Sully's Big Blog! Commentary on College Football, Weekly Games, And Strange Statistics!

Sully’s Four Pack of Winners; Week 12!

Last week we went 3-1! We took ND -13 @ BC, Wisconsin -2.5 @ the Big House vs Michigan, & Miami FL +2.5 @ VT, The Canes won outright, while the Irish & the Badgers won and covered! USC won, but did not cover, our sole loss!

Sully’s College Football Page began last week @ 11-11-1 vs the Spread. Our 3-1 record leaves us @ 14-11-1 for 2020 and of course, we like to remind everyone, we began the season 0-3, with one game cancelled do to Covid-19! That translates to 14 wins in our last 23 picks!

Here are this weeks picks. Please note: SCFP picks are based on the opening lines of the Vegas Hot$heets. http://www.vegashotsheet.com/LiveLines-NCAA.html . So here we go!!

Indiana 4-0 @ Ohio State 3-0, TV: 11:00 / Fox; Favorite: OSU -19.5 The Bucks have beaten the Hoosiers 24 straight time (25 if you count the 2011 game, a 34-20 OSU win that was vacated). The Bucks lead the overall series, 75-12-5 and hammered IU last year, 51-10, @ Indiana’s Memorial Stadium. In three of the last five games, the Buckeyes did not cover the spread identified in bold (2015, Bucks won, 34-27 line -22; 2016, OSU 38 IU 17 spread OSU -28; 2017 Ohio won, 49-21, line Bucks -20, 2018, State won, 49-26, Line was Bucks -26; 2019, OSU won again, 51-10, Line was -17), In fact, OSU is 0-5 Against The Spread (ATS) in their last 5 @ home vs the Hoosiers! Sully says: A shocked, take IU and the 19.5 in the Shoe, the Bucks win but do not cover for the 6th straight time!

Wisconsin 2-0 @ Northwestern 4-0; TV: 2:30 / ABC; Favorite: Bucky -6.5. Last time the Badgers were in Evanston (2018) they were ranked 10th in the AP and trailed the ‘Cats at half, 14-10. NW then scored 17 unanswered points to carry the day, a 31-17 Northwestern victory! Wisconsin has been the favorite in every game they have played vs Wildcats since 1988. during that time, Bucky has a surprising low, 14 wins in those 25 games that they were favored vs Northwestern. This translates to NW winning straight-up (w/o points), 11 times in the 25 games played since that 1988 game. From 2009 forward, the teams have played 9 times with the Badgers holding a slight edge, 5 wins to 4 losses! The UW has won 3 of the last 4 games by victory margin that would have covered the 6.5 in each of those wins! Sully Says; this game is must see TV, take Bucky, Mertz, & Badger Defense and give the Cats the 6.5 @ home!

Oklahoma St 5-1/4-1 @ Oklahoma 5-2/4-2; TV: 6:30 / ABC; Favorite: OU -9.5. In the last five years vs OSU, OU is 5-0 straight up & 4-1 ATS. OSU current coach, Mike Gundy has coached in the Bedlam Game 15 times and has only managed to win twice. These facts all seem to point to going with OU in this game, but in the words of Lee Corso, “Not so fast my friend”! OU has lost to both Iowa State, 37-30 & Kansas State, 38-35, while the Cowboys, beat ISU, 24-21 & Kansas State, 20-18. OSU’s only loss this season, was to Texas, 41-34 in overtime, compared to OU win over Texas, 53-45, in 3 OTs’. Sully Says: 9.5 is to many points in this game, take OSU and the points, OU may very well win this game but they will not cover!

USC 2-0 @ Utah 0-0: TV: 9:30 / ESPN; Favorite: USC -2.5. We have picked USC to cover 11 & 13 point spreads the past 2 weeks and while they have won, they did not cover in either game! So why are we back involving the ‘Men of Troy’ for a third straight week? For the following reasons; the Trojans are giving the Utes 2.5 points, SC is unbeaten in 2020, and Utah has yet to play a game in 2020. USC has won 3 of the last 5 games these teams have played since 2015. Sully Says: take SC and give the Utes the 2.5 in their 1st game of 2020!

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Sully’s 4 pack of winners for week 11

SCFP is 11-11-1 vs the spread! We started 0-3 and have been 11-8-1 in our last 20 picks!

ND 7-0 @ BC 5-3: This game will be played with a ton of adrenalin from both sided of the field. The difference will be ND’s ability to run the ball and stop the run! Sully Says: take ND and give BC the 13 points!

USC 1-0 @ Arizona 0-0: We took the Trojans last week and while they did not cover, they scored 14 points in the last couple of minutes to pull out a 28-27 win over Arizona State. Look for the Men of Troy to pick up where they left off last week! Sully says; take Troy and give the Wildcats the 13 points!

Wisconsin 1-0 @ Michigan 1-2: The Badgers have not played a game in 20 plus days and Michigan, at some level, wishes they hadn’t played a game in the last 20 days! The Wolves have lost their past two outings, MSU beat them, 27-24 and Indiana popped ’em, 38-21! The line opened with Bucky giving U of M 2.5 points! Sully says; take the Badgers and give the Wolverines the 2.5 points @ home!

Miami 5-1 @ VT 4–3: The Canes have beaten the Hokies in 4 of the last 5 meetings! This includes the last two years, 28-10 in 2018 and in 2019, the hurricanes blasted V-Tech, 38-14, in Blacksburg! The last 7 games have been decided by double digits, with VT’s last win coming in 2016, 37-16! Sully says: Take Miami and the 2.5 points!

Enjoy the Games!

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Best Games for 11/14/2020

Miami 5-1 @ VT 4-3;. TV: 11:00 / ESPN; Favorite: VT-2.5

Penn State 0-3 @ Nebraska 0-2: TV: 11:00 / FS1; Favorite: PSU -3

TCU 3-3 @ West Virginia 4-3; TV: 11:00 / FOX; Favorite: WV -3

ND 7-0 @ BC 5-3; TV: 2:30 / ABC; Favorite: ND -13

USC 1-0 @ Arizona 0-0: TV: 2:30 / FOX; Favorite: USC -13

Colorado 0-1 @ Stanford 1-0: TV: 2:30 / ESPN; Favorite: Stanford -6

Northwestern 3-0 @ Purdue 2-0: TV: 4:00 / BTN; Favorite: Pick ’em Game

Arkansas 3-3 @ Florida 4-1; TV: 6:00 / ESPN; Favorite: Florida -17

Wisconsin 1-0 @ Michigan 1-2; TV: 6:30 / ABC; Favorite: UW -2.5

15 Games are have been canceled in week 11 do to Covid-19 outbreaks!

All lines are from the Vegas Hot$heets and all are opening lines!

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11/14/ 2020 Games listed by Conference

ACC Games 11/14/2020

Miami FL @ V-Tech 11:00 / ESPN 2

Wake Forest @ UNC 11:00 / ACCN

Notre Dame @ Boston College 2:30 / ABC       

Louisville @ UVA 2:30 / ACCN

Pittsburgh @ G-Tech 6:00 / ESPN 3

Florida State @ NC State 6:30 / ACCN

AAC 11/14/2020

Army @ Tulane 11:00 / ESPN+

South Florida @ Houston 2:00 / ESPN+           

Memphis @ Navy 2:30 ESPNU

SMU @ Tulsa 6:00 / ESPN 2

Temple @ UCF 6:30 / ESPNU

B-12 11/14/ 2020

TCU @ West Virginia 11:00 / FOX

Baylor @ Texas Tech 3:00 FS!    

B-Ten 11/14/2020

Penn State @ Nebraska 11:00 / FS1     

Illinois @ Rutgers 11:00 / BTN

Indiana @ MSU 11:00 / ABC

Ohio State @ Maryland 2:30 / BTN

Northwestern @ Purdue 6:30 / BTN

Wisconsin @ Michigan 6:30 / ABC

C-USA 11/14/2020

Middle TN @ Marshall 11:00 / CBSSN

UTEP @ UTSA 2:00 / ESPN+      

North Texas @ UAB 2:00 / Local 

Rice @ La Tech 2:30 / ESPN 3

S-ern Miss @ W. Kentucky 2:30 / CBSSN

Independents 11/14/2020

Western Carolina @ Liberty 11:00 / ESPN 3

Army @ Tulane 11:00 / ESPN+

MAC (Play their Games on Tuesday, 11/10 & Wednesday 11/11)

MWC 11/14/2020

Fresno State @ Utah St 1:30 / FS2

Hawaii @ SDSU 3:00 / Local

Nevada @ N. Mexico 5:30 / FS2 

UNLV @ San Jose St 9:30 FS2  

PAC 12 11/14/2020

USC @ Arizona 2:30 / FOX

Colorado @ Stanford 2:30 / ESPN 2

Oregon @ Wash State 6:00 / FOX

Utah @ UCLA 9:30 / FS1

California @ Arizona State 9:30 / ESPN 2

Oregon S @ Washington 10:00 / FS1

SEC 11/14/2020

Georgia @ Missouri 11:00 / ESPN          

Vanderbilt @ UK 11:00 / SEC Network  

Texas A&M @ TN 2:30 / ESPN

Auburn @ Miss State 3:00 / SEC Network

Alabama @ LSU 5:00 / CBS

Arkansas @ Florida 6:00 / ESPN

S. Carolina @ Ole Miss 6:30 / SEC Network     

SBC 11/14/2020

Coastal Carolina @ Troy 11:00 / ESPNU          

South Alabama @ Louisiana 11:00 / ESPN+   

Georgia St @ App State 1:30 / ESPN+   

ULM @ AR State 2:00 / ESPN 3  

Texas St @ GA Southern 2:30 / ESPN 3           

FCS Games 11/14/2020       

E Kentucky @ C Arkansas TBD                          

AZ Christian @ Abilene Christian TBD 

Pitt St @ SF Austin TBD       

As always ‘Enjoy the Games’

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Sully’s 4 Pack of Winners

Clemson 7-0 @ Notre Dame 6-0; TV: 6:30 / NBC; Favorite: Clemson -5! This is the best game of 2020 and the best game in the ACC since 2013, when a 6-0 FSU traveled to a 6-0 Clemson. The Seminoles blasted the Tigers, 51-14, on their way to a 14-0 season & the national championship! Clemson finished 11-2 that year! The Irish are 1-3 all-time vs Clemson. their only win vs the Tigers was in 1977, 21-17, a year ND won the National Championship. Clemson’s last win vs the Fighting Irish was in 2018, 30-3, a year Clemson won the National Championship. ND comes into the game with the nation’s longest winning streak, 12 straight and 22 wins in a row at home! Clemson counters with 14 straight wins on the road and 28 consecutive wins in ACC play! Sully says: take the Irish an the 5 points in this one!

Minnesota 0-2 @ Illinois 0-2; TV: 2:30 / BTN; Favorite: Minnesota -8. The Gophers have beaten the Illini 7 of the last 10, including a, 40-17, pounding in 2019. Minnesota lost to Michigan in their opener, 49-24 and were outscored by Maryland in their 2nd game, 45-44. Illinois opened against Wisconsin, losing 45-7 and then, played well vs Purdue, before falling, 31-24! MN QB, Tanner Morgan, RB, Mo Ibrahim, and WR’s Rashad Bateman & Chris Autman-Bell overwhelm a struggling U of I defense! Sully says: take the Gophers and give the Illini the 8 points!

Georgia 4-1 vs Florida 3-1; TV: 2:30 / CBS; Favorite: The Dawgs -4! This game is played every year in Jacksonville, FL & referred to as the World’s largest Outdoor Cocktail Party! Since 2009, UGA has won 6 games, while the Gators have won 5! That said, the Dawgs have won 3 straight, by an average of 20 points. Everyone is talking about Georgia’s Defense & Florida’s Offense, I’m not; I am looking at the game with a mirror’s view. Georgia Offense & Florida’s Defense; UGA’s O has been average while the Gator’s Defense is bad. Sully Says: take that ugly bull dog and give that Gator the 4 points!

Arizona State 0-0 @ USC 0-0; TV: 11:00 / FOX; Favorite: USC -10.5! This is week 1 for the PAC 12 and a great game to kick-off their 2020 season. The Trojans have beaten Sun Devils 4 of the last 5 games, however, the teams split the last 2 games, ASU won in 2018, 38-35 while SC won in 2019, 32-26. The Devils return the starting QB, Jayden Daniels, but only 3 other starters on offense. Their O-line was hard hit by departures, losing 3 of its starting 5! SC returns 17 starters for 2020, 8 on offense & 9 on defense. On O the Trojans return one of the best QB in the country, Kedon Slovis, a 1000 yard plus receiver, Amon Ra Saint-Brown, and all 5 of their top RB’s! SC’s D-line is rated as the 2nd best in the PAC-12, behind only Oregon and their secondary returns 7 of 8 in their 2019 rotation! Sully Says: take SC and give ASU the -10-5 points.

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MAC Results in their Week One

http://sullyscollegefootballpage.com/Football_Stats/Games_Listings.cfmh

The above wed address will take you to sully’s college football page’s Game List! Once there click on the Game Date box, and a calendar will drop down, The date you want is 11/4, simply point & click, and it will take you to the MAC results.

Western Michigan 58 Akron 13: Phil Steele’s Review has the Broncos finishing 3rd in the West Division and Akron (Zips) finishing 5th is the East. WM took a 30-13 halftime lead and then outscored the Zips 28-0 in the 2nd half! The Broncos ran a balanced attack, rushing for 218 yards and passing for 266 yards! The Zips ran & passed for an anemic, 256 total yards!

Kent 27 Eastern Michigan 23: The Golden Flashes are picked (Phil Steele’s Review) 4th in the East Division, while EMU is picked 5th in the West! K-State’s run game was the difference in this MAC battle, holding the Eagles to a merger 61 yards rushing, while running the ball for 212 yards.

Buffalo 49 NIU 30: The Bulls were outgained by the NIU Huskies, 397 to 357, out performed on 3rd down conversions (36% to 33%) and penalized more in this win? That said, they won the turnover battle, 5 to 2! A plus 3 is a 42 point swing (the 21 you can now get & the 21 they can’t) enough said!

Central Michigan 30 Ohio 27: The Chippewas kicked a FG with 5:46 to play in the 4th quarter and then held off the Bobcats to secure the win. CM won the turnover battle 2-0, out gained Ohio, 427 to 345, and dominated possession time, 34 minutes to 25.

Miami OH 38 Ball State 31: One of the best games of the night. With the game tied @ 31, Miami’s DC, Spence Nowinsky’s defense intercepted a pass that set up the Redhawks winning score. A tuff loss for Ball State. The Cardinals outgained Miami 478 to 422, converted 60% of the time on 3rd down, and rushed the ball for over 300 yards! The lesson here is that the Miami’s defense kept stepping up and as a result, made the play at the end that won the game! Way to go Spence!

Toledo 38 Bowling Green 3: The Rockets are picked to win the West Division and are off to a good start. They ran over, through, & around Bowling Green’s D to the tune of 310 yards, were 11 of 20 on 3rd down (55%), & held BG offense to 267 total yards and 3 points!

Hope you had a chance to watch the games!

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Week 9 Results

http://sullyscollegefootballpage.com/Football_Stats/Games_Listings.cfm

For those of you who are new to Sully’s College Football Page, please note! To view last weeks results; click on the web address above and it will take you to our Game Page, once there, click in the Game Date Box. A calendar will drop down, last week’s games were played on, 10/29, 30, & the 31st. Simply point and click on any of the above dates, hit search, and the games will present themselves!

Use the View Game Tab on the right end of the box score and it will show you a comparison of the two teams that played last week. What the numbers should have looked like based on the pre-game stats, and then, what actually happened in the Historical data. The Historical Data shows the number of times these teams have met on the Grid Iron since 2009, who won, & a statistical readout of the game. Check it out!

The site predicted that OSU would beat PSU, 41-26 (the Bucks actually won 38-25), the numbers indicated that Ohio State would convert 52.4% of their attempts on 3rd down, (it was actually 55%), and win the Turnover battle by 1, (that is exactly what happened, PSU 1 OSU 0)! Like I said check out the View Game Tab and you can do this for all games played in week 10!

One final note: You cannot use this feature on the day of the game!

Some games of note in week 9:

Michigan State shocked Michigan, 27-24, in the Big House.

Northwestern, who finished last in the B-10 West Division in 2019, beat Iowa, 21-20, and is now 2-0 in 2020! Way to go Fitz!

Texas knocked Oklahoma State from the unbeaten ranks, 41-34, in OT. The B-12, for all intent & purpose, is out of the CFP!

Auburn slobber-knocked the defending national champs, LSU, 48-11, in what is becoming a theme in 2020, as the Tigers once feared defense is no where to be found.

Clemson survived a fired up Boston College, 34-28, playing w/o their generational QB, Trevor Lawrence.

Virginia upset, Mack Brown & North Carolina, in Charlottesville, 44-41. This was UNC 2nd loss of 2020 and may have eliminated the Heels’ from the ACC championship game.

Cincinnati, who lost twice to Memphis in 2019, (regular season meeting & the AAC Championship game), had their revenge, whippin’ the Tigers, 49-10, and are now in the American Conference drivers seat!

Ohio State dominated Penn State @ State College, 38-25, holding the Lions to 44 yards rushing and 3 of 9 on 3rd down.

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MAC Starts Tonight

The Mid-American Conference (MAC) enters the 2020 season in week 10 with all 12 teams in action tonight.

All lines are opening lines from the Vegas Hot$heets. These numbers will change as the betting dollars take specific paths. http://www.vegashotsheet.com/LiveLines-NCAA.html

Eastern Michigan 0-0 @ Kent State 0-0; TV: 5:00 / ESPN+; Favorite: Kent State -6

Western Michigan 0-0 @ Akron 0-0; TV: 5:00 / ESPN 3; Favorite: Western Michigan -16

Buffalo 0-0 @ Northern Illinois 0-0: TV: 6:00 / ESPN 2; Favorite: Buffalo -9.5

Ohio 0-0 @ Central Michigan 0-0; TV: 6:00 / ESPN; Favorite: Opened as a Pick ’em Game

Ball State 0-0 @ Miami OH 0-0; TV: 6:00 / CBSSN; Favorite: Miami -3.5 (line has now shifted to Ball State (-1.5)

Bowling Green 0-0 @ Toledo 0-0; TV: 7:00 / ESPNU; Favorite: Toledo -19.5

This year the MAC is playing a 6 game schedule, to view the entire schedule click on the link below. http://sullyscollegefootballpage.com/Football_Stats/Games_Listings.cfm

This will take you up to Sully’s College Football Page’s, ‘Game List’. Click on the Game Date Box, a calendar will be dropped, and then identify today’s date (11/4/2020) and the MAC schedule will appear for your review.

Enjoy the Games!

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Sully’s Four Pack of Winners

Michigan State +25 @ Michigan: The Wolverines have beaten Spartans only once, since 2009, by more than 25 points, last year (2019), 44-10. Michigan beat a depleted Minnesota team in week one, 49-24, while MSU, despite 7 turnovers, battled Rutgers to a 38-27 loss! Seven TO’s is a 98 point swing, the 49 the Spartans could not get and the 49 that Scarlet Knights could get, as a result of forcing 7 turnovers. The Spartans will take better care of the ball and while they will not win straight up, they will, with the 25 points! Sully says: take MSU and the 25 points, the Wolves will win, but not cover!

Notre Dame -18 @ Georgia Tech: The Irish are 5-0 and are a week in front of the biggest regular season game (Clemson) they have played since their 1993, showdown win over Florida State! ND’s focus will be high knowing what is at stake the following week, The Irish will start fast and finish strong! Sully says: take ND and give the Ramblin Wreck the 18 points!

Purdue -4.5 @ Illinois: Purdue is coming off a major win over Iowa, 24-21, in Iowa City. Illinois was slobber-knocked by Wisconsin, 45-7, in Madison! The Boilers all American, WR Rondale Moore’s playing status, for Saturday, is unknown? Sully Says: whether Moore plays or not, it is not relevant, take the Boilermakers and give the Illini the 4.5 points!

Central Florida -3 @ Houston: UCF has beaten the Cougars 5 of the last 7 games that these teams have played and in each of these wins, the Knights have covered the 3 points! Sully says: give Houston the 3 points and take UCF!

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FBS Week Nine (9) Games

http://sullyscollegefootballpage.com/Football_Stats/Games_Listings.cfm

The above web address will take you to our game list page. Click in the drop box (Game Date) and a calendar will appear, this weeks games are being played on the following dates; 10 / 29, 30, & 31 (Thursday, Friday & Saturday)! Enter any of those above dates and the games being played on that date will appear!

Best Games by Conference:

AAC: Memphis 3-1 / 2-1 @ Cincinnati 4-0 / 2-0; TV: 11:00 / ESPN; Favorite: Cincy -6.5

ACC: Virginia Tech 3-2 / 3-2 @ Louisville 2-4 / 1-4; TV: 3:00 / ESPN; Favorite: VT -3

B-10: Ohio State 1-0 / 1-0 @ Penn State 0-1 / 0-1; TV: 6:30 / ABC; Favorite: OSU -10

B-12: Oklahoma State 4-0 / 3-0 @ Texas 3-2 / 2-2; TV: 3:00 / FOX; Favorite: OSU -3

C-USA: UAB 4-2 / 2-0 @ Louisiana Tech 3-3 / 2-2: TV: 2:30 / TBD; Favorite: UAB -9

MAC: Begin play next week!

MWC: Boise State 1-0 / 1-0 @ Air Force 1-1 / 0-1; TV: 5:00 / CBSSN; Favorite: BSU -9.5

P-12: Begin Play next week!

SEC: LSU 2-2 / 2-2 @ Auburn 3-2 / 3-2: TV: 2:30 / CBS; Favorite: Pick ’em Game

SBC: Coastal Carolina 5-0 / 3-0 @ Georgia State 2-2 / 1-2; TV: 11:00 / ESPNU; Favorite: Coastal Carolina -2

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