Sully's Big Blog! Commentary on College Football, Weekly Games, And Strange Statistics!

Sully’s Six Pack of Winners in Week 5

Texas 3-0 @ Oklahoma State 2-1: Sully’s CFP simulator (Head to Head on the Site) predicts the following: Total Yards, passing yards, & rushing yards will be won by the Cowboys, while Turnovers, 3rd down conversions & red zone efficiency will be in the Longhorns favor. Sully’s CFP simulator predicts a 39-38.5 Okey State victory. As Lee Corso likes to say” not so fast my friend”, here is what Sully thinks! Okey State Stats are inflated by their 84-0 win vs Savannah State and their 64-24 drubbing of Louisiana Lafayette . When they had to play an AQ conference opponent, Arizona, on the road in Tucson, they got smacked, 59-38, gave up over 500 yards, and turned the ball over 4 times (same Arizona that got hammered by Oregon 49-0).  The Cowboys did gain over 600 yards in this game but were penalized 15 times for 167 yards. Keep in mind, for a lot of those yards, the Wildcat defense was playing the clock not the “Boys”. Meanwhile down on the ranch (the other ranch) the Horns are 3-0, including a, 66-31, whipping of the SEC’s Old Miss Rebels in Oxford. Texas is giving 2.5 Points! Sully says take Texas and give the Points!

Florida State 4-0 @ South Florida 2-2 : Sully’s CFP simulator clearly states that Florida State will dominate South Florida in all eight of the statistical categories it assesses (Total Yards, Passing Yards, Rushing Yards, Scoring, Third Down Conversions, Red Zone all scores, & Red Zone Touchdowns only) Sully agrees! South Florida opened the season with 2 wins, one over an FCS team, Chattanooga, from the SoCon (Southern Conference), 34-13 and beat a good Nevada team in Reno, 32-31. Then an AQ conference opponent, Rutgers, came to Tampa and beat the Bulls 23-13… Ok … Rutgers is good, they just beat Arkansas last week, in Fayetteville, 35-26! The Bulls then headed north, to Muncie, Indiana, to take on a MAC team, Ball State. USF gave up over 400 yards, lost the turnover battle 2-0, were penalized 11 times for112 yards, and lost the game, 31-27! While most of the Bulls are Florida youngsters and have played against many of the Seminoles in High School, they have seen nothing in their first four games that can, even remotely, simulate the speed they will be up against come Saturday night. Florida State lowest offensive scoring output this season is 49 points against a good Clemson defense… that is both quick and fast! FSU also put a 52 spot on Wake Forest (Wake did beat a good North Carolina team, 28-27) and while the offense was scoring 52, the Noles defense allowed the Demon Deacons 0 points! Florida State is a 16 point favorite.  Sully says take Florida State and give the points!

Clemson 3-1 @ Boston College 1-2 Clemson is heading north to Bean Town in a foul mood! Their 49-37 loss to Florida State has put them behind the eight ball in both divisional & conference play. Put simply, it is unlikely that FSU will lose a game in the ACC, although they do have to play NC State, Miami, & Va Tech all on the road. Ok… given the road opposition, a loss is clearly a possibility, but two.. C’mom! The Tigers know they have to win the rest of their ACC games and beat in-state rival, South Carolina to have a remote chance at a BCS Bowl berth. Their road trip back to prominence takes them to Boston first … I believe their defense will be mobile, agile, but mostly…. hostile in this game! Sully’s CFP Simulator says Clemson will outperform BC in seven of the 8 statistical categories assessed, only in passing yardage did the Eagles surpass the Tigers 279.5 to 249.5 yards. The Simulator did predict a final score 30.5 to 26 in favor of Clemson…  to which Sully Lee Corso’s that with, “not so fast my friend”! Clemson put 37 on a Seminole defense that had gavin up only 3 points in its first three games, beat perennial SEC power, Auburn, 26-19, in Atlanta and hammered Ball State, 52-27, the Cardinals (Ball State) have beaten Indiana, 41-39 and South Florida, 31-27 (2 AQ conference teams). Clemson is giving 10! Sully says give the 10 and take Clemson!

Marshall 2-2 @ Purdue 2-1 Purdue is, without question, the surprise team in the Big Ten this year (unless Minnesota wins at Iowa on Saturday and goes to 5-0…then clearly…. it’s the Gophers). The Boilermakers gave 4-0 Notre Dame their best game, a 20 to 17 nail-biter settled on a last second field goal by the Irish! Kawann Short is arguably be the best D tackle in the Big Ten and among the best in the country. The Purdue Defense is giving up only 14 points a game, while the offense is putting up 39.6 PPG! Marshall’s defense has surrender 171 points in four games or 42. 75 points per game. That said, the Thundering Herd’s offense has been effective, scoring 164 point in its first four games for an average of 41.0 points per game. Sully’s CFP Simulator chimes with the following data; Purdue wins 7 / 8 statistical categories and the game 41.5-27.5. Sully agrees…. the Boilers dominate this game , but Sully disagrees the the Simulators final score. This is the best defense that the Herd has faced which will equate to their lowest scoring output of the year. Purdue is giving 15 points. Sully says take Purdue and give the 15!

Ball State 3-1 @ Kent State 2-1: Ball state is off to a great start, with impressive wins over Big Ten (Indiana 41-39) and Big East (South Florida 31-27) AQ conference teams, as well as a league win over Eastern Michigan, 37-26! Their only loss is to ACC power Clemson, 52- 27. Kent State’s competition is a mere shadow of the teams that the Cardinals have taken on in the 2012 season. The Golden Flashes have beaten Towson 41-21, an FCS team from the CAA and won a conference game against Buffalo, 23-7. Their lone loss was at Kentucky, a 47-14 smack down! Sully’s CFP Simulator offered the following: Kent State prevails in 5 of the 8 categories and wins the game by a score of 31 to 29.5! Lee Corso that immediately!! Ball State’s level of competition and results suggest a much different outcome on the field. The Cardinals are giving 2.5! Sully says take Ball state and give the 2.5!

ULM 1-2 @ Tulane 0-3: ULM (Louisiana Monroe) has been one of the great stories in 2012. They put the college football world on its head by marching into Little Rock and beating Arkansas in OT, 34-31! They then went back for more SEC dynamite, taken on Auburn in Jordan-Hare Stadium, …. with the Tigers fully aware of what the Warhawks did the week before to the Razorbacks. It did not matter, ULM forced OT again, this time falling, 31-28, to  AU. ULM then hosted an undefeated Baylor and battled yet another AQ conference opponent to thefinal minutes of the game … a 47-42 loss! ULM led in this game in the 1st half, 21-7.  and held a 35-34  lead until the 7:10 mark 4th quarter.  Tulane has struggled to score this year, they are averaging 7.34 points per game … scoring a mere 22 points in three games!. That said, they have played against good competition (Rutgers 24-12, Tulsa 45-12, & Ole Miss 39-0). Sully CFP Simulator figures this way; The Warhawks stem the tide of The Green Wave in 7 of 8 statistical categories and win the game by a score 35.5 t0 21.5. Sully agrees! ULM is giving Tulane 20 points! Sully says take ULM and give the 20!

Posted in #4 Sully's CFP Six Pack of Winners, ACC, Arizona, Arizona State, Arkansas, Auburn, Ball State, Baylor, Boston College, C-USA, Chattanooga, Clemson, Florida State, Kent State, Kentucky, Louisiana, Marshall, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Oklahoma State, Oregon, Purdue, SEC, South Florida, Texas, ULM, Wake Forest |

Big Ten Update and Best Game in Week 5

Wisconsin 3-1 @ Nebraska 3-1 The Badgers have gone to Lincoln twice over the years with not very good results. In 1965, they got hammered 37-0 and went back for more in 1973, only to lose a close game, 20-16! Further, the Badgers do not do well in Big Ten road openers, just 1-6 the past seven years. Michigan State has done the damage the past two years, 34-24 in 2010 & 37-31 in 2011. Last year, the Huskers came to Madison for their angural Big Ten game and were pounded by the Badgers, 48-17.  Nerbraska is 34-3 in conference openers … played anywhere … home or away! The series is tied at 3-3. One last thought on this game… the Big Ten officials dropped the ball on this game… it should be played on the Friday after Thanksgiving and Billed as the BIG RED GAME! This could have become part of the Thanksgiving Experience and, in time, a rival of the Michigan / OSU showdown!

Ohio State 4-0 @ Michigan State 3-1 Sully’s CFP has identified this contest as the Best Game in the Big Ten in week five! In their last seven games @ Spartan Stadium, OSU is 6-1 with the last three wins being by an average of 27 points. That said, last year the Spartans marched into the Horseshoe and stopped the Bucks, 10-7, with OSU scoring a late, meaningless, touchdown. MSU has not beaten OSU in back to back seasons sinse the 1998 -99 campaigns. This should be an interesting game …. watch for the Spartans to get Le’Veon Bell going early and often with the Buckeyes having the exact opposite perspective on defense.

Penn State 2-2 @ Illinois 2-2  There will be no lost love in this game as Illini coaches were on PSU campus after the NCAA announced the sanctions against Penn State officials. These individuals were involved in the attack (1) or cover up of the sexual assults on children that took place @ Penn State. Illinois is 2 -16 in Big Ten openers while the Lions are 7-3 vs the Illini in Champaign. Last year in Happy Valley, Penn State prevailed in a hard fought game, 10-7! The Lions are 3-2 in the last five games against the Illini!

Indiana 2-1 @ Northwestern 4-0 Indiana has not won a game in Evanston since 1993, this includes 6 straight losses to the Cats … although the last 4 have been close! In the last five games the Hoosiers are 1-4 against Wildcats and the Cats have won 11 of the last 14 games played in this series. The three wins the Hoosiers did manage were all in Bloomington. Northwestern travels to Penn State & Minnesota the following two weeks… a solid shot to run their record to 7-0…. if they stay focused in this week’s game.

Minnesota 4-0 @ Iowa 2-2 This is the biggest game the Golden Goprers have played in years. A win here and the Gophers move to 5-0 going into their bye week. The good news is they have beaten the Hawks two straight, 27-24 in 2010 and 22-21 last year. The bad news is they have lost 5 in row to the Hawks in Iowa City and are 1-9 in their last ten visits! Iowa is coming off a tough loss to Central Michigan, 32-31 while Minnesota beat Syracuse last week @ home, 17-10! This is an old rivalery, played every year since 1931 and the winner is awared the Floyd of Rosedale Trophy ( A Bronze Pig) established in 1935!

Marshall 2-2 @ Purdue 2-1 Purdue steps out of the conference this week to take on C-USA member, Marshall. This is the first meeting of these teams. The Boilers have a winning record when coming off a bye week and have been better than advertised. In fact, it would be fair to say they are playing as well as or better than any team in the Leaders Division!. Meanwhile, the Thundering Herd most recent gridiron experience was a wild overtime win, 54-51, @ Rice. That said, Marshall has never beaten a Big Ten team, 0-6 all time, with the average score being a negative 41-12!

Michigan 2-2 has a Bye Week! Next up for the Wolves.. @ Purdue

Posted in Big Ten, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Marshall, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Wisconsin |

SEC: Update and Best Game in Week 5

The SEC docket includes the following games:

SEC West

LSU 4-0 hosts Towson 2-1… The Tigers (Towson) a FCS team from the CAA (Colonial Athletic Association). This marks the meeting between the schools and the Tigers should have little to no problem in this game!

Ole Miss 3-1 @ Alabama 4-0… This game will be closer than many “experts” are predicting! Four of the last five games have been relatively close and two of the five have been really close (2007, 27 -24; 2008, 24-20; 2009, 22-3; 2010, 23-10; & 2011, 52-7…. all Bama victories) The Rebels will not fear the Tide’s defense or speed as they have experienced it before and know what is coming. Ole Miss has not beaten the Tide in Tuscaloosa since 1988 and that streak is likely to continue!

Arkansas 1-3 @ Texas A&M 2-1 The last time these teams played a conference game was in the early 1990’s in the old Southwest Conference (SWC). Last year A&M led 35-17 @ half time but could not hold the lead and lost 42-38. This is clearly one of the most interesting games in the SEC… given the John L Smith saga in Razorback country, the history of the teams, & the interest in how the Aggies’ style of play will fare against SEC defenses.

Mississippi State 4-0 has a Bye Week! Up next… @ Kentucky

Auburn 2-2 has a Bye Week! Up next… Arkansas @ Home

SEC East   

Tennessee 3-1 @ Georgia 4-0   Sullys CFP has identified this as the Best Game in the SEC in week 5. The Bulldogs have won 8 of the last 12 games against the Volunteers and two in a row. The most recent games @ Sanford Stadium (Georgia’s home Stadium) the Dawgs have won with relative ease, 26-14  in 2008 & in 2010, 41-14. That said, UT has actually won this game in 6 of their last 10 trips to Athens. The teams have a family connection as Derek Dooley’s (UT Head Coach) father is the legendary Georgia Coach, Vince Dooley and Derek was a grad asst. @ UGA in 1996!

South Carolina 4-0 @ Kentucky 1-3  The Gamecocks are 11-1 all time vs the Wildcats, but lost the last time they traveled to Lexington (2010), 31-28. This fact was a clear motivating factor in last year’s game, as the Cocks put a 52 spot on the Cats… a 52 to 3 tail whipping!

Missouri 1-3 @ Central Florida 2-1 This is the first meeting between the universities with the Tigers trying to right the ship after two 21 points losses to SEC teams (Georgia 41-20 @ home & to South Carolina 31-10 on the road). UCF’s lone loss was at Ohio State, 31-16.

Florida 4-0 has a Bye Week. Up next… LSU @ Home  

Vanderbilt 1-3 has Bye Week. Up next…. @ Missouri

Posted in Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, SEC, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt |

Sully’s College Football Wrap Up

What We Learned:

Florida State is good.  Even better than we thought, in fact.  While they did start a bit slow tonight with a bad fumble and two missed field goals in the first half, they exploded for a 35-3 run in the second half the set the tone for the rest of the night.  In addition to the stellar play of QB EJ Manuel, RB Chris Thompson has over 300 yards rushing in just two ACC games.  There is speed everywhere on this football team, and they may be one of the few teams in college football that can challenge Alabama this year.  The score of tonight’s game was 49-37, but it wasn’t even that close.  FSU took a knee late inside of the five yard line of Clemson – a score there would have had the game 56-37.  When you check our rankings tomorrow, they will be bumped up.

The Big Ten Really is Not Very Good This year:

The out of conference results for the BT this year have been brutal, from Michigan being physically dominated by Alabama and stomped by Notre Dame, to Ohio State and Wisconsin putting up underwhelming results against their OOC foes.  Additionally, Illinois was slaughtered tonight by Louisiana Tech by a score of 52-24, and Iowa was defeated by the lowly Central Michigan.  The team that many had pegged to represent the Big Ten this year, Michigan State, was dominated by Notre Dame last week, and this weekend they really struggled with a bad Eastern Michigan team.  With this in mind, it is only fair to mention that while OSU has struggled with average/moderately decent teams like Cal, UCF  and FAU, they are still undefeated, which is more than the other front runners of the conference can say at this point.  Surprisingly enough, it is Northwestern that has been the most impressive, as they are 3-0 vs  FBS automatic qualifiers this year.

Kansas State is For Real:

After being absolutely throttled by the Sooners last season, KSU showed up tonight to play.  They limited the OU to just 88 yards rushing on 27 rushes, and when it mattered most, they found a way to generate points.  At this point, it is only fair to consider KSU as a co-favorite, if not outright favorite, to win the Big 12.  Texas looks much improved, but they still have some QB questions, and West Virginia, while exceptionally talented, struggled with a not so good Maryland team today.  It is hard not to like Bill Synder’s experience, and Collin Kline is an absolute gamer.  The kid just finds ways.

Strange Stats of The Day:

In tonight’s big match-up between Arizona and Oregon, the Wildcats were shut out by an embarrassing 49-0 score.  The reason?  Arizona was in the redzone 6 times tonight, and they scored absolutely no points.  That is quite honestly bizarre.

At one point during the Michigan-Notre Dame game, Michigan was intercepted on five straight pass attempts.  In all of my years of watching football, I do not think I have ever seen something like that happen.  Not five in a row, at least.

Old Dominion QB Taylor Heinicke passed for staggering 730 yards tonight against rival New-Hampshire, which set a Division I record for the most passing yards ever in a game, which was previously held by Former Houston quarterback David Klingler (716 yards against Arizona State in 1990).

Our Knee Jerk Reaction After Tonight’s Slate of Games:

1.) The SEC, yet again, is great.  Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, LSU and Alabama are all, in our minds, top ten teams.

2.) Florida State and LSU may be the only two teams that can beat Alabama this year.  We understand that, that is arguable, and as the season progresses, we may adjust that view.  Still, we are comfortable with that assertion for now. It is tough to leave out Oregon, but go watch them against LSU and Auburn, or even Ohio State.  For reasons we can’t fully explain, they do not run their normal high tempo, hurry up offense against elite SEC/defensive teams.  They move at a much slower pace, and often they fail to get the snap off before the play clock hits ten seconds.  To be blunt, Oregon tends to get pushed around a bit against elite defensive teams,  and until we see differently, it is tough to envision them beating the best SEC teams.

3.) Michigan is not ready.  Not yet.  They were ranked too high to begin the season, to be frank.  Hoke is an excellent coach, and while Denard Robinson is an awesome player, it may be better for Michigan in the long run to have a…smoother passer running their offense.  I think at this point Hoke is running an offense that he is not totally comfortable running, and incoming QB recruit Shane Morris should set up Michigan nicely for future success from an offensive perspective.

4.) Notre Dame is better, but they still also have a long ways to go.  Whenever Notre Dame starts off a season well, there is a tendency to sensationalize what they are doing.  They have better team speed than they have had for probably the past decade – all one has to do is watch them for a quarter to see that.  With that being said, they are still not an elite team, and we would caution people to be, well…cautious with them.  The QB they are committed to this year, Everett Golson, is young, and they will slip up at some point this year.  We like Kelly as a coach and think he is doing a good job, but ND is a decent, not outstanding team.  A 9-3 or 10-2 record may be in line for them, but no national championship run will be occurring this season for the Irish.  They are at least a year away from being in that discussion.

 

Have any other thoughts for us?  We sure hope so.  Hit us up in the comment section, folks.  This season is setting up to be a fun one.

Oh, and one last thing.  This guy gets our “Fan fail of the day.”  Ouch…Just ouch.

Posted in ACC, Alabama, Big Ten, Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Houston, Iowa, LSU, MAC, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oregon, PAC 12, SEC, South Carolina, Wisconsin |

Non AQ Independents in Week 4

Independents

 

BYU 2-2 Already played this week … lost to Boise State on the Blue Field … 7-6! The Cougars defense played great and the offense was bad … real bad! I really like this team and the last two weeks are somewhat of a mystery? The Utah loss (24-21) was a seeming (lack of focus at the beginning of the game and missed opportunities at the end). This team is good … and that is with an offense that is simply not performing!

Army 0-2 The Black Knight travel to North Carolina to take on Wake Forest in Winston-Salem and given the history of the Demon Deacon … this could be a witch hunt! Army is 0-4 all time against Wake. Last meeting was in 07 … 21-10 loss for the Cadets!

Navy 0-2 the midshipmen are gearing up to take on the Army … no … not that Army .. the army that trains at VMI (Virginia Military Institute). Navy beats Army … apparently … any army … regularly! The Middies are 8-0 vs VMI (and have won 10 straight against Black & Blue Knights) … and should make it … 9 … by seventeen hundred … or 5 p.m. Eastern Standard Time today! 

Posted in Boise State, Mountain West, Navy, Wake Forest |

Non AQ Conference Updates Week 4

Sun Belt Conference

Florida International 1-2 has invited a 3-0 Louisville to Miami and FIU Stadium for this Saturday afternoon clash. These teams have met only once … last year … with the Cardinals prevailing over the Panthers, 24-17.

Troy 1-2 has packed their bags and have headed to Texas… make that North Texas (1-2). Troy has won the last three times they have gone to visit Benton, TX … with North Texas’ last win @ home coming in 2003  (21-0)

Louisiana Lafayette 2-1 has a Bye this week

Western Kentucky 2-1 fresh off one of the schools best wins ever … a 32-31 overtime shocker over in-state rival and SEC member Kentucky. Today’s game is the first meeting between WKU and  a winless Southern Miss! Usually the Golden Eagles are the better team/ program … but not this year.

Arkansas State 1-2 welcomes Alcorn State, an FCS team out of the SWAC. Arkansas State is 8-0 vs FCS teams since making the jump from the FCS to the FBS themselves in 1992 …  winning by an average score of 51-10. This is the first meeting between these Universities!

ULM 1-2 do not let the record fool you … this may be the best team in the Sun Belt. The Warhawks played and lost to Baylor last night, 47-42 … while they have also lost an overtime game to Auburn (31-28) and won an overtime game against Arkansas (34-31). These OT games are against the mighty SEC & last night’s loss was to a Big 12 team! Impressive!

Middle Tennessee State 2-1 has a bye week.

North Texas 1-2 see above..

Florida Atlantic 1-2 travels to Alabama to face the Tide … Feel the pain .. it is real! FAU is 0-9 vs FBS opponents … make that 0-10 … wait … make it 0-11 … we may have to count this as two losses!

South Alabama 1-2 the Jaguars are in Mississippi … Starkville to be exact for a game with Mississippi State (3-0). This will not be pretty! This is the First meeting of these schools … South Alabama has only fielded a team since 2009!

Posted in Arkansas State, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Louisiana, Middle Tennessee, South Alabama, Sun Belt, Troy, ULM |

Non AQ Conference Updates Week 4

Mountain West Conference

Boise State 2-1 has already beaten BYU 7-6. In this game the Broncos forced 5 Cougar turnovers and yet …. won by a lone point. BYU plays very hard and its defense stood tall …. while its offense stumbled aimlessly around the field. That said, this Boise squad is not the same team we have watched with Kellen Moore and Doug Martin.

Nevada 2-1 The Wolf Pack road win against Cal (31-24)  is looking pretty good …. based on California’s performance @ Ohio State (a 35-28 loss for the Bears). This week Nevada heads for the Islands to challenge Hawaii in Honolulu. Last year the Wolf Pack outscored the Warriors 42-28!

Fresno State 2-1 The Bulldogs are playing at a high level  with wins against Weber State (37-10) and Colorado (69-14) and a very competitive loss to Oregon (42-25). This week, FSU travels to Tulsa, the Bulldogs are 4-1 against the Golden Hurricanes and a win here would continue to build the support that new coach, Tim DeRuyter, could use having replaced the legendary Pat White (Anybody, Anywhere, Anytime) under less than ideal circumstances.

Air Force 1-1 is coming off a bye week as it heads for MWC for Sin City to take on an 0-3 UNLV team. The Falcons have won 9 of the last 10 and 5 in a row against the Rebels by an average of 18 points. Last year AF won 45-17 … but led only 14-10 @ the midpoint of the 2nd quarter.

San Diego State 2-1 welcomes a greatly improved San Jose State. Last time these teams met was in 2008 ….. The Aztecs lost that game 35-10 to the Spartans from SJSU. The game has added meaning for San Jose State as they will be trying to impress MWC officials …. as the Spartans need a new conference to play in as the WAC is dissolving after the 2012 season.

Wyoming 0-3 is traveling to Idaho to line-up against a Vandal team that they are 4-1 all time against and, as a matter of fact, the last time the Cowboys  failed to get a W vs Idaho was in 1921!

Colorado State1-2 is home to Utah State… a team that missed a last second field goal against Wisconsin to secure a huge upset. Last year, CSU won this game in 2 OTs as Utah State went for the win and missed a two point conversion in the second overtime….

Hawaii 1-1 vs Nevada at home. See above!

UNLV 0-3 vs Air Force @ home. See above!

New Mexico 1-2 leaves Albuquerque, NM and heads for Las Cruces, NW where New Mexico State awaits. This in-state battle is known as the Rio Grande Rivalry and while the Lobos (New Mexico) lead the series by a large margin … the Aggies (NM State) has won the last three games.

 

Posted in Air Force, Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, Hawaii, Mountain West, Nevada, New Mexico, San Diego State, San Jose State, UNLV |

Non AQ Conference Updates Week 4

WAC:

The headliner is Louisiana Tech, 2-0 at Illinois, 2-1… do not be shocked… surprised Ok… but not shocked … if Tech gets this done in Champaign. This is the best team in the WAC and the Bulldogs scored 112 points in its first two games against Houston 56-49 and Rice 56-37 (Rice beat Kansas, 25-24, the Saturday before this game the Tech loss).

Utah State 2-1 takes on Colorado State 1-2 ( CSU’s only win this season was against a winless Colorado). The Aggies are a wide right field goal in the Wisconsin game (a 16-14 loss) from being 3-0.  Last year this game ( An Aggie loss 34-35 to CSU) went into OT before USU missed a 2-point conversion in the second overtime!

San Jose State 2-1 travels down the coast to play San Diego State 2-1. In the past, the Aztecs would have been a solid to a heavy favorite…. not so much now! The Spartans are playing their best football in years and their 20-17 loss to Stanford… (given Stanford’s 21-14 win over USC) coupled with two wins over UC Davis 47-13 and Colorado State 40-20 speaks to this improvement. A year or two ago they could /would have lost to either UC Davis or CSU and no one would have been even remotely surprised ! This a very important game for SJSU …..  they will be looking to showcase their product…  as they look for membership in  another FBS conference….. Mountain West for starters… where SDSU plays!

Idaho 0-3 puts out the welcome mat for Wyoming 0-3. The Vandals last beat the Cowboys in 1921 – you got it – 1921! –  and are 1-4 against them overall. For reasons known but to God … Idaho’s AD scheduled LSU (63-14) and to add insult to injury …. the Vandals also lost to Eastern Washington 20-3, a good FCS team …. but an FCS team non-the-less (85 scholarships to 63 scholarships should seal the deal). Wyoming has also lost to a FCS team Cal Poly… and played Texas 37-17 loss ….. so this game should….. by what these teams have experienced ..  is interesting not only on paper…. but to see who prevails on the field.

New Mexico State 1-2 hosts in-state rival New Mexico 1-2  … The Game is known as the Rio Grande Rivalry and New Mexico leads the series 66-31-5. That said, NM State has won two in a row and both New Mexico schools enter the contest at 1-2.

Texas State 1-1 plays host to Stephen F. Austin (an FCS team out of the Southland Conference) … and this may well be their last shot at a win until they play UTSA (University of Texas at San Antonio) on November 24th.

UTSA (University of Texas San Antonio) 3-0 only one of these wins have come against an FCS team (South Alabama)  and today they face a NAIA team in NW Oklahoma State University. The Roadrunners should have no issues with the Rangers (86 scholarship players to 36 NWOSU) .

Posted in Fresno State, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico State, San Jose State, Utah State |

Best and Worst Games in Week 4

ACC

Best: No question the Clemson @ Florida State is the best game in the conference and may be the best in the country. Clemson rolls in to Tallahassee with a 3-0 record and a signiture win over Auburn; while the Seminoles lost their scheduled game with West Virginia and had to play two FCS teams to start the season. This game will be highly entertaining as both teams have speed on either side of the ball. In each the last five meetings the home team has won this game!

Worst: The Citadel @ NC State – the Bulldogs are 6-64-2 against current ACC teams… 0-4 vs The Wolfpack and last year went 4-7 against FCS and SoCon competition ….. while playing one FBS team, South Carolina, and losing… 41-20 to the Gamecocks.

Big 12

Best:   Kansas State @ Oklahoma brings together two undefeated teams … the Wildcats are 3-0 while the Sooneres are 2-0. K-State has a signiture win vs Miami of Florida 52-12 while OU’s best opponent thus far is UTEP, an underwhelming performance by Oklahoma …. winning 24-7. Oklahoma has won the last three meetings … including last year’s tilt in Manhattan, 58-12!

Worst: A strong non conference line-up negates a worst game… one issue though…. is too many byes… Texas, Iowa State, Texas Tech, & Oklahoma State are all Idle this week!

Big East: 

Best: Rutgers @ Arkansas is a game much like the Pitt vs Virginia Tech a week ago… a chance for the Big East to stand up and shout about their being relevant… about being in the mix when AQ conferences are discussed ….in accomplishment … not just in name. Arkansas is struggling… making a positive outcome all the more important for the Big East … and unlike the Pitt / Va Tech game… this is a road game in Fayetteville for the Scarlet Knights.

Worst:   Gardner-Webb @ Pitt… the Runnin Bulldogs went 4-7 a year ago… losing to two FBS teams, Ohio 30-3 and Wake Forest 48-5. Meanwhile… the Panthers are 11-0 vs FCS teams…. winning by an average score of 41-14…. Turn out the lights…

Big Ten

Best: Not sure where Game Day is headed (Probably Tallahassee … Clemson @ Florida State)…. but the best game in the Big Ten is in South Bend and …at least arguably … the second best in the country – finds… #18 Michigan traveling to Indiana to take on #14 ND (at least according the Sully’s CFP Top 25 Rankings). These games have been extremely close the past three years with the losing team having the lead inside the last minute of the game in two of the last three contests!

Worst: Idaho State @ Nebraska… the Bengals have had 8 straight losing season as a FCS and Big Sky member and last year they lost to Washington State, 64-21 and BYU, 56-3. That said, Nebraska has held its last four FCS opponents to 7 points or less… beating Chattanooga last year 40-7!

Pac 12: 

Best: Arizona @ Oregon… This game should be a track meet…. with both teams scoring at a rate to overheat the scoreboard and challenge the stat-takers ability to calculate data points! Both teams like to outscore you and my thought…. this game will be the most entertaining game of the day. Arizona has scored 115 points in the past two weeks … while the ducks have been ‘held’ to mere 105. Should be fun!

Worst:  None… Conference match-ups … With Washington & Stanford having bye weeks!

SEC:

Best: Two weeks ago I would not have hesitated… LSU@ Auburn… would have been the easy call. That said, the Tigers (Auburn version not the LSU’s) have not played well! So I am going with the third Tiger mascot … Missouri’s …. at South Carolina. This is the first road trip for the former Big 12 team… and I am very interested to see how they respond to an SEC crowd and environment!  

Worst: South Alabama @ Mississippi State puts a team that has been playing Football since 2009 …. on any level… just playing football ….. let me say that again… since 2009! The Jaguars are currently playing in the Sun Belt Conference… but are not eligible to win the conference or play in a bowl until 2013! Meanwhile the Bulldogs are 3-0… beating the likes of Auburn and Sun Belt Power … Troy last week! Wake me when it’s over!

Posted in AAC, ACC, Arizona, Arkansas, Big 12, Big Ten, Clemson, Florida State, Michigan State, Oklahoma State, Oregon, PAC 12, Pittsburgh, South Carolina, Texas, Texas Tech |

Sully’s CFP Six Pack of Winners in Week 4

Ole Miss 2-1 @ Tulane 0-2: The Rebels are giving a week Tulane 17 1/2…. it opened at 14 … so  $ on Ole Miss… have driven it to 17.5! The Green Wave have scored a total of 22 points in their first two games…. 12 against Rutgers  (24-12 loss) and 10 vs Tulsa (45-10 whipping). Mississippi put 31 on Texas last week (66-31) while beating UTEP 28 -10, and Central Arkansas 49-27. Ole Miss has won ten straight over Tulane … by an average of 17 points. The game is at Tulane… and history says take Tulane by a the half point! Sully’s CFP says….. Tulane is bad & has not played against the speed Ole Miss brings to the Superdome…  Take Ole Miss and give the points!

Clemson 3-0 at Florida State 3-0: FSU is giving The Tigers 14 after opening at 13! Clemson has played the better schedule … at least on paper… Auburn (Clemson won 26-19) has not been who we thought they were @ 1-2 and the one win being in OT, 31-28, against Louisiana Monroe. The Seminoles, on the other hand, have played two FCS teams …Murray State (69-3 blasting) & Savannah State (55-0) in less then 3 quarters and then a 52 to zip pounding of Wake Forest. This marks the fourth straight home game for State and Clemson’s first road trip. The Seminoles have given up only 3 points all year (no question to weak opposition…. but Wake did beat UNC 28-27 and did so by scoring 4 TDs)! Sully’s CFP says take FSU and give the points!

Arizona 3-0 @ Oregon 3-0: This Game opened at 24 and is now at 23-5! While Oregon has won the last five, they would have covered the 23 1/2 only once…last year’s 56-31 pounding of the Wildcats in the Desert. Rich-Rod’s teams play little to not much D and Oregon loves to play O…. 57-34 win vs Arkansas State, 42 -25 against Fresno State, & a 63-14 pounding of Tennessee Tech! Meanwhile….Arizona has scored 115 points the past two weeks, including 59 against Oklahoma State. Neither of these teams seem to interested in stopping anyone… just outscoring them. Sully’s CFP says take Arizona and the points.

Michigan 2-1 @ Notre Dame 3-0: Michigan is getting 5 1/2 after the game opened @ 6.5! The Wolverines have beaten the Irish 4 of the last five and the last three wins have all been by 4 points. Last year ND led 24-7 in the 4th quarter and and 31-28 with 30 seconds left and Michigan 80 yards from Paydirt… the Wolverines completed a 64 pass on 2nd and 10 and then the a 16 yard completion for a TD ….. for the improbable win in front of 114,000 Michigan faithful. This game… again… will be played under the lights… this time in front of 80.795 ND faithful. Sully’s CFP says take ND and give the points.

UTEP 1-2 @ Wisconsin 2-1: The game opened at 16 and is now at 17 1/2! Wisconsin is 2-1 this season and…. 4 more points in the Oregon State game and the Badgers are undefeated… at perfect 3-0. That said, UTEP has been in with the big boys this year … they hosted Oklahoma and battled them to a 24-7 loss, then traveled to Ole Miss and played them tough, 28-10, and last week won their first game against New Mexico State 41-28. Please Note…. Oklahoma would not have covered the 17.5…. while Old Miss would have by a half point! While the Badgers will win this game… Sully’s CFP says take UTEP and the Points!

Missouri 2-1 @ South Carolina 3-0: Now the welcoming to the SEC really begins as Missouri travels from Columbia, Missouri to Columbia, South Carolina. This game opened at 10 and has stayed right there with South Carolina giving the points! Missouri played Georgia as hard as I thought they could play, were @ home and led well into the game … but in the end… they were actually doubled up and beaten 41-20. Connor Shaw, USC QB is back for the game and will start… although starting safety, D J Swearinger has been suspended one game for a helmet-to-helmet hit on a UAB player in last weeks’s contest. Sully’s CFP page says Take the Gamecocks and give the points! 

 

 

Posted in #4 Sully's CFP Six Pack of Winners, ACC, Arizona, Clemson, Florida State, Michigan, Notre Dame, Ole Miss, Oregon, PAC 12, SEC, Wisconsin |