SDCCU Poinsetta Bowl Utah State & NIU 2013

Bowl History: The original Poinsettia Bowl was first played in 1952 and featured the champions of the Eastern and Western Military Bases against one another. Bolling Air Force Base defeated San Diego Naval Training Center, 35-14, on December 20, 1952! This format was followed through 1955, the bowl was cancelled after the 55 game! The Poinsettia Bowl was resurrected in 2005, with the intent to involve the military academies on an annual basis … when and if Bowl eligible. In 2005, Navy beat Colorado State, 51-30, last year’s game featured BYU and SDSU, a game won by BYU, 23-6! The 2008 game, between #11 (TCU) and 9th ranked (Boise State) was the highest rated pre-Christmas Bowl game ever on ESPN – TCU 17 Boise State 16! Poinsettia Bowl Pay out, $500,000.00 per team

Teams:  Northern Illinois, MAC , Overall Record 12-1, Conference Record 8-1, Division Record 5-0 vs Utah State, Mountain West Conference, Overall Record 8-5, Conference Mark 7-1. & Mountain Division 4-1!

Bowl Location:  San Diego, California. The San Diego County Credit Union Bowl is played at Qualcomm Stadium with a capacity of 71,500!  The 2010 game between San Diego State & Navy (SDSU won 35-14) boast’s the Bowl’s highest attendance, 48,049!

Day, Date & Time: Thursday, 12/26/2013 @ 8:30 p.m. CST

Network: ESPN

Best Win(s): Utah State: UNLV 28-24 & Colorado state 13-0; NIU: Iowa 30-27 & Purdue 55-24

Worst Losses: Utah State: Utah 30-26  NIU: Bowling Green 47-27

Common Opponents: None

Las Vegas Hotsheet Favorite: Utah State -1

Offensive Team Data: Northern Illinois; Total Yards,  536 YPG; Passing Yards,  223 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  312 YPG; Scoring Average,  42 PPG, Turnovers,  1.15 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 45.6%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 88% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 59%

Offensive Team Data: Utah State; Total Yards,  421 YPG; Passing Yards, 241 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 180  YPG; Scoring Average  33 PPG, Turnovers,  1.31 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 45.6%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 93% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 76%

Defensive Team Data: Northern Illinois; Total Yards,  424 YPG; Passing Yards,  274 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 150 YPG; Scoring Average,  25 PPG, Turnovers,  2.15 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 38.5%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 85% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 64%

Defensive Team Data: ; Total Yards,  332 YPG; Passing Yards,  225 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  107 YPG; Scoring Average,  17 PPG, Turnovers,  2.15 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 32.2%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 71% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 41%

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take USU’s total yards on offense, add it to what NIU gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking NIU’s total offense, add it to what Utah state gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards:  Advantage, NIU…. 434 to 423

Passing Yards: Advantage, Utah State.…. 258 to 224

Rushing Yards: Advantage, NIU.…. 210 to 165

Scoring: Advantage, .NIU…. 30 to 29

Turnovers: Advantage: NIU … 1.65 to 1.73

3rd Down Conversions: Advantage: Utah State,  ... 42.05% to 38.9

Red Zone All Scores: Advantage, Utah State… 89% to 80%

Red Zone TD’s Only: Advantage, Utah State… 70% to 50%

Individuals to Watch: Utah State: Chuckie Keeton NIU: QB, Jordan Lynch, passing yards 2676, 23 TD’s 7 INT’s … Rushing 274 carries, 1881 rushing yards & 22 TD’s

Sully Says: Jordan Lynch (Mount Carmel H.S.   ….  64th & Donte on Chicago’s South Side … Lynch’s old stompimg grounds) & NIU O’ are in with a defense similar to Bowling Green’s (a 47 to 27 popping)… different result this time …. NIU gets this done against USU D’  ….. Take Northern and the point …..  as NIU outscores USU!!