Sully's Big Blog! Commentary on College Football, Weekly Games, And Strange Statistics!

San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl

The Holiday Bowl is a post-season NCAA Division I Football Bowl Subdivision college football bowl game that has been played annually since 1978 at SDCCU Stadium in San Diego, California, United States. Since the 2014 edition, it has featured a match-up of PAC-12 and Big Ten teams!

Teams:  USC (P-12) 8-4 / Iowa (B-10) 9-3

Bowl Location: SDCCU Stadium, San Diego, CA 

Day, Date & Time: Friday, December, 27, 2019, 7:00 CST

Network: FOX Sports

Best Win(s): USC: beat Arizona State (7-5) 31-26, Iowa: beat Minnesota (10-2) 23-19!

Worst Loss(es): USC: lost to Oregon (11-2), 56-24; Iowa: lost to Wisconsin  (10-3), 24-22! 

Common Opponents: None

Vegas Hot$heets Favorite: Iowa -2.5 (Opening Line)

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is, say Notre Dame is playing Wisconsin … we take ND’s total yards on offense, add it to the number the Badgers give up on defense, we get a total and then divide the total by 2 to get an average. We then invert the process, we now take Wisconsin’s total offense, add it to what the Irish give up on defense, get a 2nd total, and then divide that number by 2, to get the second average! The greater number (with the exception of Turnovers, lower # wins) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed: 1) Total Yards, 2) Rushing, 3) Passing, 4) Scoring, 5) 3rd Down (Conversions /Stops), 6) Turnovers, 7) Red Zone Scores (TD’s & FG), & 8) Red Zone TD’s (only TD’s)!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

USC | Trojans Iowa | Hawkeyes
Offense VS Defense 383.5 392 +1
Passing Off VS Def 262 +1 237
Rushing Off VS Def 122 155 +1
Scoring Off VS Def 23 26 +1
Turnovers Off VS Def 1.585 1.29 +1
3rd Conv Off VS Def 40.25 +1 38.6
Red Zone Scores 81.5 89.5 +1
Red Zone TD’s 52 55.5 +1
Totals 2 6

Iowa WINS Trophy

Historic Football Matchups

These teams last met in the 2003 Orange Bowl, a 38-17 SC win. The Trojans lead the series 7 games to 2 games. USC has won 6 in a row & Iowa’s last win was in series was in 1961, @ the Coliseum, 35-34.

This game is one of the best in this 2019-20 Bowl Season. SC is the drama king of the 2019 season, QB injuries (3 different QB’s started for the Trojan’s (JT Daniels, Matt Fink, & Kedon Slovis). Then Kedon Slovis emerges as a star, passing for over 3,000 yards, 28 TD’s to 9 picks.

Every week SC’s Coach, Clay Helton was going to be fired, then he is not fired … but really not extended either … he is put in a limbo state for the 2020 season… a wait and see?  As a result, SC has put together its worst recruiting class for 2020 season … maybe ever!

This game will be a struggle between one team that wants it played in space (SC), while the other team wants this game settled in the meat house (Hawks)!

SC’s receivers, Michael Pittman, Amon Ra Saint Brown & Tyler Vaughns can and will overwhelm the Hawk secondary. Unless, the Iowa front (AJ Epenesa & Company) can hurry/sack Slovis, if not, it will be a long day for the Hawks!

That said, if the Iowa D can keep the Trojans from scoring outside the 20, the Air Raid (a 5 wide offensive set) can struggle when funneled into a smaller vertical field! Weird, but true!

Time of possession (Iowa’s run game and short passing game) is an important element for a Hawks win, as is limiting SC’s explosive plays!

This game should be fun!

Sully Says: Take the 2.5 & SC in this one!


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