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Which one Loss team has the best shot @ making CFP

Week Seven: Segment Five, One loss P5 Teams by Conference


Big Ten

  • Penn State 4-1: Lost to Ohio State, 27-26, Remaining games of significance: Michigan State 3-2 at Home, @ Michigan 5-1, & @ Home vs Wisconsin, 4-1. PSU cannot make the B-10 Championship unless OSU loses 2 B-10 games … not likely!
  • Michigan 5-1: Lost to ND, 24-17, Remaining games of significance: Wisconsin 4-1 in the Big House, @ Michigan State 3-2, Penn State 4-1 @ Home, & @ OSU 6-0. The Wolverines can play their way into the B-10 Championship Game and possibly the CFP!
  • Wisconsin 4-1: The Badgers lost to BYU, 24-21; Remaining games of significance: @ Michigan 5-1; @ Penn State 4-1, & possibly Ohio State 6-0, if these teams play their way into the B-10 Championship game. The Badgers can battle their way into the B-10 Championship and then win it Bucky has a chance have a shot at making the CFP …. depending on other P5 Conference results. The BYU loss could haunt them!
  • Iowa 4-1: The Hawks lost to Wisconsin, 28-17; Remaining games of significance: @ Penn State 4-1, Iowa would need the Badgers to lose 2 games to make the B-10 Championship and it is unlikely that they would be selected by the committee for the CFP!
  • Best chance for a one loss team in the B-10 to make the CFP is Michigan


  • LSU 5-1: Loss to Florida 27-19, Remaining games of significance: Georgia 6-0, Alabama 6-0, Texas A&M 4-2 @ College Station, & SEC Championship if they win out!
  • Kentucky 5-1: Lost @ Texas A&M in OT, 20-14, Remaining games of significance: Georgia 6-0 & SEC Championship if they win out!
  • Florida 5-1: Loss to Kentucky, 26-17, Remaining games of significance: Georgia 6-0 (Jacksonville), & @ Florida State 3-3. Florida needs to win out and can only make the SEC Championship Game if Kentucky losses another Conference Game!
  • Best chance for a one loss team in the SEC to make the CFP is LSU


PAC 12

  • Washington 5-1: Lost to Auburn, 21-16, on opening weekend; Remaining games of significance, At Oregon 4-1, Colorado 5-0 @ Home, Stanford 4-2 @ Home, & @ Washington State 5-1. Washington’s loss was in a non-conference game and so if they win out they are the North Division Champion, in the P-12 Championship, and possibly in the CFP.
  • Oregon 4-1: The Ducks lost in a bizarre manner to Stanford, 38-30 in OT;  Remaining games of significance: @ Home vs Washington 5-1 and @ Washington State 5-1. The Ducks will be in the P-12 championship if they win out and if Stanford loses a 2nd game (one of their 2 losses was out of conference). Their Non-Conference schedule will hurt their CFP selection opportunity (Bowling Green, Portland State, & San Jose State)
  • Washington State 5-1: Lost to USC, 39-36, Remaining games of significance: Oregon 4-1 @ Home, @ Stanford 4-2, @ Colorado 5-0, & @ Washington 5-1. Remember one of Stanford’s losses is out of conference to ND, 38-17 and Colorado is in the South Division of the P-12. So if WSU beats Oregon, Stanford, & Washington they will own the tie-breaker in the North Division. The Cougars challenge to getting into the CFP is a lot like Oregon’s, their NC Schedule (Wyoming, San Jose, Eastern Washington) is a huge problem!
  • Best chance for a one loss team in the P-12 to make the CFP is Washington

Big 12

  • Oklahoma 5-1: Lost to Texas, 48-45; Remaining games of significance: @ TCU 3-2, @ Texas Tech 3-2, & @ West Virginia 5-0. It should be noted that TCU lost to Ohio State, 40-28 & T-Tech lost to Ole Miss, 47-27 NC games and as a result, both of these teams have only one conference loss. If Oklahoma wins out they will be in the B-12 Championship game!
  • Texas 5-1: Their lone loss is to Maryland, 34-29, in College Park. Remaining games of significance: West Virginia 5-0 @ Home & at T-Tech 3-2. If the Horns win out they will play their way into the B-12 Championship Game and possible rematch with the Sooners. So the question who gains the most ground in the rematch the Longhorns or OU?
  • Best chance for a one loss team in the B-12 to make the CFP is Oklahoma


  • Miami 5-1: Their lone loss is to LSU, 33-17; Remaining games of significance: Duke 4-1 @ Home, @ Virginia Tech 3-2 (VT has not lost in the ACC), & a possible showdown with Clemson 6-0 in the ACC Championship Game. If the Canes win out, an LSU championship in the SEC would go a long way to support Miami’s entry into the CFP!
  • Duke 4-1: Lost to Virginia Tech, 31-14; Remaining games of significance: @ Miami 5-1 & @ Clemson 6-0. Even if Duke wins out, they will need Virginia Tech to lose 2 games as the Hokies have the tie-breaker with Blue Devils having won the head to head game!
  • Best chance for a one loss team in the ACC to make the CFP is Miami

So what one loss team has the best overall chance to make the CFP? There is no question, it is the SEC’s LSU! If the Tigers win out, they will have beaten Georgia (probably twice) and Bama once and given the FACT that the SEC Champ is going into the Playoff’s; to that end, there is no question, that in this scenario, LSU, the SEC Champ is in! So answer this; what other one loss team, conference champ or not, would get in… in front of a one loss Alabama?

It would have to be an undefeated P5 champion (B-10’s Ohio State, ACC’s Clemson) or an undefeated ND to get to the CFP in front of a one loss Alabama, and even then, the debate would be raging! So for the current (heading into week seven) one loss teams, the one with the best shot @ the College Football Playoff’s… Is clearly LSU! 

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