Sully's Big Blog! Commentary on College Football, Weekly Games, And Strange Statistics!

Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl

The Boca Raton Bowl is an annual NCAA sanctioned post-season FBS bowl game played in Boca Raton, Florida since December 2014 on Florida Atlantic’s campus in FAU Stadium.

Since 2017, the game has been sponsored by the New York-based beverage company Cheribundi and for sponsorship reasons was the Cheribundi Tart Cherry Boca Raton Bowl that year; it has been the Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl since 2018. The bowl’s previous sponsor was the sporting goods company Marmot (2015).

Teams:  SMU (AAC) 10-2 / Florida Atlantic (C-USA) 10-3 

Bowl Location: Boca Raton, FL

Day, Date & Time: Saturday, December, 21, 2019, 3:30 EST

Network: ABC

Best Win(s): FAU: beat UAB (9-4) 49-6, in C-USA Championship Game; SMU: beat TCU, 41-38 & Temple, 45-21

Worst Loss(es): SMU lost to 2 very good teams, Navy, 35-28 & Memphis 54-48 ; FAU lost to Ohio State, 45-21, UCF, 48-14, & 8-4 Marshall, 36-31!

Common Opponents: None

Vegas Hot$heets Favorite: SMU -3 (All lines are opening lines & all recommend picks are based on opening lines)

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is, say Notre Dame is playing Wisconsin … we take ND’s total yards on offense, add it to the number the Badgers give up on defense, we get a total and then divide the total by 2 to get an average. We then invert the process, we now take Wisconsin’s total offense, add it to what the Irish give up on defense, get a 2nd total, and then divide that number by 2, to get the second average! The greater number (with the exception of Turnovers, lower # wins) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed: 1) Total Yards, 2) Rushing, 3) Passing, 4) Scoring, 5) 3rd Down (Conversions /Stops), 6) Turnovers, 7) Red Zone Scores (TD’s & FG), & 8) Red Zone TD’s (only TD’s)!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Florida Atlantic | Owls SMU | Mustangs
Offense VS Defense 440 +1 435
Passing Off VS Def 279 +1 273.5
Rushing Off VS Def 160.5 161.5 +1
Scoring Off VS Def 33.5 +1 32.5
Turnovers Off VS Def 1.335 +1 1.7
3rd Conv Off VS Def 39.25 +1 37.8
Red Zone Scores 86.5 +1 76.5
Red Zone TDs 58.5 +1 58
Totals 7 1

Florida Atlantic WINS Trophy

Historic Football Matchups

The Game Simulator thinks FAU will dominate this game! SMU wins only 1 category, rushing O / D comparison, otherwise the Owls dominate! A major factor is that Lane Kiffin will not be calling plays and this will make a difference in this game. The AAC is the strongest conference in the G5, so their numbers (or lack of # in this comparison) were established against stronger competition.

Sully Says: Kiffin is the determinate here, take the Mustangs and give the Owls the 3 points!

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