Sully's Big Blog! Commentary on College Football, Weekly Games, And Strange Statistics!

Texas Bowl: Minnesota vs Syracuse 2013

Bowl History: This bowl is not to be confused with the current Belk Bowl  (formally known as the Meineke Car Care Bowl … which is played in Memphis, Tennessee). The official name of this event is the Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas! There have been two other bowls played in Houston; the Houston Bowl, 2000 to 2005 & the Bluebonnet Bowl, played from 1959 to 1987. The current Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas is not an extension of either of these bowls and traces its origins to 2006! The first game in this bowl series was played between Rutgers & Kansas State, won by Rutgers, 37 to 10, on December 28, 2006! Last year’s bowl game champion …  was/is Texas A&M, who stopped Northwestern, 33-22, on December 31, 2011! The conference tie-ins are Big 12 / Big Ten and the bowl payout is $1,700,000.00 per team!

Teams: Minnesota: Conference Affiliation: Big Ten; Overall Record 8-4, Conference Record 4-4, & Leaders Division 2-3….  vs ….   Syracuse:  Conference Affiliation: AAC; Overall Record 6-6 & Conference Record 4-4, & Atlantic Division Record 4-2!

Bowl Location: The Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas is played in Houston, Texas! The hosting arena is Reliant Stadium, the home field for the NFL’s, Houston Texans! Reliant Stadium has a has a seating capacity of 71,054 & last year’s game (2012), played between Texas Tech & Minnesota … won by TT 34-31 …. drew a crowd 50,386.

Day, Date & Time: Friday, 12/27/2013 @ 5:00 p.m. CST

Network: ESPN

Best Win(s): Minnesota beat Nebraska 34-23 & PSU 24-10; Syracuse: beat BC 34-31 & Maryland 20-3!

Worst Losses: Minnesota: Michigan 42-13; Syracuse: Georgia Tech 56-0 & Northwestern 48-27

Common Opponents: Penn State & Northwestern … Minnesota beat both of these teams ( NW 20-17 & PSU 24-10), while Syracuse lost to both of them (NW 48-27 & PSU 23-17)

Las Vegas Hotsheet Favorite: Minnesota -4

Offensive Team Data: ; Total Yards,  343 YPG; Passing Yards,  142 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  201 YPG; Scoring Average,  27 PPG, Turnovers,  1.25 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 41.8%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 95% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 73%

Offensive Team Data: ; Total Yards,  375 YPG; Passing Yards, 181 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 194 YPG; Scoring Average  23 PPG, Turnovers,  1.58 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 37.8%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 84% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 68%

Defensive Team Data: ; Total Yards,  372 YPG; Passing Yards,  217 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  156 YPG; Scoring Average,  22 PPG, Turnovers,  1.5 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 35.6%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 74% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 50%

Defensive Team Data: ; Total Yards,  370 YPG; Passing Yards,  230 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  140 YPG; Scoring Average,  26 PPG, Turnovers,  2.08 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 32.2%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 81% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 50%

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take Minnesota’s total yards on offense, add it to what Syracuse gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Syracuse’s total offense, add it to what Minnesota gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards:  Advantage, Syracuse …. 374 to 357

Passing Yards: AdvantageSyracuse …. 199 to 186

Rushing Yards: AdvantageSyracuse …. 175 to 171

Scoring: Advantage, Minnesota …. 27 to 23

Turnovers: AdvantageSyracuse  … 1.54 to 1.67

3rd Down Conversions: Advantage, Minnesota … 37% to 36.7%

Red Zone All Scores: AdvantageMinnesota … 88% to 79%

Red Zone TD’s Only: AdvantageMinnesota … 62% to 59%

Individuals to Watch: Minnesota: QB: Phillip Nelson 1288 Passing Yards, 9 TD’s & 6 INT’s & RB Davis Cabb 1111 rushing yards & 7 TD’s! Syracuse: QB Terrel Hunt 1450 passing yards, 10 TD’d & 8 INT’s & RB Jerome Smith 840 yards rushing & 11TD’s!

Sully Says: Minnesota is not only better against common opponents (PSU & Northwestern) the Gophers have won the last two times these teams met, 2009, 23-20 & 2012, 17-10! Minnesota wins and covers the 4 points!

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