Raycon Media Camellia Bowl

Bowl History: This bowl was first played on December 20, 2014, in Montgomery, Alabama, in the Cramton Bowl. The Bowl was 1st announced in August of 2013 by representatives of Raycon Media, a major player in the TV industry in the Southeastern U.S. The Bowl is to pit teams from the MAC & SBC conferences against one another! In the first game Bowling Green beat South Alabama, 33-28 and last year the SBC rep won, Appalachian State State beat Ohio, 31-29! Two great games in the first two years, one a MAC win and the other won by the Sun Belt!

Teams: Appalachian State (SBC) vs Toledo (MAC)

Bowl Location: Cramton Bowl, Montgomery, Alabama

Day, Date & Time: Saturday, December 20, 2016, @ 4:30 CST

Network: ESPN

Best Win(s): Appalachian State’s best performance was actually played in a loss to Tennessee in OT, 20-13. Toledo beat the SBC Co-champion Arkansas State, 31-10!

Worst Losses: Appalachian State loss to Miami, FL, 45-10, a game that they were non-competitive in from start to finish. Toledo’s loss to Ohio, 31-26, a game they should have won.

Common Opponents: Akron: Toledo beat Akron, 48-17 @ Akron, while App State beat Akron, also on the road, 45-38!

Las Vegas Hotsheet Favorite: Toledo -1

Offensive Team Data: Toledo ; Total Yards, 530 YPG; Passing Yards, 329 YPG; Rushing Yards, 201 YPG; Scoring Average, 39 PPG, Turnovers, 1.17 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 52.4%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 93% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 72%

Offensive Team Data: Appalachian State; Total Yards, 430 YPG; Passing Yards, 184 YPG; Rushing Yards, 246 YPG; Scoring Average 29 PPG, Turnovers, 1.08 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 32.7%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 88% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 58%

Defensive Team Data: Toledo ; Total Yards, 395 YPG; Passing Yards, 229 YPG; Rushing Yards, 166 YPG; Scoring Average, 25 PPG, Turnovers, .83 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 33.9%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 86% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 56%

Defensive Team Data: Appalachian State; Total Yards, 327 YPG; Passing Yards, 201 YPG; Rushing Yards, 126 YPG; Scoring Average, 17 PPG, Turnovers, 1.75 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 33.1%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 73% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 48%

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take Appalachian State’s total yards on offense, add it to what Toledo gives up on defense, … get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Toledo’s total offense, add it to what Appalachian State gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2 to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed! That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards: Advantage, Toledo 428.5 to 412.5

Passing Yards: Advantage, Toledo 265 to 206.5

Rushing Yards: Advantage, Appalachian State 206 to 165.5

Scoring: Advantage, Toledo 28 to 27

Turnovers: Advantage, Appalachian State .995 to 1.46

3rd Down Conversions: Advantage, Toledo 42.75% to 33.3%

Red Zone All Scores: Advantage, Appalachian State 87% to 83%

Red Zone TD’s Only: Advantage, Toledo 60% to 57%

Results of the Game Simulator: Toledo will outperform Appalachian State in 5 of the 8 categories assessed!

Individuals to Watch: Toledo’s QB, Logan Woodside, is 7th in the country with 3,882 passing yards. Appalachian State RB, Jalin Moore, has rushed for 1367 yards 13th best in the nation!

Sully Says: The MAC is the stronger conference. Toledo is probably the MAC’s second best team behind Western Michigan, although they did lose to Ohio, the East Division winner. Appalachian State tied for the SBC Title with Arkansas State! Appalachian State did not plat Arkansas State in the regular season. App. State did lose to Troy, 28-24, the 3rd best team in the conference, while Arkansas State hammered The Men of Troy, 35-3. Toledo wins a close game, the single point is a non-factor in the outcome as Toledo wins by a FG!