Sully's Big Blog! Commentary on College Football, Weekly Games, And Strange Statistics!

Southeastern Conference 2022 Schedule

As we move into the NFL Playoffs and with sports best tournament, the Final Four in college basketball on the horizon, here is peek over the horizon, the so called ‘look down radar’. A sneak preview of the 2022 college football schedule.

1st up, is the Mighty Southeastern conference!

On Sully’s College Football Page, we use a system of color coding to make the reading of a particular team’s, strength of schedule, easily recognized and understood!

The color Red is used to identify conference games, Yellow, for Power Five (P5) opponents, Green, to signify Group of Five (G5) teams, and finally, we use Light Blue for the Football Championship Subdivision (FCS). The FCS can offer up to 63 scholarship (not more than 63, yet can offer fewer), while the Football Bowl Subdivision ( P5 & G5) must provide 85 scholarships or lose their status as an FBS program!

In should be noted, the terms P5 & G5 are not NCAA language, but rather the constructs of five conferences (ACC, B-10, B-12, PAC 12, & SEC) and Notre Dame! No one is quiet sure of the origin of these terms, Power Five & Group of Five, they seem to have evolved over time, suffice to say, they are not NCAA Terms!

That said: the Southeastern Conference plays 56 Non-Conference games and in 2022, 16 of the tilts are vs Power Five program, 27 vs G5s, & 13 vs FCS teams!

Lets begin in the West Division by identifying their P5 opponents and putting a number to the G5 & FCS teams they will play in 2022.

From the West Division, Alabama Travels to Austin to take on Texas, Arkansas heads west to take on BYU (the SEC & B-10 count BYU & Army as P5 opponents for scheduling purposes) while Auburn hosts’ Penn State on Sept. 17th. LSU opens its season @ Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans vs Florida State, Mississippi State travels west to battle Arizona, while fellow Mississippian, OLE Miss, travels to Georgia to take on Georgia Tech in Atlanta, and finally, Texas A&M welcomes the Miami Hurricanes to College Station. The West Division’s seven (7) members each play one (1) game against a P5 opponent!

The West Division plays a G5 opponent on fifteen (15) occasions and have scheduled FCS teams on six (6) dates.

The West Division’s schedule breakdown is 28 NC games, 7 vs P5, 15 against G5s and 6 with FCS squads! Texas A&M is the only team in the West that is not playing an FCS opponent!

In the East Division, Vanderbilt travels to North Carolina to take on Wake Forest, Tennessee heads North to battle Pitt, South Carolina stays home and gets it on with in-state rival, @ Clemson. Missouri crosses a state line, to line it up vs Kansas State, Kentucky stays in the Blue Grass State and kicks it off, @ home, against Louisville, Georgia takes on two (2) P5s, Oregon @ a neutral site (Atlanta) & Georgia Tech @ home and finally, Florida, just like its friends from Georgia, plays two (2) P5s, 1st the Gators welcome Utah to the ‘Sunshine State’ and then travel from Gainesville to Tallahassee, to “lace-em-up” vs Florida State, in the Chop or Chomp Game! The East plays nine (9) P5 teams, every member plays one (1) with the exception of Georgia & Florida, who battle two (2) P5s!

The East Division plays a G5 opponent on twelve (12) occasions and have schedule seven (7) FCS teams!

The East Division’s schedule breakdown is 28 NC games, 9 vs P5, 12 against G5s and 7 with FCS squads! Every team in the East plays, at least, one (1) P5, one (1) G5, & one (1) FCS program!

The Southeastern Conference plays 8 conference games and 4 Non-Conference (NC) games to reach their allotted regular season 12 game total. As a result, the conference has to schedules 56 NC games (14 teams X 4 = 56) to reach their their conference total of 168 games (112 conference games + 56 NC tilts = 168 total blood-baths in the Southeastern Conference).

As a conference, they play 16 P5 opponents; two (2) of these games are at Neutral Sites, Five (5) are to be played in Southeastern Stadiums, & Nine (9) of these games will be played as true road games; (two (2) in B-12 Arenas, one (1) in an Independent Stadium, one (1) in a PAC 12 House, & four (4) in ACC territory)!

The SEC plays 27 G5 and 13 FCS all @ home, except for Vanderbilt, who plays @ Hawaii (I get that, I would like to go with them) yet, I’m confused as to why Commodores are traveling to Dekalb, IL to take on Northern Illinois, a MAC team? These games are usually best thought of as ‘cash for a home date/win’ as a result, the P5 teams rarely travel! I do not believe, since I started the site (2009), I have ever seen a P5 program, play two (2) G5s on the road in the same season (one, yes … two, 2 never). Interesting!

The 2022 Southeastern Non-Conference season looks like this, 56 NC games, 43 are home contests, 11 are road battles, & 2 are scheduled at neutral sites!

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SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl

The 2021 Las Vegas Bowl will be played on December 30, 2021, with kickoff scheduled for 9:30 p.m. The game will air on ESPN @ 9:30 and will be the 29th edition of the Las Vegas Bowl (the 2020 edition was cancelled due to the Covid Pandemic). Sponsored by a roofing distribution company, the game will be officially known as the SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl:. Teams: Wisconsin (B-10) 8-4 vs Arizona State (P-12) 8-4

Bowl Location: Las Vegas, NV

Day, Date & Time: Saturday, December, 30, 2021, 9:30

Network: ESPN

Best Win(s): UW: beat Iowa (10-3), 27-7; ASU: beat UCLA (8-4), 42-23

Worst Loss(es): UW:  lost to Minnesota, 24-13; ASU:lost to OR St (7-5) 24-10

Common Opponents: None!

Favorite: Wisconsin -7 (All lines are opening lines & all recommend picks are based on opening lines)

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will perform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is, say Notre Dame is playing Wisconsin … we take ND’s total yards on offense, add it to the number the Badgers give up on defense, we get a total and then divide the total by 2 to get an average. We then invert the process, we now take Wisconsin’s total offense, add it to what the Irish give up on defense, get a 2nd total, and then divide that number by 2, to get the second average! The greater number (with the exception of Turnovers, lower # wins) is then determined to have the advantage (please note …. a statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed: 1) Total Yards, 2) Rushing, 3) Passing, 4) Scoring, 5) 3rd Down (Conversions /Stops), 6) Turnovers, 7) Red Zone Scores (TD’s & FG), & 8) Red Zone TD’s (only TD’s)!  That said… here are the results of the Head-to-Head Analysis:

Total Yards O VS D 354 322UW +1
Passing O VS D 181 187 ASU +1  
Rushing O VS D 173 135 UW +1
Scoring O VS D 23.5  23   UW +1
Turnovers O VS D 1.7 1.8 UW +1
3rd Conv % O VS D 35 37 ASU +1
Red Zone Scores 84  76 UW +1
Red Zone TDs 56 58 ASU +1
Totals 5 3

Wisconsin outperforms Arizona State in 5 of the 8 Categories

The Head-to-Head Game Simulator thinks: Bucky will gain more yards than Sparky (354 to 322), run the ball better than the Devils (172.5 to 135), win in the Scoring Category (23.5 to 23) the Turnover Assessment (1.7 to 1.8), & and be more productive in the RZ all Scores (83.5% to 76%).

Sully Says: What a great game, B-10 Power vs PAC 12 Speed! The Badgers are coming off their most disappointing performance of the 2021 campaign, a 24 13 loss to Minnesota, while the Sun Devils are fresh off a, 38-15, win over their in-state rival, Arizona! ASU is going to place 7 to 8 defenders in the box (to stop the run), play man vs UW receivers, & force Mertz to beat them! That was what the Gophers did and Mertz did not respond to the challenge; 21/38 for 171 yards (55% completion rate), 4.5 YPA, 0 TD & 1 INT …. He needs to step up in this game or Bucky will get stepped on!

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Bowl Games for the 2021 Season from December 17th through January 11th!

There are 42 Bowl Games in 2021 (not counting the CFP Championship Game) and the exact number of teams, (84) that were needed, qualified, 42 games = 84 teams! To qualify a team must win a minimum of 6 games. It should be noted, one (1) of the wins can be against an FCS team (63 scholarship program)!

Friday 12/17/21

Bahamas Bowl: Middle Tennessee (C-USA) 6-6 vs Toledo (MAC) 7-5; Site: Thomas A Robinson Stadium; Location: Nassau, NP; TV: 11:00 / ESPN; Favorite: Toledo -9.5

Tailgreeter Cure Bowl: Northern Illinois (MAC) 9-4 vs Coastal Carolina (SBC) 10-2; Site: Exploria Stadium; Location: Orlando, FL; TV: 5:00 / ESPN2; Favorite: CCU -10

Saturday 12/18/21 Boca Raton Bowl: Western Kentucky (C-USA) 8-5 vs Appalachian State (SBC) 10-3; Site: FAU Stadium; Location: Boca Raton, FL; TV: 10:00 / ESPN; Favorite: Appalachian State -2.5

PUBG Mobile New Mexico Bowl: UTEP (C-USA) 7-5 vs Fresno State (MWC) 9-3; Site: University Stadium; Location: Albuquerque, NM; TV: 1:15 / ESPN; Favorite: Fresno State -11.0

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl: UAB (C-USA) 8-4 vs BYU (IND) 10-2; Site: Independence Stadium; Location: Shreveport, LA; TV: 2:30 / ABC; Favorite: BYU -7.0

Lending Tree Bowl: Eastern Michigan (MAC) 7-5 vs Liberty (IND) 7-5; Site: Hancock Whitney Stadium; Location: Mobile, AL; TV: 4:45 / ESPN; Favorite: Liberty -8.5

Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl Presented by Stifel: Utah State (MWC) 10-3 vs Oregon State (PAC 12) 7-5; Site: SoFi Stadium; Location: Inglewood, CA; TV: 6:30 / ABC; Favorite: Oregon State -7.0

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: Louisiana (SBC) 12-1 vs Marshall (C-USA) 7-5; Site: Caesars Superdome; Location: New Orleans, LA; TV: 8:15 / ESPN; Favorite: Louisiana -6.0

Monday 12/20/21

Myrtle Beach Bowl Presented by TaxAct: Old Dominion (C-USA) 6-6 vs Tulsa (AAC) 6-6; Site: Brooks Stadium; Location: Conway, SC; TV: 1:30 / ESPN; Favorite: Tulsa -9.5

Tuesday 12/21/21

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Kent State (MAC) 6-6 vs Wyoming (MWC) 6-6; Site: Albertsons Stadium; Location: Boise, ID; TV: 2:30 / ESPN; Favorite: Wyoming -3.0

Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl: UTSA (C-USA) 12-1 vs San Diego State (MWC) 10-2; Site: Toyota Stadium; Location: Frisco, TX; TV: 6:30 / ESPN; Favorite: UTSA -2.5

Wednesday 12/22/21

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl : Missouri (SEC) 6-6 vs Army (IND) 8-3; Site: Amon G. Carter Stadium; Location: Fort Worth, TX; TV: 7:00 / ESPN; Favorite: Army -3.5

Thursday 12/23/21

Frisco Football Classic Bowl : North Texas (C-USA) 6-6 vs Miami (MAC) 6-6; Site: Toyota Stadium; Location: Frisco, TX; TV: 2:30 / ESPN; Favorite: Miami OH -3.5

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl: UCF (AAC) 8-4 vs Florida (SEC) 6-6; Site: Raymond James Stadium; Location: Tampa, FL; TV: 6:00 / ESPN; Favorite: Florida -6.5

Friday 12/24/21

EasyPost Hawaii Bowl: Memphis (AAC) 6-6 vs Hawaii (MWC) 6-7; Site: Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex; Location: Honolulu, HI; TV: 7:00 / ESPN; Favorite: Memphis -5.0

Saturday 12/25/21

TaxAct Camellia Bowl: Georgia State (SBC) 7-5 vs Ball State (MAC) 6-6; Site: Crampton Bowl; Location: Montgomery, AL; TV: 1:30 / ESPN; Favorite: Georgia State -4.5

Monday 12/27/21

Quick Lane Bowl: Western Michigan (MAC) 7-5 vs Nevada (MWC) 8-4; Site: Ford Field; Location: Detroit, MI; TV: 10:00 / ESPN; Favorite: Nevada -1.0

Military Bowl Presented by Peraton: Boston College (ACC) 6-6 vs East Carolina (AAC) 7-5; Site: Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium; Location: Annapolis, MD; TV: 1:30 / ESPN; Favorite: BC -3.5

Tuesday 12/28/21

TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl: Houston (AAC) 11-2 vs Auburn (SEC) 6-6; Site: Protective Stadium; Location: Birmingham, AL; TV: 11:00 / ESPN; Favorite: Auburn -3.5

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl: Air Force (MWC) 9-3 vs Louisville (ACC) 6-6; Site: Gerald J Ford Stadium; Location: Dallas, TX; TV: 2:15 / ESPN; Favorite: Louisville -1.5

AutoZone Liberty Bowl: Mississippi State (SEC) 7-5 vs Texas Tech (B-12) 6-6; Site: Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium; Location: Memphis, TN; TV: 5:45 / ESPN; Favorite: Mississippi State -8.5

San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl: UCLA (PAC 12) 8-4 vs NC State (ACC) 8-4; Site: Petco Park; Location: San Diego, CA; TV: 7:00 / FOX; Favorite: NC State -1.0

Guaranteed Rate Bowl: West Virginia (B-12) 6-6 vs Minnesota (B-10) 8-4; Site: Chase Field; Location: Phoenix, AZ; TV: 9:15 / ESPN; Favorite: Minnesota -4.0

Wednesday 12/29/21

Wasabi Fenway Bowl: SMU (AAC) 8-4 vs UVA (ACC) 6-6; Site: Fenway Park; Location: Boston, MA; TV: 10:00 / ESPN; Favorite: Virginia -1.5

New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Maryland (B-10) 6-6 vs Virginia Tech (ACC) 6-6; Site: Yankee Stadium; Location: Bronx, NY; TV: 1:15 / ESPN; Favorite: VT -1.0

Cheez-it Bowl: Clemson (ACC) 9-3 vs Iowa State (B-12) 7-5; Site: Camping World Stadium; Location: Orlando, FL; TV: 4:45 / ESPN; Favorite: Pick ’em

Valero Alamo Bowl: Oregon (PAC 12) 10-3 vs Oklahoma (B-12) 10-2; Site: Alamodome; Location: San Antonio, TX; TV: 8:15 / ESPN; Favorite: OU -4.5

Thursday 12/30/21

Duke’s Mayo Bowl: North Carolina (AAC) 6-6 vs South Carolina (SEC) 6-6; Site: Bank of America Stadium; Location: Charlotte, NC; TV: 10:30 / ESPN; Favorite: UNC -7.0

TransPerfect Music City Bowl: Tennessee (SEC) 7-5 vs Purdue (B-10) 8-4; Site: Nissan Stadium; Location: Nashville, TN; TV: 2:00 / ESPN; Favorite: Tennessee -4.0

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl: Pitt (AAC) 11-5 vs Michigan State (B-10) 10-2; Site: Mercedes Benz Stadium; Location: Atlanta, GA; TV: 6:00 / ESPN; Favorite: Pick ’em

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl: Wisconsin (B-10) 8-4 vs Arizona State (PAC 12) 8-4; Site: Allegiant Stadium; Location: Las Vegas, NV; TV: 9:30 / ESPN; Favorite: Wisconsin -7.0

Friday 12/31/21

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl: Wake Forest (ACC) 10-3 vs Rutgers (B-10) 5-7; Site: TIAA Bank Field; Location: Jacksonville, FL; TV: 10:00 / ESPN; Favorite: Texas A&M -7.0

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl: Washington State (PAC 12) 7-5 vs Miami FL (ACC) 7-5; Site: Sun Bowl; Location: El Paso, TX; TV: 11:00 / CBS; Favorite: Miami -2.5

Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl: Central Michigan (MAC) 8-4 vs Boise State (MWC) 7-5; Site: Arizona Stadium; Location: Tucson, AZ; TV: 1:00 /
Barstool App ; Favorite: Boise State -8.0

CFP Semi Final @ the Goodyear Cotton Bowl: Cincinnati (AAC) 13-0 vs Alabama (SEC) 12-1; Site: AT&T Stadium; Location: Arlington, TX; TV: 2:30 / ESPN; Favorite: Alabama -13.5

CFP Semi Final @ the Capital One Orange Bowl: Georgia (SEC) 12-1 vs Michigan (B-10) 12-1; Site: Hard Rock Stadium; Location: Miami Gardens, FL; TV: 6:30 / ESPN; Favorite: Georgia -7.5

Saturday 1/1/22

Outback Bowl: Penn State (B-10) 7-5 vs Arkansas (SEC) 8-4; Site: Raymond James Stadium; Location: Tampa, FL; TV: 11:00 / ESPN2 ; Favorite: Penn State -2.5

PlayStation Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State (B-12) 11-2 vs Notre Dame (IND) 11-1; Site: State Farm Stadium; Location: Glendale, AZ; TV: 12:00 / ESPN ; Favorite: Notre Dame -2.5

Vrbo Citrus Bowl: Iowa (B-10) 10-3 vs Kentucky (SEC) 9-3; Site: Camping World Stadium; Location: Orlando, FL; TV: 12:00 / ABC ; Favorite: Kentucky -2.5

Rose Bowl Game Presented by Capital One Venture X: Utah (PAC 12) 10-3 vs Ohio State (B-10) 10-2; Site: Rose Bowl; Location: Pasadena, CA; TV: 4:00 / ESPN ; Favorite: Ohio State -6.5

Allstate Sugar Bowl : Baylor (B-12) 11-2 vs Ole Miss (SEC) 10-2; Site: Caesar Superdome; Location: New Orleans, LA; TV: 7:45 / ESPN ; Favorite: Baylor-1.5

Tuesday 1/4/22

TaxAct Texas Bowl : LSU (SEC) 11-2 vs Kansas State (B-12) 7-5; Site: NRG Stadium; Location: Houston, TX; TV: 8:00 / ESPN ; Favorite: LSU-1.0

Monday 1/10/22

CFP Final @ Lucas Oil Stadium: Georgia/Michigan (SEC or B-10) vs Cincinnati/Alabama (AAC or SEC); Site: Lucas Oil Stadium; Location: Indianapolis, IN; TV: 7:00 / ESPN; Favorite: TBD

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Pat Sullivan is with Steve Hagen / Discussing Pat’s 44 year Basketball Career, Focus on Leadership & Attitude

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Army vs Navy the 122nd Meeting

The first game between Army /Navy was played in 1890, with Navy emerging as the winner, 24-0. They have played every year since, with the following 10 exceptions.  

In 1893, following a Navy victory, an incident after the game almost led to a duel between a Rear Admiral and Brigadier General. As a result of that event, President Cleveland called a cabinet meeting, after which, the Secretary of the Navy, Hillary A. Herbert and Secretary of War, Daniel S. Lamont, issued orders that the respective Academies could play only home game. These orders effectively defused the situation, as the game was placed on hold (1894-1898) for five years.

The teams resumed playing in 1899, Army won 17-5!

In 1909, a cadet, Eugene Byrne, died in a game against Harvard and as a result, Army cancelled the rest of their season.

During WW I, the game was put on hold in 1917 and again, in 1918 and finally, in 1923-24, the games were cancelled when the Academies could not agree on eligibility rules for the players.

“The Event” was moved to Philadelphia in 1899 and has been played in the “City of Brotherly Love” (Greek Origins) for most of the 20th and 21st Centuries. The host sites include the following cities and number of games played in the respective venues: Philadelphia: 83 games, New York: 11 Baltimore: 4, East Rutherford: 4, Annapolis & West Point: 7 (1890 through 1893, 1942, 1943, & 2020), & Chicago (1926), Pasadena (1983), & Princeton (1905) each have hosted a game!

This weekend’s game marks the 122th meeting between the Academies, Navy leads the series 61 (wins) 53 (loses) and 7 (ties).

In 1926, the game played @ Chicago’s Soldier Field to honor those who fought in WW I, Navy entered the game undefeated and Army having lost to only ND, the teams battled to a 21-21 tie in front on 100,000 Americans. Navy was awarded the National Championship!

In the both the 1944 & 1945 Games the teams entered the contest ranked 1st & 2nd in the country. In the 1944 game, Army won 23-7 and was crowned National Champion. In the 1945 game Army entered the game unbeaten while Navy had battled to 7-0-1 record (tied with ND 6-6 in Cleveland) the Cadets won the game (32-13) the National Championship for the 2nd year in a row! Army would win their 3rd (in a row) & final, National Championship in 1946, finishing 9-0-1 (tied ND, 0-0, @ Yankee Stadium) while taking down the Midshipmen, 21-18!

In 1963, Navy finished 9-1 and were ranked as the nation’s 2nd best team! Roger Staubach won the Heisman Trophy, beat ND, 35-14 (Navy would lose the next 44 games against the Irish, until their win in 2007, 46-44 in 3 OTs) & played the #1 ranked team in the country, Texas, losing 28-6, in the Cotton Bowl. Instance Reply made its 1st appearance in the 1963 Army Navy Game!

Since the 1963 season, Army has finished the regular season ranked, in the top 25, just twice, in 1996, 24th & in 2018, 22nd, while Navy has finished a season ranked only once, from the days of Staubach, in 2015, @ 21!    

The teams have entered their annual battle with both squads having winning records only four times since the 1963 game, 1996, 2010, 2016 & 2017 season. This year, Army enters the game with an 8-3 record, while Navy has struggled, coming in @ 3-8 in the 2021 season!

The days of this game having national championship implications or the teams being national powers have long since faded into history. High academic standards, potential NFL career opportunities, weight/height limits, and military commitment upon graduation have greatly diminished the talent pool for the Academies. Yet the intensity of the play, the games significance for the players, and the day, date & time the NCAA schedules the ‘Event’ if anything, have grown!

Navy won the game 14 straight times, 2002 from 2015 and some of those games have not been close. In 2006, Navy won, 26-14; 2007, 38-3; 2008, 34-0; 2009, 17-3; & in 2010, 31-17. That said, the game in 2011 was 24-21 in the 4th Quarter, before Navy kicked a field goal to secure the 27-21 win and with exception of 2013, a 34-7 Navy win, the games have been decided by single digits, 2012, 17-13; 2014, 17-10, and 2015, 21-17!

Then, in 2016, Army finally broke through and won the annual battle 21-17. The Black Knight would then win three (3) of the next four (4) games (2017, 14-13, 2018, 17-10 & 2020, 15-0)!

The boys & girls in the desert have made Army a 7.5-point favorite in 2021!

Having a brother-in-law, and two nephews, who are West Point Graduates, I have to say, I’m good with that spread, and respectively, mind you, respectively … Go Army!

SCFP was really happy that the NCAA agreed to move this game back a week. America needs to celebrate the young men and women, who are willing to make the commitment and sacrifices a military career demand(s).

It is absolutely fitting that the last regular season college football game be played between Army & Navy and played on a weekend, when all other FBS programs are idle and, hopefully, honoring their gridiron peers!

Americans will / should always honor the participants in this game, …. period… no question! Yet, for it to remain America’s greatest sports rivalry, Army needed to step up in 2016 and put an end to that 14-year nose-bleed. They did and have now won 4 of the last five! Now it is time for Navy to step up, Don’t give up the ship, Damn the Torpedoes, Scratch one flattop and you may fire when ready Gridley! Go Navy!  Go Army!

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FCS Tournament 1st Round Games 11/27/21

The link provided below will take you SCFP Game Simulator, you will see two (2) teams listed, Wisconsin & Notre Dame, substitute Sacred Heart & Holy Cross and you will be given a statistical winner in the 8 categories it assesses! Please use it for all games listed in this blog and also note, for reasons related to our weekly contest, the Game Simulator is unavailable on game day! Check it out!

Oh yeah, one other thing, do not worry about Home Team/Away Team … Sul has no clue how the boys & girls in the desert factor in home field advantage (I’m thinking Professor Plum’s late uncle, with the plunger, in the outhouse … Sul’s not even on the Board)! So no worries about how you identify the teams!

Sacred Heart 8-3 (Northeast Conference / NEC) @ Holy Cross 9-2 (Patriot League / PL): TV: ESPN+ / 11:00; Sully’s College Football Page (SCFP) Game Simulator Says: Holy Cross dominates this Game, winning seven (7) of the eight (8) categories assessed (Total Offense, Rushing, Scoring, Turnovers, 3rd Down Conversion %age, RZ all Scores, & RZ TDs only). Sacred Heart out-performs Holy Cross only in the passing category, 168 yards to 159.5 passing yards! Winner: Holy Cross!

The #5 Seed, Villanova awaits the winner in Round 2!

Davidson 8-2 (Pioneer Football League / PFL) @ Kennesaw State 9-1 (Big South Conference / BSC): TV: ESPN+ / 1:00; Sully’s College Football Page (SCFP) Game Simulator Says: Kennesaw State wins this Game, out-performing Davidson in six (6) of the eight (8) categories assessed (Rushing, Scoring, Turnovers, 3rd Down Conversion %age, RZ all Scores, & RZ TDs only). Davidson out-performs Kennesaw only in the Total Offense, 380 to 368 yards & in passing yards, 168 to 155.5! Winner: Kennesaw State!

The #7 Seed, East Tennessee State awaits the Winner in Round 2

Stephen F. Austin 8-3 (ASUN-WAC) @ Incarnate Word 9-2 (Southland Conference / SLC): TV: ESPN+ / 2:00; Sully’s College Football Page (SCFP) Game Simulator Says: Stephen F. Austin wins this Game, out-performing UWI in six (6) of the eight (8) categories assessed (Total Yards, Passing, Rushing, Scoring, Turnovers, & 3rd Down Conversion %age). Incarnate Word betters’ SFA only in RZ scoring %age; All Scores 80% to 76.5& & TDs Only, 66% to 54.5%! Winner: Stephen F. Austin!

The #1 Seed, Sam Houston awaits the Winner in Round 2

UC Davis 8-3 (Big SKY / B-SKY) @ South Dakota State 8-3 (Missouri Valley Football Conference / MVFC): TV: ESPN+ / 2:00; Sully’s College Football Page (SCFP) Game Simulator Says: South Dakota State wins this Game, out-performing UC Davis in seven (7) of the eight (8) categories assessed (Total Yards, Passing, Rushing, Scoring, Turnovers, RZ All Scores & RZ TDs Only %age). UCD prevails statistically’ only in 3rd Down Conversion %age 41.35% to 38.55%! Winner: South Dakota State!

The #4 Seed, Sacramento State awaits the Winner in Round 2

UT Martin 9-2 (Ohio Valley Conference / OVC) @ Missouri State (Missouri Valley Football Conference / MVFC) TV: ESPN+ / 3:00; Sully’s College Football Page (SCFP) Game Simulator Says: Missouri State wins this Game, out-performing UT Martin in six (6) of the eight (8) categories assessed (Total Yards, Passing, Scoring, Turnovers, 3rd Down Conversion %age, & RZ All Scores %age). Tennessee Martin prevails statistically’ only in the Rushing Category, 181 to 142.5 yards & in RZ TDs Only %age, 72.5% to 52.5%! Winner: Missouri State!

The #8 Seed, Montana State awaits the Winner in Round 2

Northern Iowa 6-5 (Missouri Valley Football Conference / MVFC) @ Eastern Washington (Big SKY / B-SKY) TV: ESPN+ / 3:00; Sully’s College Football Page (SCFP) Game Simulator Says: Eastern Washington wins this Game, out-performing UT Martin in seven (7) of the eight (8) categories assessed (Total Yards, Passing, Scoring, Turnovers, 3rd Down Conversion %age, RZ All Scores %age, & RZ TDs Only). UNI prevails statistically’ only in Running the ball, 153 to 125 yards! Winner: Eastern Washington!

The #6 Seed, Montana awaits the Winner in Round 2

Southern Illinois 7-4 (Missouri Valley Football Conference / MVFC) @ South Dakota 7-4: (Missouri Valley Football Conference / MVFC) TV: ESPN+ / 5:00; Sully’s College Football Page (SCFP) Game Simulator Says: South Dakota wins this Game, out-performing SIU in six (6) of the eight (8) categories assessed; (Passing, Scoring (Tie 27.5 to 27.5), Turnovers, 3rd Down Conversion %age, RZ All Scores %age, & RZ TDs Only). The Salukis statistically’ prevail in Total Yardage, 381.5 to 369 yards & in Passing Yardage 241 to 197.5! As mentioned, the teams, Cayotes & Salukis, tied in the Scoring Assessment Category @ 27.5! Winner: South Dakota!

The #2 Seed, North Dakota State awaits the Winner in Round 2

Florida A&M 9-2 (Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference / MEAC) @ Southeastern Louisiana / 8-3: (Southland Conference / SLC) TV: ESPN+ / 6:00; Sully’s College Football Page (SCFP) Game Simulator Says: SE Louisiana Lions wins this Game, out-performing SIU in five (5) of the eight (8) categories assessed; (Total Offense, Passing, Scoring, RZ All Scores %age, & RZ TDs Only). While the Rattlers statistically’ out-perform the Lions in Rushing Yardage, 151.5 to 129.5 yards & in Turnovers, 1.545 to 1.775. The teams tied in 3rd Down Conversion %age @ 41.4! Winner: SE Louisiana!

The #3 Seed, James Madison awaits the Winner in Round 2

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Group of Five (G5) Top 20

Updated 11/17/21 (Results from Week 11)

The Top 20 has not been update to reflect the new rankings as we enter Week 12! Last week’s results will be incorporated into the new rankings that will be published later today! Listed below are last week’s ratings and how the teams did in those respective rankings & games!

  1. Cincinnati 10-0: Beat USF, 45-28; Up Next: SMU 8-2
  2. UTSA 10-0: Beat S. Miss, 27-17; Up Next: UAB 7-3
  3. Houston 9-1: Beat Temple, 38-7; Up Next: Memphis 5-5
  4. Louisiana 9-1: Beat Troy, 35-21; Up Next: @ Liberty 7-3
  5. SD State 9-1: Beat Nevada, 23-21; Up Next: @ UNLV 2-8
  6. SMU 8-2: Beat UCF, 55-28; Up Next: @ Cincy 10-0
  7. App St 8-2: Beat USA, 31-7; Up Next: @ Troy 5-5
  8. C. Carolina 8-2: Lost GA St, 42-40; Up Next: TX St 3-7
  9. Utah State 8-2: SJ St, 48-17 ; Up Next: Wyoming 5-5
  10. AF 7-3: Beat Colorado St, 35-21; Up Next: @ Nevada 7-3
  11. Fresno St 8-3: Beat New MX, 34-7; Up Next: BYE Week
  12. Liberty 7-3: BYE Week; Up Next: Louisiana 9-1
  13. UAB 7-3: Beat Marshall, 21-14; Up Next: @ UTSA 10-0
  14. N. IL 7-3: Beat Ball St, 30-29; Up Next: Buffalo 4-6
  15. Nevada 7-3: Lost to SD St, 23-21; Up Next: AF 7-3
  16. Army 6-3: Beat Bucknell, 63-10; Up Next: U-Mass 1-9
  17. UCF 6-4: Lost to SMU, 55-28; Up Next: U-Conn 1-9
  18. ECU 6-4: Beat Memphis, 30-29; Up Next: @ Navy 2-7
  19. W Kentucky 6-4: Beat Rice, 42-21; Up Next: FAU 5-5
  20. Boise St 6-4: Beat Wyoming, 23-13; UP Next: N MX 3-7
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Sully’s College Football Page Top 25 (Power Five Only)

  1. Georgia 10-0: Beat Tenn., 41-17; Up Next: Char Southern 4-5
  2. Alabama 9-1: Beat NM State, 59-3; Up Next: Arkansas 7-3
  3. Oregon 9-1: Beat Wash State, 38-24; Up Next: @ Utah 7-3
  4. Ohio St 9-1: Beat Purdue, 59-31; Up Next: MSU 9-1
  5. Michigan St 9-1: Beat Maryland, 40-21 Up Next: @ OSU 9-1
  6. Michigan 9-1: Beat PSU, 21-17; Up Next: @ Maryland 5-5
  7. Notre Dame 9-1: Beat UVA, 28-3; Up Next: GT 3-7
  8. Oklahoma St 9-1: Beat TCU, 63-17; Up Next: @ T-Tech 6-4
  9. Ole Miss 8-2: Beat TX A&M, 29-19, Up Next: Vandy 2-8
  10. Baylor 8-2: Beat OU, 27-14; Up Next: Kansas St 7-3
  11. Oklahoma 9-1: Lost to Baylor, 27-14; Up Next: ISU 6-4
  12. Wake Forest 9-1: Beat NC St, 45-42; Up Next: @ Clemson 7-3
  13. TX A&M 7-3: Lost to Ole Miss, 29-19; Up Next: PV A&M 7-2
  14. Wisconsin 7-3: Beat NW, 35-7; Up Next: Nebraska 3-7
  15. Iowa 8-2: Beat Minnesota, 27-22; Up Next: Illinois 4-6
  16. BYU 8-2: BYE Week; Up Next: @ Georgia Southern 3-7
  17. Pitt 8-2: Beat UNC, 30-23 OT Up Next: UVA 6-4
  18. Arkansas 7-3: beat LSU, 16-13; Up Next: @ Bama 9-1
  19. Utah 7-3: Beat Arizona, 38-29; Up Next: Oregon 9-1
  20. Clemson 7-3: Beat U-Conn, 44-7; Up Next: WF 9-1
  21. NC State 7-3: Lost to WF, 45-42; Up Next: Syracuse 5-5
  22. Kentucky 7-3: Beat Vandy, 34-17; Up Next: NM St 1-9
  23. Kansas St 7-3: Beat WV, 34-17; Up Next: @ Baylor 8-2
  24. Arizona State 7-3: Beat Wash., 35-30; Up Next: @ OR State 6-4
  25. Miss St 6-4: Beat Auburn, 43-34; Up Next: Tenn. St. 5-5
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CFP: Who is in the Committee’s Top 25; yet out of the playoff!

This Top 25 ranking is really window dressing!

Does anyone believe that a three (3) loss team like Wisconsin or Mississippi State have even a remote chance of getting an invite? Bucky Badger can still win the the West Division (without help), beat who shows from the East Division in the B-10 Championship Game, and still not have a snowballs’ chance in Hades of getting into the playoff with three losses!

For Mississippi State to win the West Division, they would need Bama to lose their remaining 3 games, finish with 4 losses and a host of other things to occur, … not happening! Even if Mississippi State got to the SEC Championship and won!!!; it would not change the fact that a three lost is not going to the “Small Dance”!

So we can eliminate Wisconsin & Mississippi State from the mix, we now have a Top 23 not a Top 25!

In the history of the CFP, a team with 2 losses has ever been offered a seat at the Playoff Table! Going into Week Ten, we have 6 undefeated teams (Georgia, Michigan State, Oklahoma, Wake Forest, Cincinnati, and an unranked, UTSA) and eight (8), one (1) loss teams (Alabama, Oregon, Ohio State, Michigan, Notre Dame, Oklahoma State, Baylor, & San Diego State). The math is clear that 4 (@ a minimum) of the 14 remaining teams will finish undefeated or with one loss!

Giving that a team with 2 losses has never been welcomed to the playoffs, we can eliminate those 10 teams burdened with two (2) losses! This number includes the following teams: Pitt, Fresno State, Iowa, Minnesota, NC State, Kentucky, Ole Miss, BYU, Texas A&M, & Auburn!

The twist here with the 2 loss teams, is clearly, Auburn! The Tigers can win the SEC West, without any help, just win baby! Auburn’s only loss in the SEC is a cross divisional game, with Georgia, 34-10!

They have beaten Ole Miss, 31-20, LSU, 24-19, & Arkansas, 38-23, their remaining games are @ Texas A&M, Mississippi State, @ South Carolina, & Alabama. This Saturday’s game at College Station, (Auburn has played there four (4) times since A&M has been in the SEC and won all four) could have far reaching consequences to the history of the CFP! If Auburn were to win out, they will have beaten, Texas A&M, Alabama & Georgia in a 5 week period, won the SEC, and have the best resume in college football heading into the post season! So could Auburn be the 1st, two (2) loss team to make the cut?

That aside, it is more likely that all 10 teams, with 2 losses, are out of the CFP!

Our Top 25 is now a Top 13! There are currently eight (8) teams with one blemish, so let’s start with the lowest ranked, one (1) loss team, #24 San Diego State! The Aztecs lost for the 1st time last week to Fresno State, 30-20. That said, they have taken down 2 Power 5 teams, Arizona, 38-14 & Utah, 33-31 in 3 OT’s. Yet, close wins over San Jose State, 19-13 & Air Force, 20-14 leave their resume lacking and simply do not have the juice for a CFP berth!

#12 Baylor’s (7-1) only loss is to another one (1) loss team, Oklahoma State, 24-14. Their best win is against #15 BYU, 38-24 and do host Oklahoma on Nov. 13th. A win over OU would be big , however, not enough, without major Chaos breaking out above them! The Bears, if not out, are on life support!

#11 Oklahoma State (7-1) lost to Iowa State, 24-21, on Oct. 23 in Ames, Iowa! The Cowboys best win is/was against Baylor, 24-14 and they do play OU on the last Saturday of the season. If they were to beat OU on Nov. 27 and then beat them again, in the B-12 Championship Game, they would go from critical to serious in medical jargon, yet, in no way would they control their own fate in reaching the CFP!

#10 Notre Dame (7-1) as much as the Irish are helping Cincinnati, the Bearcats, are hurting Notre Dame, to a much greater extent. Cincy beat ND, 24-13, on Oct. 2nd and for all intent and purpose, eliminated the Irish from the CFP. “Get Smart” kind of KAOS (chaos) would be required for ND to reach its 3rd CFP in 4 years. That said, they can win 12 games this season, if they do so, then 2021 may very well be Coach Kelly & his staff’s best coaching job in that time frame (2018/2021)!

#7 Michigan (7-1) is the first one (1) loss team that has a very real chance to reach the CFP! The Wolverines best win, in 2021, is against Wisconsin, 38-17, the Badgers are playing for a the West Division championship, which they will get if they win out and a spot in Indy for the B-10 Championship! UM closes out the season vs 3 teams that have winning records, @ Penn State, Maryland, & Ohio State (minus IU, 2-6, who they play on Saturday). If the Wolves win out, they will be the champions of the B-10 (the 2nd best conference in 2021 behind only the SEC) with a record of 12-1! I think their in, if win out!

#5 Ohio State (7-1) if the Bucks were to win out, they would still have one major problem, Oregon! The Ducks beat the Bucks, 35-28, @ the Horse Shoe, on Sept. 11th, & did so without their best player, Kayvon Thibodeaux. OSU best win in 2021 is against PSU, 33-24, on Oct. 30th! The Buckeyes’ schedule will help them, they play Michigan State (currently 8-0) on Nov. 20 & travel to Michigan & the Big House to take on the 7-1 Wolverines! This will be an interesting scenario; if Michigan were to win out, in my opinion, they would be in a stronger position than Ohio State, to make the CFP! In that, like Oregon, they would have beaten the Bucks and the B-10 is better league than the PAC 12!

#3 Oregon’s (7-1) best win has put then in a similar situation to Cincinnati’s win over ND. They traveled across the country, took on one of the college football top rosters (4th to exact) and got it done! If the Ducks & Bucks finish with an identical 12-1 record, how significant will the head to head be for the committee? If I were an Oregon fan, I would cheer for OSU, to beat an unbeaten MSU and a once beaten Michigan. All things being relatively equal, head to head has to matter or why play the games? Given the power of the B-10, if MSU or Michigan wins the conference championship and it comes down to one of those teams or the Ducks, in my opinion, Oregon is gone! If it is OSU, as strange as it may sound, that gives Oregon their best shot!

#2 Alabama, this is where the fun really begins and chaos will reign supreme, if the Tide wins the SEC! It is a foregone conclusion that the SEC champ is in the CFP! So can/could you really keep Georgia, who is widely regarded as, far and away, college football’s best team … out of the playoff? I think not! Alabama wins out … chaos, if UGA wins … Bama is a gone Gosling!

Tomorrow, we will take a look at the undefeated teams!

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College Football Rankings Week 9 (11/2/21)

25. Pitt 6-2 / ACC: Lost to Miami, 38-34; Up Next: @ Duke 3-5

24. San Diego State 7-1 / MWC: Lost to Fresno State, 30-20; Up Next: @ Hawaii 5-4

23. Fresno State 7-2 / MWC: Beat San Diego St, 30-20; Up Next: Boise St 4-4

22. Iowa 6-2 / B-10: Lost to Wisconsin, 27-7: Up Next: @ Northwestern 3-5

21 Wisconsin 5-3 / B-10: Beat Iowa, 27-7; Up Next: @ Rutgers 4-4

20. Minnesota 6-2 / B-10: Beat Northwestern, 41-14; Up Next: Illinois 3-6

19. NC State 6-2 / ACC: Beat Louisville, 28-13; Up Next: @ Florida State 3-5

18. Kentucky 6-2 / SEC: Lost to Mississippi St, 31-17; Up Next: Tennessee 4-4

17. Mississippi St 5-3 / SEC: Beat Kentucky, 31-17; Up Next: @ Arkansas 5-3

16. Ole Miss 6-2 / SEC: Lost to Auburn, 31-20; Up Next: Liberty 7-2

15. BYU 7-2 / Independent: Beat Virginia, 66-49; Up Next: Idaho State 1-7

14. Texas A&M 6-2 / SEC: BYE Week; Up Next: Auburn 6-2

13. Auburn 6-2 / SEC: Beat Ole Miss, 31-20; Up Next: @ Texas A&M 6-2

12. Baylor 7-1 / B-12: Beat Texas, 31-24; Up Next: @ TCU 3-5

11. Oklahoma St 7-1 / B-12: Beat Kansas, 55-3; Up Next: @ West Virginia 4-4

10. Notre Dame 7-1 / Independent: Beat UNC, 44-34; Up Next: Navy 2-6

9. Wake Forest 8-0 / ACC: Beat Duke 45-7; Up Next: @ UNC 4-4

8. Oklahoma 9-0 / B-12: Beat Texas Tech 52-21; Up Next: BYE Week

7. Michigan 7-1 / B-10: Lost to MSU, 37-33; Up Next: Indiana 2-6

6. Cincinnati 8-0 / AAC: Beat Tulane, 31-12; Up Next: Tulsa 3-5

5. Ohio State 7-1 / B-10: Beat Penn St, 33-24; Up Next: @ Nebraska 3-6

4. Oregon 7-1 / PAC 12: Beat Colorado, 52-29; Up Next: @ Washington 4-4

3. Michigan State 8-0 / B-10: Beat Michigan, 37-33; Up Next: @ Purdue 5-3

2. Alabama 7-1 / SEC: BYE Week; Up Next: LSU 4-4

1 Georgia 8-0 / SEC: Beat Florida, 34-7; Up Next: Missouri 4-4

Some facts about week one’s selections

  • The SEC has 7 Teams in the 1st ranking, including the #1 & #2 ranked teams (UGA & Bama)
  • The B-10 has the 2nd most ranked teams, 6, and the B-10 also has 2 teams in the top 6 (#3 Spartans & #5 Bucks)
  • The SEC & B-10 have over half the field (13 of 25)!
  • The ACC has 3 teams, the B-12 has 3, & PAC 12 has 1 team
  • The Group of 5 has 3 teams, Cincinnati from the American Athletic and Fresno State & San Diego State from the Mountain West!
  • The Independents have placed 2 in the initial CFP rankings; ND & BYU!
  • Five (5) of the top (8) teams have to play another team in the top 8!
  • 1) Ohio State has to play MSU & Michigan, 2) UGA will likely meet Bama in the SEC Championship, although Auburn may have a say in who gets to that game vs Georgia (the Dawgs Have already won the East Division of the SEC) if they beat A&M Saturday, 3) Michigan hosts Ohio State & Michigan State travels to Columbus to take on the Buckeyes!
  • Oregon & Cincinnati do not play a ranked team for the remainder of the season! This will more than likely hurt them via strength of schedule!
  • OU is in a much better spot then their #8 ranking indicates, since many of the teams in front of them play one another and the Sooner schedule (#11 Baylor & #12 Oklahoma State) will help them, if they win out!! They can/could/will jump an undefeated Cincy or even a one loss Oregon!

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