auburn 31-28 in OT) got by Western Kentucky (7-5), 31-27. Both ULM & WKU are preparing to play in bowl games!

Worst Losses: EC played four teams with winning records and were hammered in everyone of these games, South Carolina, 48-10, North Carolina, 27-6, Navy, 56-28, & conference foe, UCF, 40-20! ULL loss to North Texas (4–8), 30-23, was a surprise to say the least! The Cajuns were pounded by Oklahoma State, 65-24 & Sun Belt Champion, Arkansas State, 50-27!

Common Opponents: Tulane: ULL pounded the Green Wave, 41-13 …. while East Carolina squeaked by TU, 28-23!

Las Vegas Hotsheet:The line opened with ULL giving 4.5 … now at -6 due to money flow…

Offensive Team Data: East Carolina: Total Yards, 408 YPG; Passing Yards, 273 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 135 YPG; Scoring Average 31 PPG, Turnovers, 1.75 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 44.3%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 92% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 71%

Offensive Team Data: Louisiana: Total Yards, 444 YPG; Passing Yards, 256 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 187 YPG; Scoring Average 35 PPG, Turnovers, 1.67 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 37.8%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 94% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 77%

Defensive Team Data: East Carolina: Total Yards, 417 YPG; Passing Yards, 272 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 146 YPG; Scoring Average 31 PPG, Turnovers, 1.67 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 39.9%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 81% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 62%

Defensive Team Data: Louisiana: Total Yards, 428 YPG; Passing Yards, 284 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 144 YPG; Scoring Average 28 PPG, Turnovers, 1.67 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 41.8%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 88% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 59%

Sully’s Game Simulator: is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take EC’s total yards on offense, add it to what ULL gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Louisiana’s total offense, add it to what East Carolina gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards:  Advantage Louisiana  431 to 418

Passing Yards: Advantage East Carolina 279 to 264

Rushing Yards: Advantage Louisiana 167 to 140

Scoring: Advantage Louisiana 33 to 30

Turnovers: Advantage Louisiana 1.67 to 1.71

3rd Down Conversions: Advantage East Carolina 43.05% to 38.85%

Red Zone All Scores: Advantage East Carolina 90% to 88%

Red Zone TD’s Only: Advantage Louisiana 70% to 65%

Individuals to Watch: East Carolina’s QB, Shane Carden, passed for 2,838 yards, 21 TD’s, 9 INT’s and completed 67% of his passes. EC’s RB, Vintavious Cooper, has rushed for 1, 030, scored 7 TD’s, & averages 5.4 yards per carry! Louisiana’s Free Safety, Rodney Giles, is among the nation’s leaders in interceptions with 5 this season. ULL’s QB, Terrance Broadway has passed for 2,526 yards, 16 TD’s, 8 INT’s & completed 65.4 % of his passes. Broadway is also a threat to run … rushing for 661 yards this season!

Sully Says: Just cannot exercise the fact from my mind that EC has not beaten a single FBS team with a winning record in 2012! Seven of their eight wins came against teams that that were at or below 500 and their lone win against a team with a winning record was recorded vs an FCS (63 scholarship program) team, Appalachian State! East Carolina is 5-7 all time in bowl games, their last win was in 2007, @ the Hawaii Bowl on a last second FG vs Boise State! EC has lost three straight bowl games since that last second kick! These teams have met ten times with ULL winning six of these encounters! In Fact, the last time EC beat ULL, 20-10 … was in 1990 ( actually that’s last time they played) when ULL was not ULL but rather … known as Southwestern Louisiana. Sully Says … Truth is often a simple thing.   ULL is a better club than EC ….  and will not only beat the Pirates … Louisiana will cover the 6 points …and then some!

Posted in 2012 / 2013 Bowl Game, Arkansas State, C-USA, North Carolina, Oklahoma State, South Carolina, Sun Belt, ULM |

Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl

Bowl History: This Bowl began in 2008 (formally known as the magicJack Saint Petersburg Bowl) today the official name of the bowl  is … St.Petersburg Bowl presented by Beef ‘O’ Brady. The first game was played between South Florida & Memphis on 12/20/2008, a game won by USF, 41-14! The defending champ, Marshall, beat Florida International, 20-10 in last year’s (2011) game! The bowl tie-ins are … Big East & Conference-USA (with the MAC or SUN Belt as back ups) when teams from these respective leagues are available for selection. Bowl Payout …. $500,000.00 per team!

Teams: Central Florida; Conference-USA, Overall Record, 9-4, Conference Record, 7-1 (Lost Conference Championship Game … so 7-2), Divisional Record, West Division 5-0 …  vs …. Ball State; Mid-American Conference (MAC) Overall Record 9-3, Conference Overall Record, 6-3, Divisional Record; West Division 4-1

Bowl Location: The game is played at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida. The stadium was originally designed for baseball and has housed the Tampa Bay Rays (Formally known as the Devil Rays) since their inaugural season of 1998! The highest attended game (28,793) was the second of four Beef ‘O’ Brady Bowls played thus far; in that game, UCF (Central Florida) was hammered by Rutgers, 41-24, on December 19, 2009! The capacity of Tropicana Field is 43,772!

Day, Date, & Time: Friday, December 21, 2012, @ 6:30 p.m. CST

Network: ESPN

Best Wins: Central Florida: The only team that UCF beat that had a winning record in 2012 was East Carolina, 8-5, whom they pounded, 40-20! Ball State: Beat Indiana, 41-39, out of the Big 10, got by South Florida, 31-27, from the Big East … two opponents from BCS Conferences … The Cardinals also beat a 9-3 Toledo, 34-37 and an 8-4 Ohio, 52-27!

Worst Losses: Central Florida: Tulsa …. twice … 23-21 in the regular season and an overtime affair, 33-27 in C-USA Championship Game! UCF stepped up twice to take on BCS opponents and were knocked back both times … Ohio State, 31-13 & Missouri, 21-16! Ball State: NIU (Northern Illinois) 35-23 and Kent State, 45-43 … these two losses stopped them from being in the MAC Championship Game! B-State was also man-handled by Clemson, 52-27!

Common Opponents: None!

Las Vegas Hotsheet: Opened and Remained at UCF -7

Offensive Team Data: Central Florida: Total Yards, 401 YPG; Passing Yards, 222 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 179 YPG; Scoring Average 35 PPG, Turnovers, 1.23 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 47.1%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 84% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 71% 

Offensive Team Data: Ball State: Total Yards, 471 YPG; Passing Yards, 257 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 214 YPG; Scoring Average 35 PPG, Turnovers, 1.33 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 47.8%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 85% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 61%

Defensive Team Data: Central Florida: Total Yards, 380 YPG; Passing Yards, 219 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 162 YPG; Scoring Average 22 PPG, Turnovers, 1.92 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 41%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 73% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 57%

Defensive Team Data: Ball State: Total Yards, 460 YPG; Passing Yards, 254 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 206 YPG; Scoring Average 32 PPG, Turnovers, 1.17 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 41.9%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 84% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 67%

Sully’s Game Simulator:  is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take UCF’s total yards on offense, add it to what Ball State gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Ball State’s total offense, add it to what UCF gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards:  Advantage UCF 431 to 426

Passing Yards: Advantage  Neither 238 to 238

Rushing Yards: Advantage UCF 193 to 188

Scoring: Advantage UCF 34 to 29

Turnovers: Advantage UCF 1.2 to 1.6

3rd Down Conversions: Advantage UCF 44.5% to 44.4%

Red Zone All Scores: Advantage UCF 84% to 79%

Red Zone TD’s Only: Advantage UCF 69% to 59%

Individuals to Watch: Keith Wenning, Ball Sate QB, passed for 2,878 yards, 10.32 Yards Per Completion, 22 TD’s, 10 INT’s & a 65% completion rate. Jahwan Edwards, Ball State, RB, rushed for 1,321 Yards, 14 TD’s, 6.06 Yards Per Attempt & 110 yards per game. Quincy McDuffie, Kick-off returner from UCF, leads the nation with 17 returns for 582 total yards, average return … 34.24 yards and has taken 3 to the house (Touchdowns)

Sully Says: Sully’s CFP Game Simulator really likes UCF in this game … so do we! The Knights will out athlete the Cardinals and C-USA is typically / consistently a better league than the MAC   .. although … this is the best depth the MAC has had in along while and, in fact, their league (MAC) may be as good or even better this year than C-USA. That said, I saw Central Florida’s games with OSU and Missouri and they played right with them and could have won either of those games. Sully’s CFP Says UCF will beat a pesky Ball State and cover the 7 points! 

Posted in 2012 / 2013 Bowl Game, AAC, Ball State, Big Ten, Indiana, Kent State, MAC, Missouri, Northern Illinois, Ohio, Ohio State, South Florida, Toledo |

MAACO Bowl Las Vegas

Bowl History: The Bowl (formally known as the Las Vegas Bowl) was founded in 1992 has been played every year since its inception! The current conference tie-ins are with the PAC 12 & Mountain West Conferences! The first game in 1992 found Bowling Green beating Nevada, 35-34 while the defending Champ, Boise State (who beat Arizona State last year, 2011, 56-24) will be making its third straight appearance in the MAACO Bowl! Payout per team is $1,000,000.00!

Teams : Washington; PAC 12 Conference, Overall Record 7-5 /  Conference Record, 5-4 Divisional Record 3-2 in the North Division…vs Boise State; Mountain West Conference; Overall Record 10-2 / Conference Record 7-1 …MWC does not have Divisional Play!

Bowl Location:  The MAACO Bowl is played annually in Las Vegas, Nevada @ Sam Boyd Stadium (actually in Whitney, Nevada) which has a capacity to seat 40,000 fans! The game’s highest attendance came in 2006, BYU vs Oregon, 44,615 fans attended this Battle … won by BYU, 38-8!

Day, Date, & Time: Saturday, 12/22/2012, 2:30 p.m.

Network: ESPN

Best Wins: Boise State beat a very good defensive team in BYU, 7-6 & MWC Tri-champion, Fresno State, 20-10! While Washington handed PAC 12 Champion, Stanford, their only conference loss, 17-13 and beat a very good Oregon State, 20-17 (The Beavers beat the Badgers … the other Rose Bowl participant)

Worst Losses: Washington … OT loss, 31-28, to Washington State … no question their worst loss… on many levels! Boise State .. Lost to a good but under-achieving Michigan State, 17-13 and then fell to San Diego State, 21-19, a loss that kept them from winning MWC Championship out right !

Common Opponents:  One common opponent; San Diego State … Washington beat the Aztec’s, 21-12 and Boise State lost to SDSU, 21-19!

Las Vegas Hotsheet: Opened BSU -7.5 now @ -5…

Offensive Team Data: Boise State: Total Yards, 390 YPG; Passing Yards, 217 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 173 YPG; Scoring Average 30 PPG, Turnovers, 1.25 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 45.2%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 80% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 59% 

Offensive Team Data: Washington: Total Yards, 352 YPG; Passing Yards, 207 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 145 YPG; Scoring Average 24 PPG, Turnovers, 2.08 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 38.2%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 74% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 66% 

Defensive Team Data: Boise State: Total Yards, 305 YPG; Passing Yards, 163 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 141 YPG; Scoring Average 15 PPG, Turnovers, 2.75 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 41.8%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 66% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 62%

Defensive Team Data: Washington: Total Yards, 354 YPG; Passing Yards, 186 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 168 YPG; Scoring Average 24 PPG, Turnovers, 2.58 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 37.4%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 82% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 48% 

Sully’s Game Simulator:  is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take BSU’s total yards on offense, add it to what Washington gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Washington’s total offense, add it to what BSU gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards:  Advantage; Boise State 372 to 329

Passing Yards: Advantage; Boise State 202 to 185

Rushing Yards: Advantage; Boise State 171 to 143

Scoring: Advantage; Boise State 27 to 20

Turnovers: Advantage; Boise State 1.92 to 2.42

3rd Down Conversions: Advantage; Boise State  41.3 to 40.0

Red Zone All Scores: Advantage; Boise State 81% to 70%

Red Zone TD’s Only: Advantage; Washington 64% to 54%

Individuals to Watch: Boise State’s QB, Joe Southwick, passed for 2,466 yards, 17 TD, 7 INT’s, and completed 66.7 percent of his passes, while Washington’s Quarterback, Keith Price threw for 2,486 yards, 18 TD, 11 INT’s & completed 61.8% of his attempts! At running back, BSU’s D.J. Harper, rushed for 1,065 yards, 15 TD’s and 5.0 yards per carry as compared to Washington’s RB, Bishop Sankey, who countered with 1,234 total yards rushing, 15 TDs & a 4.8 yards per carry

Sully Says: Surprisingly, the Huskies & Broncos have met only once, in 2007, when Jake Locker led Washington to a 24 to 10 victory! This lost ended BSU’s 14 game win streak and pay back may be on Coach Petersen’s mind! Washington is coming of a terrible, season-ending loss to Washington State, 31-28 in OT and is anxious to right the ship, while the Broncos finished the season with two blow out wins, 49-14 over Hawaii & 42 to 14 over Colorado State! Washington’s Defensive Coordinator, Justin Wilcox, is no stranger to Boise’s HC Chris Petersen, as he served in that same position for the Broncos from 2006 to 2009, helping BSU win two Fiesta Bowls. This clearly gives the Huskies an edge in preparation. While Sully’s CFP Game Simulator really likes Boise State … one must remember those numbers were not earned in the PAC 12 … but rather were established in the Mountain West! Given Washington’s superior schedule, Wilcox’s insight into specific nuances of Boise’s offense & defensive tendencies, and slight edge in talent… Sully’s Says Take the points and Washington!  

Posted in 2012 / 2013 Bowl Game, Big Ten, Boise State, Michigan State, Mountain West, Oregon State, PAC 12, San Diego State, Stanford, Washington, Washington State |

San Diego County CU Poinsettia Bowl

Bowl History: The original Poinsettia Bowl was first played in 1952 and featured the champions of the Eastern and Western Military Bases against one another. Bolling Air Force Base defeated San Diego Naval Training Center, 35-14, on December 20, 1952! This format was followed through 1955, the bowl was cancelled after the 55 game! The Poinsettia Bowl was resurrected in 2005, with the intent to involve the military academies on an annual basis … when and if Bowl eligible. In 2005, Navy beat Colorado State, 51-30, last year’s game featured TCU and Louisiana Tech, a game won by TCU, 31-24! The 2008 game, between #11 (TCU) and 9th ranked (Boise State) was the highest rated pre-Christmas Bowl game ever on ESPN – TCU 17 Boise State 16! Poinsettia Bowl Pay out, $500,000.00 per team

Teams: BYU, Independent, Overall Record 7-5 vs San Diego State, Mountain West Conference, Overall Record 9-3, Conference Mark 7-1 (Tri Champion with Boise State & Fresno State)

Bowl Location: San Diego, California. The San Diego County Credit Union Bowl is played at Qualcomm Stadium with a capacity of 71,500!  The 2010 game between San Diego State & Navy (SDSU won 35-14) boast’s the Bowl’s highest attendance, 48,049! This year’s game between BYU & San Diego State may challenge that attendance mark!

Day, Date, & Time: Thursday, 12/20/12, @ 7:00 p.m. 

Network: ESPN

Best Wins: BYU: Beat a 10-2 Utah State, 6-3 & Georgia Tech (who played in the ACC Championship Game) 41-17! San Diego State: Beat a 10-2 @ Boise State 21-19 and @ Nevada 39-38 in OT!

Worst Losses: BYU:  @ Utah (The Religious War) 24-21 … bragging rights in the State of Utah and Oregon State loss … not that they lost to OSU, a quality team … but rather the way they lost … giving up 42 points … they are way to good defensively for this to have happened San Diego State: @ Fresno State, 52-40, the lost kept them from winning MWC outright!

Common Opponents:  3 … San Jose State: BYU lost 20-14 while SDSU lost 38-34; Boise State: BYU lost 7-6 while SDSU beat Boise 21-19! Hawaii: BYU beat Hawaii 47-0 while San Diego State beat the Warriors, 52-14!

Las Vegas Hotsheet: BYU Opened @ BYU -2.5 and has remained there or at -3 on the various Vages Hotsheets! General perspective is that BYU has the better defense and played the stronger schedule!

Offensive Team Data: BYU: Total Yards, 409 YPG; Passing Yards, 248 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 162 YPG; Scoring Average 29 PPG, Turnovers, 1.83 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 45.1%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 80% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 65% 

Offensive Team Data: San Diego State: Total Yards, 408 YPG; Passing Yards, 179 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 229 YPG; Scoring Average 35 PPG, Turnovers, 1.67 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 49.4%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 90% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 75% 

Defensive Team Data: BYU:  Total Yards, 266 YPG; Passing Yards, 182 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 84 YPG; Scoring Average 15 PPG, Turnovers, 1.42 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 27.7%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 62% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 46%

Defensive Team Data: Total Yards, 376 YPG; Passing Yards, 235 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 141 YPG; Scoring Average 25 PPG, Turnovers, 1.92 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 42.9%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 80% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 70% 

Sully’s Game Simulator: is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take BYU’s total yards on offense, add it to what SDSU gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking San Diego State’s total offense, add it to what BYU gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards:  Advantage: BYU 393 to 337 

Passing Yards: Advantage: BYU 242 to 181

Rushing Yards: Advantage: SDSU 157 to 152

Scoring: Advantage: BYU 27 to 25 

Turnovers: Advantage: SDSU 1.54 to 1.88

3rd Down Conversions: Advantage: BYU 44% to 39% 

Red Zone All Scores: Advantage: BYU 80% to 76% 

Red Zone TD’s Only: Advantage: BYU 68% t0 61%

Individuals to Watch: SDSU Sophomore QB, Adam Dingwell cane off the bench in the Nevada game for injured Quarterback, Ryan Katz, and was instrumental is mounting a comeback that resulted in the 39-38 OT win! He then led the Aztec’s to victory in all four of his subsequence starts, including their, 21-19, win over Boise State! San Diego State RB, Adam Muema, has has a terrific season, rushing for 1,355 yards and 17 total TDs! BYU will counter on defense with LB Kyle Van Noy, who has 18.5 tackles for loss and 11.5 sacks! BYU has the 2nd ranked rush defense in the nation … is the clear result of individuals operating as a unit… playing their position first and then flowing to the ball!

Sully Says: These teams have not met the past two years, since BYU’s departure from the Mountain West Conference! The last four meetings, dating back to 2007 were all won by BYU, including the most recent in 2010, 24-21 ( BYU is 27-7-1 all time vs San Diego State)! Against common opponents this year, SDSU has the edge, going 2-1 vs Boise State (win), San Jose State (loss), & Hawaii (win), while BYU was 1-2 vs these same teams … beating only Hawaii! I did see BYU battle ND well into the 4th Quarter, hammer G-Tech and there really is no question that BYU has the better defense! Sully’s CFP Page says …. BYU will win and cover! 

Posted in 2012 / 2013 Bowl Game, Georgia Tech, Mountain West, Notre Dame, San Diego State |