Northwestern 6-1 / 6-1 vs Ohio State 5-0 / 5-0, TV: 11:00 / FOX; Favorite: Ohio State – 19.5
This is the largest point spread (19.5) in any of the nine conference championship games being played in 2020. Since 2009, the Cats and Bucks have played 4 times and the Bucks have won all 4 (2013, 40-30; 2016, 24-20; 2018, 45-24; & in 2019, 52-3)!
http://www.vegashotsheet.com/LiveLines-NCAA.html
In 2020, the Buckeyes & Wildcats have had 2 common opponents; Nebraska & Michigan State. NW beat Nebraska, 21-13, while Brutus hammered the Huskers, 52-17. OSU then blasted MSU, 52-12, the Cats, not so much, they lost to the Spartans, 29-20!
Northwestern won 6 games in 2020, with an average margin of victory of 14 points. Their most impressive victory was, @ home, vs Maryland, 43-3! Ohio State scored 117 more point than their opponents in 5 games during the 2020 season, with an average margin of victory of 23. 4 points.
In 2020, the B-10 had 4 teams with winning records ( OSU, 5-0; NW 6-1; Indiana; 6-1; & Iowa, 6-2) The Wildcats beat the Hawks, 21-20 & the Bucks beat the Hoosiers, 42-35!
SCFP Game Simulator thinks its, Ohio State in 6 of the 8 categories assessed. NW outperforms OSU only in the Red Zone’s 2 categories, RZ Scores, FG & TD’s (84.5% to 76.5%) and in RZ TD’s only (Cats 63% to OSU’s 49%) . In other words, NW has an 85% chance to score (TD or FG) against the Bucks D in the their RZ, while Brutus has a 77% chance to score (TD or FG) in the Cats RZ. The same logic applies with the scoring of TD’s only in the opponents RZ (The Cats have a 63% chance to score (a TD) vs the Bucks, while the Bucks have a 49% shot at a TD vs the Cats defense).
Please Note: To use the Simulator you must use it before midnight (12/18/2020, as it will not function on game day )(12/19)!
http://sullyscollegefootballpage.com/Football_Stats/Matchup.cfm
For Northwestern to have a fighting chance in this game, they must do two things, 1) Win the Turnover Battle (they lost it vs MSU, 4-1, their only loss), they did not lose the TO battle in any of their wins; 2) Do not allow the Bucks big plays, meaning do not allow OSU to score from outside of FG range.
The Cats must do what Clemson did in last year’s CFP Semi-Final, force OSU into the RZ and then limit them to FG’s! If their D can do that, game on!
For the Bucks to win the formula is athleticism, force NW to play in space and the route is on.
The Bucks are 4th in the country in scoring offense @ 46.6 PPG, NW is 90th in scoring offense, at a 25.3 clip per game. A clear mismatch; given these numbers in isolation! However, NW is 2nd in the nation is scoring defense, giving up 14.57 PPG, while OSU is 35th, surrendering 23.20 PPG.
Fitz knows he has to take away the big play, force the Bucks into the RZ and then limit them to FG’s. If they are able to force the game into the meat-house, the cats can roar.
Day knows if the Buck’s athletes can play in space and are able to strike from distance, well, this game will be hard to watch for NW fans!!
Sully’s Says: the Bucks win but do not cover, take the Cats and the opening line @ 19.5 points!
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