Sully's Big Blog! Commentary on College Football, Weekly Games, And Strange Statistics!

C-USA 2021 Schedule

Here is the 2021 schedule for C-USA. The league has 14 teams, divided into 2 divisions with 7 teams aside.

The East: Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, Old Dominion, UNC Charlotte, & Western Kentucky.

The West consists of: Louisiana Tech, North Texas, Rice, Southern Miss, Texas San Antonio, UAB, & UTEP!

C-USA, which is a member of the Group of 5 (G5), plays 8 conference games and 4 Non-Conference. They will line it up 112 times for conference tilts and 56 NC battles.

USA will take on a Power 5 opponent 16 times in 2021 or 29% of their NC schedule (ACC: 4 Games; B-10: 4; B-12: 2; PAC-12: DNP; & SEC: 6!

They will play 26 G5 teams or 46% of their NC schedule will be played against other Group of 5 opponents. C-USA will line it up vs the AAC: 7 Games; MAC: 2; MWC: 4; SBC: 6; & IND: 7!

Finally, the league will play 14 teams from the Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) or teams that may award up 63 scholarships, not more that the 63, but can award fewer.

The FBS (Football Bowl Subdivision) must provide 85 scholarships in football to maintain their status as members of this subdivision. Each team in Conference USA is playing 1 FCS opponent.

It should be noted, that for an FBS team to become bowl eligible, they must win 6 games. One of the 6 wins can be against an FCS team, but only one. If a FBS team were to schedule 2 FCS opponents, it would know in advance that only one of those potential wins would count toward the 6 wins needed to qualify for a bowl!

The web site below will take you to Sully’s College Football Page’s C-USA schedule for the 2021 season. For your convenience, we color code conferences/teams; Conference Games (Red Dot), Non-Conference Games as follows, Power 5 (Yellow Dot) Group of 5 (Green Dot), & FCS opponent (Blue Dot)!

http://sullyscollegefootballpage.com/Football_Stats/Conference_Listings.cfm?MCID=2&DVID=8&ScheduleYear=2021

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SEC Releases 2021 Schedule: League & Non-Conference

The SEC is divided into 2 divisions, each side of the conference has seven teams. The East has Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, & Vanderbilt. While the West has Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Texas A&M. The West is and has been for the better part of a decade considered to be the stronger division, winning 11 of the last 12 championship games (Georgia’s win over Auburn, 28-7, in 2017, the lone exception)!

The SEC (ACC, as well) plays 8 conference games, the B-12, PAC 12, & the B-10 play 9 conference Games. The SEC, as mentioned, has 14 members and plays 112 conference tilts; this compared to the B-10, who also has 14 teams, yet plays 14 more conference games, 126 to 112! This is do to the respective conferences electing to play 8 (SEC) to 9 (B-10) conference games! As a result, 13 of the SEC teams line it up against 9 (including their 8 Conf. games) Power 5 (P5) teams in 2021, only UGA (Georgia: vs Clemson & G-Tech) plays 10 P-5’s! While the B-10 has 12 teams play 10 games (9 Conf. 1 NC P5 game) against P5 opponents (Indiana plays 9, while Purdue plays 11 Power 5 teams in 2021 / Oregon State & Notre Dame). Remember, the SEC & B-10 are P5 Conferences and therefore, their league games count as P5 games!

The SEC has a 56 game non-Conference (NC) schedule. On Sully’s College Football Page, we look at NC opponents three ways, Power 5, Group of 5 (G5) and Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) and then color code these respective categories. Red signifies a conference opponent, Yellow, P5, Green, G5, and Blue, FCS. This allows the reader to get a sense (strength) of the NC schedule with a simple glance If you see a yellow dot (UGA & Purdue) who are playing 2 P5 opponents in 2021, no other member of their respective conferences is taking on 2 Power 5 teams! So at 1st glance, the Dawgs & Boilers are playing the toughest schedules in their respective leagues! That said, further consideration is needed, yet @ a glance… It should be noted that on SCFP, we count ND & BYU as part of the Power 5!

The SEC is kicking it off against 15 P5 in the coming season! This means that 27% of their NC schedule (15/56) is against the ACC (10 games), B-12 (1) , B-10 (1), or PAC-12 (3).

The have scheduled 27 teams from the G5 ranks, American Athletic Conference (AAC 3 games), Conference-USA (C-USA 6), Mid-American Conference (MAC 5), Mountain West Conference (MWC 2), Sun Belt Conference (SBC 7) & Independents (IND’s 4). On SCFP we include 5 teams as G5 independents (Army , Liberty, New Mexico State, U-Conn, & U-Mass). The SEC vs G5’s accounts for 48% of their NC schedule.

Finally, the FCS (these programs can offer up to 63 scholarships, not more than 63, but they can offer fewer and keep their FCS status) make up 25% (14/56) of the NC Southeastern Conferences Schedule.

The SEC recruits better, wins more championships, and places more players in the NFL than any other conference in the collegiate ranks. People who argue against the SEC as being the NCAA’s, Division One’s best, are simply swimming against a mighty current! They are the best! And then, and only then, let the debate begin as to which conference is 2nd best?

The B-10 & SEC complete schedules are now available on SCFP. The link below will take you to our SEC page!

http://sullyscollegefootballpage.com/Football_Stats/Conference_Listings.cfm?MCID=1&DVID=6

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How to Calculate QB Rating in both the NCAA & the NFL

I don’t Know about you, but I think the best word in any human language is ‘Unknown’! I spent 46 years in education, the last 20 or so as an administrator and I wish I had a nickel for every time I answered a teacher or student question with, ‘I don’t know, let’s find out’! If I had that, ‘them nickels’, I would own 2/3’s of Wisconsin!

So with that in mind, one of the things I knew and then forgot about (forgetting is a lot like not knowing) was how QB ratings are determined in the college game, and then, how it differs (if it differs) from how it is determined at in the NFL? So I sat down today, after I got back from a visit with the grand kids, and now, it is no longer an unknown!

First let’s do college, after all this is a college football site! The NFL can get a number and get in line!

There are 7 steps to determine a QB rating via the NCAA formula:

  1. The QB’s passing yards X 8.3
  2. The number of TD’s the QB has thrown X 330
  3. The Quarterback’s completions x 100
  4. You now add A, B, & C to get a total!
  5. Now factor in the INT’s the QB has thrown and X them by 200
  6. You now subtract the INT total from your first total (steps 1, 2, & 3)!
  7. You now divide the #6’s total, by the number of QB attempts (passes thrown)

Let’s take a few QB numbers and will do a walk through!

Alabama’s Mac Jones had the highest QB rating of any QB for the 2020 season. So here’s Mac!

  1. Mac passed for 4500 yards, so we times it by 8.4 and our 1st number is 37,800.
  2. Jones hit on 41 TD’s in 2020, we times the 41 by 330 and we now have our 2nd number, 13,530.
  3. He hit his target (completions) 311 times, which we times by 100 and we arrive at our 3rd number, 31,100
  4. We now add the three sub-totals together to get our first total, 82,430
  5. Mac threw 4 INT’s which we times by 200 and get a second total of 800
  6. we now subtract the 800 from our 1st total of, 82,430 and we have our final number, 81,630!
  7. We now divide 81,630 by the number of attempts (passes thrown) Mac had in 2020, 402 attempts. Jones’ QB Rating was 203.06!

If you go to the web site listed below you will find Mac at the top of the page, listed at 203.06.

https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/individual/8

Let’s do another high profile QB this season, Ohio State’s, Justin Fields!

  1. Fields passes for 2100 yards, so we times it by 8.4 and our 1st # is 17,640.
  2. Justin threw for 22 TD’s in 2020, so we times 22 by 330 and we get a second number, 7,260.
  3. He completed 158 passes which we multiply by 100 in our formula and we arrives at our 3rd number, 15,800.
  4. We now add our sub-totals and we get our 1st composite total of 40,700.
  5. Next we identify the number of INT Fields threw in the year of the Covid; he hit the wrong color jersey 6 times. Six picks times 200, equals 1200.
  6. We now subtract 1200 from our 1st total of 40,700 and we end up with 39,500.
  7. Finally, we divide 39,700 by the number of passes Justin threw in 2020, 225 / into 39,500 . Fields QBR was 175.56 / 10th best in the country!

Finally, since Sully’s College Football Page (SCFP) is located in Wisconsin, let’s take a peek at our own QB, Graham Mertz.

  1. Graham passed for 1,238 yards and as before, we times the number by 8.4, which equates to 10,399.2.
  2. Mertz threw 9 TD’s, which we times by 330 to get a total of 2,970.
  3. He completed 118 passes and in our formula, we multiply the 118 by 100 and get our 3rd sub-total of 11,800.
  4. The 3 sub-totals equal a composite score of 25,169.2
  5. Graham threw 5 INT’s, times 200 and we end up at 1,000.
  6. We now subtract 1000 from 25,169.2 and our final total is 24,169.2
  7. Mertz passed the ball 193 times in 2020, which we divide into 24,169.2 and we arrive at Mertz’s QBR of 125.23 or 79th best in the nation!

The NFL system seems much more involved, at least to a Mental Math Midget like myself!

  1. The NFL takes a QB’s completions and divides them by his attempts (passes thrown), it then subtracts from that number by 0.3, and then times the quotient by 5. This gives you your 1st number.
  2. In their 2nd step , they divide a QB total passing yards by, again, their attempts. They now subtract 3 from the passing yards/by attempts from the quotient, and then times that number by 0.25.
  3. In step three, they divide the QB’s TD passes by his total attempts and then times that number by 20.
  4. You take 2.375 and hold on to it, while you complete the what is in the brackets 1st. U divide INT’s by attempts, times that number by 25, and then subtract the 2.375!
  5. You take the 4 sub-totals listed above, add them together, divide the total by 6 and then times that number by 100. You now have your QB rating

Ok, let’s do a NFL QB to see if I can unconfused you! How about we do GB’s Aaron Rogers .

  1. Rogers completed 372 passes / attempted 526 = 0.707, we now subtract 0.3 which leaves us with 0.407. Now we times the 0.407 number by 5 and we have our 1st number, 2.036
  2. Aaron passed for 4299 yards in 2020, so we divide that number by his attempts, 526, and we get 8.17 YPA. We now subtract 3 and we are left with 5.17 which we now multiply by 0.25 and we get our 2nd number of 1.29.
  3. In the NFL’s 3rd step, we divide TD’s by, again, attempts. Rogers threw 48 Touchdowns which we divide by his attempts of 526, this leaves us with 0.091. Now we multiply the 0.091 by 20 and we get a response of 1.825
  4. In our fourth phase, we take a look at INT’s and find that Rodgers threw 5 picks in 2020, again we divide by attempts, 526 and we arrive at 0.0095. In the NFL’s Formula, you now multiply this number (0.0095) by 25 and get 0.237, which we subtract 2.375 and get our fourth number of 2.138
  5. We now add our 4 totals together, 2.036, 1.293, 1.825, & 2.138 = 7.292. We then divide by 6 which = 1.21 & X by 100 = our QB rating for Rodgers of 121.5

In the likelihood , you doubt my findings (I did as well) here is a site that shows you Rodgers QBR.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/player/aaron-rodgers

I was asked about this yesterday and while I used to do this back in 2009 & 2010, I really had little to nothing to offer how the NCAA / NFL Formulas worked and or how they were different Not anymore!

Enjoy the NFL Games, should be great one’s on Saturday & Sunday!

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Who Wins the 2020 College Football Playoff: A 12-0 Alabama or A 7-0 Ohio State!

This is the 7th version of the CFP! Alabama has won 2, Clemson 2, LSU 1, & OSU won the 1st one, in 2014! If the Buckeyes win tonight, 3 teams will have won 2 of the 7 championships. A good balance until you consider that 130 teams have had 780 chances to win the CFP Championship!

So here we go; Brutus vs Big AL

On offense the Bucks have the 4th best Total Offense in the country @ 544.9 YPG! The Tide rolls into the game as the 6th best Total Offense @ 535 YPG! Bama will counter OSU high powered Offense with 32nd ranked Total Defense allowing 353.2, while the Bucks D is ranked 41st nationally giving up 370..3 YPG! Advantage: Alabama!

Scoring: Alabama is the nations 2nd highest scoring team, putting up 48.2 PPG to Ohio’s, 5th rated scoring machine, @ 43.3 PPG. Factoring in Scoring Defense, Bama D’s (13th Nationally) allows 19.0 PPG to Ohio State’s surrendering 22.0 PPG or the country’s 31st best! Advantage: Alabama!

3rd Down conversions, Alabama leads the nation @ 59.3% (80/135), a truly amazing percentage. That said OSU is the 6th best converter in the country @ 50%. Both of these teams can score from anywhere on the field, coupled with how difficult it is to get them off the field. This game looks to be high scoring affair! Ohio is the 25th best defense on stopping its opponent on 3rd down. Bama is 76th in the country in the country getting their opponents off the field. A potential issue for the Tide! Advantage: Ohio State!

In the Red Zone Alabama is the 9th rated and scores (TD/FG) 91.1% of the time they penetrate the opponents RZ! OSU is ranked 100/130 most likely to score in their opponents RZ @ 76.9%, A shocking number when one considers the weapons they have on offense! In defending the RZ, Bama is ranked as the nations 15th best (34 penetrations, 25 scores, 17 TD to 8 FG) RZ Defense allowing scores 74% of the time. While OSU comes into the game as the country 54th best in defending the RZ (23 penetrations 19 scores, 15 TD to 4 FG) OSU allows scores 83% of the time. Advantage: Alabama!

Passing : The Tide is raked as college football’s 5th best passing team @ 349.3 YPG, while OSU rolls in rated as the 31st best passing squad in America, at 272.3 YPG! On defensing the pass, Bama is the nation’s 79 best allowing 245.3 YPG, while the Bucks have struggled defending the pass, ranked at 116th allowing 281.1 YPG! This is a huge concern for Buckeye defense, given the strength of the Bama air attack! Advantage: Alabama

Rushing the ball, this is where OSU has to play well, the Bucks have the 5th best rushing attack in the country, pounding the ball for 272 YPG! Bama is the 46th best rushing team in the nation! The Tide is averaging 185.7 YPG and yet they have one of the top running backs in the country! Ohio State has the nations 2nd best run defense, giving up a meager 89.1 YPG. Alabama has the 13th best run D in all of college football! They are allowing 110.2 YPG. The run game is where OSU must dominate, not on defense but on offense> To have a real shot in this game they must keep Bama’s high powered offense on the sideline while they run the field & the clock! Advantage: Ohio State

Sully Says: Alabama wins and covers the 9 points!

And as Always Enjoy the Game!

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Alabama vs Ohio State in terms of ‘Star Power’

Big Al (Alabama) & Brutus (Ohio State) AP All American selections for 2020

First Team Offense

Bama: 1) QB, Mac Jones; 2) RB, Najee Harris: 3) Tackle, Alex Leatherwood, 4) Center, Landon Dickerson (out); 5) WR, DeVonta Smith.

OSU: 1) Guard, Wyatt Davis

First Team Defense

Bama: 1) CB, Patrick Surtain.

OSU: 1) CB, Shawn Wade.

2nd Team Offense

Bama: No 2nd team selections on Off.

OSU: 1) Tackle, Haskell Garrett

3rd Team Offense

Bama: No 3rd team selections on Off.

OSU: No 3rd team selections on Off.

3rd Team Defense

Bama: 1) Tackle, Christian Barmore; 2) LB, Dylan Moses

OSU: No 3rd team selections on Def.

Total All American Selections

Big AL: 8 players on the 3 All American Teams

Brutus: 3 Players selected on the 3 All American Teams!

1st Team SEC All Conference Players

Alabama placed 6 players on the 1st Team offense: OL, Alex Leatherwood, Deonte Brown, & Landon Dickerson, WR, DeVonta Smith; QB, Mac Jones; RB, Najee Harris.

Alabama placed 3 players on the 1st Team Defense: DL, Christian Barmore; LB, Dylan Moses; DB, Patrick Surtain.

1st Team Big Ten All Conference Players

Ohio State placed 6 players on 1st Team Offense: QB, Justin Fields; WR, Chris Olave & Garrett Wilson; OL, Josh Meyers, Wyatt Davis, & Thayer Munford.

Ohio State Placed 2 players on 1st Team Defense: LB, Pete Werner & DB, Shawn Wade.

College Football Award winners for 2020

Heisman Trophy (Best player in College Football) DeVonte Smith (Bama)

Maxwell Award (Player of the Year) DeVonte Smith (Bama)

Walter Camp Award (Player of the Year) DeVonte Smith (Bama)

Davey O’Brian Award (Best QB) Mac Jones (Bama)

Rimington Award (Best Center) Landon Dickerson (Bama)

Doak Walker Award (Best RB) Najee Harris (Bama)

Biletnikoff Award (Best Receiver) DeVonte Smith (Bama)

Outland Trophy (Best Interior Linemen) Alex Leatherwood (Bama)

Broyles Award (Best Assistant Coach) Steve Sarkisian (Bama)

As good as OSU individuals are and they clearly have great players, Alabama has a large edge in Star Power! Ohio State’s Fields, Sermon, Olave & the defense are going to have to play the best game of their lives to stay in this high scoring affair!

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Bucks & Tide are ready rumble in Miami Gardens

At the start of the 2020 football season, the B-10 (August 11), P-12, MAC (Mid-American Conference), & MWC (Mountain West Conference) all announced they were opting of the 2020 college football season. The conferences subsequently reversed their decision and the 2020 season was back in play … well, kind of back!

The ACC (11 games) & SEC (10 games), the ACC scheduled 10 conference games & 1 non conference while the SEC scheduled 10 conference (only) games! The B-12 scheduled 10 games, 9 conference & 1 non-conference game.

It should be noted, although rarely spoken of, that the Sun Bent Conference (SBC) had spring practice, they held them in February and early March (South Alabama being an exception). The B-12 lost all three games it played vs the SBC in their season openers, while beating American, C-USA, & FCS opponents by lop-sided margins, with the exception of the Oklahoma State Tulsa game, 16-7, hard fought Cowboy win!

The B-12’s image did not recover from these loses in 2020, yet, I would suggest that these loses occurred earlier in the year. The SBC had a great year in 2020, Coastal Carolina 11-1, Louisiana 10-1, Appalachian State 9-3, & Georgia Southern 8-5 and I would not underestimate the advantages of having spring practice! Just a thought in explaining the B-12’s woes in week one!

The B-10 scheduled 8 games and a 9th game on a TBD basis (all conference games), while the P-12 scheduled 6 games, all within their league. The P-12 struggled to get its teams’ on the field, Cal, Arizona State, Washington & Washington State were able to play only 4 games. In fact, Washington who won the North Division was unable to play in the championship game, do to a Covid-19 outbreak!

Just a review of the struggles that all of college football & these two finalists had to battle in 2020, their journey has been like no other in recent times!

So entering the season, what was the thinking about Ohio State & Alabama? I always begin the college football season with Phil Steele’s Preview, as his publication is more like a media guide than a onetime read! Here is what Steele had to say about these teams in June.

Quarterback:

Steele thought that Mac Jones would win the job, but that Jones would be pushed by in-coming freshmen / all everything, Bryce Young & red shirt freshmen, Paul Tyson. Steele rated Bama QB position as the 44th best in the country. Pretty sure Phil threw away his crystal ball on this one.

OSU was another matter, Justin Fields was rated (2nd) behind only Clemson’s, generational QB, Trevor Lawrence. As he entered the 2020 season, Field’s was responsible for 51 TD’s (passing 41/running 10) and threw only 3 picks in 2019! His projected backup was, Kentucky transfer, Gunnar Hoek & 2 true freshmen, jack Miller & CJ Stoud.

Running Back:

Steele ranked Alabama as having the 2nd best staple of running backs in the country, led by, I can either “knock you out”, jump over you, or ‘run away from you’, Najee Harris. Harris ran for over 1200 yards and scored 20 TD’s in 2019! Najee was projected to be backed-up by the Robinson’s, Brian (441 rushing yards in 19) & Keilan ( 254 rushing yards with 6.5 YPC).

Ohio State was ranked by Steele as having the 16th best assemblage of running backs. The RB’s at OSU were projected to be led by OU transfer, Trey Sermon, who was injured for most of 2019, after having rushed for 947 yards and 5.9 YPC in 2018! Sermon, it was thought, would be supported by Master Teague (789 yards, 4 TD’s & 5.8 YPC in 2019) & Demario McCall (122 rushing yards, 2 TD’s & 6.8 YPC).

Receivers:

Alabama was projected to have the 3rd best receiving corps, behind LSU (remember, Ja’Marr Chase & Terrence Marshall opted out for 2020), & USC (Amon-Ra Saint Brown, Tyler Vaughn, & Drake London). Bama is led by DeVonta Smith (18.5 YPR), Jaylen Waddle (17.0 YPR), & John Metchie. Waddle when down with an injury (ankle) in the Tennessee game, October 24th! It was announced today (1/11/21) that Waddle has been medically cleared to play!

Ohio State was ranked 16th best receiving corps, by Steele, prior to the start of the 2020 season! Chris Olave (17.3 YPR) & their fastest receiver, Garrett Wilson (14.4 YPR). The stats provided here are from 2019 season (remember, this is a preview)! While the Bucks were viewed as the 16th best at the beginning, they are now clearly a top 5 receiving unit!

O-Line:

Alabama was ranked by Steele’s staff as having the best O-Line in all of college football! Four of the 5 starters are being identified as 1st or 2nd day NFL selections. They are led by LG, Deonte Brown & LT, Alex Leatherwood!

Ohio State was the 4th best o-line, in the preseason rankings, behind only, Bama, OU & ND! RG, Wyatt Davis, a preseason All-American, was projected to lead the way! The Bucks retuned 3 starters!

D-Line:

Ohio State was ranked 7th in the preseason by Phil Steele Staff! This speaks to their depth, as this unit lost the Defensive Player of the Year, Chase Young, in 2019. OSU has 10 players on the D-Line, that were ranked in the 25 of their respective positions / classes!

This is the most experienced D-Line Bama has had in the last 4 years. Bama has 11 players on their D-Line that were identified as very highly touted by Steele’s staff! The Tide’s DE, LaBryan Ray was identified as a pre-season All American!

Linebacker:

Alabama was ranked 2nd, in the pre-season, as the LB position was being ranked nationally. Their unit was bolstered by the return of 2018 1st Team All-SEC, MLB, Dylan Moses & 2018 starter, Christian Harris

Steele ranked Ohio State as the 3rd best LB corps in the nation. The Bucks are led by Tuf Borland & Pete Werner. Both players were recognized as All-Big Ten pre-season selections!

D-Backs:

The Tide was ranked @ the start of 2020 as having the 9th best secondary, in the country, led by, Pre season All-American, CB, Patrick Surtain!

The Buck were recognized as having the 11th best defensive backfield in the nation, led by pre-season, 1st team All-American selection, CB, Shaun Wade!

Special Team(s):

Alabama is ranked as having the 4th best special team(s) in college football! Bama will routinely plays starters on special teams (Smith, Waddle, Moses)!

Ohio State currently has the 4th best roster in all of college football. The Bucks are loaded with talent and the way for their backups get on the field (who would start in most programs) is on special teams. Steele ranked them as the 16th best special team unit for the 2020 season!

Phil Steele’s ‘Best Four’ for 2020 were, Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, & Oklahoma! He correctly identified 3 of the 4 participants in the CFP (swap out OU for ND and he was spot on). His Per-season Top 4 were, 1) OSU, 2) Clemson, 3) Alabama, & 4) Oklahoma!

Tonight, we will see if the Bucks can make happen what Steele predicted last summer!

& as Always, Enjoy the Game!

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Ohio State Takes on Mighty Alabama in the CFP Championship Game

heqad To Head Rsults

SCFP’s Game Simulator breaks down the game into 8 categories; 1) Total Yards, 2) Passing Yards, 3)Rushing Yards, 4) Scoring, 5) Turnovers, 6) 3rd Down Conversions, 7) Red Zone all Scores, & 8) Red Zone TD’s only. The way the Simulator works is it takes Bama’s average total yards per game (535 YPG) & adds it to Ohio State total yards allowed (370 YPG).

This gives you a total of 905 yards. It then divides by 2 and predicts that Bama total yardage vs the Bucks will be 452.5 or -82.5 yards less than their average YPG! The Simulator then reverses the process, it takes the Bucks total offense of 545 YPG and adds it to what the Tide defense surrenders per game, 353 yards and once again divides by 2. The simulator predicts that the Bucks will gain 449 yards against Alabama’s defense, or -96 yards under their average YPG!

Sully’s College Football Page’s (SCFP) Game Simulator predicts that Bama will outgain the Bucks; 452.5 yards to 449, and as a result, the game Simulator gives Alabama the point for total yardage in Monday’s Championship!

It repeats the above format for all 8 categories and the results are as follows!

Please remember, these numbers offered below are not what the teams averaged during the regular season, they are, rather, a projection by SCFP’s Game Simulator, pitting OSU O’s vs Bama’s D & Bama’s O vs Brutus’ D!

1. Total Yardage Alabama 452.5 to Ohio State’s 449; Bama 1-0
2. Passing Yards, the Simulator says Bama 315 to OSU’s 257.5; Bama 2-0
3. Rushing Yards, The Bucks run the ball for 191.5 to the Tide’s 137.5 ; Bama 2-1
4. Scoring O vs D, The head to head projects Bama 35 OSU 31; Bama 3-1
5. Turnovers, Lower number prevails Ohio 1.56 to Alabama’s 1.745; Bama 3-2
6. 3rd Down Conversions: Bama converts 47.2% to the Bucks 45.85%; Bama 4-2
7. Red Zone all Scores (TD & FG) Bama will score 87.5 % to OSU 75.5; Bama 5-2
8. RZ TD’s, Alabama will score a TD 71% in OSU RZ to OSU’s 57%, Bama 6-2

http://sullyscollegefootballpage.com/Football_Stats/Matchup.cfm

The above web address will take you to SCFP’s “Head to Head/ Game Simulator page (you may have to hi-light & right click). Once there, simply click on the drop box and select Alabama & Ohio State and you will be able to see the info provides here and much more!

As stated both teams will gain less than their total average yards per game, in both passing (Bama APY of 349 yards, vs the Bucks, will fall to 315 yards (-34 yards), while OSU’s mean will go from 272 passing yards per game to 257.5 (-14.5 yards) vs Alabama’ D) and rushing yards Bama average per game will fall to 137.5 rushing yards from 186 YPG (-48.5), while the Bucks, 273 run yards will dwindle to 191.5!

The Tide averages 48 points per game to Ohio State’s 43 PPG! The Bama D, SCFP Game Simulator predicts, will knock off 12 points of the OSU’s average, holding the Bucks to 31, while Brutus will cut the Tide’s output by 13 points 48 down to 35!

Ohio State has forced their opponents into 2.57 turnovers a game, while Bama has given the ball up less than 1 time per game (.92) and interesting stat, if the Bucks can pressure Mac Jones, given his lack of mobility, to hurry him or force him to extend and/or escape the pocket?

Alabama is absurd on 3rd down! The Tide converts on 3rd down 59.3% of their attempts. Given the fact, that Bama is a threat to score from anywhere on the field, if you can’t get them off the turf on 3rd down, the Bucks might as well stay on the bus! That said, if Alabama is absurd on 3rd down at 59.3, then OSU behavior on 3rd down can be described, as other worldly, converting at a 50.5% rate. This game is worth watching on 3rd down alone!

Alabama has scored (TD or FG) 92% of the time, when they have entered the RZ and scored TD’s on 77% of those penetrations. Ohio State has scored (FG or TD) 77% of the time they entered into the RZ and got ‘6’ on 64% when crossing into the RZ!

We will talk more tomorrow about Jimmy’s & Joe’s and coaches, X & O’s!
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2020 Bowl Results & Points of Interest

December 21st:

Sun Belt Conference (SBC), Appalachian State 56 vs Conference USA (C-USA), North Texas 28

Running Conference Results: SBC 1-0 / C-USA 0-1

December 22nd:

(1) Independent (IND), BYU 49 vs American Athletic Conference (AAC), Central Florida 23

Running Conference Results: IND 1-0 / AAC 0-1

(2) Mountain West Conference (MWC), Nevada 38 vs AAC Tulane 27

Running Conference Results: MWC 1-0 / AAC 0-2

December 23rd:

(1) SBC, Georgia Southern 38 vs C-USA Louisiana Tech 3

Running Conference Results: SBC 2-0 / C-USA 0-2

(2) AAC, Memphis 25 vs C-USA, Florida Atlantic 10

Running Conference Results: AAC 1-2 / C-USA 0-3

December 24th:

MWC, Hawaii 28 vs AAC, Houston 14

Running Conference Results: MWC 2-0 / AAC 1-3

December 25th:

Mid-American Conference (MAC) Buffalo 17 vs C-USA, Marshall 10

Running Conference Results: MAC 1-0 / C-USA 0-4

December 26th:

(1) IND, Liberty 37 vs SBC, Coastal Carolina 34

Running Conference Results: IND 2-0 / SBC 2-1

(2) SBC, Georgia State 39 vs C-USA, Western Kentucky 21

Running Conference Results: SBC 3-1 / C-USA 0-5

(3) SBC, Louisiana 31 vs C-USA Texas San Antonio 24

Running Conference Results: SBC 4-1 / C-USA 0-6

December 27th & 28th:

No Games!

December 29th:

(1) Big 12 (B-12) OK St., 37 vs Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) Miami 34

Running Conference Results: B-12, 1-0 / ACC, 0-1

(2) B-12 Texas 55 vs PAC-12, Colorado 23

Running Conference Results: B-12, 2-0 / PAC-12, 0-1

December 30th:

(1) Big-10 (B-10), Wisconsin 42 vs ACC, Wake Forest 28

Running Conference Results: B-10, 1-0 / ACC, 0-2

(2) B-12, Oklahoma 55 vs SEC, Florida 20

Running Conference Results: B-12, 3-0 / SEC, 0-1

December 31st:

(1) SEC, Miss St. 28 vs AAC, Tulsa 26

Running Conference Results: SEC, 1-1 / AAC, 1-4

(2) MAC, Ball State 34 vs MWC, San Jose St. 13

Running Conference Results: MAC, 2-0 / MWC, 2-1

(3) B-12, West Virginia 24 vs IND, Army 21

Running Conference Results: B-12, 4-0 / IND, 2-1

January 1st:

(1) B-10, Northwestern 35 vs SEC, Auburn 19

Running Conference Results: B-10, 2-0 / SEC, 1-2

(2) SEC, Georgia 24 vs AAC, Cincinnati 21

Running Conference Results: SEC, 2-2 / AAC, 1-5

(3) SEC, Alabama 31 vs ACC, Notre Dame 14

Running Conference Results: SEC 3-2 / ACC 0-3

(4) B-10, Ohio State 49 vs ACC, Clemson 28

Running Conference Results: B-10, 3-0 / ACC, 0-4

January 2nd

(1) SEC, Kentucky 23 vs ACC, NC State 21

Running Conference Results: SEC, 4-2 / ACC 0-5

(2) SEC, Ole Miss 26 vs B-10, Indiana 20

Running Conference Results: SEC, 5-2 / B-10, 3-1

(3) B-12, Iowa State 34 vs PAC-12, Oregon 17

Running Conference Results: B-12, 5-0 / PAC-12, 0-2

(4) SEC, Texas A&M 41 vs ACC, North Carolina 27

Running Conference Results: SEC, 6-2 / ACC, 0-6

Conference Results: 10 conference and the Independents were treated as an 11th entry!

1st. B-12: 5-0 / 100%: Iowa State, OU, Ok State, Texas & West Virginia all won their Bowl games

2nd. MAC 2-0 / 100%: Buffalo & Ball State won their respective bowls

3rd. SBC 4-1 / 80%: Louisiana, Georgia Southern, Georgia State, & Appalachian State won, while SBC Champ, Coastal Carolina lost their game!

4th. SEC: 6-2 / 75%: Alabama, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, & Georgia all won. Auburn & Florida lost!

5th. B-10: 3-1 75%: Ohio State, Northwestern & Wisconsin won / Indiana lost to Ole Miss!

6th. IND: 2-1 / 67%; (Liberty & BYU won while Army lost to W. Virginia) 6th. MWC: 2-1 / 67%: (Nevada & Hawaii won / League Champ, San Jose lost to Ball State)

8th AAC: 1-5: Only Memphis won, beating Florida Atlantic; while Tulsa, Cincinnati, Central Florida, Tulane, & Houston all lost!

9th. PAC-12: 0-2 0.0%: Colorado lost to Texas & Oregon lost to Iowa State

10th ACC: 0-6 0.0% Clemson, Notre Dame, NC State, Miami, North Carolina, & wake Forest all lost 10th. C-USA 0-6 0.0%: Texas San Antonio, Western Kentucky, Florida Atlantic, Louisiana Tech, Marshall & North Texas all fell in their Bowl games!

January 11th, National Championship Game

B-10, Ohio State vs SEC, Alabama

Some other facts re; the 2020 Bowl Season:

Sully’s College Football Page Game Simulator went 14-8-3 in the Bowl Season, this is straight up, not against the spread.

The site struggles when Group of 5 (G5) teams play Power 5 (P5) teams. The simulator works off only numbers and has no data on conference strength, recruitment, or other disparities. As a result, it predicted Army would beat WV (they lost 24-21), that Cincy would beat Georgia (UGA won 24-21) & that Tulsa would take down Mississippi State, the Golden Hurricanes lost, 28-26!

While these games were all close, the G5’s did not win a game vs P5 (the 3 games mentioned above & BYU beat Central Florida (UCF) in the 2020 Bowl Season! On SCFP, we count ND (Independent on a normal year) & BYU as part of the Power 5.

These two addition gives the Power 5 Conferences, 66 of the 130 teams (B-10, SEC, ACC have 14 team each / for a total of 42, the PAC-12 has 12 teams & the B-12 has 10, 22 together and 64 when added to the ACC’s, SEC’s, & B-10’s 42, and finally, to 66 with ND & BYU) in the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS).

The G5 is also part of the FBS (an NCAA designation for 130 teams that must award 85 scholarships) that said, the P5 & G5 are constructs and are not part of the NCAA structure or language.

The Group of 5 has 64 teams (C-USA 14, MAC 12, AAC 11, MWC 12, SBC 10, & 5 IND (U-Conn, U-Mass, Liberty, New Mexico State, & Army!

The NCAA does have a Division 1 Football Championship, yet, Alabama & Ohio State are not playing for it, that tourney is played in the Football Championship Subdivision (FCS). The CFP is not a sponsored NCAA Championship, but rather a creation of the Power 5 Conferences!

Given that, it should come as no surprise that the Group of 5 is not in, or getting in the CFP anytime soon! Either the NCAA has to create a tourney that all 130 teams have a path to enter or someone has to challenge the lack of access among public institutions!

Finally. I would hate to see the loss of the Bowl Games, yet I fear they are going the way of the College Football All-Star Game! The last College All Star game was played on July 23, 1976 and sad to say it, looks like the Bowls are going to fade into history as well!

http://sullyscollegefootballpage.com/Football_Stats/Games_Listings.cfm

The above web address will take you to Sully’s College Football Page’s Game List Tab. Once there, click in the Game Date Box and a calendar will drop.

The dates you want are 12/ 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 29, 30, & 31.2020 & 1/ 1 & 2, 2021. What will come up will be a box score of statistical data, be sure to click on ‘View Matchup’ on the right side of the read-out. This will give you detailed information of the teams 2020 season, a projection of what the numbers said would happen and then a look as to what actually happened!

And as always, Enjoy the Games!

Posted in #1 Uncategorized |

Big 12 Championship Game: Oklahoma 7-2 / 6-2 vs Iowa State 8-2 / 8-1 @ AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX

The B-12 Championship Game is a rematch, earlier this season, ISU took down the powerful Sooners, @ home, 37-30! Statistically, the game was amazingly even (both teams were penalized 9 times, ISU for 93 to OU 90, Turnovers were even at 1 apiece, & Total Yards were 417 for ISU to OU’s 414. The significant statistical difference was on 3rd down, where the Cyclones converted 6 of 10 while holding OU to 4 /13!

SCFP’s Game Simulator calls the game a statistical tie, 4 to 4 in the 8 categories assessed. The Game Simulator likes ISU in Rushing Yards, 145 to 131; to win the Turnover battle, 1.27 to 1.31, and to outperform OU in both Red Zone areas. RZ scores (TD’s & FG’s) & RZ (TD’s only), ISU is more likely to score in the RZ vs OU’s D, 86% to 85% and more likely to score TD’s at 67% to OU 61%! Oklahoma has the advantage in Total Yards, 411 to 382; Passing Yards, 281 to 238; Scoring, 32 to 28, & 3rd down Conversions favor OU 40% to ISU 36%.

The teams have played 11 times since 2009, with OU winning 9 of the 11 games. That said, the teams have split the last four; with OU winning in 2019, 42-41 and in 2018, 37-27, with ISU winning the book ends, in 2017 the Cyclones won, 38-31 and winning this year’s game (2020), 37-30, in Ames

The teams are 1-1 on the road & @ home in the last 4 games, with OU winning in Ames in 2018 and Iowa State beating the Sooners in 2017 in Norman!

The QB are an interesting mix of raw talent, Spencer Rattler (2,512, 24 TD’s to 7 INT’s & 279.11 YPG and experienced skill, Brock Purdy (2,272, 17 TD’s to 6 INT’s & 227.2 YPG!

ISU is averaging 199.9 Rushing Yards Per Game to OU, 158.0 YPG! That said: Somewhat shockingly, OU has the 4th best rushing Defense in the country, allowing 2.99 YPR and 88.1 Yards Per Game, while ISU is 10th in the nation defending the run, allowing 3.09 YPR & 103.1 YPG!

The Vegas Hot$heets have OU established as a 6 point favorite!

In terms of common opponents, TCU: ISU beat the Horned Frogs, 37-34, OU won 33-14; Texas, OU won in 3 OT’s 53-45 while the Cyclones beat the Horns. 23-20, Oklahoma State, OU beat the Cowboys, 41-13 & ISU lost to OSU, 24-21! While there were other common opponents these 3 were the next best teams in the B-12.

Sully Says: OU wins & Covers

And as Always, Enjoy the Games!

Posted in #1 Uncategorized |

Big Ten Championship: Ohio State 5-0 vs Northwestern 6-1 @ Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN

Northwestern 6-1 / 6-1 vs Ohio State 5-0 / 5-0, TV: 11:00 / FOX; Favorite: Ohio State – 19.5

This is the largest point spread (19.5) in any of the nine conference championship games being played in 2020. Since 2009, the Cats and Bucks have played 4 times and the Bucks have won all 4 (2013, 40-30; 2016, 24-20; 2018, 45-24; & in 2019, 52-3)!

http://www.vegashotsheet.com/LiveLines-NCAA.html

In 2020, the Buckeyes & Wildcats have had 2 common opponents; Nebraska & Michigan State. NW beat Nebraska, 21-13, while Brutus hammered the Huskers, 52-17. OSU then blasted MSU, 52-12, the Cats, not so much, they lost to the Spartans, 29-20!

Northwestern won 6 games in 2020, with an average margin of victory of 14 points. Their most impressive victory was, @ home, vs Maryland, 43-3! Ohio State scored 117 more point than their opponents in 5 games during the 2020 season, with an average margin of victory of 23. 4 points.

In 2020, the B-10 had 4 teams with winning records ( OSU, 5-0; NW 6-1; Indiana; 6-1; & Iowa, 6-2) The Wildcats beat the Hawks, 21-20 & the Bucks beat the Hoosiers, 42-35!

SCFP Game Simulator thinks its, Ohio State in 6 of the 8 categories assessed. NW outperforms OSU only in the Red Zone’s 2 categories, RZ Scores, FG & TD’s (84.5% to 76.5%) and in RZ TD’s only (Cats 63% to OSU’s 49%) . In other words, NW has an 85% chance to score (TD or FG) against the Bucks D in the their RZ, while Brutus has a 77% chance to score (TD or FG) in the Cats RZ. The same logic applies with the scoring of TD’s only in the opponents RZ (The Cats have a 63% chance to score (a TD) vs the Bucks, while the Bucks have a 49% shot at a TD vs the Cats defense).

Please Note: To use the Simulator you must use it before midnight (12/18/2020, as it will not function on game day )(12/19)!

http://sullyscollegefootballpage.com/Football_Stats/Matchup.cfm

For Northwestern to have a fighting chance in this game, they must do two things, 1) Win the Turnover Battle (they lost it vs MSU, 4-1, their only loss), they did not lose the TO battle in any of their wins; 2) Do not allow the Bucks big plays, meaning do not allow OSU to score from outside of FG range.

The Cats must do what Clemson did in last year’s CFP Semi-Final, force OSU into the RZ and then limit them to FG’s! If their D can do that, game on!

For the Bucks to win the formula is athleticism, force NW to play in space and the route is on.

The Bucks are 4th in the country in scoring offense @ 46.6 PPG, NW is 90th in scoring offense, at a 25.3 clip per game. A clear mismatch; given these numbers in isolation! However, NW is 2nd in the nation is scoring defense, giving up 14.57 PPG, while OSU is 35th, surrendering 23.20 PPG.

Fitz knows he has to take away the big play, force the Bucks into the RZ and then limit them to FG’s. If they are able to force the game into the meat-house, the cats can roar.

Day knows if the Buck’s athletes can play in space and are able to strike from distance, well, this game will be hard to watch for NW fans!!

Sully’s Says: the Bucks win but do not cover, take the Cats and the opening line @ 19.5 points!

Posted in #1 Uncategorized |