Sully's Big Blog! Commentary on College Football, Weekly Games, And Strange Statistics!

Jay Fuller Interviews / Pat Sullivan on Leadership, Attitude, & Team Building!

I would encourage you to take a few minutes and and listen to these guys. What they talk about is both educational and entertaining!

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UVzwSY6Yojs#dialog [3]

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The 5 most Interesting/Best Games in Week Seven!

5. A Wednesday Night Game; 10/14 (rescheduled from last week) Coastal Carolina 3-0 @ Louisiana 3-0; TV: 6:30 / ESPN; Line: Louisiana -7! An early season, Sun Belt Conference (SBC), showdown of unbeaten teams! These teams have only played twice, The Chanticleers (Coastal Carolina’s Spirit name) won the 1st meeting in 2018, 30-28, while the Ragin Cajuns won last year’s game, 48-7! That said, both teams have beaten B-12 teams this year, Louisiana beat up Iowa State, 31-13, while CCU whipped Kansas, 38-23! It should also be noted, that CCU beat Arkansas State, who knocked off Kansas State (35-31), The Chanticleers then pounded Arkansas State, 52-23. These teams can play! Check em’ out!

4. A Friday Night Game 10/16 BYU 4-0 @ Houston 1-0; TV: 8:30 / ESPN; Line: BYU -4.5! Another battle of unbeaten teams. These Cougars (both BYU & Houston are the Cougars) have stalked one another only twice in their long football histories, in 2013, BYU beat Houston, 47-46 and again in 2014, BYU won, 33-25! Houston has lost five games to Covid-19 in 2020, in fact, every game they had scheduled in September was canceled or postponed! Their lone win came on Oct. 8th vs Tulane, 49-31. BYU pounded their 1st three (3) opponents, Navy, 55-3, Troy, 48-7, Louisiana Tech, 45-14, and finally, last week, they had a competitive contest, beating Texas San Antonio, 27-20! Houston plays in the American Athletic Conference (AAC), BYU is an Independent!

Saturday’s Games of interest

3 Boston College 3-1 @ Virginia Tech 2-1; TV: 7:00 / ACC; Line: VT -11.5! BC is 10-18 in this series and ended a 3 game losing streak the last time they were in Blacksburg, 31-21, in 2018! VT is 8-5 since 2008! The Hookies have been decimated by Covid-19 and in fact, beat Duke, 38-31 & NC State, 45-23, without 21 players, who were out with Covid! VT was consider a favorite to win the Coastal Division, along with North Carolina & Miami. They are finally healthy and we should get a better look at them this week.

The Hokies lost last week to North Carolina, 56-45, but came all the way back from a 42-17 deficit to 42-37 score in the 4th quarter, before falling.

BC has played lights out under their new coach, Jeff Hafley (former OC at Ohio State) losing to only North Carolina, 26-22! This is a must win for both teams, if they hope to stay in the ACC race!

2 Ole Miss 1-2 @ Arkansas 1-2; TV: 2:30 / ESPN 2; Line: Ole Miss -3.5! Both these teams are playing at a high level for their new coaches. Sam Pittman, the new Razorback’s coach, has Arkansas playing well in the early part of 2020. They went toe to toe with UGA in the 1st half of their game, before getting out-talented in the 2nd half, losing, 37-10!

Then in week two, they shocked Mississippi State, 21-14, who had just beat the defending national Champs, LSU, 44-34! Last week, the Hogs, were victims of a misinterpretation of a rule, and as a result, lost to Auburn, 30-28. A game all agree, the Hogs should have won, 28-27!

Meanwhile, Ole Miss put up 48 points and over 600 yards vs Bama vaunted defense last week. The Rebels have lost twice in 2020, once to Florida, 51-35! and Alabama, 63-48! Many in the SEC think these 2 teams, along with Georgia, are the class of the conference.

1 Georgia 3-0 @ Alabama 3-0; TV: 7:00 / ABC, Line: Bama -6! The day’s best game may be the year’s best game! We have the most complete offense in the country in Alabama and the nations best defense, Georgia, both on the field together, come Saturday night! Georgia won the last time they were in Tuscaloosa, in OT, 26-23, in 2007! These teams are use to playing in the spotlight, the last 2 meetings were played for championships. In 2017, Bama beat UGA, for the National Championship, 26-23, in OT, (Deja vu anyone, look at the 2007 score) and in 2018, these teams played for the SEC Championship, the Tide rolled again, 35-28! Saban has now faced off with his former assistants 21 times and is 21-0 in these games! What a great way to end a college football week end!

Enjoy the Games!

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Sully’s Four Pack of Winners / Week 7!

All Lines are from the Vegas Hot$heets & are opening bets. The numbers will change as they follow the money, SCFP does not, we pick against the opening line! The boys & girls in Vegas want their 10% and will adjust the line to that end!

4. Auburn 2-1 (SEC / West Division) @ South Carolina 1-2 (SEC / East Division); TV: 11:00 / ESPN, Favorite: Auburn -2! Sully’s Says; take Auburn and give the Gamecocks the 2 points!

3. Ole Miss 1-2 (SEC / West Division) @ Arkansas 1-2 (SEC / West Division) TV: 2:30 / ESPN 2; Favorite: Ole Miss -3.5! Sully Says; take the Rebels & give Arkansas the 3.5!

2. Boston College 3-1 (ACC / No Divisions this Year) @ Virginia Tech 2-1 (ACC); TV: 7:00 / ACCN; Favorite: VT -11.5! Sully Says: take BC and the 11 1/2 points!

1 Georgia 3-0 (SEC / East Division) @ Alabama 3-0 (SEC / West Division) TV: 7:00 / ABC; Favorite: Bama -6! Sully Says: Take the Tide and give the Dawgs the 6 points!

Sully’s College Football Page (SCFP) is currently 5-6 (45%) against the spread! We went 0-3 the 1st week and 5 and 3 (62.5%) the last two Saturdays!

At this point, I would encourage you not to bet the rent on our picks!!

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This Week’s Games, Wednesday, 10/14 through Saturday,10/17!

Wednesday’s Game

Coastal Carolina 3-0 @ Louisiana 3-0; TV: 6:30 / ESPN, Line: Louisianan -7

Thursday’s Game

Georgia State 1-1 @ Arkansas State 2-2; TV: 6:30 / ESPN; Line: Arkansas State -5

Friday’s Games

SMU 4-0 @ Tulane 2-2; TV: 5:00 / ESPN; Line: SMU -6.5

BYU 4-0 @ Houston 1-0; TV: 8:30 / ESPN; Line: BYU -4.5

Saturday’s Games

SEC

Auburn 2-1 @ South Carolina 1-2; TV: 11:00 / ESPN; Line: Auburn -2

Kentucky 1-2 @ Tennessee 2-1; TV: 11:00 / SECN; Line: UT -6.5

LSU 1-2 @ Florida 2-1; TV: 2:30 / ESPN; Line: Florida -12

Ole Miss 1-2 @ Arkansas 1-2; TV: 2:30 / ESPN 2; Line: Ole Miss -3.5

Texas A&M 2-1: @ Mississippi State 1-2; TV: 3:00 / SECN; Line: Texas A&M -5.5

Georgia 3-0 @ Alabama 3-0: TV: 7:00 / ABC; Line: Bama -6

Vanderbilt 0-3 @ Missouri 1-2; Postponed 

ACC

Clemson 3-0 @ Georgia Tech; TV: 11:00 / ABC; Line: Clemson -27

Pitt 3-2 @ Miami 3-1; TV: 11:00 / ACCN; Line: Miami -11

Liberty 4-0 Syracuse 1-2; TV: 11:00 / ESPN 3; Line: Liberty -2.5

Louisville 1-3 @ Notre Dame 3-0; TV: 1:30 / NBC; Line: ND -14.5

Duke 1-4 @ NC State 3-1; TV: 2:30 / ESPN 3; Line: NC State -4.5

Virginia 1-2 @ Wake Forest 1-2; TV: 3:00 / ACCN; Line: UVA -2

North Carolina 3-0 @ Florida State 1-3; TV: 6:00 / ESPN; Line: UNC -8

Boston College 3-1 @ Virginia Tech 2-1; TV: 7:00 / ACCN; Line: VT-11.5

B-12

Kansas 0-3 @ West Virginia 2-1; TV: 11:00 / FOX; Line: WV -23

Oklahoma State 3-0 @ Baylor 1-1; Postponed

AAC

Cincinnati 3-0 @ Tulsa 1-1; TV: 11:00 / ESPN 2; Line: Cincy -4

Navy 2-2 @ East Carolina 1-2; TV: 11:00 / ESPN+; Line: Navy -2.5

South Florida 1-3 @ Temple 0-1; TV: 11:00 / ESPN+; Line: Temple -10

Central Florida 2-1 @ Memphis 1-1; TV: 2:30 / ABC; Line: UCF -3

C-USA

Army 4-1 @ Texas San Antonio 3-2; TV: 12:30 / CBSSN; Line: Army -7

Western Kentucky 1-3 @ UAB 3-1; TV: 12:30 / Local Network; Line: UAB -13

North Texas 1-3 @ Middle Tennessee 1-4; TV: 4:00 / CBSSN; Line: MTS -7

Marshall 3-0 @ Louisiana Tech 3-1; TV: 5:00 / CBSSN; Line: Marshall -13

Southern Miss 1-3 @ UTEP 3-2; TV: 6:30 / ESPN 2; Line: Southern Miss -4

Florida International 0-2 @ UNC Charlotte 1-2; TV: 7:00 / ESPNU; Line: UNCC -6,5

Sun Belt Conference (SBC)

Texas State 1-4 @ South Alabama 1-3; TV: 11:00 / ESPNU; Line: USA -2.5

U-Mass 0-0 @ Georgia Southern 2-1; TV: 3:00 / ESPNU; Line: Georgia Southern -28

Eastern Kentucky 1-3 @ Troy 2-1; TV: 6:00 / ESPN 3; Line: Troy -27.5

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Sully’s 4 Pack of Winners!

Miami 3-0 @ Clemson 3-0: Line opened with Clemson -15.5 & is now @ 14! @ 15.5 stay away from this game, but at 14, Sully’s says: take Clemson and give the U the 14!

Alabama 2-0 -24 @ Ole Miss 1-1: The Lane Train scores enough to win with 24 points: Sully Says: take Ole Miss at home & the 24!

Texas 2-1 vs Oklahoma 1-2 -2.5: The Horns’ win this game out right, OU loses 3 in a row! Sully Says: take the Longhorns and the 2.5!

Florida 2-0 -5 @ Texas A&M: A huge game for the Gators to keep pace with Georgia, who beat Auburn @ home last week! Sully Says: take Florida and give A&M the 5 points!

Heading into this week we are a dismal, 5-6. However, we started the season with an 0-3 outing. Since that start we have gone 5-3 or a 63% winning percentage vs the boys/girls from Vegas! Looking forward to moving over 500 against the spread this week!

http://sullyscollegefootballpage.com/

Enjoy the Games!

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Five Best Games of Week 6

You know these are different times, Covid-19 aside, when you are trying to determine the week’s 5 best games and you don’t use Oklahoma vs Texas or Florida State @ Notre Dame!

OU is 1-2, having lost in consecutive weeks ( Kansas State 38-35 & Iowa State, 37-30) for the 1st time since 1999. That was Stoops 1st year, he lost back to back games to ND & Texas. The Sooners then began a 40 game streak of winning the next game after a loss. This was the longest streak of its kind in the nation, followed by none other than, Alabama, who have not lost consecutive games since 2007!

Meanwhile, Texas is 2-1, losing to TCU, 33-31, last week. This should have been their 2nd loss in as many weeks. The Longhorns’ were down to Texas Tech, 56-41, in the 4th with less then 4 minutes to play. Enter Texas QB, Sam Ehlinger, who quickly changed in a phone booth, put on a cape, and saved what may be left of the ‘Horns’ CFP chances. He hit two TD passes and then converted a 2 point conversion to force OT. Oops, did I mention the Horns’ also recovered an onside kick! UT then scored first and then forced a Red Raider turnover to win in overtime 63-56! Somebody in Texas is living right!

Florida State is 1-2, losing to Georgia Tech, 16-13 and getting slobbered-knocked by Miami, 52-10. The Noles only win this season is against an FCS program, Jacksonville State, 41-24. Notre Dame is 2-0, the Irish opened & struggled with Duke (0-4) in the 1st half, before winning 27-13. They then pounded South Florida, 52-0. USF is 1-2, with their only win coming vs The Citadel, 27-6! ND’s opponents are 1-6 in 2020, so we really don’t know how good the Irish are in 2020!

That said, here are the 5 best games of week 6 according to Sully’s College Football Page!

5. Coastal Carolina 3-0 vs Louisiana 3-0: Before you try to have me committed, check this out! Louisiana, the Ragin Cajuns, beat Iowa State, 31-13 and as you know, ISU beat Oklahoma, 38-31! CCU, the Chanticleers, beat Kansas, 38-23, ok I get it, Kansas, after-all, is Kansas. However, the Chanticleers also beat Arkansas State badly, 52-23, ok, you’re thinking, still not the 5th best game. Alright, now factor this in, Arkansas State beat Kansas State, 35-31 and again, as you are aware, KSU beat OU, 38-35!

This is the 5th best game, 2 unbeaten group of 5 teams, from the Sun Belt Conference. Both of these teams have taken on the Big Boys and are still standing! Check out what the SCFP Game Simulator (head to Head) says: http://sullyscollegefootballpage.com/Football_Stats/Matchup.cfm

When you get to the Game Simulator page, you will see Wisconsin vs Iowa, simply click on the drop box and it will up a menu of over 400 teams. In this case, go to Louisiana on one side & Coastal Carolina on the other and the site will give a side by side comparison of the teams and will pick a statistical winner! Check it out!

Breaking News: this game has been moved Wednesday, do to Hurricane Delta!

The game is at 11:00/ESPN, Vegas Hot$heets say the pick is Louisiana -7!

4. Virginia Tech 2-0 ! North Carolina 2-0: This year the ACC is playing without divisions (Coastal & Atlantic are not factors) In other words, 2 teams from the Atlantic Division, say Clemson and NC State, could play for the ACC Championship, where in a typical year, this would not be possible; as the winner of each division gets an automatic berth into the championship game! Even if the 2nd place team in the Atlantic Division had a better record and even beat the Coastal Division champ!

While most think Clemson is a foregone conclusion to make the Championship and they are … on paper … but that’s why we play the games. UNC does not play Clemson in the regular season ( a big advantage) and has ND @ Home (another advantage), on 11/27 & then UNC travels to Miami the following week, 12/5. UNC really win needs this game @ home!

For VT, a road win vs the Tar Heels would loom large, as VT plays Miami 11/14, & Clemson 12/5 at home. The Hookies travel to Pitt on Nov 21 & do not play Notre Dame!

VT has beaten UNC 8 of the last 11.

This is an 11:00 o’clock kick-off on ABC, Hotsheets like UNC -6. The link below will tell you what the Game Simulator calculates on Sully’s College Football Page (SCFP). Follow the directions given above substituting North Carolina & Virginia Tech for the UW & Iowa!

http://sullyscollegefootballpage.com/Football_Stats/Matchup.cfm

3. Florida 2-0 @ Texas A&M 1-1: Florida needs to win this game, on the road, vs Texas A&M, to keep pace with Georgia, who has already beat Auburn, 24-6, in Athens! The Gators have LSU at home, while the Dawgs have to travel to Tuscaloosa to take on the Tide!

Both UGA and UF play Arkansas. Florida played Ole Miss, a 51-35 win while Georgia plays Mississippi State (11/21). The cross divisional games can determine who wins the other division.

That said, head to head remains the critical determinate. UGA & UF play at a neutral site, Jacksonville, FL on 10/31!

Texas A&M was set to challenge for the West Division in 2020, yet struggled with Vanderbilt, in their opener, winning 17-12 and then were busted up by Alabama, 52-24!

Time to put up or shut up! The Aggies need this game in the worst way, a 2nd loss, coupled with Bama having the tie breaker (winning the head to head meeting), would mean Alabama would have to lose three games for A&M to win the division! Desperation time for the Aggies come Saturday!

The Gators & Aggies have only met twice since A&M joined the SEC (2012), Florida won the 1st meeting, in 2012, 20-17 & Texas A&M won the the 2nd, 19-17, in 2017!

VegasHot$heets have established Florida -5 as the betting line!

See what the site says about the game. http://sullyscollegefootballpage.com/Football_Stats/Matchup.cfm

2. Tennessee 2-0 @ Georgia 2-0: For the day’s 2nd best game, we stay in the SEC! An East Division showdown between the upstart Tennessee Volunteers and the division’s top gun, the Georgia Bulldogs!

UGA has won 8 of the last 11 vs Tennessee, including three in a row, 48-0 in 2017, 38-12 in 2018, & 43-14 in 2019.

Coming into Saturday’s game the Volunteers have beaten, South Carolina, 31-25 & Missouri, 35-12. UGA has stopped Arkansas, 37-12 & Auburn, 24-6.

Vegas has set the line with Georgia -14

Sully’s College Football Page Game Simulator says: http://sullyscollegefootballpage.com/Football_Stats/Matchup.cfm

1 Miami 3-0 @ Clemson 3-0: This is the day’s best game! Most people who study college football believe the ACC championship will be a battle between Clemson’s talent & Clemson’s focus. In other words, if Clemson stays focused, Clemson wins the ACC is the prevailing thought. Yet, this is not the dominant thought of the folks residing in Coral Gables, Florida!

Well Canes, here is your chance! A prime time college football Saturday evening, 6:30 on CBS, with essentially the entire football world having access to the game. Your coming out party is being played in the new college football, Cradle of Civilization, Clemson, SC (forget Mesopotamia, they think football is soccer) a perfect setting to change ACC history, at least recent history!

The Tigers & Canes have played 4 times since 2009! Clemson won in 2009, 40-37, the Hurricanes got it done in 2010, 30-21, in 2015, Clemson blasted the U, 58-0, and bounced Miami again, in 2017, 38-3!

Clemson awaits the coming of the Hurricane(s) in Death Valley. The Tigers have pushed aside Wake Forest, 37-13, The Citadel, 49-0, & Virginia, 41-23. While the Hurricanes were marking a path of destruction through Alabama (UAB, 31-14) moving north to Kentucky (Louisville, 47-34), doubling back south to Florida (FSU, 52-10) and now turning north toward South Carolina, taking dead aim at Death Valley!

Vegas Hot$heets have set the line at Clemson -15.5

While Sully’s Game Simulator says: http://sullyscollegefootballpage.com/Football_Stats/Matchup.cfm

Enjoy the Games!

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Saturday’s Games: Week 6!

Florida 2-0 @ Texas A&M 1-1: These teams have played twice since 2009, The Gators and Aggies have split, FL won in 2012 ( the year T-A&M joined the SEC), 20-17 while A&M won in 2017, 19-17! TV: 11:00 / ESPN; Favorite: Florida -5

Virginia Tech 2-0 @ North Carolina 2-0: The Hookies & Tar Heals are in the ACC’s Coastal Division and have met 11 times since 2009! V-Tech has won 8 of 11, including the last four! That said, the last 2 games have been close, VT won 22-19 in 2018 & 43-41 in 2019! TV: 11:00 / ABC; Favorite: UNC -6!

Texas 2-1 vs Oklahoma 1-2: This is the annual B-12 championship game (@ least that is the perception of this meeting). The Longhorns lead the series, 62-47-5, yet since the end of WWII, (widely considered the beginning of modern era) OU leads, 37-36-3 and, in fact, have won 14 of the last 21. TV: 11:00 / FOX; Favorite: OU -2.5

Coastal Carolina 3-0 @ Louisiana 3-0: An early season Sun Belt showdown, both teams have won shockers vs the B-12, the Ragin Cajuns took down Iowa State, 31-14 & the Chanticleers whipped Kansas, 38-21. The teams have split 2 games as SBC members, CCU won 30-28 in 2018 & UL won in 19′ 48-7! TV: 11:00 / ESPN; Favorite: Louisiana -7!

UL Monroe 0-4 @ Liberty 3-0: 1st meeting. ULM is a member of the SBC and Liberty in an Independent! TV: 11:00 / ESPNU; Favorite: Liberty -21

NC State 2-1 @ Virginia 1-1: Across-divisional battle of the ACC’s Atlantic & Coastal Divisions. The Wolfpack & Cavaliers have met 3 times since 2009, State has won 2 of 3, 2011, 28-14 & in 2018, 35-21, while UVA won in 2012, 33-6. TV: 11:00 / ACCN; Favorite: UVA -10

South Carolina 0-2 @ Vanderbilt 0-2: The Gamecocks & Commodores have played 11 times since 2009 and USC has won all 11 by an average of 11.1 PPG. Will Muschamp’s coaching position @ South Carolina is in jeopardy, he needs to right this ship, beginning Saturday! TV: 11:00 / SECN; Favorite: SC-12

Duke 0-4 @ Syracuse 1-2: This is Duke’s worst start to a season in the David Cutcliffe Era. The Teams have only played twice as ACC opponents, Duke won in 2014, 27-10 while the Orange blasted the Blue Devils in 2019, 49-6. TV: 11:30 / ESPN 3; Favorite: Opened as a Pick ’em Game

The Citadel 0-3 @ Army 3-1: The Cadets take on another military school, an FCS program, located in Charleston, SC. Look for a quick game time-wise, as the Bulldogs also run the option! TV: 12:30 / CBSSN; Favorite: Army -29.5

Tennessee 2-0 @ Georgia 2-0: The Volunteers are fully committed to spoiling the prevailing thought that ‘”The world’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party”, (well maybe not this year), UGA vs Florida in Jacksonville, FL, will determine the SEC East Champion. The Vols & Dawgs have meet 11 times since 2009, with the Bulldogs winning 8 of 11. TV: 2:30 / CBS; Favorite: UGA -14!

UTSA (Texas San Antonio) 3-1 @ BYU 3-0: This is the 1st meeting of these Universities on the gridiron! TV: 2:30 ESPN 2; Favorite: BYU -33

Texas Tech 1-2 @ Iowa State 2-1: The teams have ‘kicked it off’ 11 times since 2009, the Cyclones own a slight advantage, 6 wins to the Red Raiders 5 wins. TV: 2:30 / ABC; Favorite: ISU -12.5

Central Arkansas 2-2 @ Arkansas State 1-2: Central Arkansas is an FCS Program that plays in the Southland Conference (SLC) while Arkansas State is an FBS team out of the Sun Belt Conference (SBC). These teams have split 2 games, ASU won in 2011, 53-24, but were upset by CA in 2016, 28-23. The FCS cannot award more then 63 full scholarships (they can award fewer / or partials up to 85, however, they cannot exceed the equivalent of 63 full scholarship dollars offered to a maximum of 85 players), the FBS must give 85 full scholarships in football to maintain their FBS status! TV: 2:30 / ESPN 3 Favorite: Arkansas State -14.5!

Texas State 1-3 & Troy 1-1: The Men of Troy and the Bobcats have played 5 times since 2009, Troy has won all five games! TV: 2:30 / ESPN 3 Favorite: Troy -7.5

Arkansas 1-1 @ Auburn 1-1: Arkansas Razorbacks shocked the Mississippi State Bulldogs, 21-14, last week, That said, the week before the dogs shock the entire college football landscape, beating the defending national champs, 44-34! Auburn is 7-4 in the last 11 games, including winning the last 4! TV: 3:00 / SECN; Favorite: Auburn -16.5

Pitt 3-1 @ Boston College 2-1: These old Big East foes have only played twice in the ACC since 2009, They have split a pair of games, Pitt won in 2014, 30-20, with BC finding a way in 2019, 26-19. TV: 3:00 / ACCN Favorite: Pitt -5!

Kansas State2-1 @ TCU 1-1: The Wildcats & Frogs have met 8 times since 2009, they have split the games @ 4 wins each and with each team winning one of the last 2; TCU in 2018, 14-13 & K-State in 2019, 24.17. TV: 3:00 / FOX; Favorite: TCU -8.5

Middle Tennessee 0-4 ! Florida International (FIU) 0-1: The Blue Raiders & the FIU Panthers have played 11 tines since 2009, as both members of the SBC and now, with both teams playing in the East Division of C-USA! MT has won 8 of the 11 games! TV: 3:00 / ESPNU; Favorite: FIU -4.5

Florida Atlantic (FAU) 1-0 @ Southern Miss 1-3: FAU & the Golden Eagles have played twice since 2009. The Owls have won both games, in 2013, they won, 41-7 and again, in 2019, 34-17. TV: Local Access; Favorite: FAU -4!

Alabama 2-0 @ Ole Miss 1-1: As members of the SEC West, the Rebels & Tide have played every year since 2009. The Tide has rolled to a 9-2 record in that time frame. This includes the last four by scores of, 48-43 in 2016, 66-3 in 2017, 62-7 in 2018, & last year, 59-31. Saban & the Lane Train, enough said, this should be fun! TV: 5:00 / ESPN; Favorite: Bama -24

Temple 0-0 @ Navy 1-2: Temple has not been able to get on the field in 2020, this is their 1st game of the Covid-19 Season. The Owls and Midshipmen have played 5 times in the past 11 years, Temple has won 4 of the games, including three in a row. The last meeting was in 2018, a 24-17 Owl win, Navy’s only win in these years was in 2014, 31-24 @ Temple. TV: 5:00 / CBSSN; Favorite: Temple -1.5!

East Carolina 0-2 @ South Florida 1-2: The Bulls & Pirates have played 6 times since we began the site in 2009, USF has won five, losing only the 1st meeting in 2014, 28-17. TV: 6:00 / ESPN+; Favorite: USF -3.5

Miami 3-0 @ Clemson 3-0: Miami appears to be back from the dead, led by the QB, D’Eriq King (Transfer from Houston) and a sporting a better focus under 2nd year coach Manny Diaz. Clemson is led by a generational QB, Trevor Lawrence and a HC who is challenging Bama’s Nick Saban as college football best coach! These team’s are in different divisions in the ACC (Clemson in the Atlantic & Miami in the Coastal), this, in part, explains why the have played only four times in the last 11 years. The Hurricanes last win in the series was in 2010, 30-21. The Last 2 meetings have not been pretty, Clemson won in 2015, 58-0 & again in 2017, 38-3! TV: 6:30 / ABC: Favorite: Clemson -15.5!

Florida State 1-2 @ Notre Dame 2-0: The Irish & Seminoles have played 3 times since 2011, FSU won the 1st 2 games, 18-14 in 2011 & again in 2014, 31-27, while ND put a/the ‘Chop’ on the Noles Noggin in their last meeting, 2018, 42-13! TV: 6:30 / NBC; Favorite: ND -20.5!

UTEP 3-1 @ Louisiana Tech 2-1: Tech is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings, winning by an average score of 18.1 PPG. Last meeting was in 2019, a 42-21 Bulldog win TV: 6:30 / ESPN 2; Favorite: LT -15!

Marshall 2-0 @ Western Kentucky 1-2: This series has been a series of streaks. WK won 3 straight from 2014 through 2016 and then from 2017 through 2019 Marshall has had their way! TV: Local network(s); Favorite: We R Marshall -4!

Mississippi State 1-1 @ Kentucky 0-2: The SEC regularly schedules cross-division opponents (Bama vs Tennessee, LSU vs Florida and so on), MSU & UK fall into this category and as a result, these teams play every year! The MSU Dogs have won 9 of the last 11 vs the UK Cats! TV: 6:30 / SECN; Favorite: UK -3!

UNC Charlotte 0-2 @ North Texas 1-2: These C-USA teams, strangely, have met only once since 2009, in 2019, a 39-38, UNCC win! UNC Charlotte became a member of C-USA, July 1, 2015 & the teams play in different divisions! Still, 5 years and 1 meeting, just seems wrong for conference teams! TV: 7:00 / ESPNU; Favorite: UNCC -2.5

Missouri 0-2 @ LSU 1-1: This is the 3rd all time meeting between the schools. The 2 Tigers, 1st played in the 1979 rendition of Liberty Bowl, a game won by Mizzou, 20-15! Missouri joined the SEC in 2012 and have ‘kicked it off’ only once vs LSU, maybe one to many, as they got a tail-whippin, LSU 42 Mizzou 7. TV: 8:00 / ESPN: Favorite: LSU -20.5

And in these troubled times, I try to remember what my brother Pat says in his book: Attitude, The cornerstone of Leadership; Preach the Gospel, if necessary, use words! Saint Francis of Assisi.

& as always; Enjoy the games!

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Sully’s 4 Pack of Winners

Auburn +7.5 @ Georgia: UGA has won the last 6 times these teams have played “between the Hedges” @ Samford Stadium. The Dawgs have not only won 6 in a row at home, they have prevailed ‘Against the Spread’ (ATS) in all 6 games. That said, Georgia is unsettled @ QB and as of Friday have not announced who will start at QB. It should also be noted, other then George Pickens, UGA is unproven @ WR. While Auburn features their QB, Bo Nix, (2542 passing yards (16-6 TD to INT ratio) and 2 exceptional receivers, Seth Williams & Anthony Schwartz! This is the day’s best game!Sully Says: UGA will win their 7th straight, but not cover the 7.5, take Auburn the the points!

Ole Miss +7 @ Kentucky: Ole Miss took on Florida last week and played very well offensively putting a 35 spot on the Gator’s D! The Rebels’, QB, Matt Corral, passed for 395 yards, 3TD’s & 1 INT and WR, Elijah Moore caught 10 balls for 225 yards, while averaging 22.5 YPR. Kentucky played well with one exception, turnovers, the Cats turned the ball over 3 times in their last week lost to Auburn. Sully Says: take the 7 points and Ole Miss, as the Rebels put a 35 plus spot on a UK defense that is not as strong as Florida’s!

UNC -10 @ Boston College: UNC has 1 win so far this season, The Heals beat Syracuse, 31-6. BC has won 2, the Eagles have taken down Duke 26-6 & Texas State, 24-21. North Carolina QB, Sam Howell will have a big day vs the BC as he has all nine receivers back from a year ago, including his two 1,000 yard wide outs, Dyami Brown & Dazz Newsome. Sully Says: while the BC defense is better on all three levels, however, not good enough. Take UNC & give BC the 10 points.

Texas A&M @ Bama -17: This game is more hype then substance! Kellen Mond is the most overrated QB in the country, he simply does not show up in big games. look for Bama to score early, often & late in this game. Bama’s QB, Mack Jones, WR, DeVonta Smith & Jaylen Waddle, and RB Najee Harris talents will be on display for the full 60 minutes and A&M will be able to do little to nothing to slow them down! Sully Says: the Tide Rolls & Rolls & Rolls; take Bama & give A&M the 17 points!

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Five Best P5 Games of Week Five

5. Oklahoma 1-1 @ ISU 1-1: TV: 6:30 / ABC; Favorite: OU -9: Since the 2010 season these teams have played 10 times, OU is 9-1 vs the Cyclones in that time frame! ISU’s lone win came in 2017, 38-31, @ Gaylord Family Memorial Stadium in Norman, Oklahoma! In fact, the last three games have been competitive, as mentioned, Iowa State won in 2017, 38-31, while OU won in 2018, 37-27 and again in 2019, 42-41!

The Cyclones were shocked in their opener, by Louisiana, 31-14 and struggled with TCU before prevailing, 37-34. The Sooners’ opener went as expected vs an FCS team from the Missouri Valley Football Conference, Missouri State, 48-0 rout, then the impossible happened, Kansas State down by 21 (35-14) rose up & scored 24 unanswered points taking down, OU in front of a stunned, however limited, Sooner crowd!

This game features 2 of the best QB’s in the B-12, OU’s Spencer Rattler & ISU’s Brock Purdy. Two questions to be answered in this game, 1) Can OU play D? 2) Is ISU a contender or a pretender?

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Sully’s CFP uses very strategic and complicated mathematical algorithms to determine which team comes out ahead in our college football matchup calculator. For each area of superiority, a team will be awarded 1 point. Team with the most points wins!

http://sullyscollegefootballpage.com/Football_Stats/Matchup.cfm 

Replace Wisconsin vs Iowa with OU & ISU and the site will compare these teams using the statistical data we have for them in 2020!

4. Texas Tech 1-1 @ Kansas State 1-1; TV: 2:30 / ABC; Favorite: KSU -3.5: These teams have faced off 10 times since 2009, they have only miss playing one another in 2010. The Wildcats have won 8 to the last 10 meetings with Tech, including four in a row.

K-State & TX Tech were, @ least arguably in the 2 most exciting games of week four. Kansas State shocked the college football world taking down perennial B-12 champion Oklahoma, 38-35. While the Red Raiders had Texas down, in the 4th quarter, by 15 points with less then 3 1/2 minutes to play! Last minute heroics by Texas’ all everything QB, Sam Ehlinger, saved the Horns’ from the fate suffered by OU. Texas won in OT, 63-56! Ehlinger passed for 2 TD’s, a 2-point conversion to force the extra period, and then he finished off the Raiders upset bid in Overtime!

Saturday’s game is critical for both teams. Tech coming off an emotional loss (63-57 in OT to Texas) and an embarrassing win in week one, beating an FCS team, Houston Baptist, 35-33. Second year Coach, Matty Wells’ team is searching for an identity, we will have a better idea of who they are come Saturday night. The same can be said for K-State. Who are they, Giant killers (KSU 38 OU 35) or a second tier team in the Sun Belt Conference (Louisiana 31 KSU 13)?

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Check out the Head to Head on SCFP’s Game Simulator!
http://sullyscollegefootballpage.com/Football_Stats/Matchup.cfm

3. Old Miss 0-1 @ Kentucky 0-1: TV: 3:00 / SECN; Favorite: UK -7: Ole Miss played well offensively against Florida, scoring 35 points against Danny Mullen’s Gators. That said, Lane Kiffin will need to revisit his defense or lack their of, giving up 51 point to Florida’s dynamic duo, QB Kyle Trask & WR, Kyle Pitts!

Meanwhile, the Kentucky Wildcats took on a highly regarded Auburn team & the Tiger’s sophomore QB, Bo Mix. The Kentucky D held the Tigers to 91 yards of rushing offense, while running for 145. UK’s QB, Terry Wilson passed for more yards than Mix, 239 to 233 and the Cat’s out gained the Tigers in total yards, 384 to 324. Further, UK committed fewer penalties than Auburn (4 for 40yards to the Tigers 7 for 55 yards) and were better on 3rd down ( UA was 4 /10 while UK was 12 of 19). So how did Kentucky lose this ballgame? Simple, Auburn did not turnover the ball, while forcing Kentucky into committing 3 TO’s!

Ole Miss & UK have hooked up 3 times since 2009, Ole Miss is 2-1, including winning their last meeting in 2017, 37-34, @ Lexington’s Kroger Field!

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See what the The Game simulator thinks. Click on the link and you will have to enter Kentucky & Ole Miss by using the drop boxes!

http://sullyscollegefootballpage.com/Football_Stats/Matchup.cfm

2. Texas A&M 1-0 @ Alabama 1-0: TV: 2:30 / CBS; Favorite: Bama -17: Alabama open the 2020 campaign by soundly beating Mizzou, 38-19, the Tide rolled to a 35-6 lead entering the 4th quarter. They then subbed freely in the 4th quarter, pulled QB, Mac Jones for 5 star recruit, Bryce Young, who had his struggles against a focused and determined Mizzou Defense.

The Tigers kept the pedal to the metal and as a result, the final score appears deceivingly close. First year Missouri Coach, Eli Drinkwitz team could only muster 69 yards rushing against an Alabama D led & inspired by the return of All American MLB, Dylan Moses.

Bama’s QB, Mac Jones looked really good, 18 of 24 for 249 yards, 2 TDs’ & Zero Picks, WRs’, Jalen Waddle (8 receptions for 134 yards, 16.8 YPR, & 2 TDs’) & DeVonta Jones (8 for 89 yards, & 11. 8 YPR) are lighting in a bottle, & RB, Najee Harris (17 carries for 98 yards, 5.8 YPC, & 3 TDs’) is a beast!

Meanwhile, Texas A&M struggled with Vandy and their feisty coach, Derek Mason, winning, 17-12! Vanderbilt won the turnover battle 2 to 3 and was better than A&M on 3rd down.

A&M’s QB, Kellen Mond, who has had a history of not playing well against better competition, better address this short comings or this week will be a disaster in Tuscaloosa.

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Since joining the SEC in 2012, the Aggies have beaten the Tide once, the 1st time they met as SEC opponents in 2012, 29-24! That said, Alabama has won the last 7 by an average of 22 points.

Here is what the game Simulator on Sully’s College Football Page has to say about this week’s game!
http://sullyscollegefootballpage.com/Football_Stats/Matchup.cfm

1.Auburn 1-0 @ Georgia 1-0: TV: 6:30 / ESPN; Favorite: UGA -7: This game is considered the “Deep South Oldest Rivalry” (UVA vs UNC are considered the South Oldest Rivalry). This is the 125th meeting, the teams 1st met on February 20, 1892, Auburn prevailed, 10-0, yet UGA leads a close series, 60-56-8 and has the longest winning streak of 9 straight (1923-1931).

The teams have met 12 times since 2009, in that time frame, the Dawgs are 9-3 vs the Tigers, and have won 3 in a row. Auburn has lost the last 6 times they have traveled to Athens and UGA has covered the spread all 6 times!

Last week neither team dominated their opponent, Auburn beat Kentucky, 29-13, while UGA handled Arkansas, 37-10. Georgia trailed at halftime 7-5, was 6 for 20 on 3rd down, & committed 12 penalties for 108 yards. Auburn was outgained and out played by Kentucky, the fact the UK could not hold on to the ball (3 Turnovers to Auburns 0) was what led to their demise.

In 2020, a 10 game SEC schedule is a “Murderer’s Row”, akin to the New York Yankee line-up in the 1920’s and losses will be more common with 4 crossover games instead of 2 divisional cross games! The winner of this game will have an advantage as both of these teams will likely win 7 or 8 games this year. A win here could act as a tie breaker that could get you into the SEC championship Game! A win here is big!

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The Game Simulator says:
http://sullyscollegefootballpage.com/Football_Stats/Matchup.cfm

Enjoy the Games!

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Sully’s 4 Pack of Winners in Week Four!

To say last week’s picks were a disaster would be kind. We were 0-3, thankfully it was our worst week ever vs picking against the Spread!

Here is what happened. Oklahoma State struggled against Tulsa, the Cowboys won, as predicted, but did not cover the 23 they were giving Golden Hurricanes.

Georgia Tech was getting 7.5 points vs Central Florida and coming off an impressive win over Florida State, 16-13! UCF took GT to the woodshed blasting the Rambling Wreck, 49-21! We predicted that UCF would win, but not cover … oops!

Finally, We took Louisville and gave Miami the 2.5 points. The Canes played well in all phases, as did Louisville on offense, however, the Cardinals did not show up on defense and when they did… they were clueless!

This week is all about redemption! 4-0 Baby!!! So here we go…

All lines are opening lines on the Vegas Hot$heets!http://www.vegashotsheet.com/LiveLines-NCAA.html

Game One: Alabama @ Missouri, Line; Bama -27!

These teams have played 3 times since Mizzou joined the SEC, Bama won twice by the identical score of, 42-10 and the last time they met, the Tide rolled, 39-10! Bama returns 12 starters,(7 on O & 5 on D), they also will bring an attitude with a focus! Last year was the 1st time the Tide failed to roll into the CFP. They are favored to win the West Division and while the Tigers are in the East, their quest to return to the CFP begins tomorrow. Mizzou returns 11 starters (4 on O & 7 on D) and a new coach, Eli Drinkwitz, a new DC, & a new QB. Sully Says: Take Bama and give the Tigers the 27!

Game Two: Mississippi State @ LSU, Line: LSU -19!

It would be fair to say that no team in the history of college football has lost more high quality players than LSU did to the 2020 NFL draft! The Tigers had 14 players drafted in the in the NFL’s seven rounds. The most ever, since the League moved from 12 to 7 levels of selection! LSU returns the fewest starters of any Power 5 (P5) program 8 (3 on O & 5 on D)! Enter Mike Leach (HC last year @ Washington State), his Air Raid attack, and his new QB, KJ Costello, a grad transfer from Stanford! Sully Says: Take Mississippi State & the 19 points!

Game Three: Florida @ Ole Miss, Line: Florida -12.5!

These teams have played only 5 times since 2000, the last meeting was in 2015 @ Gainesville’s Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Florida won, 38-10! Ole Miss leads the series, 12-11-1. The respective coaches, by themselves, make this match-up intriguing. Danny Mullen @ Florida, in his 3rd year @ Florida (21-5) and many are predicting that the Gators are ready to unseat Georgia in the East Division & Lane Kiffin, 1st year @ Ole Miss, is no stranger to SEC success, from his days @ Alabama! This is one game that I will be tuned in on Saturday. Sully Says: Take Florida and give the Rebels the 12.5!

Game Four: South Carolina @ Tennessee, Line: Tennessee -3: This is a desperate game for SC’s Will Muschamp and his staff. Muschamp is beginning his 5th year and is only one game over 500 @ 26-25, This will not fly in Columbia and the Gamecocks are up against it, especially when you look at their revised 2020 schedule. They have drawn Texas A&M, Auburn, LSU, & Ole Miss from the West Division, and when you coupled this with Florida & Georgia from the East … ouch! The QB match-up is roughly even, UT has an unit edge @ RB, O-Line, D-Line, LB, DB, ST, & the Volunteers have recruited better. Sorry Will; Sully Says: Take Tennessee and give the Gamecocks the 3!

Take a look at our Recruiting Page and compare who recruits better with the game’s pick! http://sullyscollegefootballpage.com/content.cfm?PageID=14

Enjoy the Games!

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