Rose Bowl: Wisconsin (11-2) vs Oregon (11-2)

The Grand Daddy of them all…. the Rose Bowl… as American as Apple Pie Baby! Let’s use the site’s statistics and make a prediction!

Total Offense & Defense

Oregon averages 515 Yards Per Game (YPG) to the Badgers 467 YPG. On defense, the Badgers allow 293 YPG while the Ducks surrender an average of 381. Wisconsin cannot get in a quick strike game with Oregon. If the Ducks are able to get the game into an up-tempo affair… it clearly will favor them. However, if the Badgers are able to go on methodical marches and give the Ducks a heavy dose of that offensive line.. it could be a tough day for Oregon. One thing is for sure, given Oregon’s speed, Wisconsin does not want them within a score on the Ducks final possession. Advantage: Push

Rushing Offense & Defense

Oregon rushes the ball for 296 YPG to Wisconsin’s average of 230, on defense, the teams permit an average of 138 yards… identical to one another. In fact, Wisconsin has allowed a total 1794 rushing yards to Oregon’s 1795 yards…. over 13 games. How is that for close? No question, Oregon has a speed and quickness advantage (LaMichael James, Darron Thomas), while the Badgers have a power and strength advantage (O-Line & Montee Ball & James White). If the game is played in space… Oregon wins … if the game is played inside coupled with play action… Wisconsin wins. Advantage: Oregon

Passing Offense & Defense

Wisconsin passes the ball for an average 230 YPG to Oregon’s 220. Defensively, the Badgers give up 155 passing yards to the Ducks allowing 243 yards per game. For Wisconsin’s passing game to be effective … play action is required to allow the Badger receivers to create separation (Nick Toon). Oregon can create space with pure speed (De’Anthony Thomas). While the Badgers have better statistics, they simply do not have the speed on the outside that Oregon will feature. That said, for the first time in recent memory, the Badgers have an X factor at QB, Russell Wilson, who cannot only extend plays… he can escape. Advantage: Badgers 

Scoring Offense & Defense

Oregon averages 46 PPG while the Badgers are right behind @ 45. The Badgers give up 17 PPG to Oregon’s 24 per contest. One interesting factor here is that Oregon is 120th, that’s right…. dead last in time of possession, yet hold opponents to 24 points. While Wisconsin’s time of possession is tied for 20th best in FBS football. In Oregon’s losses to Ohio State (Rose Bowl), Auburn, & LSU, their time of possession was up (that’s right up). Those teams forced the Ducks into third down situations and subsequently made them to use more clock on offense. The Badger defense may be as much as a quarter second slower than OSU’s and a full half second slower than the two SEC defenses. A fact, I’m sure, not lost in Oregon’s preparation. Advantage: Oregon

Turnovers Give Aways & Take Aways

Oregon has turned it over 21 times (1.26 TPG) and taken it back 24 times (1.85 Take aways per game). The Badgers have have given the ball away 8 times (0.67) all season and taken it away from their opponents 24 times (1.85). A significant statistic, that clearly favors the Badgers. This turnover margin is something to watch… a short field can easily offset speed & quickness.  Advantage Badgers

Third Down Conversions Offense & Defense

The Badgers convert 54.1% of the time to the Ducks 45%, while on defense, Wisconsin stops its opposition 37.6 to a slight advantage for Oregon’s 37.3 on 3rd down stops. Advantage: Wisconsin

Red Zone Offense & Defense

Oregon scores 86% percent of the time when they enter the Red Zone and 76% of those scores are TD’s. While the Badgers are the second best Red Zone team in America (behind only Stanford) they score on 96% of their penetrations of which a staggering 87% are touchdowns. In defending the Red Zone, Oregon allows scores 81% of the time with 60% of the entries into the zone, resulting in TD’s. Wisconsin is scored on 82% of the time in the zone, of which, 57% are touchdowns. Advantage: Wisconsin

One other thought … Special Teams… can really be a factor given Oregon’s speed. The game may very well be decided by the execution of these teams and this is one place that Wisconsin must perform in space.

This is a typical Midwest / West Coast Battle, …. Power vs Quickness …. Strength vs Speed.

Wisconsin 38 Oregon 35