Sully's Big Blog! Commentary on College Football, Weekly Games, And Strange Statistics!

College Football Playoff Semi-Final Game

The 2019 Fiesta Bowl (January) was a college football bowl game that was played on January 1, 2019. It was the 48th edition of the Fiesta Bowl, and was one of the 2018–19 bowl games concluding the 2018 FBS football season. This year the Fiesta Bowl will play host to one of the two CFP Semi-Final games!

Teams:  Ohio State (B-10) 13-0 / Clemson (ACC) 13-0

Bowl Location: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ 

Day, Date & Time: Saturday, December, 28, 2019, 7:00 CST

Network: ESPN

Best Win(s): OSU: beat Wisconsin (2) 38-7 & 34-21, Clemson: beat Texas A&M (7-5) 24-10!

Worst Loss(es): OSU: Undefeated; Clemson: Undefeated! 

Common Opponents: None

Vegas Hot$heets Favorite: Clemson -2.5 (Current Line)

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is, say Notre Dame is playing Wisconsin … we take ND’s total yards on offense, add it to the number the Badgers give up on defense, we get a total and then divide the total by 2 to get an average. We then invert the process, we now take Wisconsin’s total offense, add it to what the Irish give up on defense, get a 2nd total, and then divide that number by 2, to get the second average! The greater number (with the exception of Turnovers, lower # wins) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed: 1) Total Yards, 2) Rushing, 3) Passing, 4) Scoring, 5) 3rd Down (Conversions /Stops), 6) Turnovers, 7) Red Zone Scores (TD’s & FG), & 8) Red Zone TD’s (only TD’s)!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Ohio State | Buckeyes Clemson | Tigers
Offense VS Defense 397 +1 390.5
Passing Off VS Def 205 214.5 +1
Rushing Off VS Def 192 +1 176.5
Scoring Off VS Def 30 +1 30 +1
Turnovers Off VS Def 1.615 1.5 +1
3rd Conv Off VS Def 44.05 +1 38.25
Red Zone Scores 80.5 +1 76
Red Zone TDs 61 +1 57
Totals 6 3

Ohio State WINS Trophy

Historic Football Matchups

These teams have lined up against one another on 3 occasions! The 1st meeting was in 1978, the Tigers  won 17-15. The 2nd meeting was in the 2014 Orange Bowl, another Tiger win, 40-35. The final meeting was in the 2016 CFP Semi-Final in Glendale, AZ; Clemson pounded OSU, 31-0!

Turnover Margin: Clemson: 28 Take-A-ways to 14 Give-A-ways = +14 / OSU 25 Take-A-ways to 14 Give-A-ways = +7! Advantage Clemson

3rd Down Conversions: OSU: 94 Conversions on 165 Penetrations (57.0% / Ranked 1st in the Country) Clemson: 74/156 (47.4% / Ranked 14th Nationally) Significant   Advantage OSU

3rd Down Stops: OSU: 55 stops on 192 penetrations (73.4% of the time OSU gets off the Field on 3rd Down / Ranked 4th Nationally) Clemson: 60/198 (69.7% of the time Clemson gets off the Field / Ranked 11th Nationally) Slight Advantage OSU!

Total Offense: Clemson: 547.7 YPG; Ranked 3rd in the Country / OSU 531.0 YPG; Ranked 5th in the Country. Advantage Clemson

Total Defense: Clemson: is giving up 244.7 YPG (Ranked 1st) / OSU: allows 247.6 YPG (Ranked 2nd) Slight Advantage Clemson

Rush Offense: OSU: rushed the ball for 272.2 YPG (5th) / Clemson rushes the ball 252.9 YPG (9th) Advantage OSU

Run Defense: OSU: is giving up 99.5 YPG (7th) / Clemson: is giving up 106.2 YPG (9th) Advantage OSU

Passing Offense: Clemson is averaging 294.8 YPG (2oth in the Country) / OSU is 258.8 (41st in the Country) Advantage Clemson

Passing Defense: Clemson allows 138.5 YPG  (1st)/ OSU is giving up 148.1 YPG (2nd). Advantage Clemson

Sully Says: Clemson wins & covers the 2.5

Posted in #1 Uncategorized |

College Football Playoff Semi-Final Game

The Peach Bowl is an annual college football bowl game played in Atlanta since December 1968. Since 1997, it has been sponsored by Chick-fil-A and officially known as the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl. From 2006 to 2013, it was officially referred to as simply the Chick-fil-A Bowl. This year, the Peach Bowl hosts, along with Fiesta Bowl, one of the two College Football Semi-Final games!

Teams:  Oklahoma (B-12) 12-1 / LSU (SEC) 13-0

Bowl Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA 

Day, Date & Time: Saturday, December, 28, 2019, 3:00 CST

Network: ESPN

Best Win(s): OU: beat Baylor (2) 34-31 & 30-23 OT, LSU: beat Alabama (10-2) 46-41!

Worst Loss(es): PSU: to Kansas State (8-4), 48-41; LSU: Undefeated! 

Common Opponents: Texas: OU beat the Horns, 34-27 / LSU won 45-38!

Vegas Hot$heets Favorite: LSU -13.5 (Current Line)

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is, say Notre Dame is playing Wisconsin … we take ND’s total yards on offense, add it to the number the Badgers give up on defense, we get a total and then divide the total by 2 to get an average. We then invert the process, we now take Wisconsin’s total offense, add it to what the Irish give up on defense, get a 2nd total, and then divide that number by 2, to get the second average! The greater number (with the exception of Turnovers, lower # wins) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed: 1) Total Yards, 2) Rushing, 3) Passing, 4) Scoring, 5) 3rd Down (Conversions /Stops), 6) Turnovers, 7) Red Zone Scores (TD’s & FG), & 8) Red Zone TD’s (only TD’s)!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

LSU | Tigers Oklahoma | Sooners
Offense VS Defense 442.5 447.5 +1
Passing Off VS Def 293 +1 262.5
Rushing Off VS Def 150 185.5 +1
Scoring Off VS Def 36.5 +1 32
Turnovers Off VS Def 0.885 +1 1.46
3rd Conv Off VS Def 40.6 41.1 +1
Red Zone Scores 95 +1 82.5
Red Zone TD’s 70 +1 64.5
Totals 5 3

LSU WINS Trophy

Historic Football Matchups

These teams have laced ’em up on only 2 occasions! The 1st meeting was in 1950, the Sooners won 35-0. The 2nd meeting was in the 2004 Sugar Bowl (2003 season BCS Championship Game), LSU won 21-7.

Turnover Margin: LSU 20 Take-A-ways to 12 Give-A-ways = +8 / OU 11 Take-A-ways to 18 Give-A-ways = -7! Significant Advantage LSU

3rd Down Conversions: OU: 72 Conversions on 142 Penetrations (50.7% / Ranked 5th in the Country) LSU: 80/158 (50.6% / Ranked 6th Nationally) Slight Advantage OU

3rd Down Stops: OU: 50 stops on 166 penetrations (69.9% of the time OU gets off the Field on 3rd Down / Ranked 9th Nationally) LSU: 57/189 (69.8% of the time LSU gets of the Field / Ranked 10th Nationally) Slight Advantage OU!

Total Offense: LSU: 554.4 YPG; Ranked 1st in the Country / OU 554.2 YPG; Ranked 2nd in the Country. Slight Advantage LSU

Total Defense: OU: is giving up 330.6 YPG (Ranked 25th) / LSU: allows 341.3 YPG (Ranked 32nd) Slight Advantage OU

Rush Offense: OU: rushed the ball for 251.2 YPG / LSU rushes the ball 167.5 YPG Significant Advantage OU

Run Defense: LSU is giving up 119.6 YPG / OU is giving up 132.1 YPG. Advantage LSU

Passing Offense: LSU is averaging 386.6 YPG (2nd in the Country) / OU is 303.0 (16th in the Country) Advantage LSU

Passing Defense: OU allows 198.5 YPG / LSU is giving up 221.7 YPG. Advantage OU

Sully Says: LSU wins but does not cover the 13.5

Posted in #1 Uncategorized |

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic

The Cotton Bowl Classic, also simply known as the Cotton Bowl, is an American college football bowl game that has been held annually in the Dallas–Fort Worth metroplex since January 1, 1937. The game was originally played at its namesake stadium in Dallas before moving to AT&T Stadium in nearby Arlington in 2010.

Teams:  Penn State (B-10) 10-2 / Memphis (AAC) 12-1

Bowl Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX 

Day, Date & Time: Saturday, December, 28, 2019, 11:00 CST

Network: ESPN

Best Win(s): PSU: beat Michigan (9-3) 28-21, Memphis: beat Texas (7-5) 23-21!

Worst Loss(es): PSU: to OSU (13-0), 28-17; Memphis: to Temple (8-4) 30-28! 

Common Opponents: None

Vegas Hot$heets Favorite: PSU -7.0 (Opening Line)

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is, say Notre Dame is playing Wisconsin … we take ND’s total yards on offense, add it to the number the Badgers give up on defense, we get a total and then divide the total by 2 to get an average. We then invert the process, we now take Wisconsin’s total offense, add it to what the Irish give up on defense, get a 2nd total, and then divide that number by 2, to get the second average! The greater number (with the exception of Turnovers, lower # wins) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed: 1) Total Yards, 2) Rushing, 3) Passing, 4) Scoring, 5) 3rd Down (Conversions /Stops), 6) Turnovers, 7) Red Zone Scores (TD’s & FG), & 8) Red Zone TD’s (only TD’s)!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Penn State | Nittany Lions Memphis | Tigers
Offense VS Defense 387 405.5 +1
Passing Off VS Def 215 258.5 +1
Rushing Off VS Def 173 +1 147
Scoring Off VS Def 29 +1 27.5
Turnovers Off VS Def 1.23 +1 1.525
3rd Conv Off VS Def 39.85 40.8 +1
Red Zone Scores 90 +1 81.5
Red Zone TDs 64 +1 56.5
Totals 5 3

Penn State WINS Trophy

Historic Football Matchups

1st Meeting between these schools!

This is the G5 representative program in the New Year’s 6 Bowl Games!

PSU has the advantage in the Turnover Margin Category, PSU has generated 20 take-a-ways to 13 give-a-ways while the Tigers even 18, TO forced to 18 lost!

The Money Down conversions belongs to Memphis 46.3% conversion rate (82/177) while PSU 41.9% (159 attempts to 66 conversions). While 3rd sown stops belong to PSU getting their offense back on the field 64.7% (66 stops /187 attempts) while Memphis comes off the field 61.4% of the time (76/197)!

Memphis rushes the ball for 196.2 YPG to PSU’s 173.5 YPG! Stopping the run its PSU (ranked 5th in the country) allowing 97.9 YPG to Memphis’ allowing 171.6 YPG!

Sully Says: PSU wins but does not Cover! Memphis is playing for the entire Group of 5!

Posted in #1 Uncategorized |

Camping World Bowl

The 2019 Camping World Bowl is a college football bowl game that will be played on December 28, 2019, with kickoff scheduled for 12:00 p.m. EST on ABC. It will be the 30th edition of the Camping World Bowl, and will be one of the 2019–20 bowl games concluding the 2019 FBS football season.

Teams:  Notre Dame (IND) 10-2 / Iowa State (P-12) 7-5

Bowl Location: Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Fl 

Day, Date & Time: Saturday, December, 28, 2019, 11:00 CST

Network: ABC

Best Win(s): ND: beat Virginia (9-5) 35-20, ISU: beat Texas (7-5) 23-21!

Worst Loss(es): AF: lost to Michigan (9-3), 45-14; ISU: lost to OSU (8-4) 34-27! 

Common Opponents: None

Vegas Hot$heets Favorite: ND -3.5 (Opening Line)

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is, say Notre Dame is playing Wisconsin … we take ND’s total yards on offense, add it to the number the Badgers give up on defense, we get a total and then divide the total by 2 to get an average. We then invert the process, we now take Wisconsin’s total offense, add it to what the Irish give up on defense, get a 2nd total, and then divide that number by 2, to get the second average! The greater number (with the exception of Turnovers, lower # wins) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed: 1) Total Yards, 2) Rushing, 3) Passing, 4) Scoring, 5) 3rd Down (Conversions /Stops), 6) Turnovers, 7) Red Zone Scores (TD’s & FG), & 8) Red Zone TD’s (only TD’s)!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Notre Dame | Fighting Irish Iowa State | Cyclones
Offense VS Defense 395.5 +1 391.5
Passing Off VS Def 240 241 +1
Rushing Off VS Def 156 +1 150.5
Scoring Off VS Def 31 +1 26.5
Turnovers Off VS Def 1 +1 1.67
3rd Conv Off VS Def 41.95 +1 35.25
Red Zone Scores 90 95 +1
Red Zone TD’s 68 +1 67
Totals 6 2

Notre Dame WINS Trophy

Historic Football Matchups

1st Meeting between these Programs

ISU QB, Brock Purdy completed 66.3% of his passes (295/445) a 27/9 ratio, TD to INT, while passing for 3,760 yards. The Irish will counter with Ian Book, who passed for 2,787 Yards, a 36/6 ratio, & completing 59.1% of his passes (220/371).

The Irish convert on 3rd down and stop their opponent on the money down more effectively than the Cyclones (Conversions: ND: 41.9% to ISU’s 35.2% / Stops: ND 67.8% to ISU’s 57.4%). This translates to the Irish getting their offense back on the field about 70% of the time to the Cyclones 60%.

ND has turned their opponents over 15 times more than they have given the ball up (26 gained to 11 lost), while ISU Turnover Margin is negative 1 (13 Gained to 14 lost)

In the run game, ND rushes the ball more efficiently 177 to 140, while ISU stops the run more effectively, 135 YPG to ND’s 161 YPG.

In the RZ; ISU has 51 penetrations & 48 scores to the Irish’s 51/47, however, ND has scored more TD’s, 40 to the Cyclones 37. On RZ Defense, ND is one of the worst team’s in the country statistically, when defending the short field. They are ranked 129/130 (28 penetration 27 scores, 10/27 scores were FGs) ISU is ranked @ 104/130 (33 penetrations 29 scores, 10 of the 29 scores were FGs)

Sully Says: Take the Irish and give ISU the 3.5!

Posted in #1 Uncategorized |

Cheez-It Bowl

The Cheez-It Bowl is an NCAA FBS college football bowl game that has been played in the state of Arizona since 1989

Teams:  Air Force (MWC) 10-2 / Washington State (P-12) 6-6

Bowl Location: Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ 

Day, Date & Time: Friday, December, 27, 2019, 9:15 CST

Network: ESPN

Best Win(s): AF: beat Hawaii (10-5) 56-26, WSU: beat Minnesota (10-2) 23-19!

Worst Loss(es): AF: lost to Navy (10-2), 34-25; WSU: lost to UCLA  (4-8), 67-65! 

Common Opponents: Colorado: AF beat Colorado, 30-23; WSU beat Buffs, 41-10!

Vegas Hot$heets Favorite: AF -3 (Opening Line)

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is, say Notre Dame is playing Wisconsin … we take ND’s total yards on offense, add it to the number the Badgers give up on defense, we get a total and then divide the total by 2 to get an average. We then invert the process, we now take Wisconsin’s total offense, add it to what the Irish give up on defense, get a 2nd total, and then divide that number by 2, to get the second average! The greater number (with the exception of Turnovers, lower # wins) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed: 1) Total Yards, 2) Rushing, 3) Passing, 4) Scoring, 5) 3rd Down (Conversions /Stops), 6) Turnovers, 7) Red Zone Scores (TD’s & FG), & 8) Red Zone TD’s (only TD’s)!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Washington State | Cougars Air Force | Falcons
Offense VS Defense 416.5 441 +1
Passing Off VS Def 326 +1 208.5
Rushing Off VS Def 90.5 232.5 +1
Scoring Off VS Def 29.5 32.5 +1
Turnovers Off VS Def 1.625 1.46 +1
3rd Conv Off VS Def 42.05 49.3 +1
Red Zone Scores 80 86 +1
Red Zone TD’s 59.5 69 +1
Totals 1 7

Air Force WINS Trophy

Historic Football Matchups

1st meeting between these Universities!

Under current AF Coach, Troy Calhoun, the Falcons are 2-7 vs Power 5 Opponents. However, one of those wins came early this season, a 30-23 win over Colorado.

AF is 2nd in the Nation on 3rd Down conversions @ 54.8% coupled with WSU being 98th on 3rd down stops 42.4%. A good indicator that AF’s offense will be able to maintain drives.

Neither team was very effective in TO Margin; AF was a -2, while Washington State turned the ball over 24 times to forcing 18 Turnovers for a negative 6!

AF averages 2 sacks per game (24), while WSU give up 170 rushing yards per game

The Key to this game for AF will be their ability to control the Cougars explosive plays, not only with their defense, but with time of possession on offense!

WSU QB, Anthony Gordon led the nation in passing yards (5,228) was 2nd in TD’s 45 (only LSU’s Burrow threw more, 48)

Sully Says: Take the Cougars and the 3!

Posted in #1 Uncategorized |

San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl

The Holiday Bowl is a post-season NCAA Division I Football Bowl Subdivision college football bowl game that has been played annually since 1978 at SDCCU Stadium in San Diego, California, United States. Since the 2014 edition, it has featured a match-up of PAC-12 and Big Ten teams!

Teams:  USC (P-12) 8-4 / Iowa (B-10) 9-3

Bowl Location: SDCCU Stadium, San Diego, CA 

Day, Date & Time: Friday, December, 27, 2019, 7:00 CST

Network: FOX Sports

Best Win(s): USC: beat Arizona State (7-5) 31-26, Iowa: beat Minnesota (10-2) 23-19!

Worst Loss(es): USC: lost to Oregon (11-2), 56-24; Iowa: lost to Wisconsin  (10-3), 24-22! 

Common Opponents: None

Vegas Hot$heets Favorite: Iowa -2.5 (Opening Line)

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is, say Notre Dame is playing Wisconsin … we take ND’s total yards on offense, add it to the number the Badgers give up on defense, we get a total and then divide the total by 2 to get an average. We then invert the process, we now take Wisconsin’s total offense, add it to what the Irish give up on defense, get a 2nd total, and then divide that number by 2, to get the second average! The greater number (with the exception of Turnovers, lower # wins) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed: 1) Total Yards, 2) Rushing, 3) Passing, 4) Scoring, 5) 3rd Down (Conversions /Stops), 6) Turnovers, 7) Red Zone Scores (TD’s & FG), & 8) Red Zone TD’s (only TD’s)!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

USC | Trojans Iowa | Hawkeyes
Offense VS Defense 383.5 392 +1
Passing Off VS Def 262 +1 237
Rushing Off VS Def 122 155 +1
Scoring Off VS Def 23 26 +1
Turnovers Off VS Def 1.585 1.29 +1
3rd Conv Off VS Def 40.25 +1 38.6
Red Zone Scores 81.5 89.5 +1
Red Zone TD’s 52 55.5 +1
Totals 2 6

Iowa WINS Trophy

Historic Football Matchups

These teams last met in the 2003 Orange Bowl, a 38-17 SC win. The Trojans lead the series 7 games to 2 games. USC has won 6 in a row & Iowa’s last win was in series was in 1961, @ the Coliseum, 35-34.

This game is one of the best in this 2019-20 Bowl Season. SC is the drama king of the 2019 season, QB injuries (3 different QB’s started for the Trojan’s (JT Daniels, Matt Fink, & Kedon Slovis). Then Kedon Slovis emerges as a star, passing for over 3,000 yards, 28 TD’s to 9 picks.

Every week SC’s Coach, Clay Helton was going to be fired, then he is not fired … but really not extended either … he is put in a limbo state for the 2020 season… a wait and see?  As a result, SC has put together its worst recruiting class for 2020 season … maybe ever!

This game will be a struggle between one team that wants it played in space (SC), while the other team wants this game settled in the meat house (Hawks)!

SC’s receivers, Michael Pittman, Amon Ra Saint Brown & Tyler Vaughns can and will overwhelm the Hawk secondary. Unless, the Iowa front (AJ Epenesa & Company) can hurry/sack Slovis, if not, it will be a long day for the Hawks!

That said, if the Iowa D can keep the Trojans from scoring outside the 20, the Air Raid (a 5 wide offensive set) can struggle when funneled into a smaller vertical field! Weird, but true!

Time of possession (Iowa’s run game and short passing game) is an important element for a Hawks win, as is limiting SC’s explosive plays!

This game should be fun!

Sully Says: Take the 2.5 & SC in this one!

 

Posted in #1 Uncategorized |

Academy Sports + Outdoor Texas Bowl

The Texas Bowl is a post-season NCAA sanctioned Division I FBS College football Bowl game first held in 2006 in Houston, TX. The bowl replaced the defunct Houston Bowl, which played annually from 2000 to 2005, and before that the Bluebonnet Bowl, the first bowl game in Houston, played from 1959 through 1987.

Since 2017, the game has been sponsored by Academy Sports + Outdoor Bowl and officially known as the Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl. The game was previous the AdvoCare V100 Texas Bowl from 2014 to 2016, with AdvoCare as the title sponsor. From 2011 to 2012, the game was sponsored by Meineke Car Care and officially known as the Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas.

Teams:  Oklahoma State (B-12) 8-4 / Texas A&M (SEC) 7-5

Bowl Location: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX 

Day, Date & Time: Friday, December, 27, 2019, 5:45 CST

Network: ESPN

Best Win(s): OSU: beat Kansas State (8-4) 26-13, A&M: beat Miss. State (6-6) 49-30!

Worst Loss(es): MSU: lost to Texas Tech (5-7), 45-35; A&M: lost to LSU (13-0), 50-7! 

Common Opponents: None

Vegas Hot$heets Favorite: A&M -4.5 (Opening Line)

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is, say Notre Dame is playing Wisconsin … we take ND’s total yards on offense, add it to the number the Badgers give up on defense, we get a total and then divide the total by 2 to get an average. We then invert the process, we now take Wisconsin’s total offense, add it to what the Irish give up on defense, get a 2nd total, and then divide that number by 2, to get the second average! The greater number (with the exception of Turnovers, lower # wins) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed: 1) Total Yards, 2) Rushing, 3) Passing, 4) Scoring, 5) 3rd Down (Conversions /Stops), 6) Turnovers, 7) Red Zone Scores (TD’s & FG), & 8) Red Zone TD’s (only TD’s)!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Oklahoma State | Cowboys Texas A&M | Aggies
Offense VS Defense 399.5 410.5 +1
Passing Off VS Def 217.5 259 +1
Rushing Off VS Def 182 +1 152
Scoring Off VS Def 28 28.5 +1
Turnovers Off VS Def 1.46 1.42 +1
3rd Conv Off VS Def 36 38.95 +1
Red Zone Scores 87 88.5 +1
Red Zone TDs 56 61 +1
Totals 1 7

Texas A&M WINS Trophy

Historic Football Matchups

Since 2009 these teams have met 3 times, OSU has won all 3 Games; 2009, 36-31, 2010, 38-35, & in 2011, 30-29. These games were played when A&M was a member of the B-12! Over all this is the 28th meeting with the Aggies holding a 17 to 10 edge in the series.

All 5 of A&M losses were against teams ranked in the top 8, @ the time they played, (Georgia, Bama, Auburn, Clemson & LSU).

OSU has the nations leading rusher, Chuba Hubbard (1936 yards on 309 Carries for 6.8 YPC). Hubbard has scored 21 TD’s while A&M has allowed only 12 rushing TD all Season. Another factor to be considered is that Cowboy QB, Spencer Sanders, who was injured in the Kansas game (Nov. 16 will not play)

A&M QB, Kellen Mond, 2802 passing yards, 19 TD’s, & a 61.3 completion percentage give the Aggies a significant edge @ the signal caller position!

A&M allows only 129.1 YPG rushing (nations 30th best rush D), providing an answer to OSU, Chuba Hubbard

In Turnover Margin, neither team functioned at a high lever, OSU was -0.25 while A&M was at -0.31

A&M is better on 3rd down stops, getting off the field 68% of the time, while OSU is @ 61% on the time getting the ball back to their offense!

Sully Says: Take the Might SEC, A&M, & give the Cowboys the 4.5!

Posted in #1 Uncategorized |

New Era Pinstripe Bowl

The Pinstripe Bowl is a National Collegiate Athletic Association Division I Football Bowl Subdivision college football bowl game that is held at Yankee Stadium in The Bronx, New York City.

Teams:  Michigan State (B-10) 6-6 / Wake Forest (ACC) 8-4

Bowl Location: New York, NY / Yankee Stadium 

Day, Date & Time: Friday, December, 27, 2019, 2:20 CST

Network: ESPN

Best Win(s): MSU: beat Indiana (8-4) 40-31, WF: beat FSU (6-6) 22-20!

Worst Loss(es): MSU: lost to Wisconsin (10-3), 38-0; WF: lost to Clemson (13-0), 52-3! 

Common Opponents: None

Vegas Hot$heets Favorite: MSU -4.5 (Current Line)

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is, say Notre Dame is playing Wisconsin … we take ND’s total yards on offense, add it to the number the Badgers give up on defense, we get a total and then divide the total by 2 to get an average. We then invert the process, we now take Wisconsin’s total offense, add it to what the Irish give up on defense, get a 2nd total, and then divide that number by 2, to get the second average! The greater number (with the exception of Turnovers, lower # wins) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed: 1) Total Yards, 2) Rushing, 3) Passing, 4) Scoring, 5) 3rd Down (Conversions /Stops), 6) Turnovers, 7) Red Zone Scores (TD’s & FG), & 8) Red Zone TD’s (only TD’s)!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Michigan State | Spartans Wake Forest | Demon Deacons
Offense VS Defense 391.5 399.5 +1
Passing Off VS Def 248.5 258 +1
Rushing Off VS Def 143 +1 142
Scoring Off VS Def 25.5 28 +1
Turnovers Off VS Def 1.875 1.54 +1
3rd Conv Off VS Def 34 40 +1
Red Zone Scores 86.5 +1 83.5
Red Zone TD’s 61.5 +1 52.5
Totals 3 5

Wake Forest WINS Trophy

Historic Football Matchups

1st Meeting between these schools!

The Spartans lost to the ‘other powers’ in the B-10, Wisconsin, Michigan, PSU, & Ohio State by an average margin of 29.25 points. An unusual year @ 6-6 for MSU, a team that won at least 10 games a year from 2010 through 2017.

The Demon Deacons had a very good year in 2019 (8-4) and it could have been a whole lot better, loosing 3 of their last 4 games.

WF is a plus 7 (23/16) in Turnover Margin while MSU is -1 (21/22), On 3rd down Conversions Wake is 2 47.2 %, MSU is 99th in the country @ 36.5 %, while on 3rd down stops the Spartans are 23 in the country @ 33.5, that said, advantage WF as the Deacons are 15th in the nation @ 31.5%. Wake rushes the ball for 175 YPG to MSU 123 YPG. while the Spartans defend the run more effectively, allowing 108 YPG to Wake 162.6 YPG.

Sully’s Says: You can not trust the Spartan offense, take WF and the 4.5 points.

Posted in #1 Uncategorized |

Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman

The Military Bowl is a post-season National Collegiate Athletic Association-sanctioned Division I college football bowl game that has been played annually each December in the Washington metropolitan area since 2008.

Teams:  North Carolina (ACC) 6-6 / Temple (AAC) 8-4

Bowl Location: Annapolis, MD / Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium 

Day, Date & Time: Friday, December, 27, 2019, 11:00 CST

Network: ESPN

Best Win(s): Temple: beat Memphis (12-1) 30-28, UNC: beat South Carolina (4-8) 24-20!

Worst Loss(es): Temple: lost to UCF (9-3), 63-21; UNC: lost to V-Tech (7-5), 43-41 in 6 OT’s & Pitt, 34-26 in OT! 

Common Opponents: Georgia Tech, Temple won 24-2, while UNC beat Tech, 38-22

Vegas Hot$heets Favorite: Temple -6.0 (Opening Line)

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is, say Notre Dame is playing Wisconsin … we take ND’s total yards on offense, add it to the number the Badgers give up on defense, we get a total and then divide the total by 2 to get an average. We then invert the process, we now take Wisconsin’s total offense, add it to what the Irish give up on defense, get a 2nd total, and then divide that number by 2, to get the second average! The greater number (with the exception of Turnovers, lower # wins) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed: 1) Total Yards, 2) Rushing, 3) Passing, 4) Scoring, 5) 3rd Down (Conversions /Stops), 6) Turnovers, 7) Red Zone Scores (TD’s & FG), & 8) Red Zone TD’s (only TD’s)!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Temple | Owls North Carolina | Tar Heels
Offense VS Defense 392.5 417 +1
Passing Off VS Def 246.5 249 +1
Rushing Off VS Def 146.5 168 +1
Scoring Off VS Def 26 27.5 +1
Turnovers Off VS Def 1.5 1.25 +1
3rd Conv Off VS Def 37.5 +1 36.5
Red Zone Scores 79 +1 76.5
Red Zone TDs 57.5 +1 53.5
Totals 3 5

North Carolina WINS Trophy

Historic Football Matchups

1st Meeting between these teams!

This is an interesting match-up, both teams have raised the banners on college football national peeks. Temple’s take down of Orange Bowl bound, 12-1 Memphis (30-28), added to UNC’s nail-biting, near-miss loss to a 13-0 Clemson (21-20) and the Tar Heels failed 2 point conversion!

UNC has had one of the most exciting season’s in 2019 in all of the FBS; the return of Mack Brown, 2 OT battles, a season opening win over the Carolina neighbor, South Carolina, 24-20, from the Mighty SEC, a 34-31 loss to 13-1 Appalachian State, and losing a 38-31, battle with Virginia, the Coastal Division Champ. In other words, the Heels were a breath away from a 11-1 season, 5 games they lost that one more score could have won!

Counting the Bowl interim’s, Rod Carey is the 5th HC @ Temple in the last 4 years! Yet, the one content has been their ability to play defense. This year they held 8 of 12 opponents to 21 or fewer points! Two bad losses, UCF (63-21) & SMU (45-21), kept the Owls from being a top 15 scoring defense! The 2 best teams the owls played this year, Memphis 12-1, (30-28 win) & Cincinnati 10-3, (a 17-15 loss) clearly demonstrates their ability to step their game up!

Sully Says: Take the points, this will be a close game with the team getting the digits being the winner! (Temple -6)

Posted in #1 Uncategorized |

Quick Lane Bowl

The Quick Lane Bowl is a post-season college football bowl game certified by the NCAA that began play in the 2014 season.

Teams:  Pitt (ACC) 7-5 / Eastern Michigan (MAC) 6-6

Bowl Location: Detroit, MI

Day, Date & Time: Thursday, December, 26, 2019, 6:00 EST

Network: ESPN

Best Win(s): Pitt: beat Central Florida (9-3) 35-34, EMU: beat Illinois (6-6) 34-31!

Worst Loss(es): Pitt lost to Virginia (9-4), 30-14; EMU lost to Buffalo (8-5), 43-14! 

Common Opponents: None

Vegas Hot$heets Favorite: Pitt-11.5 (Current Line)

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is, say Notre Dame is playing Wisconsin … we take ND’s total yards on offense, add it to the number the Badgers give up on defense, we get a total and then divide the total by 2 to get an average. We then invert the process, we now take Wisconsin’s total offense, add it to what the Irish give up on defense, get a 2nd total, and then divide that number by 2, to get the second average! The greater number (with the exception of Turnovers, lower # wins) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed: 1) Total Yards, 2) Rushing, 3) Passing, 4) Scoring, 5) 3rd Down (Conversions /Stops), 6) Turnovers, 7) Red Zone Scores (TD’s & FG), & 8) Red Zone TD’s (only TD’s)!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Pittsburgh | Panthers Eastern Michigan | Eagles
Offense VS Defense 401 +1 354
Passing Off VS Def 239.5 +1 238
Rushing Off VS Def 161.5 +1 116
Scoring Off VS Def 25 25.5 +1
Turnovers Off VS Def 1.71 1.205 +1
3rd Conv Off VS Def 42.3 +1 35.2
Red Zone Scores 81 +1 79.5
Red Zone TDs 58.5 +1 52.5
Totals 6 2

Pittsburgh WINS Trophy

This will mark the 3rd meeting all-time between these programs, more of which were played since 2009! 

Neither coach has won an FBS Bowl game. 

Pitt is -8 in Turnover Margin while Eastern Michigan Michigan is plus 4. Pitt is slightly better on 3rd Down Conversions, 39.6% to 38.7%, However, Pitt has a significant advantage on 3rd Down stops; the Panthers is stopping opponents 68.3% of the time on the money down (31.7% Conversion Rate) while EMU stops are @ 55.0% on 3rd Down (45.0% Conversion Rate). 

Neither one of these teams runs the ball effectively, EMU is 119th in the country @ 121.9 YPG while Pitt is 121st  @ 120.7 YPG! However, EMU led the MAC in passing yards & TD’s (280.8 YPG & 25 TD’s) while Pitt was @ 243.4 YPG & 14 TD’s! Finally, Pitt largest margin of victory this season was 10 points, twice, Ohio 20-10 & G-Tech, 20-10! 

Sully Says: Take EMU & the 11.5!

Posted in #1 Uncategorized |