Sully's Big Blog! Commentary on College Football, Weekly Games, And Strange Statistics!

Rose Bowl Game Presented by Nortwestern Mutual

Bowl History: The Rose Bowl Game is an annual American college football bowl game usually played on January 1 New Years Day at the Rose Bowl stadium in Pasadena, California. When New Year’s Day falls on a Sunday, the game is played on Monday, January 2 (15 times now). The Rose Bowl is nicknamed “The Granddaddy of Them All” because it is the oldest bowl game. It was first played in 1902, and has been played annually since 1916. Since 1945, it has been the highest attended college football bowl game.[3] It is a part of the Pasaden’s Tournament of RoseAssociation’s “America’s New Year Celebration,” which also includes the historic Rose Parade.

Beginning with the 2015 game, the official name for sponsorship reasons is the “Rose Bowl Game presented by Noprthwestern Mutual”. Viziowas the previous sponsor from 2012; prior sponsors included AT&T, Sony, and Citi. In 2015, the game was also officially known as the “College Football Playoff semifinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Northwestern Mutual.”

The Rose Bowl Game has traditionally hosted the conference champions from the Big Ten and PAC-12 conferences (or their predecessors), but due to its past and present membership in two consortiums that seek to determine a national championship in the FBS, in 2002, the Rose Bowl began to infrequently deviate from its traditional match-up in order to facilitate championship games. In 2002 and 2006 (2001 and 2005 football seasons), under the Bowl Championship Series system, the Rose Bowl was designated as its championship game, and hosted the top two teams determined by the BCS system. Beginning in 2015, the Rose Bowl has been part of the Coillege Football Playoff system and hosts one of its semi-final games every three years. During non-Playoff years, the Rose Bowl reverts to a Pac-12/Big Ten matchup.

Teams: Penn State 11-2 (B-10) USC 9-3 (P-12)

Bowl Location: Pasadena, California

Day, Date & Time: Monday, January 2, 2017, 4:00 p.m. CST

Network: ESPN

Best Win(s): Penn State beat Ohio State, USC beat Washington

Worst Losses: Penn State lost to Pitt, SC lost to Alabama, 52-6

Common Opponents: None

Vegas Hotsheets Favorite: SC -6.5

Offensive Team Data: USC ; Total Yards,  468 YPG; Passing Yards,  262 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  207 YPG; Scoring Average,  33 PPG, Turnovers,  1.58 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 47.2%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 76% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 65%

Offensive Team Data: PSU ; Total Yards,  430 YPG; Passing Yards, 261 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 169 YPG; Scoring Average  37 PPG, Turnovers,  1.31 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 32.1%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 85% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 52%

Defensive Team Data: USC ; Total Yards,  359 YPG; Passing Yards,  225 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  134 YPG; Scoring Average,  22 PPG, Turnovers,  1.42 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 35.2%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 84% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 64%

Defensive Team Data: PSU ; Total Yards,  352 YPG; Passing Yards,  198 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  154 YPG; Scoring Average,  23 PPG, Turnovers,  1.54 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 37.3%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 88% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 57%

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take Arizona’s total yards on offense, add it to what Nevada gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Nevada’s total offense, add it to what Arizona gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards Advantage: USC 410 to 394.5

Passing Yards Advantage: PSU 243 to 230

Rushing Yard Advantage: USC 180.5 to 151.5

Scoring Advantage: PSU 29.5 to 28

Turnovers Advantage: PSU 1.365 to 1.56

3rd Down Conversions Advantage: USC 42.25 to 33.65

Red Zone All Scores Advantage: PSU 84.5 to 82

Red Zone TD’s Only Advantage: USC 61 to 58

The Game Simulator Says:  Statistically USC 4, PSU 4, Site thinks PSU wins outright 30-28

Individuals to Watch: PSU QB Trace McSorley  & RB Saquan Barkley; USC QB Sam Darnold, WR JuJu Smith, & RB Ronald Jones

Sully Says: USC wins, but does not  cover

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