Famous Idaho Potato Bowl 2013

Bowl History: This Bowl began in 1997, (formally known as the Humanitarian Bowl) Conference tie-ins … A MWC squad vs a team from the MAC. Cincinnati beat Utah State in the Bowl’s inaugural game, 35-19, while the defending champion, Utah State, beat Toledo, 41-15, in 2012 rendition of pass the Potato. Bowl Payout … $750,000.00 to both teams!

Teams: Buffalo; Regular Season 8-4 / MAC Conference Record 6-2 (tied for 2nd in the East Division of the MAC) & 4-1 in the East Division vs San Diego State; Regular Season Record 7-5 / MWC Conference Record 6-2, & 3-2 in the West Division!

Bowl Location: The game is played annually in Boise, Idaho @ Bronco Stadium on the campus of Boise State University! Stadium capacity is 33,500 … Highest attandence, 2002, 30,446 … Boise state beat Iowa State, 34-16… Lowest attandance, 1997, 16,289, when Cincinnati beat Utah State, 35-19!

Day, Date & Time: Saturday, 12/21/2013 @ 4:30 CST!

Network: ESPN

Best Win(s): Buffalo; beat Ohio (7-5), 30-3; San Diego State; Boise State 34-31 in OT

Worst Losses: Buffalo: Baylor 70-13; San Diego State; Eastern Illinois 40-19

Common Opponents: Ohio State…. Buffalo lost 40-20 & SDSU lost 42-7

Las Vegas Hotsheet Favorite: Buffalo -1

Offensive Team Data: San Diego State; Total Yards,  422 YPG; Passing Yards,  262 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  160 YPG; Scoring Average,  28 PPG,  Turnovers,  2.33 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 40.1%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 71% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 46%

Offensive Team Data: Buffalo; Total Yards,  402 YPG; Passing Yards, 230 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 172 YPG; Scoring Average  31 PPG, Turnovers,  1 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 40.6%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 74% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 68%

Defensive Team Data: San Diego State; Total Yards,  393 YPG; Passing Yards,  260 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  133 YPG; Scoring Average,  32 PPG, Turnovers,  1.33 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 39.1%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 95% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 85%

Defensive Team Data: ; Total Yards,  376 YPG; Passing Yards,  217 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  160 YPG; Scoring Average,  22 PPG, Turnovers,  2.33 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 33.7%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 72% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 50%

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take Arizona’s total yards on offense, add it to what Nevada gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Nevada’s total offense, add it to what Arizona gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards:  Advantage, San Diego State …. 399 to 398

Passing Yards: Advantage, Buffalo …. 245 to 240

Rushing Yards: Advantage, san Diego State …. 160 to 153

Scoring: Advantage, Buffalo …. 32 to 25

Turnovers: Advantage, Buffalo … 1.17 to 2.33

3rd Down Conversions: Advantage, Buffalo …  39.9% to 36.9%

Red Zone All Scores: Advantage, Buffalo …  84.5% to 71.5%

Red Zone TD’s Only: Advantage, Buffalo … 76.5% to 48%

Individuals to Watch: Buffalo: QB Joe Licata, 2628 passing yards, 21 TD’s & 7 INT’s & RB Brander Oliver … 1421 yards rushing & 15 TD’s; SDSU: QB Quinn Kaehler … 2796 Passing yards, 27 TD’s, & 9 INT’s & RB Adam Muema 1015 rushing yards & 12 TD’s

Sully Says: Buffalo!!! The MWC is slightly stronger than the MAC top to bottom … but not so much this year … with Boise State being down and Fresno being indifference to playing defense (San Jose State putting 62 on them recently) This is a pick em game and the numbers favor Buffalo!