Sully's Big Blog! Commentary on College Football, Weekly Games, And Strange Statistics!

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

Bowl History: This Bowl began in 1997, (formally known as the Humanitarian Bowl) Conference tie-ins … WAC Champ vs a team from the MAC. Cincinnati beat Utah State in the Bowl’s inaugural game, 35-19, while the defending champion from Ohio University, also, beat Utah State, 24-23, in 2011. Bowl Payout … $750,000.00 to both teams!

Teams: Toledo; Regular Season 9-3 / MAC Conference Record 6-2 (tied for 2nd in the East Division of the MAC) vs Utah State; Regular Season Record 10-2 / WAC Conference Record 6-0 (WAC Champion)

Bowl Location: The game is played annually in Boise, Idaho @ Bronco Stadium on the campus of Boise State University! Stadium capacity is 33,500 … Highest attandence, 2002, 30,446 … Boise state beat Iowa State, 34-16… Lowest attandance, 1997, 16,289, when, as mentioned, Cincinnati beat Utah State, 35-19!

Day, Date, & Time: Saturday, 12/15/12, 3:30 CST

Network: ESPN

Best Wins: Utah State: Beat Utah, 27-24 in OT, pounded a 10-2 San Jose State, 49-27, and survived a 9-3 Louisiana Tech, 48-41 in OT! Toledo Beat an undefeated Cincinnati (at the time the game was played) 29-23.

Worst Losses: Utah State: Wisconsin, 16-14, missed a short FG as time expired … outplayed the Badgers and should have won the game! Toledo: Ball State, 34-27 @ home … looking pass the Cardinals to their showdown with Northern Illinois?

Common Opponents: None

Las Vegas Hotsheet: Utah State -10 over Toledo! Game opened at Utah State -8  moved to 10 based on dollar flow…

Offensive Team Data: Utah State: Total Yards, 461 YPG; Passing Yards, 268 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 193 YPG; Scoring Average 34 PPG, Turnovers, 1.58 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 45.3%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 82% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 65%

Offensive Team Data: Toledo: Total Yards, 456 YPG; Passing Yards, 259 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 197 YPG; Scoring Average 33 PPG, Turnovers, 1.50 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 42.9%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 82% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 49%

Defensive Team Data: Utah State: Total Yards, 323 YPG; Passing Yards, 211 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 111 YPG; Scoring Average 15 PPG, Turnovers, 1.5 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 32.7%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 64% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 33% 

Defensive Team Data: Toledo: Total Yards, 463 YPG; Passing Yards, 295 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 168 YPG; Scoring Average 27 PPG, Turnovers, 2.08 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 40%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 67% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 48% 

Sully’s Game: Simulator: is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take Utah State’s total yards on offense, add it to what Toledo gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Toledo’s total offense, add it to what Utah State gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards: Advantage: Utah State 462-390

Passing Yards: Advantage: Utah State 282-235 

Rushing Yards: Advantage: Utah State 181-154

Scoring: Advantage: Utah State 31-24 

Turnovers: Advantage: Toledo 1.50-1.83 

3rd Down Conversions: Advantage: Utah State 43%-38% 

Red Zone All Scores: Advantage: Utah State 75%-73%

Red Zone TD’s Only: Advantage: Utah State 57%-41%

Individuals to Watch: Toledo’s Wide Receiver, Bernard Reedy 82 catches for 1057 yards and 6 TDs. He averages 6.78 catches per game with a 12.82 average per catch and 87.58 total yards per game! Utah State counters with their outstanding running back, Kerwynn Williams, who has rushed for 1277 yards this season and scored 12 TDs. Williams averages an impressive 6.39 yards per carry and averages 106.42 rushing yards per game!

Sully Says: The Mac is the strongest it has been in years, while the WAC is dissolving after this year, 2012! Several long time members bolted for the Mountain West Conference the past two years and the conference was going to lose more members to the Sun Belt Conference next year. As a result, league officials (school officials, presidents, & AD) determined that to try to continue in these circumstance made little to no sense. That said, giving the lack of strength in the WAC it is hard to determine exactly how good Utah State (10-2), San Jose State (10-2) & Louisiana Tech (9-3) actually are this season! However, when one looks outside the WAC, Utah State two losses are by a total of 5 points, Wisconsin (Big Ten Rose Bowl Rep), 16-14 & BYU (Who battled ND, a BCS National Champion finalists, late into the 4th quarter before falling 17-14) , 6-3 … Utah State has an impressive resume! The simple truth is.. Utah State is a solid to very good football team and will win this game but not cover the 10 point spread!

Posted in 2012 / 2013 Bowl Game, Ball State, MAC, Mountain West, Northern Illinois, Notre Dame, SWAC, Toledo, Utah, Utah State, Wisconsin |

Gildan New Mexico Bowl

Bowl History: The Bowl was established in 2006, the conference tie ins are … the PAC 12 & Mountain West … first game was played December 23, 2006… San Jose State beat New Mexico, 20-12 and last year’s game was won by Temple, who beat Wyoming, 37-15! Prior to 2011, the Bowl was simply known as the the New Mexico Bowl. Last year, 2011, Gildan (Clothing Manufacturer) became the official sponsor and thus the official name of the bowl …. Gildan New Mexico Bowl! The game is one of the earlist played bowls, always scheduled before Christmas. The Payout for each team is $750,000.00!

Teams: Arizona, Conference, PAC 12, Overall Record 7-5  Conference Record 4-5 ; Nevada, Conference, Mountain West, Overall Record 7-5,  Conference Record 4-4

Bowl Location: Albuquerque, New Mexico. The Bowl is played @ University Stadium (Capacity 39,224 … Highest Attendance 2006 … 34,111 …. Lowest Attandance …. 2008 …. 24,735) on the campus of the University of New Mexico.

Day, Date & Time: Saturday, 12/15/12, & 12:00 P.M. CST

Network: ESPN

Best Win(s): Arizona: Beat Oklahoma State, 59-38 & USC, 39-36; Nevada: @ California 31-24

Worst Losses: Arizona:  Oregon, 49-0 & UCLA 66-10; Nevada: South Florida, 32-31 & Air Force 48-31

Common Opponents: None!

Las Vegas Hotsheet Favorite: The game opened with Arizona giving Nevada 8 points and based on where the dollars have gone the line has moved to 9.5!

Offensive Team Data: Arizona; Total Yards, 522 YPG; Passing Yards, 292 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 230 YPG; Scoring Average 37 PPG, Turnovers, 2.08 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 44.4%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 76% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 60%

Offensive Team Data: Nevada; Total Yards, 503 YPG; Passing Yards, 243 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 260 YPG; Scoring Average 37 PPG, Turnovers, 1.50 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 53.1%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 82% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 71%

Defensive Team Data: Arizona; Total Yards, 480 YPG; Passing Yards, 290 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 190 YPG; Scoring Average 34 PPG, Turnovers, 1.92 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 43.2%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 82% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 68%

Defensive Team Data: Nevada; Total Yards, 431 YPG; Passing Yards, 218 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 213 YPG; Scoring Average 33 PPG, Turnovers, 1.25 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 47.2%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 86% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 61%

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take Arizona’s total yards on offense, add it to what Nevada gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Nevada’s total offense, add it to what Arizona gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards:  Advantage Nevada, 492 to 477….

Passing Yards: Advantage Nevada, 267 t0 255….

Rushing Yards: Advantage Nevada, 225 to 222….

Scoring: Advantage Nevada, 36 to 35….

Turnovers: Advantage Arizona, 1.66 to 1.71

3rd Down Conversions: Advantage Nevada, 48% to 46%

Red Zone All Scores: Advantage Nevada, 82% to 81%

Red Zone TD’s Only: Advantage Nevada, 70% to 61%

Individuals to Watch: Arizona: Ka’Deem Carey, the nations leading rusher; 1757 total yards, game average 146 rushing yards & yards per carry 6.39! Nevada: Stefphon Jefferson, the nation’s second leading rusher, 1703 total yards, 142 yards per game, & 4.99 yards per carry(Cool feature for the Gilden New Mexico Bowl …. top two rushers in the country on display)

Sully Says: Just not buying Nevada’s statistical dominance on the Sully’s College Football Page Game Simulator. As we always state; the Game Simulator provides important information on how each team’s numbers look when compared with one another. That said they should never be viewed in isolation! While the GS is an important peice of how Sully’s CFP determines a winner … the numbers must be considered along with other factors: Strength of the relative conferences, non conference opponents, home and away record, Quality wins / bad losses … etc…  Nevada plays in the Mountain West … Three teams tied at 7-1 for the Conference Championship ….  & Nevada lost to all three …. San Diego State (39-38 in OT); Fresno State (52-36), Boise State (27-21)!   The Wolf Pack also lost to Air Force, 48-31! No question ….  the PAC 12 is the better league and Arizona’s best wins are more impressive than Nevada’s (Oklahoma State & USC vs California, who is not bowl eligible and whose coach was fired) Neither one of these teams seem to be able to or are interested in playing much defense … but both teams can ring it up on offense! Sully’s CFP likes Arizona to win but not cover at 9 1/2!

 

 

Posted in 2012 / 2013 Bowl Game, Arizona, California, Oklahoma State, PAC 12, USC |

Navy vs Army

The first game between Army /Navy was played in 1880, with Navy emerging as the winner. They have played every year since, with the following 10 exceptions.  In 1893, following a Navy victory, an incident after the game almost led to a duel between a Rear Admiral and Brigadier General. As a result of that event, President Cleveland called a cabinet meeting, after which, the Secretary of the Navy, Hillary A. Herbert and Secretary of War, Daniel S. Lamont, issued orders that the respective Academies could play only home game. These orders effectively defused the situation, as the game was placed on hold (1894-1898) for five years . In 1909, a cadet, Eugene Byrne, died in a game against Harvard and as a result, Army cancelled the rest of their season. During WW I, the game was put on hold in 1917 and again, in 1918 and finally, in 1923-24, the games were cancelled when the Academies could not agree on eligibility rules for the players.

“The Event” was moved to Philadelphia in 1899 and has been played in the “City of Brotherly Love” (Greek Origins) for most of the 20th and 21st Centuries. The host sites include the following cities and number of games played in the respective venues: Philly: 83 games, 11 times in New York, Baltimore: 4 contests, East Rutherford: 4 games, Annapolis & West Point: 4 each, & Chicago, Pasadena, & Princeton each have hosted a game.

This weekend’s game marks the 112th meeting between the Acadamies, Navy leads the series 56 (wins) 49 (loses) and 7 (ties). Sadly, since 1963, the teams have entered their annual battle with both squads having winning records only twice, 1996 and again, in 2010. The days of this game having national championship implications or the teams being national powers have long since faded into history. High academic standards, potential NFL career opportunities, weight and height limits, and military commitment upon graduation have greatly diminished the talent pool for the Academies.

Navy has won this game 10 straight times and five of the past six have not been very close; 06, 26-14; 07, 38-3; 08, 34-0; 09, 17-3; & in 010, 31-17. That said, last year the game was 24-21 in the 4th Quarter, before Navy kicked a field goal to secure thew 27-21 win!  This year, Navy is bowl eligible for the eighth time time in nine years and has won 6 of its last 7 games. . Army has lost 5 of their last 6 games with only win in this stretch was, a  surprising, 41-21 drubbing of Air Force! This means that Army, with a W, could win the Commander – in – Chief’s Trpphy …. for the first time since 1996!

Las Vegas has made Navy a 7 point favorite and I, for one, hope they got this one wrong!

I was really happy that the NCAA agreed to move this game back a week. America needs to celebrate the young men and women, who are willing to make the commitment and sacrifice a military career demands. It is absolutely fitting that the last regular season college football game be played between Army & Navy and played on a weekend, when all other FBS programs are idle and, hopefully, honoring their gridiron peers!

Americans will / should always honor the participants in this game, …. period… no question! Yet, for it to remain one of sport’s greatest rivalries,…..  Army needs to stand up this year and put an end to this 10 year nose-bleed…. or sadly…. the rivalry may go the way of national championships and top ten rankings. Go Army!

Posted in Army, Navy |

FCS Championship: Round Three Match-Ups

Sam Houston State 9-3 / 6-1 @ Montana State 11-1 / 7-1:  http://sullyscollegefootballpage.com/Football_Stats/Team_Details.cfm Sam Houston had a bye in the first round and opened play last Saturday by outlasting Cal Pol, 18-16! The Bearcats (Sam Houston) were out-gained by the Mustangs (Cal Poly) , 387 / 241 …. but forced three turnovers and blocked a punt for a safety that turned the game in their favor! Montana State began the tourney in the second @ home against Stony Brook (Stony Brook won their first round game against Villanova 24-10). The Bobcats built a 16 to 3 fourth Quarter lead and held off a late Stony Brook comeback attempt! In this Saturday’s game … Sully’s CFP Game Simulator likes http://sullyscollegefootballpage.com/Football_Stats/Matchup.cfm … Sam Houston in 5 of the 8 statistical categories vs Montana State. These teams last played in 2009, a game won by Sam Houston, 49-13, @ home

Georgia Southern 9-3 / 6-2 @ Old Dominion 11-1 / 7-1: http://sullyscollegefootballpage.com/Football_Stats/Team_Details.cfm Georgia Southern took on Central Arkansas in the second of the Play-offs this past Week-end and found a way …. winning, 24-16. This game really was the Jerick McKinnon Show, as the Georgia Southern QB ran for 316 yards, scored two rushing TDs and passed for a third! Old Dominion took on Coastal Carolina, who beat Bethune-Cookman, 24-14, in a first round game and hammered them … 63-35 @ home! The Game Simulator says http://sullyscollegefootballpage.com/Football_Stats/Matchup.cfm … Old Dominion will outperform Georgia Southern in 6 of the 8 domains it uses to evaluate the teams! These teams played last year in the tournament a, 55-48, Georgia Southern victory.

Wofford 9-3 / 6-2 @ North Dakota State 11-1 /7-1:  http://sullyscollegefootballpage.com/Football_Stats/Team_Details.cfm Wofford beat New Hampshire, 23-7, to move into the third round where the defending champs, North Dakota State, awaits their coming! NDSU defeated South Dakota State (SDSU beat Eastern Illinois in the first round, 58-10, to advance into the second round) for the second time this season, 28-3, …… after the Jackrabbits took a 3-0 lead in the 1st Quarter, the Bison scored 28 unanswered points to seal the deal! Sully’s Game Simulator http://sullyscollegefootballpage.com/Football_Stats/Matchup.cfm …. likes … the defending champs in 6 of the 8 data areas it reviewed. These teams have not met in the past four years!

Illinois State 9-3 / 5-3 @ Eastern Washington 10-2 / 7-1  http://sullyscollegefootballpage.com/Football_Stats/Team_Details.cfm Illinois State blocked an extra point attempt, in OT, to defeat Appalachian State, 38-37, in the day’s most exciting game! Illinois State QB, Matt Brown, threw for five TD’s and 322 yards to lead the Redbirds past the Mountaineers. Meanwhile, Eastern Washington beat the last team to play a game in the first round of the tourney, Wagner (who beat Colgate, 31-20, last week-end) by the score of 29-19! Wagner, who had won 9 straight coming into the game, had a 19-14 lead late in the 3rd quarter, before Eastern Washington scored as time expired in the 3rd quarter …. to move ahead, 21-19! Sully’s CFP Game Simulator http://sullyscollegefootballpage.com/Football_Stats/Matchup.cfm … says…. Illinois State will out distance Eastern Washington in 5 of the 8 domains assessed! These teams have not met in the past four years!

Posted in Big Sky, Colonial Athletic Association, Illinois State, Missouri Valley, Montana State, South Dakota State, Southern Conference, Wofford |

FCS Championship: Second Round

Central Arkansas 9-2 / 6-1 @ Georgia Southern 8-3 / 6-2: Central Arkansas winner of the Southland Conference travel to Statesburo, Georgia to take on Georgia Southern, who finished in a three way tie atop the Southern Conference (SoCon). Sully’s CFP Game Simulator http://sullyscollegefootballpage.com/Football_Stats/Matchup.cfm likes Central Arkansas in this game in 5 of the 8 statistical categories assessed. That said … Georgia Southern is a triple option team which often means statistical data is irrelevant! The Eagles ran the ball effectively last year against Alabama, 302 yards and rushed for that exact amount of yardage vs Georgia this year! Central Arkansas challenged a BCS / SEC team as well, Ole Miss and played them fairly well … before losing 49-27. This is the  Bears second game of the play-off’s … having beat Eastern Illinois, Champion of the Ohio Valley, 48-30, in the first round!   

Coastal Carolina 8-4 / 5-1 @ Old Dominion 10-1 / 7-1: Coastal Carolina, which finished in a three way tie atop the Big South Conference, prepares to take on Old Dominion, winner’s of the Colonial Athletic Association! Sully’s CFP Game Simulator http://sullyscollegefootballpage.com/Football_Stats/Matchup.cfm likes the O D Monarchs in this game in 6 of the 8 data areas evaluated in comparing the teams. Old Dominion’s only loss of the season was to Villanova, 38-13, on October 13th! While Coastal Carolina took on one FBS opponent, Toledo, from the MAC, a 38-28 loss, they also lost two non-conference games to Eastern Kentucky, 35-17, from the Ohio Valley, & the SoCon’s Appalachian State, 55-14. CCU lost one conference game to Stony Brook, 27-21! For the Chanticleers to be competitive in this game they must be able to run the ball and keep the high-powered Monarch Offense on the sideline! This second round game is the 2nd game for the Chanticleers in the tourney, they beat MEAC Champ, Bethune-Cookman, 24-14, in tne first round!

Illionoi State 8-2 / 5-3 @ Applachian State 8-3 / 6-2: Illinois State finished tied for 3rd place in the Missouri Valley with two other teams, while Appalachian State finished in a three way tie for the SoCon (Southern Conference) Championship! Sully’s CFP Game Simulator says ….http://sullyscollegefootballpage.com/Football_Stats/Matchup.cfm the ISU Redbirds in a statistical rout, 8 to 1! While I did watch ISU beat Eastern Michigan, 31-14 (an FBS team from the MAC) and do they have a very good defense …. I have reservations about their ability to win this game … let alone dominate Appalachian State! AP State lost to an FBS team, East Carolina, 35-13, but won their other two non-conference games against the Big Sky’s, Montana, 35-27 & the Big South’s, Coastal Carolina, 55-14! This is both the ISU Redbirds & the Mountaineers of Appalachian State’s first game of the Tournament… as the recieved 1st round byes!

New Hanpshire 8-3 / 6-2 @ Wofford 8-3 / 6-2: New Hampshire ended their season in a four way tie for second place in the Colonial Athletic Association, while Wofford finished in a three way tie atop the SoCon! Sully’s Game Simulator http://sullyscollegefootballpage.com/Football_Stats/Matchup.cfm likes Wofford in 7 of the 8 statistical domains it assessed when comparing these teams. The conferences (Southern & Colonial) that are generally regarded as the two best in the FCS Football! New Hampshire won its two FCS non-conference games against the Patriot League’s Holy Cross, 38-17 & the Northest’s Central Connecticut, 43-10 …. but were hammered by their lone BCS / Big Ten opponent, Minnesota, 44-7! While Wofford played very well against, BCS / SEC South Carolina on November 24, before losing 24-7!  

South Dakota State 9-3 / 6-2 @ North Dakota State 10-1 / 7-1: North Dakota State is the defending FCS Champion and won the Missouri Valley this season, while South Dakota State finsihed alone in 2nd place in the MVC! These teams played on November 10, a 20 to 17 affair won by North Dakota State. The Game Simulator  http://sullyscollegefootballpage.com/Football_Stats/Matchup.cfmlike NDSU over SDSU in all 8 of the Statistical Categories. While I doubt that … the game is being played @ North Dakota State and I do like them to win and move on to Round Three of the Championship! South Dakota State did step up an play an BCS opponent, Kansas, the Jackrabits lost, 31-17 … while North Dakota State did not play a FBS team this season!

Cal Poly 9-2 / 7-1 @ Sam Houston 8-3 / 6-1: Cal Poly tied Eastern Washington & Montana State for the Big Sky Conference Championship in their first year in the League! Sam Houston State, who lost the FCS Championship Game a year ago to North Dakota State, 17-6, finished league play @ 6-1, but lost to Central Arkansas, 24-20, also 6-1, and thus lost the tie breaker for 1st place in the Southland Conference! The Simulator Says….  http://sullyscollegefootballpage.com/Football_Stats/Matchup.cfmSam Houston will outperform Cal Poly in 6 of the 8 statistical areas! These teams are both very athletic and this may be the most entertaining game of the day! Sam Houston lost to Baylor, 48-27, and Texas A&M, 47-28, both FBS, BCS, & Big 12 affiliates! Cal Poly… did not play any FBS teams in 2012!  

Wagner 9-3 / 7-1 @ Eastern Washington 9-2 / 7-1: Wagner won the Northeast Conference Championship by virtue of their win, 30-0, over Albany University, who was also 7-1 in conference play. While Eastern Washington finished the season in a three way tie for first place in the Big Sky! Sully’s CFP Game Simulator says http://sullyscollegefootballpage.com/Football_Stats/Matchup.cfm this game statistically is a draw … with both teams performing better than their counterpart in four of the eight categories! The Big Sky is generally considered to be one of the best FCS conferences while the Northeast Conference would  be considered to be in the mid to lower tier! Eastern Washington battled the PAC 12’s, Washington State to a 24-20 loss but beat the WAC’s Idaho, 23-3! While Wagner lost to the Sun Belt’s, Florida Atlantic, 7-3, they did win their first round game vs the Patriot League’s Champ, Colgate, 31-20!

Stony Brook 10-2 / 5-1 @ Montana State 10-1 / 7-1: Stony Brook tied Coastal Carolina & Liberty for the Big South Championship. While, Montana State finished its season in a three way tie for the Big Sky Championship with Cal Poly & Eastern Washington! The Simulator http://sullyscollegefootballpage.com/Football_Stats/Matchup.cfm likes Stony Brook in 7 of the 8 statistical domains when compared to Montana State. Stony Brook did beat an FBS team … Army, 23-3 and played a BCS team, Syracuse close, 28-17! While Montana State did not play an opponent from the FBS ranks!

 

Posted in Alabama, Big Sky, Big South, Big Ten, Colonial Athletic Association, Georgia, Kansas, MAC, MEAC, Minnesota, Missouri Valley, Montana, Montana State, Mountain West, Northeast Conference, Ohio Valley, Ole Miss, Patriot League, Sam Houston State, South Carolina, Southern Conference, Southland Conference, Sun Belt, Syracuse, Toledo, Wyoming |

Sully’s Six Pack of Winners

Northern Illinois 11-1 / 8-0  -6.5  vs Kent State 11-1 / 8-0: These two teams come into this game having won a combined 21 straight games … NIU 11 and Kent 10! Both teams lost to a BCS affiliate … The Huskies lost to Iowa 18-17 on the opening week-end of the season and the Golden Flashes lost to Kentucky on September 8th, 47-17! Neither team has experienced a loss since early in September! Northern is the stronger team … when one reviews common opponents ….  NIU beat Buffalo, 45 -3, @ home while Kent beat them, 23-7, @ Buffalo…. Kent State beat Ball State, 45-43, @ Home …. NIU beat B-State, 35-23, on the road & The Huskies beat Akron, 37-7, @ Akron … while The Flashes beat the Zips, 35 -24, @ Home! The MAC Championship Game is played at a Ford’s Field in Detroit! Sully Says …Give the 6.5 and take NIU!

Oklahoma 9-2 / 7-1  -6.5 @ TCU 7-4 / 4-4: A win in this game gives Oklahoma a chance to play in the Sugar Bowl … a loss & they will need help from their “good buddy” Texas @ Kansas State …. given that …. Texas and Mac may lose on purpose… Just kidding. The Sooners control their own fate and I look for them to play their best game of the year vs the Frogs! TCU did just beat Texas, 20-13, last week …an emotional win for them in the Lone Star State …while the Sooners survived their own in-state battle vs Oklahoma State, 51-48, in OT!  Oh yeah … Oklahoma pounded Texas 63-21… & TCU lost to the Pokes 36-14 on Oct. 27th! Sully Says …Take Oklahoma & give TCU the 6.5!

Alabama 11-1 / 7-1  -7 vs Georgia 11-1/ 7-1: These teams have played twice in the past six years, 2007 Georgia beat Alabama, @ Bama, 26-23 in OT and in 2008, The Tide tamed the Dawgs, in Athens, 41-30! Sully’s CFP Game Simulator … a statistical comparison of team averages likes the Crimison Tide in 7 of the 8 categories assessed! http://sullyscollegefootballpage.com/Football_Stats/Matchup.cfm Aaron Murray, Georgia QB, has had a history of struggling in big games and they do not get much bigger than this game! Look for the Bama’s O-line to step up … big time … against this over-hyped Georgia D (John Jenkins D-end, Jarvis Jones LB, & Bacarri Rambe Safety … all NFL ready) They are … but compare how these “stars’ have led / performed as a team …. compared to Bama’s (with less talent) team oriented scheme …. and you’ll see that the Tide’s defense has outperformed Georgia’s! Sully Says, Take Bama and give Georgia the 7!

Wisconsin 7-5 / 4-4 vs Nebraska 10-2 / 7-1 -3: The Badgers are limping into this game … having lost 3 of their last 4 games …. all of the losses have been in overtime (Michigan State 16-13, Ohio State 21-14, & Penn State 24-21). While Nebraska had to continue to win (have won 6 games in a row) with Michigan was breathing down the neck! The Huskers beat Wisconsin earlier in the season, 30-27, in a game that the Badgers had a 27-10 lead early in the 3rd quarter! Rex Burkhead is back, Ameer Abdullah is playing well, Martinez is … well … Martinez and the Nebraska defense is playing well… giving up 21 points in their last 2 games! http://sullyscollegefootballpage.com/Football_Stats/Matchup.cfm Sully’s CFP Game Simulator has Nebraska dominating Wisconsin in 6 of the 8 domains! Sully Says….Take the Huskers and give the Badgers the three!

South Alabama 2-10 / 1-7  @ Hawaii 2-9 / 1-7 -6: An epic battle looms here … South Alabama vs Hawaii! That said, USA is in its first full year of FBS competition and as expected … has struggled…. mightly! Hawaii is ably led by Norm Chow and is coming off a big win vs UNLV, 48 to 10. I am amazed that S-Bama is getting only 6 … Sully Says… Take the Islands and head to the Bank!

Georgia Tech 6-6 / 5-3 vs Florida State 10-2 / 7-1 -14: Florida State has Oranges in its future if it takes care of business came Saturday. Any chance they had for a berth into the BCS National Championship (while slim) went south with their, 37-26, loss to Florida! A loss to Tech and they will lose any shot at playing in a BCS Bowl… an automatic bid to play in the Orange Bowl awaits the winner of this game! The Noles are out to prove something this weekend (granted… it is a 6-6 G-Tech team and even a lopsided win … will mean little… accept to them) that they let slip away a week ago! Do not look for them to take their foot off the gas pedal in this one! Sully Says… Take the Seminoles and give the 14 to what is sure to be a Rambling Wreck! 

Posted in ACC, Alabama, Big 12, Big Ten, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Kent State, MAC, Nebraska, Northern Illinois, Oklahoma, SEC, TCU, Wisconsin |

Bowl Game Projections are up on Site

http://sullyscollegefootballpage.com/Football_Stats/Bowl_Listings.cfm

 

Posted in AAC, ACC, Air Force, Alabama, Arizona, Arizona State, Arkansas State, Ball State, Baylor, Big 12, Big Ten, Boise State, C-USA, Cincinnati, Clemson, Duke, Florida, Florida State, Fresno State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas State, Kent State, Louisiana, LSU, MAC, Marshall, Michigan, Michigan State, Middle Tennessee, Minnesota, Mississippi State, Mountain West, Navy, NC State, Nebraska, Nevada, Northern Illinois, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Ole Miss, Oregon, Oregon State, PAC 12, Purdue, San Diego State, SEC, South Carolina, Stanford, Sun Belt, SWAC, Syracuse, TCU, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, UCLA, USC, Utah State, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin |

Championship Week: MAC & C-USA

MAC Northern Illinois 11-1 / 8-0 vv Kent State 11-1 / 8-0: This is the best season the Mac has had in years. Other than the SEC Championship …. Alabama vs Georgia … this may well be the next best Conference Championship Game! Northern Illinois lost its opener in Iowa City to the Hawks, 18-17 and then won 11 in a row! Meanwhile, Kent State lost its second game of the year @ Kentucky and then proceeded to win 10 straight games! Sully’s CFP Game Simulator says …. NIU dominates the Golden Flashes statistically 7-1: 1) Total Yards: 434 to 376; 2) Passing Offense: 246 to 197; 3) Rushing Offense: 187 to 180; 4) Scoring 33 to 26; 5) 3rd Down Conversion Percentage: 42% to 39%; 6) Red Zone All Scores Percentage: 81% to 66%; & Red Zone TD’s Only: 70% to 38%! While the lone area that Kent State is better statistically than the Huskies is: Turnovers 1.55 to 2.09! These teams met last year with NIU winning 40-10. IF one of these teams is ranked 16th or better in the final BCS Poll and are ahead of an Automatic Qualifier (one, if not both, will be ranked higher than the Big East Champ) they will have earned a spot in a BCS Bowl…. How cool is that for the MAC!!! This should be interesting … stay tuned!!

C-USA Central Florida 9-3 / 7-1 @ Tulsa 9-3 / 7-1: This may be the most evenly matched championship game of 2012! Sully’s CFP Game Simulator has the teams spliting the eight statistical categories 4 apiece: Central Florida out-performs Tulsa in: Passing Offense: 230 to 225; Scoring: 30 to 29; Turnovers: 1.55 to 1.88; & 3rd Down Conversion Percentage: 42% to 38% While Tulsa has an edge statistically in: Total Offense: 419 to 383; Rushing Offense 195 to 151; Red Zone All Scores Percentage: 87% to 76%; & Red Zone TD’s Only Percentage: 68% to 59%! These teams met on November 17th and Sully’s CFP felt then that the games was to close to call … we were right …  Tulsa won 23-21, largely do to their defense not allowing UCF to run the ball … 66 total yards rushing! UCF countered by forcing two turnovers and not turning it back to the Hurricanes …. Trunovers always a factor in close or any game for that matter!! This may well be the most competive game of the day! This will mark the third time in eight years these teams have met in C-USA Championship game … the most meetings for any FBS conference teams in that time frame! Sadly, this will not happen again as UCF is leaving C-USA for the Big East next season!

Posted in C-USA, Kent State, MAC, Marshall, Northern Illinois, Tulsa, UCF |

Championship Week: ACC & Pac 12

ACC Florida State 10-2 / 7-1 vs Georgia Tech 6-6 / 5-2: These teams did not play in the regular season, in fact, the last time they met was October 10, 2009, a wild affair won by the Rambling Wreck, 49-44! In that game, FSU was unable to contain Tech’s triple option as the Yellow Jackets rushed for 401 yards! In looking at this year’s game, the Noles seem to have the clear advantage … Florida State’s name was being tossed around as a possible candidate for the BCS National Championship Game (if they beat Florida … the Seminoles lost …  37-26 & other things happened … they did not) while G-Tech stumbled into the post season with a 6-6 record! Sully’s CFP Game Simulator says … Florida State will out distance Georgia Tech in 6 of the 8 categories assessed … 1) Total Offense: 435 to 349; 2) Passing Offense: 261 to 145; 3) Scoring: 37 to 26; 4) 3rd Down Conversion Percentage: 44% to 38%; 5) Red Zone Scoring 86% to 83%; & 6) Red Zone TD’s Percentage: 64% to 61%! While G-Tech will out-perform FSU in two areas: 1) Rushing offense: 204 to 174 & 2) Turnover Margin: 1.42 to 1.75! On paper… this game appears to be a mismatch … but … you never really know … that’s why we play the game! The site for the ACC Championship Contest will be … Bank of America Stadium …. in Charlotte, North Carolina

UCLA 9-3 / 6-3 @ Stanford 10-2 / 8-1: The PAC 12 team with the best conference record or that wins the tie-breaker gets to host the championship game. As a result, this year’s site will be Stanford Stadium … as they clearly have the better record! These teams just played last week, Stanford won the game with relative ease, 35-17, at the Rose Bowl (UCLA’s home field)! Sully’s CFP Game Simulator says …  Stanford will win the statistical battle 5 to 3 in the Eight Categories Assessed (1. Total Yards, 2. Passing Yards, 3. Rushing Yards, 4. Scoring, 5. Turnovers, 6. 3rd Down Conversions, 7. Red Zone All Scores; 8. Red Zone Touchdowns only) : 1) Rushing Yards: 163 to 134; 2) Scoring 28 to 27; 3) Turnovers: 1.96 to 2.04; 4) Red Zone Scoring Percentage: 85% to 81%, & 5) Red Zone TD Percentage: 62% to 53%. While UCLA will prevail in 3 categories: 1) Total Yards: 401 to 399; 2) Passing Yards: 267 to 237; & 3) Turnovers: 1.96 to 2.04! While Stanford has the statistical edge and won last week, 35-17 … don’t be surprised if this game is a one score affair in the 4th Quarter!

 

Posted in ACC, Florida State, Georgia Tech, PAC 12, Stanford, UCLA |

Championship Week: SEC & Big Ten

SEC …. Georgia 11-1  / 7-1 vs Alabama 11-1 / 7-1: Sully’s CFP Game Simulator (Head to Head on the Site … it compares a team’s offensive average in a specific area to the other teams defensive average in the same category … then flips the process … the team with the higher number will get the point … except for turnovers … where the lower number prevails) says Bama will outperform the Dawgs in 7 of the 8 statistical categories it assess’: 1) the Tide will out gain the Bulldogs 386 to 348; 2) rush for more yards 191 to 132; 3) outscore Georgia 29-23; 4) win the turnover battle 1.4 to 1.9; 5) generate a higher 3rd down conversion rate 41% to 40%; 6) have a higher Red Zone scoring percentage 85 to 70; 7) And finally score more TD’s when in the Red Zone 62% to 60%! The lone area that the Bulldogs will surpass the Tide is passing yards, 217 to 196! Georgia seems to have an edge on defense according to the talking heads on ESPN…. with several players who willl play on Sunday …  D-End John Jenkins, LB Jarvis Jones, & Safety Bacarri Rambo… That said, Bama’s D is ranked higher is several of the meaningful defensive categories … Bama gives up 234 Total Yards to Georgia’s 339; Alabama allows 9 points per game to the Dawgs 18, Alabama allows 77 rushing yards to the Bulldogs 168 ….  Bama has forced more turnovers … 27 to 22 & finally Bama defense is better on 3rd down and in the Red Zone … so why is Georgia better on D ESPN? The truth is … they may have better players at some positions … but they are not a better defensive unit! I, as one of many, am looking forward to this game… as the winner will move on to play ND in the BCS National Championship Game and the loser will head for the Capital One Bowl!

Big Ten …. Nebraska 10-2 / 7-1 & Wisconsin 7-5 / 4-4: I have to say this game reminds me of last year’s PAC 12 final … where UCLA got into the game against Oregon … because USC was not eligible to play for the PAC 12 Championship. No question that the Big Ten’s best team is home for the holidays ….. Ohio State ……  hammered Nebraska, 63-38 and beat the Badgers in OT, 21-14! But like USC from a year ago … OSU is not eligible to participate in post-season play! Sully’s CFP Game Simulator says … Nebraska will out-perform the Badgers in 6 of the 8 categories … 1) Total Yards: 384 to 349; 2) Passing Offense: 202 to 160; 3) Scoring: 27 to 26; 4) 3rd Down Conversions Percentage: 38% to 33%; 5) Red Zone Scoring Percentage: 88% to 80%; & 6) Red Zone Touchdown Percentage: 67% to 55%! While Wisconsin will dominate in two… 1) Rushing Offense: 190 to 182 & 2) Turnovers: 1.45 to 1.57…. All that said … remember … Michigan State beat the Badgers, October 27th, in the regular season in Spartan Stadium, 37-31, last year … but lost to Wisconsin, December 3rd, @ Indianapolis’ Lucas Oil Stadium, in the Big Ten Championship Game, 42-39! The Huskers beat the Badgers in Lincoln, 30-27 … so as former Yankee great, Yogi Berra used to say .. is this deja vu … all over again? This game should be a slug-fest!

Posted in Alabama, Big Ten, Georgia, Michigan State, Nebraska, Ohio State, SEC, Wisconsin |