Sully's Big Blog! Commentary on College Football, Weekly Games, And Strange Statistics!

Gildan New Mexico Bowl

Bowl History:  The Bowl was established in 2006, the conference tie-ins are: the PAC 12 & Mountain West. The first game was played December 23, 2006, San Jose State beat New Mexico, 20-12 and last year’s game was won by Arizona 45-37 over New Mexico. Prior to 2011, the Bowl was simply known as the the New Mexico Bowl. In 2011, Gildan (Clothing Manufacturer) became the official sponsor and thus the official name of the bowl: Gildan New Mexico Bowl! The game is one of the earliest played bowls, always scheduled before Christmas. The Payout for each team is $750,000.00!

Teams: UTSA 6-6 (C-USA) vs New Mexico 8-4 (MWC)

Bowl Location: Albuquerque, New Mexico. The Bowl is played @ University Stadium on the campus of the University of New Mexico. Stadium Capacity 39,224; Highest Attendance 2006: 34,111; Lowest Attendance 2008: 24,735. 2015 Attendance 30,289, a 5% decrease from 2014!

Day, Date & Time: Saturday, 12/17/2016, 1:00 p.m. CST

Network: ESPN

Best Win(s): New Mexico: beat Wyoming 56-35 & Air Force 45-40; UTSA: beat Middle Tennessee, 45-25 & Southern Miss, 55-32

Worst Losses: New Mexico Lost to Rutgers 37-28; UTSA: Lost to La Tech, 63-35

Common Opponents: Colorado State: UTSA Lost 23-14 while New Mexico fell 49-31

Las Vegas Hotsheets Favorite: New Mexico -7.0

Offensive Team Data: New Mexico; Total Yards: 472 YPG; Passing Yards, 109 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 362 YPG; Scoring Average: 38 PPG, Turnovers, 1.17 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 45.9%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 89% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 73%

Offensive Team Data: Texas San Antonio; Total Yards, 376 YPG; Passing Yards, 222 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 155 YPG; Scoring Average, 30 PPG, Turnovers, 1.17 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 42.5%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 87% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 70%

Defensive Team Data: New Mexico; Total Yards, 397 YPG; Passing Yards,  231 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 166 YPG; Scoring Average, 32 PPG, Turnovers, 1.0 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 38.9%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 88% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 73%

Defensive Team Data: Texas State; Total Yards, 400 YPG; Passing Yards,  242 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 158 YPG; Scoring Average  28 PPG, Turnovers, 2.5 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 39.1%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 78% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 56%

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams/conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take New Mexico’s total yards on offense, add it to what UTSA gives up on defense, get a total and then divide that number by 2 to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking UTSA’s’s total offense, add it to what New Mexico gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2 to get the second mean. The greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. The statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards:  Advantage, New Mexico 436 to 386

Passing Yards: Advantage, UTSA 226.5 to 175.5

Rushing Yards: Advantage, New Mexico 260 to 160.5

Scoring: Advantage, New Mexico. 33 to 31

Turnovers: Advantage, UTSA 1.085 to 1.835

3rd Down Conversions: Advantage, New Mexico 42.5% to 40.7% 

Red Zone All Scores: Advantage, UTSA 87.5% to 83.5%

Red Zone TD’s Only: Advantage UTSA 71.5 to 64.5

Game Simulator Result: A 4 to 4 statistical tie in the 8 categories assessed

Individuals to Watch:

New Mexico: QB Lamar Jordan has rushed for 658 yards, 59.8 YPG & 3 TD’s, While RB’s Teriyon Gipson has rushed for 1209 yards, 120.9 YPG & 12 TD’s & Tyrone Owens 1084 yards, 98.5 YPG & 7 TD’s

UTSA: QB Dalton Sturmpassed for 2052 yards, 18 TD & 5 INT, RB Jerveon Williams 775 yards, 64.6 YPG & 8 TD’s & WR Josh Stewart 36 receptions, 682 Yards, 56.8 YPG & 5 TD’s

Sully Says: New Mexico is the pick here, no question about it! The Lobos have better numbers on both sides of the ball in the run game and compete in a better league. Mountain West is better than the C-USA and then some! Take New Mexico and give the 7 to UTSA!

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