Sully's Big Blog! Commentary on College Football, Weekly Games, And Strange Statistics!

Rose Bowl: Wisconsin (11-2) vs Oregon (11-2)

The Grand Daddy of them all…. the Rose Bowl… as American as Apple Pie Baby! Let’s use the site’s statistics and make a prediction!

Total Offense & Defense

Oregon averages 515 Yards Per Game (YPG) to the Badgers 467 YPG. On defense, the Badgers allow 293 YPG while the Ducks surrender an average of 381. Wisconsin cannot get in a quick strike game with Oregon. If the Ducks are able to get the game into an up-tempo affair… it clearly will favor them. However, if the Badgers are able to go on methodical marches and give the Ducks a heavy dose of that offensive line.. it could be a tough day for Oregon. One thing is for sure, given Oregon’s speed, Wisconsin does not want them within a score on the Ducks final possession. Advantage: Push

Rushing Offense & Defense

Oregon rushes the ball for 296 YPG to Wisconsin’s average of 230, on defense, the teams permit an average of 138 yards… identical to one another. In fact, Wisconsin has allowed a total 1794 rushing yards to Oregon’s 1795 yards…. over 13 games. How is that for close? No question, Oregon has a speed and quickness advantage (LaMichael James, Darron Thomas), while the Badgers have a power and strength advantage (O-Line & Montee Ball & James White). If the game is played in space… Oregon wins … if the game is played inside coupled with play action… Wisconsin wins. Advantage: Oregon

Passing Offense & Defense

Wisconsin passes the ball for an average 230 YPG to Oregon’s 220. Defensively, the Badgers give up 155 passing yards to the Ducks allowing 243 yards per game. For Wisconsin’s passing game to be effective … play action is required to allow the Badger receivers to create separation (Nick Toon). Oregon can create space with pure speed (De’Anthony Thomas). While the Badgers have better statistics, they simply do not have the speed on the outside that Oregon will feature. That said, for the first time in recent memory, the Badgers have an X factor at QB, Russell Wilson, who cannot only extend plays… he can escape. Advantage: Badgers 

Scoring Offense & Defense

Oregon averages 46 PPG while the Badgers are right behind @ 45. The Badgers give up 17 PPG to Oregon’s 24 per contest. One interesting factor here is that Oregon is 120th, that’s right…. dead last in time of possession, yet hold opponents to 24 points. While Wisconsin’s time of possession is tied for 20th best in FBS football. In Oregon’s losses to Ohio State (Rose Bowl), Auburn, & LSU, their time of possession was up (that’s right up). Those teams forced the Ducks into third down situations and subsequently made them to use more clock on offense. The Badger defense may be as much as a quarter second slower than OSU’s and a full half second slower than the two SEC defenses. A fact, I’m sure, not lost in Oregon’s preparation. Advantage: Oregon

Turnovers Give Aways & Take Aways

Oregon has turned it over 21 times (1.26 TPG) and taken it back 24 times (1.85 Take aways per game). The Badgers have have given the ball away 8 times (0.67) all season and taken it away from their opponents 24 times (1.85). A significant statistic, that clearly favors the Badgers. This turnover margin is something to watch… a short field can easily offset speed & quickness.  Advantage Badgers

Third Down Conversions Offense & Defense

The Badgers convert 54.1% of the time to the Ducks 45%, while on defense, Wisconsin stops its opposition 37.6 to a slight advantage for Oregon’s 37.3 on 3rd down stops. Advantage: Wisconsin

Red Zone Offense & Defense

Oregon scores 86% percent of the time when they enter the Red Zone and 76% of those scores are TD’s. While the Badgers are the second best Red Zone team in America (behind only Stanford) they score on 96% of their penetrations of which a staggering 87% are touchdowns. In defending the Red Zone, Oregon allows scores 81% of the time with 60% of the entries into the zone, resulting in TD’s. Wisconsin is scored on 82% of the time in the zone, of which, 57% are touchdowns. Advantage: Wisconsin

One other thought … Special Teams… can really be a factor given Oregon’s speed. The game may very well be decided by the execution of these teams and this is one place that Wisconsin must perform in space.

This is a typical Midwest / West Coast Battle, …. Power vs Quickness …. Strength vs Speed.

Wisconsin 38 Oregon 35 

Posted in Big Ten, Oregon, PAC 12, Wisconsin |

Taxslayer.Com Bowl: Ohio State7(6-6) vs Florida (6-6)

The Urban Bowl (Meyer was HC @ Florida & just accepted the OSU HC position) is how the game is being referred to across the country. These teams have not met since the 2006 BCS National Championship Game, a contest won easily by Florida, 41-14.

Florida has speed to burn @ running back, with Jeff Demps and Chris Rainey. These guys can flat out fly.. but are not overly effective when forced to play in the meat house. OSU is sure to try to keep these speed demons … in front of them… inside of them… and then punish them with “look out hits” in meat house. If they allow these two guys to play in space… OSU is in trouble… Hello and Goodbye …Over and Out… will be the theme! So who wins this battle will go a way to deciding who wins period.

Florida’s leading receivers are Rainey and Andre Debose, if they are going to move the ball on the ground, quarterback John Brantley will need to get the ball to these guys. OSU will try to be  physical with him and the running backs, Brantley will need to back them off with an effective passing game.

I think OSU’s Braxton Miller’s growth @ QB has been one of the positives in a season of negatives. Danny ‘Boom’ Herron is an excellent runner and DeVier Posey is one of the best receivers in the Big Ten. These two dopes missed most of the season because of tattoos… and other issues; but their back now and should be difference makers.

The arrival of Urban Meyer has had a huge impact on OSU’s players and fan base… hope and confidence abounds. Meyer’s presence is a difference maker…… OSU 28 Florida 17

Posted in Big Ten, Florida, Ohio State, SEC |

Outback Bowl: Michigan State vs Georgia

Some of my favorite players will be lining up against one another in the Spartan / Bulldog clash.

A cornerback for MSU, (#5) Johnny Rodgers , a player who never shuts up… he is forever letting offensive players (especially wide receivers) know about their shortcomings. Adams is clearly someone to watch and how the Georgia players will react to his chatter. Also, (#82) Keshawn Martin, a wide receiver for the Spartans and one of the quickest players in the Big Ten. This guy has the speed to play in the SEC, however, I suspect he would be just another fast guy in that league. Check out Martin’s speed vs SEC quickness… should be fun to watch.

For Georgia, their QB (#11) Aaron Murray, is one of the best duel threat (pass / run) quarterbacks in the country.  Although he struggled at times this year, Murray is someone who will have a lot to say about today’s winner.

Georgia has the 3rd ranked defense in the country and possesses the speed to confuse MSU QB, Kirk Cousins, who is prone to making ill advise throws @ ill advised times. To make matters worse for the Spartans, their running game (led by RB’s Edwin Baker & LeVeon Bell) has not faced a defense with Georgia’s speed. This may well put the outcome in the hands of Cousins’,  his decision making, and Martin and BJ Cunningham’s ability to get separation from the Bulldog secondary. Not an easy task for the wide outs and Cousins tendency to force things….. do not bode well for the Spartans.

Georgia 35 Michigan State 17

Posted in Big Ten, Georgia, Michigan State, SEC |

Capital One Bowl: South Carolina (10-2) vs Nebraska (9-3)

Nebraska takes the field today for the first time carrying the Big Ten’s colors and hopes against the vaunted SEC hordes. Three Big Ten / SEC games today, (Florida vs Ohio State … Urban Bowl, Michigan State vs Georgia & this one… South Carolina vs Nebraska) the Big Ten is trying to get back some self respect after last year’s disaster.

South Carolina will be without All American, running back, Marcus Lattimore (knee), and the QB who started the season for them, Stephen Garcia (dismissed from team). The former, Lattimore, is not replaceable, as he is arguably the best running back in the country, while Connor Shaw has brought a level of consistency that was not present with Garcia.

Nebraska is without its All American defensive tackle, Jared Crick, who like Lattimore is not someone you can replace.

South Carolina has faced Nebraska three times in its history and has lost all 3 games. Yet this years version of the Gamecocks is the stronger team defensively, both against the run and pass. Nebraska, not a threat to throw the ball, may inadvertently help an  already   formidable South Carolina run defense.

The teams are scoring at about the same average, Huskers 31 and Gamecocks at 30, while USC is surrendering 19 points to Nebraska allowing 23.

A win by South Carolina will make history for their program, the first team in USC annuals to win 11 games. While Nebraska is looking to restore Big Ten honor and erase the memory of last year’s bowl disappoint against Washington.

Upset alert: Nebraska 28 South Carolina 25 

 

Posted in Big Ten, Nebraska, SEC, South Carolina |

Penn State vs Houston

Penn State has not faced anything like the passing attack that Case Keenum and the Houston Cougars are bring to today’s TicketCity Bowl. The 444 yards (1st in the NCAA) of passing offense that PSU must defend is a long way from the best that the Nittany Lions were asked to stop during the regular season… Northwestern’s 244!

As far as Penn State’s passing attack goes … there seem to be some confusion about who connects with whom? Given the the fact that wide receiver, Curtis Drake, connected with his QB’s (Matt McGloin) jaw. Normally, the QB is the one who does the connecting with his receiver…. via a pass down field and not the other way around in a locked room fight. McGloin is out of the TicketCity Bowl for medical reasons and Drake will not be at the bowl… for what was described by Coach Bradley as “personal reasons”.

So the starting quarterback for the Lions fell to Rob Bolden. Bolden decided that this spotlight was not bright enough, so he determined what was needed was for him to shoplift a bottle of Gatorade from a local State College store last week. Good idea Rob! What a mess!

For all the problems @ PSU this year, the least of which was their offensive limits, their defense, through it all, continued to play well. They are giving up 162 passing Yards Per Game, 4th best in the nation. This is far and away the best pass defense that Keenum has faced this season.

Both teams are coming off disappointing losses. Houston lost the Conference USA Championship Game to Southern Mississippi, 49-28, while Penn State’s loss to Wisconsin, 45-7, a defeat which kept them out of the Big Ten’s Championship Game.

This is a tough call… so many side bars… Penn State unending off the field issues… Case Keenum’s last hurrah, and the irresistible force (Houston’s O) vs the immovable object (Lions D). All that said.. Houston 31 Penn State 24

Posted in Big Ten, C-USA, Houston, Penn State |

SEC vs Big Ten in Bowl Games

This will come as a shock to those of you who think the Big Ten plays wearing combat boots and simply does not have the quickness to compete with the SEC’s suddenness; the shock is… the Big Ten leads the SEC…. 91-86-6 in head to head bowl clashes. I have to admit…I was a little more than just surprised by that stat.

Since 1990, the SEC leads these mono a mono (hand to hand combat… not man to man you dopes) confrontations… but not by as much as you might think! In the 54 games played in the past 20 years… the SEC has won 29 to the Big Ten’s 25…. not the dominance that that the talking heads @ ESPN or the SEC folks like to imply or outright claim.

Two factors that I think have led to the perception that the Big Ten is inferior by a wide margin are: 1) The Big Ten’s performance in high profile games (BCS Bowls… in particular, Ohio State vs Florida 41-14  & LSU 38-24… beat downs in back to back BCS National Championship Games) and 2) the recent history… which hit (hard) rock bottom last year (Alabama 49 Michigan State 7, Mississippi State 52 Michigan 14, and Florida 37 Penn State 24). Ohio State did beat Arkansas last year, 31-26, but we later discovered, their compliance officers, Al Capone & Frank Nitti, had not been as forthcoming as the NCAA would have liked regarding some of their queries. As a result, OSU vacated that win… so last year… officially… (if not on the field) here are/were the results…..SEC 3 wins, Big Ten Black & Blue, & OSU officials claiming they do not know the whereabouts of Al or Frank!

Posted in Alabama, Arkansas, Big Ten, LSU, Michigan, Michigan State, Mississippi State, Ohio State, SEC |

Insight Bowl Iowa (7-5) vs Oklahoma (9-3)

The Legends Division of the Big Ten has a tough task in front of them as they begin their bowl season tonight, with the Hawkeyes of Iowa taking on the Oklahoma Sooners. Take a peek at these teams on the site and you will find Oklahoma outperforming Iowa in every offensive category (Total Yards, Passing Yards, Rushing Yards, Scoring Average, Third Down Conversions, & Red Zone Offense) except for one … Offensive Turnovers.  The Sooners have turned the ball over 28 times this season (2.33 Turnovers Per Game) to Iowa’s 18 (1.5 TPG). The team that wins the turnover battle, statistically, gives itself the best chance to win the game. Clearly, if the Hawks are going to stay in this game …. they need takeaways to offset Oklahoma’s advantage in every other offensive area.

On defense, the statistical analysis finds the teams much closer, although Oklahoma does a better job of stopping its opponent on 3rd down.

The simple truth here is the Sooners are the better team and the Hawks are going to play their best game of the year… just to be around in the 4th quarter. Bobby Stoops homecoming (played (1979-82,a defensive back) and coached (1983-88) @ Iowa) should be an enjoyable one… Oklahoma 45 Iowa 24

Posted in Big 12, Big Ten, Iowa, Oklahoma |

Sports Champ Bowl: Florida State vs Notre Dame

Notre Dame and Florida State’s  return to glory in 2011 was not to be… the good news for their fan base was that they were not led on with false hope or a fragile win. ND was short circuited by lightning and Skippy Holtz’s South Florida in its first outing and then by Michigan… where the Irish (not Fighting…just plain old, same old, Irish) could not defend an 80 yard field for 30 seconds! The Seminoles, not be outdone by this annual Irish collapse, determined the best way to equal or surpass, the not so Fighting Irish’s ignoring of the sound asleep echoes, was to lose 3 in a row. Mission accomplished!

I’m not sure what the Irish manager/trainer packs in the old medicine kit, but I would recommend several ice packs for Kelly’s head. One wonders what kind of teaching goes on during the week, as it is crystal clear, based on Kelly’s reactions to perceived transgressions on the field, that the players did not get Sunday through Friday’s message. That leaves the sideline on Game Day to re-teach (probably to late … but what other options are available to a coach), given that challenge, Kelly’s rage all but eliminates (actually annihilates)  that possibility. You simply cannot teach when you are that angry/frustrated.

Meanwhile, old Jimbo looks confused (not Jumbo as I often call him… maybe I’m confused). His team is way to young for that kind of pressure…. via the expectations…. that were piled on their front doorstep this season. Not this year Jumbo … oops… Jimbo… not sure how successful you can be with that name in the athletic ACC. Jumbo seems more like a frost giant, while Jimbo reminds me of some kind of dancing scarecrow. Makes me think of Lovie Smith & the Bears… used to be Iron Mike – now it’s Lovie… and to make matters worse … he is coaching in the Black & Blue Division. Seems incongruous, yet he did lead his team to a Super Bowl! So looks like I am confused, just like the expectations that Florida State had to deal with this year… confusing!

ND has to play this game minus Jonas Gray (knee)…a huge loss to the Irish running game! This means the game may turn on Tommy Rees’ ability to throw, extend, and escape against a formidable FSU front seven and solid defense backs, led by Greg Reid.  The key to this game for the Irish may well be the number of snaps given to Andrew Hendrix and, of course, the number of ice packs available for Kelly’s head.

Posted in ACC, Florida State, Notre Dame |

Military Bowl Air Force (7-5) vs Toledo (8-4)

Winston Churchill may have been talking about the Air Forces’ offense and not the Soviet Union when he said ” it is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma.”

How can the offense of the next generation of airman have then scurrying about the land like ground hogs and not have them souring through the air like killer hawks? Doesn’t their fight song say “that a boy give em the gun” what are they doing lining up in a facsimile of the bone? Worse yet, there is a clear connection to a “wish’ bone! Since when do American warriors wish?  Does it not make more sense for American Airmen to be aligned with shotguns than with wishbones?

There is no question that the American economy is struggling because its Air Force has been grounded! I ask you… can we spend money we do not have …no we cannot; can a Falcon outrun a cheetah…. no it cannot. For our economy to recover, we need those dopes in Washington to say no once and a while and we need the Falcons to line up in the gun and take to the air.

Check out the site under Team to compare these squads… Enjoy the game…

Posted in Air Force, MAC, Mountain West, Toledo |

Bridgeport Education Holiday Bowl: California (7-5) vs Texas (7-5)

You all know the “hook em horns” hand sign stuff the Texas’ fans are forever doing, well of late, it has become somewhat confusing. I am assuming that by the raising of their pinky and index fingers, they are warning us of impending danger or signing trash about the mauling their team is about to inflicted on someone. We need to politely let them know that they are 12-12 the past two years and need to keep all extremities under those 10 gallon hats.

If their intent with the hook em stuff is to warn us…thanks…  however…your 12-12 and so…. no need. If your intention is to sign smack…. your delusional…. your 12-12… so… mime up. Like Marquette’s great basketball coach Al McGuire use to say… better it they don’t see you coming.

Southern Methodists fans have long supported the idea that the ‘hook en horns’ hand configuration is really an attempt by a cross eyed cowboy to order one beer! If this is a correct interpretation of the gesture and given the fact that Texas has been 12-12 these past two years, Longhorn fans should put up both hands and order two!

Check the site and compare these two teams… this should be a fun game to watch!

Posted in Big 12, California, PAC 12, Texas |