The P-12 is in a fist fight with Covid-19, their championship game has gone from USC 5-0 vs Washington 3-1, to the Trojans vs Oregon 3-2! The Huskies have fallen victim to a Covid outbreak and were/are unable to field a team in last week’s scheduled game @ Oregon or this week’s P-12 Championship Game.
USC 5-0 / 5-0 vs Oregon 3-2 / 3-2 (the record listed first is the overall record & listed 2nd is the conference record). It should be noted, that the PAC 12 played a closed schedule (conference games only in 2020).
The Vegas Hot$heets have not listed this game as of Tuesday afternoon. Check the web address listed below for more current information on favorites & betting lines!
Just in, USC -3.5. Interestingly, the Trojans were listed as a 7 point favorite over Washington, who actually won the North Division!
http://www.vegashotsheet.com/LiveLines-NCAA.html
The Trojan / Duck game will be played on Friday night, @ 7:00 / on the FOX Network, at the Los Angles Coliseum!
The teams have played 7 times since 2009, with Oregon owning a 5 to 2 edge in wins! In the Ducks 5 victories, they have whipped the Trojans by an average of 22 points ( 47-20 in 2009, 53-32 in 2010, 62-51 in 2012, 48-28 in 2015, & 56-24 last year)! That said, SC has beaten the Ducks only twice since 2009, in 2011, 38-35 & in 2016, 45-20. Oregon has outscored USC in those 5 wins by 111 points, while SC has outscored the Ducks by 28 points in their 2 Triumphs or an average margin of victory of 14 points! .
Sully’s College Football Page’s Game Simulator likes the Ducks in 5 of the 8 categories assessed in Head to Head competition.
Here is how the Head to Head Simulator works, it will take the Trojan Total Offense and add it to the Ducks Total Defense, add the those numbers to get a total, and then divide by 2 to get a mean (average). It then takes Oregon’s Total Offense and adds it to SC’s Total Defense, gets a total, and then divides to get another mean. The team with the greater # get the point.
http://sullyscollegefootballpage.com/Football_Stats/Matchup.cfm
In this case, the site predicts that Oregon will produce 431 yards of offense vs SC’s D, while USC will generate 424 yards of offense vs Oregon’s defense! As a result, Oregon get the point!
The site will follow this algorithm in the 7 other categories, (Passing, Rushing, Scoring, Turnovers, 3rd down conversions, Red Zone Scoring, & Red Zone TD’s (the 2nd RZ analysis, does not include FG’s) and, of course, the fore mentioned, Total Offense! Please note: the lower number wins in the Turnover battle (fewer is better)!
The Simulator, by the numbers, has mathematically determined that the Ducks will prevail in 5 of the 8 categories assessed in this game (Rushing, 173 vs 146.5; Scoring, 31.5 to 29.5; 3rd Down Conversions, 44.25% vs 42.45%; Red Zone Scores, 88.5 to 75.5 & RZ TD’s 58% to 53.5%).
I must say, in the 11 years I have used the Simulator, it becomes more accurate as the season goes on (more data) and rarely have I seen the simulator pick a mathematical winner that Vegas has not listed as the favorite! However, this is not the case this time, USC was just listed on the Vegas Hot$heets, as a 3.5 favorite. I’m not buying it!
Keep in mind, SCFP Simulator is not designed to factor in injuries, strength of schedule, or home field advantage. So while it is accurate in projecting a winner (by the numbers), it is not equipped to and, in fact, is wholly inadequate to deal with point spreads!
The Game Simulator says: the Ducks win and I’m on board, based on my history with the simulator this late in the season. Yet, as far as the point spread goes, you are on your own. If you choose to use the Simulator ATS (Against The Spread) as I have, remember, it is only one element, of many, to chose a winner when factoring in ‘point give a ways’!
And as Always, Enjoy the games!
Share on Twitter
Share on Facebook
Subscribe