Sully's Big Blog! Commentary on College Football, Weekly Games, And Strange Statistics!

Pat Sullivan’s Podcast on Attitude/Leadership and Team Building

Pat Sullivan: Coach, Author, & Speaker

Pat coached basketball for 44 years, 10 @ the High School and 34 at the collegiate level

Pat’s teams won 602 games,

He was recognized by his peers 11 times as “Coach of the Year”

Pat has been inducted into 8 “Hall of Fames”

He has been honored for life time achievement by 3 Associations; Lewis University, the Joliet Chamber of Commerce, & the Illinois Basketball Coaches Association.

Pat has directed Basketball camps and clinics throughout the U. S. and Europe (Ireland, Belgium & Greece).

The University of Saint Francis, where Pat served, has named their primary athletic facility after him, the Patrick J. Sullivan Recreational Center.

Pat has written 2 outstanding books that capture both Pat’s wisdom & knowledge on his 44 year journey as an administrator and coach.

1) Attitude: The Cornerstone of Leadership

2) Team-Building: From the Bench to the Boardroom

Please take a few minutes to spend with Pat as he discusses his books with Annie Jennings PR, a nationally known Strategic Communications and Public Relations Firm that market the best ideas found in print with highly successful people!

Enjoy!

https://anniejenningspr.com/authorexpertwire/author/pat-sullivan/

Both of Pat’s Books can be found on Amazon!

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ACC 2020 Non-Conference Schedule & Beyond

The Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) will play 112 Conference games & 56 Non-Conference (NC) games for a total 168 contests. They will take on 19 Power 5 (P5) teams, play 23 Group of 5 (G5) opponents, & 14 Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) squads.

It should be noted, that P5 & G5 are both in the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS), this means that they must award 85 scholarships, while the FCS can only award up to 63 rides, although they may offer fewer, unlike the FBS which must offer 85! That said, an FCS program can offer partial athletic dollars up the equivalence of 85 scholarships, as long as the $’s do not exceed the amount equal to 63 full scholarships!

The ACC plays 19 P5 opponents, 5 more than the SEC’s 14 & 8 more then the B-10’s 11! The Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) has a contractual agreement with Notre Dame to play 5 games each year, an agreement that has definite advantages for both parties. It explains why the ACC plays 5 more P5s’ then the SEC, as both leagues play 8 conference games and must schedule 56 NC games (4 NC games per team).

The fact that the ACC plays 8 more P5’s than the B-10, is related to 2 elements, 1) the ND factor, & 2) the B-10 plays 9 conference games as compared to the SEC & ACC’s 8 conference tilts! As a result of this discrepancy (in the number of conference games, 8 to 9), the B-10 schedules 42 NC games (3 NC per team), 14 fewer than the ACC or the SEC NC games (56)!

The web address listed below. will take you to the 2020 ACC schedule!

http://www.sullyscollegefootballpage.com/Football_Stats/Conference_Listings.cfm?MCID=1&DVID=1

Here is a break down of ACC teams, NC schedules, and other tidbits!

Boston College, Atlantic Division (AD): the Eagles take on 2 P5’s, Kansas, a team out of the Big Twelve (B-12) & Purdue (B-10), 1 G5, Ohio (MAC), and 1 FCS team, Holy Cross from the Patriot League (PL). There are only 2 Catholic University playing in the FBS, Boston College & Notre Dame. BC has parted ways with HC Steve Addazio (Addazio took the Colorado State job) and hired Ohio State co-defensive coordinator, Jeff Fafley!

Clemson, (AD): the Tigers take on 2 P5’s, Notre Dame, an independent (IND) in South Bend & South Carolina, a member of the Southeastern Conference (SEC), @ home. The also play 1 G5, Akron, from the Mid-American Conference (MAC), & 1 FCS opponent, The Citadel, out of the Southern Conference (SoCon). Clemson last played the Irish, in South Bend, in 1979, a Clemson win, 16-10 and Clemson leads the series with the Irish, 3 to 1  (including 3 in a row)! The Tigers have beaten South Carolina 6 straight times. If Clemson wins both of these games, then wins the ACC Championship, even with 1 loss, chances are good they will get in the CFP. Unlike last year, their 2020 schedule is stronger then the one they faced in 2019; while their star power & depth remains as good as any FBS roster!

Duke, Coastal Division (CD): plays 1 P5, Notre Dame, 2 G5’s, both from C-USA, UNC Charlotte & Middle Tennessee, & has 1 FCS opponent, Elon (SoCon)! Duke needs to go 3-1 in their 2020 NC schedule. Their divisional crossover games are winnable (@ NC State & Wake @ home) and the CD has had 7 different champs in 7 years!

Florida State, (AD): the Seminoles line it up against 2 P5’s, West Virginia (B-12) to open the 2020 & Florida (SEC), to close the 2020 campaign! FSU also plays one of the country’s best G5 programs, Boise State (MWC) on the Blue Field! State also battles 1 FCS team, Samford (SoCan). New Coach, Mike Norvell, inherits the 2nd best roster in the ACC, based on his track record, look for the Seminoles to play @ a level consistent with their talent levels in 2020!

Georgia Tech (CD): the Yellow Jackets play 2 P5’s teams, ND (IND) & Georgia (SEC), 1 G5, Central Florida (AAC), & play 1 FCS opponent, Gardner Webb (BSC). GT’s schedule, is, @ the very least, arguably, the best NC schedule in the ACC! Georgia is the #1 recruiting program in all of college football, Notre Dame has won 33 games the past 3 years, & UCF, in that same time, has won 34 games and twiced represented the G5’s in their New Year’s Six Bowl spot! GT is recruiting much better now that they have gone away from the triple option, in the talent rich Georgia HS football community! Tech will be better in the very near future … much better!

Louisville (AD): the Cardinals take on 2 P5 in 2020, ND (IND) & Kentucky (SEC), in games 11 & 12, played in late November. The Wildcats face ND in South Bend and then welcome in-state rival, Kentucky, to Papa John Cardinal Stadium. The Cats also face 1 G5, another in-state opponent, Western Kentucky (C-USA) & 1 FBS opponent, Murray State, from the Ohio Valley (OVC)! Louisville is the only team in the ACC that finishes its conference season in week 10, as mentioned, they are out of conference in week 11 (ND) & week 12 (UK)!

Miami (CD): the Hurricanes NC schedule follows the SEC model, 1 P5 (Michigan State), 2 G5’s, Temple (AAC) & UAB (C-USA), and 1 FCS team, Wagner, out of the Northeast Conference  (NEC). The MSU / Miami game is ‘must see’ TV, as neither one of these teams know when or how to shut up & play! They both like talk & play! I can’t speak for you, but I have already got this game circled on my calendar!! The Canes ACC schedule draws FSU @ home & Wake on the road, in their divisional crossover games. Manny Diaz will need to have a breakout year in 2020, he is 13-13 in his 1st 2 years @ Coral Gables, and coming off a bowl disaster, losing to Louisiana Tech in a 14-0 debacle! This will not fly in Hurricane Country!

NC State (AD): the Wolfpack take on the B-12, battling near-by West Virginia in Morgantown, WV. They will line it up against 2 G5’s, an is-state opponent, East Carolina (AAC) Greenville, NC & a MAC team from Indiana, Ball State. The “Pack” also will ‘kick it off’ vs an FCS team, Western Carolina, another North Carolina University, located in Cullowhee, NC! State will be looking to rebound from a disappointing 2019 season (4-8), they opened the 2019 season at 4-2 & then lost 6 straight to close out their season!

North Carolina (CD): the Tar Heels open their 2020 season against a G5 opponent, yet, G5 only in name, as the Heels travel to Orlando Fl, to take on Central Florida (AAC). They  then go from the purverbal frying pan to the fire, as they battle Auburn (SEC), in Atlanta’s  Mercedes-Benz Stadium in week two! UNC also plays a 2nd G5 opponent, U-Conn and even in their FCS game, they will be challenged, as the play the 2nd best program in the Football Championship Subdivision (FCS), James Madison, out of the Colonial Athletic Association (CAA)! UNC has legendary coach Mack Brown & one of the best young QB in country, Sam Howell, roaming their sidelines in 2020, a very good recipe for success!

Pittsburgh (CD): the Panthers play 1 P5, 2 G5’s, & FCS opponent in 2020. Pitt will travel to South Bend to face the Irish, Last time in Indiana, the Panthers lost a tight battle, 19-14 to the Irish. Pitt will travel to Huntington, West Virginia, to take on Marshall (C-USA) and welcome Miami of Ohio (MAC), who won the MAC East Division & then beat Central Michigan to win the Mid-American Conference! Finally, Roc (mascot) the Panther, will lead Pitt against an FCS opponent, Richmond (CAA)!

Syracuse (AD): the Orange continues the trend of playing 1 P5, Rutgers (B-10), 2 G5’s, Western Michigan out of the MAC & an independent, Liberty (IND). The Cuse’ will round out their NC schedule against an FCS opponent, Colgate, a team out of the Patriot League (PL). The divisional crossover games, unfortunately for Syracuse, include a trip to Clemson! Last year, the Orange slipped to 5-7, after the 2018 season found Dino Babers’ team, winning 10 games and coming within a eyelash of beating National Champion, Clemson, 27-23! Syracuse will be looking to regain that 2018 magic!

Virginia (CD): the Cavaliers play 1 P5, Georgia (SEC) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta Ga, 2 G5’s, both @ home, U-Conn (IND) & an in-state opponent, Old Dominion (C-USA). UVA rounds out its schedule vs an FCS team, another Virginia University, Virginia Military Institute (VMI) in Charlottesville, VA. Their divisional crossover games are not friendly, they travel to South Carolina, to battle Clemson and welcome, an improving, Louisville to Scott Stadium! The Cavaliers were the 7th team, from the Coastal Division (CD), to win the division in a 7 year time frame. This fact is, to the best of my knowledge, this has never happened in any other conferences’ divisional play, ever, that is; until 2019, when the Cavs completed the cycle; 7 championships, won by 7 different teams, in 7 years!!

Virginia Tech (CD): the Hokies play a traditional NC schedule, 1P5, 2 G5’s & 1 FCS team. VT hosts the B-10’s Penn State, play Liberty (IND), a G5 from Lynchburg, VA @ home, and then travel to Murfreesboro TN, to take on a G5 from C-USA, Middle Tennessee! The Hokies get a gift, playing Boston College, who have a new head coach, Jeff Fafley, (Ohio State, Co-DC), who is also new to the ranks of the FBS as a HC! They also travel to Kentucky to play Louisville. Both of these games are winnable! They also get these divisional opponents, Miami, G-T, & Virginia @ Lane Stadium! V-Tech should be one of the favorites to win the Coastal Division!

Wake Forest (AD): the Demon Deacons host the Fighting Irish (IND), sort of; (game will be played at the Bank of America Stadium, in Charlotte, NC). WF will battle 2 G5’s, 1st they travel to Norfolk, VA to ‘line it up’ against Old Dominion (C-USA) & then welcome, Appalachian State, to Winston Salem, NC & BB&T Field! In their divisional crossover games, the Deacons draw, in-state rival, Duke and then travel Florida, to ‘kick-it-off ‘ vs Miami! In the Atlantic Division, WF plays FSU @ home and then heads to SC, to battle Clemson (ouch)! The only team in the Atlantic Division that has any chance (on paper) of making the division race interesting, is Florida State, otherwise it’s all Clemson!

 

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Big Ten 2020 Schedule

The Big 10 has a different philosophy as to how they schedule their non-conference (NC) games from that of the Southeastern Conference (SEC). This can be quickly evidenced by the fact that 4 teams in the B-10 (Indiana, Illinois, Nebraska, & Northwestern) do not play a Non-conference (NC) Power Five (P5) opponent in the 2020 season!

It should also be noted that the B-10 plays only 8 games against Football Championship Subdivision (FCS), while the SEC plays 14 FCS teams. The FCS teams can award up to 63 scholarships, while the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) must offer 85 to maintain their good standing in that subdivision! It should be pointed out, that Illinois, Nebraska, & Northwestern, 3 teams that do not play a NC game vs a P5 opponent, also line it up against an FCS squad. This creates both the perception and the reality of a “weak” NC schedule!

Finally, it should be noted that while both conferences have 14 members, the B-10 plays 9 conference games to the SEC’s 8. This means the B-10 has to schedule 3 NC games ( a total of 42 NC games), while the SEC has to set dates with 4 NC opponents (a total of 56 NC games). That said, the B-10 conference scheduling means that each team in the league plays 9 P5 (as B-10 is a P5 conference) opponents. The remaining teams (PSU, OSU, Maryland, Rutgers, & Michigan in the East Division & Wisconsin, Purdue, Iowa, & Minnesota in the West) all play a p5 NC Team. Michigan State, like the SEC’s Georgia, our the only team’s in their respective conference to play 2 P5’s in 2020!

http://www.sullyscollegefootballpage.com/Football_Stats/Conference_Listings.cfm?MCID=1&DVID=3

Illinois: plays 2 Group of 5 (G5) teams, U-Conn & Bowling Green (please note that G5’s teams are part of the FBS/85 scholarships teams) and one FCS opponent, Illinois State, Missouri Valley Football Conference (MVFC). All 3 games are in Champaign! The best one can say about the Illini NC schedule is that it is both realistic and weak!

Indiana:  the Hoosiers play 3 G5 teams, Western Kentucky & Ball State in Bloomington and U-Conn in Connecticut! The best one can say about IU’s NC schedule is that it is weak!

Iowa: the Hawks play a balanced NC schedule, in-state-rival, Iowa State (P5 / B-12), a G5 opponent, Northern Illinois (MAC), & a FCS team, Northern Iowa (MVFC)! All 3 NC games are in Iowa City!

Maryland: the Terps NC schedule is very much like Iowa’s! They play 1 P5 from the B-12, West Virginia, 1 G5, Northern Illinois, & 1 FCS opponent, Towson from the Colonial Athletic Association (CAA). Maryland recruits an area known as the DMV ( DC, Maryland & Virginia) scheduling and then beating a team like WV, helps win some of those recruiting battles!

Michigan: the Wolverines NC schedule is solid! They play 1 P5, Washington, in Seattle, a very good PAC 12 team and 2 G5 teams, Arkansas State (Sun Belt Conference/SBC) & Ball State (MAC). While Arkansas State & Ball State are not counted among best G5 Programs, given Michigan’s in division battles (OSU & PSU), their schedule, if the beat Washington, will help, not hurt, their post season aspirations!

Michigan State: the Spartans play the B-10’s best NC schedule in 2020! Sparty is the only B-10 team to schedule 2 P5 teams, BYU ( like many P5 conferences’, Sully’s College Football Page {SCFP} count BYU & ND as Independent affillities of the P5 Conferences)  & Miami FL (ACC). They also play Toledo, one of the better teams in the MAC West! The good news for MSU, given their challenging NC line-up, is that they host OSU & Michigan!

Minnesota: the Gophers have taken the balanced approach to the 2020 NC schedule. Goldy plays 1 P5, BYU, 1 G5, Florida Atlantic, & 1 FCC team, Tennessee Tech, Ohio Valley Conference, (OVC). I often hear that Minnesota finished 2nd in the B-10 West to Wisconsin, that statement is incorrect; Goldy tied Bucky for the West Division (both the U of M & the UW finished 7-2) however, the result losing to the Badgers, 38-17, UM lost the tie breaker!

Nebraska: the Cornhuskers are the 3rd team from the B-10 not to schedule a P5 NC opponent. In my humble opinion, this is a short-sighted approach to scheduling for a team that likes to see itself in the postseasons’ Top Four! Nebraska is the 20th best recruiting program in the nation (established through a 4 year composit from 3 sights; ESPN, Rivals, & 247) and the best recruiting program in the B-10 West Division. They are lucky that have drawn OSU (@ home) & PSU (@ Happy Valley) from the East in 2020. If they were to win the B-10 with one loss, their NC schedule will do nothing to bolster their selection into the Top Four! The Huskers should be playing former B-12 rivals; good for travel, good for the gate ($), and good for strength of schedule!

Northwestern: the Cats are the 4th (3rd from the West Division) and thankfully the last B-10 team to not have scheduled a NC P5 for the 2020 season! NW plays 2 G5’s, Tulane (AAC) & Central Michigan (MAC) and 1 FCS team, Morgan State, from the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (MEAC). While the schedule is weak, given the fact that it took the Cats 9 games to finely get its first B-10 win in 2019 ( Illinois, 29-10), let’s just call the 2020 schedule timely!

Ohio State: the Bucks, in week 2, travel out to the west coast to take on Oregon, the defending PAC-12 & Rose Bowl champs! Provided Brutus wins the B-10, a win in this game is a  really good resume builder for OSU’s inclusion in the Top Four discussion. The Bucks also kick-it-off against 2 G5’s Bowling Green (MAC) & Buffalo (MAC). OSU has Michigan State & Penn State in back 2 back weeks, both games are on the road! Brutus has beaten ‘Big Blue’ 15 of 16, while Michigan has only beat Ohio State 3 times this century, so much for a rivalry!

Penn State: the Nittany Lions play 1 P5, @ Virginia Tech (ACC) & 2 G5’s, Kent State (MAC) & San Jose State, Mountain West (MWC), both games are in Happy Valley. This NC schedule will not hurt the Nittany Lions consideration for a spot in the Top Four! They have a 3 week stretch from Oct. 3rd thru Oct. 24th, where they face off against Michigan on the road, followed by Iowa & OSU @ home! The V-Tech affair in Blacksburg and those 3 Saturday days in October, should determine the Lions fate in the ‘second season’!

Purdue: the Boilers take on 1 P5, Boston College and 2 G5’s, yet G5’s only in name. Memphis (AAC) represented the G5’s in the New Year’s 6 Cotton Bowl in 2019, signifying their place as the best team in all of the Group of Five. Air Force, who lost only 2 games last year, one to an 11-2 Boise State, 30-19, & to an 11-2 Navy squad, 34-25, while beating 2 P-12 teams, Colorado, 30-23 & Washington State, 31-21 . This schedule will not hurt their bowl considerations! Purdue, arguably, will return the best combo of explosive players in the B-10, slot receiver, Rondale Moore & Wide Receiver, David Bell.

Rutgers: has a balanced NC schedule, 1 P5, Syracuse (ACC), 1 G5, Temple (AAC), & 1 FCS, Monmouth University, Big South (BSC). This NC schedule, coupled with their B-10 East schedule, will help them if they were to become bowl eligible in 2020!

Wisconsin: the Badgers have scheduled one of the best games of the 2020 season! Bucky welcomes Notre Dame to legendary Lambeau Field, home to the Green Bay Packers! What most Wisconsinites know, is that Earl Louis ‘Curly’ Lambeau, was a player/coach for the Packers from 1919 to 1929 and the GB HC & GM from 1919 to 1949! What is less known, is that Curly Lambeau played for legendary Irish coach, Knute Rockne, in 1918! The Badgers scheduling this game have truly woke up the echoes and put themselves on college football’s center stage. If Bucky wins this game and beats OSU or PSU in the B-10 championship, for the 1st time, they could make the CFP with a loss! UW also plays a dangerous Appalachian State (SBC) & an FCS team, Southern Illinois!

Tomorrow we will look at the ACC 2020 schedule!

 

 

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Power 5 Schedules For 2020 Season

Here is what I am hearing for the 2020 season. 25% chance the season will begin as scheduled, 25% possibility it will be cancelled, and 50% chance the games will be modified. A later start, fewer games, play w/o fans, etc. So more to follow in the coming weeks!

As you review the schedules, please note they are color coded to help you get a sense of a specific team’s strength of schedule; Red is a conference game, yellow is a non-conference tilt vs a Power 5 opponent, Green is a non-conference contest vs a Group of 5 opponent, & Blue is an FCS (Football Championship Subdivision / or 63 scholarship program) team! The FBS (Football Bowl Subdivision) includes both the Power 5 Conferences as well as the G5 Conferences.

The SEC, which we are presenting first, plays 8 conference & 4 non-conference games. Typically, the teams in this conference, play 1 P5 (yellow), 2 G5’s (green) & 1 FCS (blue) opponent. If you see 2 yellow dots, that would indicate that team has scheduled up and is playing 2 power 5 clubs (Georgia is the only SEC team that is playing 2 P5’s) every other team plays 1 P5, 2 G5’s & 1 FCS

The Mighty SEC: 

To access the pages below, simply highlight and click and it will take you directly to the SEC schedule page or SCFP home page!

The site for those of you that have not visited Sully’s College Football Page can be accessed at:

http://www.sullyscollegefootballpage.com/index.cfm

Here is the 2020 SEC schedule! As I am a staff of one please let me know if you see an error (as I do make them) or leave a comment as / if the spirit moves you.

http://www.sullyscollegefootballpage.com/Football_Stats/Conference_Listings.cfm?MCID=1&DVID=6

Some games of interest:

Bama opens with USC @ AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX. Last meeting was in 2016, the Tide rolled & rolled & rolled, 52-7!

Arkansas travels north to take on the Irish. This will be a good measuring tool for Sam Pittman as he takes over as the ‘hogs’ head man!

Auburn heads northeast to battle UNC & Mack Brown!

Florida ends its season against in-state-rival Florida State in Tallahassee, the Seminoles will be much improved under Mike Norvell’s, (Memphis HC in 2019) leadership!

Georgia begins its 2020 season with 1 P5 opponent, Virginia and ends with another G-Tech, a P5 from the ACC!

Kentucky ‘laces em up’ vs in-state-rival Louisville in its season finale.

LSU vs Texas in Louisiana, this may be the best non-conference of the 2020 season (TX QB, Sam Ehlinger is back & LSU QB Joe Burrow is gone). This one should be fun!!

Mississippi State & new coach, Mike Leach, take on NC State & Dave Doeren, State started the season 4-2 & then lost 6 in a row to end their 2019 campaign.

Missouri battles BYU in Provo, UT, the Tigers have a new coach for the 2020 season, Eli Drinkwitz, fresh off a 1 year stint at Appalachian State.

Ole Miss and the Lane Train (Lane Kiffin @ Florida Atlantic last year) welcome Baylor and Dave Aranda (who was the DC @ LSU last season) to Oxford, MS! Mr. Offense (Kiffin) vs Mr. Defense (Aranda) this game has intrigue already!

South Carolina vs Clemson to end their respective 2020 seasons, SC had won 5 in a row (2009 through 2013) and now Clemson has won 6 straight (2014 through 2019)!

Tennessee travels west to kick it off vs Oklahoma, this could launch the Vols back into the national conversation, as they are making steady progress under Jeremy Pruitt’s instruction.

Texas A&M has invited an old B-12 rival to College Station, Colorado, who is also playing in a different league, the Pac-12!

Vandy will head west to take on a B-12 opponent, Kansas State, in week three!

I am still working on the site’s many features and will be updating from today until kickoff, whenever that may be? I’ll keep u in the loop . . . as I get caught up!

Tomorrow we will look at the B-10!

If U R able; Stay Home! Stay Safe!

 

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College Football Playoff Semi-Final Game

The 2019 Fiesta Bowl (January) was a college football bowl game that was played on January 1, 2019. It was the 48th edition of the Fiesta Bowl, and was one of the 2018–19 bowl games concluding the 2018 FBS football season. This year the Fiesta Bowl will play host to one of the two CFP Semi-Final games!

Teams:  Ohio State (B-10) 13-0 / Clemson (ACC) 13-0

Bowl Location: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ 

Day, Date & Time: Saturday, December, 28, 2019, 7:00 CST

Network: ESPN

Best Win(s): OSU: beat Wisconsin (2) 38-7 & 34-21, Clemson: beat Texas A&M (7-5) 24-10!

Worst Loss(es): OSU: Undefeated; Clemson: Undefeated! 

Common Opponents: None

Vegas Hot$heets Favorite: Clemson -2.5 (Current Line)

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is, say Notre Dame is playing Wisconsin … we take ND’s total yards on offense, add it to the number the Badgers give up on defense, we get a total and then divide the total by 2 to get an average. We then invert the process, we now take Wisconsin’s total offense, add it to what the Irish give up on defense, get a 2nd total, and then divide that number by 2, to get the second average! The greater number (with the exception of Turnovers, lower # wins) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed: 1) Total Yards, 2) Rushing, 3) Passing, 4) Scoring, 5) 3rd Down (Conversions /Stops), 6) Turnovers, 7) Red Zone Scores (TD’s & FG), & 8) Red Zone TD’s (only TD’s)!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Ohio State | Buckeyes Clemson | Tigers
Offense VS Defense 397 +1 390.5
Passing Off VS Def 205 214.5 +1
Rushing Off VS Def 192 +1 176.5
Scoring Off VS Def 30 +1 30 +1
Turnovers Off VS Def 1.615 1.5 +1
3rd Conv Off VS Def 44.05 +1 38.25
Red Zone Scores 80.5 +1 76
Red Zone TDs 61 +1 57
Totals 6 3

Ohio State WINS Trophy

Historic Football Matchups

These teams have lined up against one another on 3 occasions! The 1st meeting was in 1978, the Tigers  won 17-15. The 2nd meeting was in the 2014 Orange Bowl, another Tiger win, 40-35. The final meeting was in the 2016 CFP Semi-Final in Glendale, AZ; Clemson pounded OSU, 31-0!

Turnover Margin: Clemson: 28 Take-A-ways to 14 Give-A-ways = +14 / OSU 25 Take-A-ways to 14 Give-A-ways = +11! Advantage Clemson

3rd Down Conversions: OSU: 94 conversions on 165 attempts (57.0% / Ranked 1st in the Country) Clemson: 74/156 (47.4% / Ranked 14th Nationally) Significant   Advantage OSU

3rd Down Stops: OSU: 55 stops on 192 attempts (73.4% of the time OSU gets off the Field on 3rd Down / Ranked 4th Nationally) Clemson: 60/198 (69.7% of the time Clemson gets off the Field / Ranked 11th Nationally) Slight Advantage: OSU!

Total Offense: Clemson: 547.7 YPG; Ranked 3rd in the Country / OSU 531.0 YPG; Ranked 5th in the Country. Advantage: Clemson

Total Defense: Clemson: is giving up 244.7 YPG (Ranked 1st) / OSU: allows 247.6 YPG (Ranked 2nd) Slight Advantage: Clemson

Rush Offense: OSU: rushed the ball for 272.2 YPG (5th) / Clemson rushes the ball 252.9 YPG (9th) Advantage: OSU

Run Defense: OSU: is giving up 99.5 YPG (7th) / Clemson: is giving up 106.2 YPG (9th) Advantage: OSU

Passing Offense: Clemson is averaging 294.8 YPG (2oth in the Country) / OSU is 258.8 (41st in the Country) Advantage: Clemson

Passing Defense: Clemson allows 138.5 YPG  (1st)/ OSU is giving up 148.1 YPG (2nd). Advantage: Clemson

Sully Says: Clemson wins & covers the 2.5

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College Football Playoff Semi-Final Game

The Peach Bowl is an annual college football bowl game played in Atlanta since December 1968. Since 1997, it has been sponsored by Chick-fil-A and officially known as the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl. From 2006 to 2013, it was officially referred to as simply the Chick-fil-A Bowl. This year, the Peach Bowl hosts, along with Fiesta Bowl, one of the two College Football Semi-Final games!

Teams:  Oklahoma (B-12) 12-1 / LSU (SEC) 13-0

Bowl Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA 

Day, Date & Time: Saturday, December, 28, 2019, 3:00 CST

Network: ESPN

Best Win(s): OU: beat Baylor (2) 34-31 & 30-23 OT, LSU: beat Alabama (10-2) 46-41!

Worst Loss(es): PSU: to Kansas State (8-4), 48-41; LSU: Undefeated! 

Common Opponents: Texas: OU beat the Horns, 34-27 / LSU won 45-38!

Vegas Hot$heets Favorite: LSU -13.5 (Current Line)

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is, say Notre Dame is playing Wisconsin … we take ND’s total yards on offense, add it to the number the Badgers give up on defense, we get a total and then divide the total by 2 to get an average. We then invert the process, we now take Wisconsin’s total offense, add it to what the Irish give up on defense, get a 2nd total, and then divide that number by 2, to get the second average! The greater number (with the exception of Turnovers, lower # wins) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed: 1) Total Yards, 2) Rushing, 3) Passing, 4) Scoring, 5) 3rd Down (Conversions /Stops), 6) Turnovers, 7) Red Zone Scores (TD’s & FG), & 8) Red Zone TD’s (only TD’s)!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

LSU | Tigers Oklahoma | Sooners
Offense VS Defense 442.5 447.5 +1
Passing Off VS Def 293 +1 262.5
Rushing Off VS Def 150 185.5 +1
Scoring Off VS Def 36.5 +1 32
Turnovers Off VS Def 0.885 +1 1.46
3rd Conv Off VS Def 40.6 41.1 +1
Red Zone Scores 95 +1 82.5
Red Zone TD’s 70 +1 64.5
Totals 5 3

LSU WINS Trophy

Historic Football Matchups

These teams have laced ’em up on only 2 occasions! The 1st meeting was in 1950, the Sooners won 35-0. The 2nd meeting was in the 2004 Sugar Bowl (2003 season BCS Championship Game), LSU won 21-7.

Turnover Margin: LSU 20 Take-A-ways to 12 Give-A-ways = +8 / OU 11 Take-A-ways to 18 Give-A-ways = -7! Significant Advantage LSU

3rd Down Conversions: OU: 72 Conversions on 142 Penetrations (50.7% / Ranked 5th in the Country) LSU: 80/158 (50.6% / Ranked 6th Nationally) Slight Advantage OU

3rd Down Stops: OU: 50 stops on 166 penetrations (69.9% of the time OU gets off the Field on 3rd Down / Ranked 9th Nationally) LSU: 57/189 (69.8% of the time LSU gets of the Field / Ranked 10th Nationally) Slight Advantage OU!

Total Offense: LSU: 554.4 YPG; Ranked 1st in the Country / OU 554.2 YPG; Ranked 2nd in the Country. Slight Advantage LSU

Total Defense: OU: is giving up 330.6 YPG (Ranked 25th) / LSU: allows 341.3 YPG (Ranked 32nd) Slight Advantage OU

Rush Offense: OU: rushed the ball for 251.2 YPG / LSU rushes the ball 167.5 YPG Significant Advantage OU

Run Defense: LSU is giving up 119.6 YPG / OU is giving up 132.1 YPG. Advantage LSU

Passing Offense: LSU is averaging 386.6 YPG (2nd in the Country) / OU is 303.0 (16th in the Country) Advantage LSU

Passing Defense: OU allows 198.5 YPG / LSU is giving up 221.7 YPG. Advantage OU

Sully Says: LSU wins but does not cover the 13.5

Posted in #1 Uncategorized |

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic

The Cotton Bowl Classic, also simply known as the Cotton Bowl, is an American college football bowl game that has been held annually in the Dallas–Fort Worth metroplex since January 1, 1937. The game was originally played at its namesake stadium in Dallas before moving to AT&T Stadium in nearby Arlington in 2010.

Teams:  Penn State (B-10) 10-2 / Memphis (AAC) 12-1

Bowl Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX 

Day, Date & Time: Saturday, December, 28, 2019, 11:00 CST

Network: ESPN

Best Win(s): PSU: beat Michigan (9-3) 28-21, Memphis: beat Texas (7-5) 23-21!

Worst Loss(es): PSU: to OSU (13-0), 28-17; Memphis: to Temple (8-4) 30-28! 

Common Opponents: None

Vegas Hot$heets Favorite: PSU -7.0 (Opening Line)

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is, say Notre Dame is playing Wisconsin … we take ND’s total yards on offense, add it to the number the Badgers give up on defense, we get a total and then divide the total by 2 to get an average. We then invert the process, we now take Wisconsin’s total offense, add it to what the Irish give up on defense, get a 2nd total, and then divide that number by 2, to get the second average! The greater number (with the exception of Turnovers, lower # wins) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed: 1) Total Yards, 2) Rushing, 3) Passing, 4) Scoring, 5) 3rd Down (Conversions /Stops), 6) Turnovers, 7) Red Zone Scores (TD’s & FG), & 8) Red Zone TD’s (only TD’s)!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Penn State | Nittany Lions Memphis | Tigers
Offense VS Defense 387 405.5 +1
Passing Off VS Def 215 258.5 +1
Rushing Off VS Def 173 +1 147
Scoring Off VS Def 29 +1 27.5
Turnovers Off VS Def 1.23 +1 1.525
3rd Conv Off VS Def 39.85 40.8 +1
Red Zone Scores 90 +1 81.5
Red Zone TDs 64 +1 56.5
Totals 5 3

Penn State WINS Trophy

Historic Football Matchups

1st Meeting between these schools!

This is the G5 representative program in the New Year’s 6 Bowl Games!

PSU has the advantage in the Turnover Margin Category, PSU has generated 20 take-a-ways to 13 give-a-ways while the Tigers even 18, TO forced to 18 lost!

The Money Down conversions belongs to Memphis 46.3% conversion rate (82/177) while PSU 41.9% (159 attempts to 66 conversions). While 3rd sown stops belong to PSU getting their offense back on the field 64.7% (66 stops /187 attempts) while Memphis comes off the field 61.4% of the time (76/197)!

Memphis rushes the ball for 196.2 YPG to PSU’s 173.5 YPG! Stopping the run its PSU (ranked 5th in the country) allowing 97.9 YPG to Memphis’ allowing 171.6 YPG!

Sully Says: PSU wins but does not Cover! Memphis is playing for the entire Group of 5!

Posted in #1 Uncategorized |

Camping World Bowl

The 2019 Camping World Bowl is a college football bowl game that will be played on December 28, 2019, with kickoff scheduled for 12:00 p.m. EST on ABC. It will be the 30th edition of the Camping World Bowl, and will be one of the 2019–20 bowl games concluding the 2019 FBS football season.

Teams:  Notre Dame (IND) 10-2 / Iowa State (P-12) 7-5

Bowl Location: Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Fl 

Day, Date & Time: Saturday, December, 28, 2019, 11:00 CST

Network: ABC

Best Win(s): ND: beat Virginia (9-5) 35-20, ISU: beat Texas (7-5) 23-21!

Worst Loss(es): AF: lost to Michigan (9-3), 45-14; ISU: lost to OSU (8-4) 34-27! 

Common Opponents: None

Vegas Hot$heets Favorite: ND -3.5 (Opening Line)

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is, say Notre Dame is playing Wisconsin … we take ND’s total yards on offense, add it to the number the Badgers give up on defense, we get a total and then divide the total by 2 to get an average. We then invert the process, we now take Wisconsin’s total offense, add it to what the Irish give up on defense, get a 2nd total, and then divide that number by 2, to get the second average! The greater number (with the exception of Turnovers, lower # wins) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed: 1) Total Yards, 2) Rushing, 3) Passing, 4) Scoring, 5) 3rd Down (Conversions /Stops), 6) Turnovers, 7) Red Zone Scores (TD’s & FG), & 8) Red Zone TD’s (only TD’s)!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Notre Dame | Fighting Irish Iowa State | Cyclones
Offense VS Defense 395.5 +1 391.5
Passing Off VS Def 240 241 +1
Rushing Off VS Def 156 +1 150.5
Scoring Off VS Def 31 +1 26.5
Turnovers Off VS Def 1 +1 1.67
3rd Conv Off VS Def 41.95 +1 35.25
Red Zone Scores 90 95 +1
Red Zone TD’s 68 +1 67
Totals 6 2

Notre Dame WINS Trophy

Historic Football Matchups

1st Meeting between these Programs

ISU QB, Brock Purdy completed 66.3% of his passes (295/445) a 27/9 ratio, TD to INT, while passing for 3,760 yards. The Irish will counter with Ian Book, who passed for 2,787 Yards, a 36/6 ratio, & completing 59.1% of his passes (220/371).

The Irish convert on 3rd down and stop their opponent on the money down more effectively than the Cyclones (Conversions: ND: 41.9% to ISU’s 35.2% / Stops: ND 67.8% to ISU’s 57.4%). This translates to the Irish getting their offense back on the field about 70% of the time to the Cyclones 60%.

ND has turned their opponents over 15 times more than they have given the ball up (26 gained to 11 lost), while ISU Turnover Margin is negative 1 (13 Gained to 14 lost)

In the run game, ND rushes the ball more efficiently 177 to 140, while ISU stops the run more effectively, 135 YPG to ND’s 161 YPG.

In the RZ; ISU has 51 penetrations & 48 scores to the Irish’s 51/47, however, ND has scored more TD’s, 40 to the Cyclones 37. On RZ Defense, ND is one of the worst team’s in the country statistically, when defending the short field. They are ranked 129/130 (28 penetration 27 scores, 10/27 scores were FGs) ISU is ranked @ 104/130 (33 penetrations 29 scores, 10 of the 29 scores were FGs)

Sully Says: Take the Irish and give ISU the 3.5!

Posted in #1 Uncategorized |

Cheez-It Bowl

The Cheez-It Bowl is an NCAA FBS college football bowl game that has been played in the state of Arizona since 1989

Teams:  Air Force (MWC) 10-2 / Washington State (P-12) 6-6

Bowl Location: Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ 

Day, Date & Time: Friday, December, 27, 2019, 9:15 CST

Network: ESPN

Best Win(s): AF: beat Hawaii (10-5) 56-26, WSU: beat Minnesota (10-2) 23-19!

Worst Loss(es): AF: lost to Navy (10-2), 34-25; WSU: lost to UCLA  (4-8), 67-65! 

Common Opponents: Colorado: AF beat Colorado, 30-23; WSU beat Buffs, 41-10!

Vegas Hot$heets Favorite: AF -3 (Opening Line)

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is, say Notre Dame is playing Wisconsin … we take ND’s total yards on offense, add it to the number the Badgers give up on defense, we get a total and then divide the total by 2 to get an average. We then invert the process, we now take Wisconsin’s total offense, add it to what the Irish give up on defense, get a 2nd total, and then divide that number by 2, to get the second average! The greater number (with the exception of Turnovers, lower # wins) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed: 1) Total Yards, 2) Rushing, 3) Passing, 4) Scoring, 5) 3rd Down (Conversions /Stops), 6) Turnovers, 7) Red Zone Scores (TD’s & FG), & 8) Red Zone TD’s (only TD’s)!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Washington State | Cougars Air Force | Falcons
Offense VS Defense 416.5 441 +1
Passing Off VS Def 326 +1 208.5
Rushing Off VS Def 90.5 232.5 +1
Scoring Off VS Def 29.5 32.5 +1
Turnovers Off VS Def 1.625 1.46 +1
3rd Conv Off VS Def 42.05 49.3 +1
Red Zone Scores 80 86 +1
Red Zone TD’s 59.5 69 +1
Totals 1 7

Air Force WINS Trophy

Historic Football Matchups

1st meeting between these Universities!

Under current AF Coach, Troy Calhoun, the Falcons are 2-7 vs Power 5 Opponents. However, one of those wins came early this season, a 30-23 win over Colorado.

AF is 2nd in the Nation on 3rd Down conversions @ 54.8% coupled with WSU being 98th on 3rd down stops 42.4%. A good indicator that AF’s offense will be able to maintain drives.

Neither team was very effective in TO Margin; AF was a -2, while Washington State turned the ball over 24 times to forcing 18 Turnovers for a negative 6!

AF averages 2 sacks per game (24), while WSU give up 170 rushing yards per game

The Key to this game for AF will be their ability to control the Cougars explosive plays, not only with their defense, but with time of possession on offense!

WSU QB, Anthony Gordon led the nation in passing yards (5,228) was 2nd in TD’s 45 (only LSU’s Burrow threw more, 48)

Sully Says: Take the Cougars and the 3!

Posted in #1 Uncategorized |

San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl

The Holiday Bowl is a post-season NCAA Division I Football Bowl Subdivision college football bowl game that has been played annually since 1978 at SDCCU Stadium in San Diego, California, United States. Since the 2014 edition, it has featured a match-up of PAC-12 and Big Ten teams!

Teams:  USC (P-12) 8-4 / Iowa (B-10) 9-3

Bowl Location: SDCCU Stadium, San Diego, CA 

Day, Date & Time: Friday, December, 27, 2019, 7:00 CST

Network: FOX Sports

Best Win(s): USC: beat Arizona State (7-5) 31-26, Iowa: beat Minnesota (10-2) 23-19!

Worst Loss(es): USC: lost to Oregon (11-2), 56-24; Iowa: lost to Wisconsin  (10-3), 24-22! 

Common Opponents: None

Vegas Hot$heets Favorite: Iowa -2.5 (Opening Line)

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is, say Notre Dame is playing Wisconsin … we take ND’s total yards on offense, add it to the number the Badgers give up on defense, we get a total and then divide the total by 2 to get an average. We then invert the process, we now take Wisconsin’s total offense, add it to what the Irish give up on defense, get a 2nd total, and then divide that number by 2, to get the second average! The greater number (with the exception of Turnovers, lower # wins) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed: 1) Total Yards, 2) Rushing, 3) Passing, 4) Scoring, 5) 3rd Down (Conversions /Stops), 6) Turnovers, 7) Red Zone Scores (TD’s & FG), & 8) Red Zone TD’s (only TD’s)!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

USC | Trojans Iowa | Hawkeyes
Offense VS Defense 383.5 392 +1
Passing Off VS Def 262 +1 237
Rushing Off VS Def 122 155 +1
Scoring Off VS Def 23 26 +1
Turnovers Off VS Def 1.585 1.29 +1
3rd Conv Off VS Def 40.25 +1 38.6
Red Zone Scores 81.5 89.5 +1
Red Zone TD’s 52 55.5 +1
Totals 2 6

Iowa WINS Trophy

Historic Football Matchups

These teams last met in the 2003 Orange Bowl, a 38-17 SC win. The Trojans lead the series 7 games to 2 games. USC has won 6 in a row & Iowa’s last win was in series was in 1961, @ the Coliseum, 35-34.

This game is one of the best in this 2019-20 Bowl Season. SC is the drama king of the 2019 season, QB injuries (3 different QB’s started for the Trojan’s (JT Daniels, Matt Fink, & Kedon Slovis). Then Kedon Slovis emerges as a star, passing for over 3,000 yards, 28 TD’s to 9 picks.

Every week SC’s Coach, Clay Helton was going to be fired, then he is not fired … but really not extended either … he is put in a limbo state for the 2020 season… a wait and see?  As a result, SC has put together its worst recruiting class for 2020 season … maybe ever!

This game will be a struggle between one team that wants it played in space (SC), while the other team wants this game settled in the meat house (Hawks)!

SC’s receivers, Michael Pittman, Amon Ra Saint Brown & Tyler Vaughns can and will overwhelm the Hawk secondary. Unless, the Iowa front (AJ Epenesa & Company) can hurry/sack Slovis, if not, it will be a long day for the Hawks!

That said, if the Iowa D can keep the Trojans from scoring outside the 20, the Air Raid (a 5 wide offensive set) can struggle when funneled into a smaller vertical field! Weird, but true!

Time of possession (Iowa’s run game and short passing game) is an important element for a Hawks win, as is limiting SC’s explosive plays!

This game should be fun!

Sully Says: Take the 2.5 & SC in this one!

 

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