Sully's Big Blog! Commentary on College Football, Weekly Games, And Strange Statistics!

Outback Bowl

Bowl History: The bowl was established in 1986 as the Hall of Fame Bowl (1986-94) renamed in 1995 through 2013 to the Outback Bowl. The first game was played on December 23,1986, Boston College beat Georgia, 27-24. Last year’s game featured Tennessee & Northwestern, a game won by the Volunteers, 45-6! The Bowl conference tie-ins are the SEC & the Big Ten.  The Outback Bowl is played on New Year’s Day, unless January 1 falls on a Sunday, in which case it is moved to the following Monday. It is usually the first game to start on a date which is traditionally full of college bowl games, and has kicked off as early as 11 A.M. ESPN has had television rights to the game since 1993. Under an extension of those rights in 2010, ESPN now broadcasts the game on either ABC, ESPN, or ESPN2, in conjunction with the Citrus Bowl and the Gator Bowl. The contract ran through 2014 season. Between 1988 and 1992, the bowl aired on NBC! The bowl payout is $7,200,000.00

Teams: Iowa 8-4 (B-10) vs Florida 7-5 (SEC)

Bowl Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tempa Florida

Day, Date & Time: Monday, January 2,2017, 12:00 p.m CST

Network: ESPN

Best Win(s): Iowa beat Nebraska, 40-10 (9-4 B-10); Florida beat LSU 16-10 (8-4 SEC)

Worst Losses: Iowa lost to North Dakota State 23-21, an FCS Team out of the Missouri Valley Football Conference; Florida lost to Arkansas, 31-10 (7-6 SEC)

Common Opponents: None!

Vegas Hotsheets Favorite: Florida -2

Offensive Team Data: Florida ; Total Yards,  350 YPG; Passing Yards,  220 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  130 YPG; Scoring Average,  23 PPG, Turnovers,  1.75 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 41.8%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 71% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 50%

Offensive Team Data: Iowa ; Total Yards,  333 YPG; Passing Yards, 161 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 172 YPG; Scoring Average  27 PPG, Turnovers,  0.75 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 3.33%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 92% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 71%

Defensive Team Data: Florida ; Total Yards,  298 YPG; Passing Yards,  156 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  142 YPG; Scoring Average,  17 PPG, Turnovers,  1.75 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 35.3%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 69% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 45%

Defensive Team Data: Iowa ; Total Yards,   353 YPG; Passing Yards,   200 YPG;  Rushing Yards,   153 YPG; Scoring Average,   18 PPG, Turnovers,   1.25 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 34.8%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 72% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 50%

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take Arizona’s total yards on offense, add it to what Nevada gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Nevada’s total offense, add it to what Arizona gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards Advantage: Florida 351.5 to 315.5

Passing Yards Advantage: Florida 210 to 158.5

Rushing Yard Advantage: Iowa 157 to 141.05

Scoring Advantage: Iowa 22 tp 20.5

Turnovers Advantage: Iowa 1.25 to 1.5

3rd Down Conversions Advantage: Florida 38.3 to 34.3

Red Zone All Scores Advantage: Iowa 80.5 to 71.5

Red Zone TD’s Only Advantage: Iowa 58 to 50

The Game Simulator Says: Iowa 5, Florida 3, Site thinks it Iowa outright, 22-21, take Iowa and the 2 points!

Individuals to Watch: The QB’s for both teams our your focus, neither of the three has been very good this year! Who will have the better day? Iowa’s CJ Beathard or Florida’s Auston Appleby (A Purdue transfer) or Luke Del Rio (coming back after a shoulder injury)

Sully Says: Florida wins and covers the 2 points

Posted in #1 Uncategorized |

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic

Bowl History: The Cotton Bowl was first played in 1937 and has been played annually since its inaugural year! The Bowl was once one of the four major bowls (Sugar, Orange & Rose) during the BCS Era it devolved into second tier bowl which selects its teams after the then BCS Bowls (Fiesta, Orange, Sugar, Rose & the BSC National Championship) teams have been placed!  It regained its former prominance when the CFP was established as one ot the New Years Day Six (Rose, Sugar, Orange, Fiesta & Peach). Two of these six bowls, house the CFP Semi Finals every 3rd year! Between 1937 and 2009, the game was played at its namesake stadium in Dallas; in 2010, it moved to Cowboy Stadiumin nearby Arlington. Historically, the game hosted the champion of the Southwest Conference (SWC) against a team invited from elsewhere in the country, frequently a major independent or a runner-up from the Southeastern Conference (SEC). Following the dissolution of the SWC in 1996, the game hosted a runner-up from theBig Twelve Conference (B-12), from 1999 to 2014 against a team from SEC. The Cotton Bowl Classic now served as one of six bowls in the College Football Playoff (CFP) since the 2014 season; it hosted the national semifinal following the 2015 season and will do so again following the 2018 season. In 2016, it will host #8 Wisconsin (10-3) and #15 Western Michigan University (13-0). The Cotton Bowl payout is $7,250,000.00

Teams: Wisconsin 10-3 (B-10) vs Western Michigan 13-0 (MAC)

Bowl Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas

Day, Date & Time: Monday, January 2, 2017, 12:00 p.m. CST

Network: ESPN

Best Win(s): Wisconsin beat LSU, 16-14, (8-4 SEC). Iowa, 17-9 (8-4 B-10) & Nebraska, 23-17 OT (9-4 B-10); Western Michigan beat Northwestern 7-6 (B-10)

Worst Losses:  Western Michigan did not lose a game in 2016 regular season, UW’s loss to Penn State, 38-31, in B-10 Championship

Common Opponents: Northwestern: Badgers won 21-7, while the Broncos won 22-21

Vegas Hotsheets Favorite: Wisconsin -6.5

Offensive Team Data: Wisconsin ; Total Yards, 384  YPG; Passing Yards, 179 YPG ;  Rushing Yards, 205 YPG; Scoring Average,  29 PPG, Turnovers,  1.23 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 43%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 84% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 64%

Offensive Team Data: Western Michigan ; Total Yards,  497 YPG; Passing Yards, 260 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 237 YPG; Scoring Average  44 PPG, Turnovers,  0.54 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 54.2%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 94% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 77%

Defensive Team Data:Wisconsin ; Total Yards,  303 YPG; Passing Yards,  206 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  97 YPG; Scoring Average,  15 PPG, Turnovers,  2.08 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 26.8%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 75% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 41%

Defensive Team Data: Western Michigan ; Total Yards,  353 YPG; Passing Yards,  202 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  151 YPG; Scoring Average, 19 PPG, Turnovers,  2 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 38%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 88% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 63%

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take Arizona’s total yards on offense, add it to what Nevada gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Nevada’s total offense, add it to what Arizona gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards Advantage: Western Michigan 400 to 368.5

Passing Yards Advantage: Western Michigan 233 to 190.5

Rushing Yard Advantage: Wisconsin 178 to 167

Scoring Advantage: Western Michigan 29.5 to 24

Turnovers Advantage: Western Michigan 1.31 to 1.615

3rd Down Conversions Advantage:  Push  @ 40.5,

Red Zone All Scores Advantage: Push @ 86%

Red Zone TD’s Only Advantage: Wisconsin 63.5 to 59

The Game Simulator Says: Western Michigan 4, Wisconsin 2, Push 2; Site thinks Western Michigan wins outright, 30-24

Individuals to Watch: WM QB Zack Terrell 32/3 TD to INT Ratio, 3376 Passing Yards, WR Corey Davis, 91 receptions, 1427 total yards, 15.7 YPC, & 10TD’s  UW: RB Corey Clement, 4.5 YPA, 1304 yards rushing for 2016 season, & 14 TD’s

Sully Says: Not so fast my friend Badgers win but do not cover, Take WM and the points!

Posted in #1 Uncategorized |

Conference Records through the 29th of December

Here are how the Conferences records in the second season, through December, 29, 2016! Order based on winning percentage! The ACC and the Sun Belt are leading the way in the Bowl Season thus far. The “Big Guns” are playing in the next 48 hours, should be interesting to see how this shakes out!

  1. Independents: 2-0
  2. Atlantic Coastal Conference: 5-1
  3. Sun Belt Conference: 4-1
  4. Big-12: 3-1
  5. Conference USA: 4-3
  6. Mountain West Conference: 3-3
  7. Big Ten: 2-2
  8. Pacific Athletic Conference 12: 1-2
  9. American Athletic Conference: 2-5
  10. Southeastern Conference: 1-4
  11. Mid-American Conference: o-4

Today’s Games 12/30/16:

  • Georgia 7-5 (SEC) vs TCU 6-6 (B-12)
  • Stanford 9-3 (P-12) vs UNC 8-4 (ACC)
  • Nebraska 9-3 (B-12) vs Tennessee 8-4 (SEC)
  • South Alabama 6-6 (SBC) vs Air Force 9-3 (MWC)
  • Michigan 10-2 (B-10) vs FSU 9-3 (ACC)

How we got here! Order here is Alphabetical

American Athletic Conference (AAC) 2-5: Houston lost to San Diego State (MWC) 34-10; Central Florida lost to Arkansas State (SBC), 31-13; Tulsa blasted Central Michigan (MAC), 55-10; Memphis was kicked around by Western Kentucky, (C-USA), 51-31; Navy fell to Louisisana Tech (C-USA) 48-45; Temple lost to Wake Forest (ACC), 34-26! South Florida beat South Carolina (SEC), 46-39

Atlantic Coastal Conference (ACC) 5-1: Boston College beat Maryland (B-10), 36-30; NC State popped Vanderbelt (SEC), 41-17; Wake Forest beat Temple (AAC), 34-26; Pitt lost to Northwestern (B-10) 31-24; Miami beat West Virginia, 31-14, Virginia Tech beat Arkansas (SEC), 35-24

Big-12 (B-12) 3-1: Baylor slapped Boise State (MWC) around the field, 31-12; West Virginia lost to Miami, 31-14; Kansas State beat Texas A&M, 33-28; Oklahoma State hammered Colorado (P-12), 38-8

Big Ten (B-10) 2-2: Maryland lost to Boston College (ACC), 36-30; Minnesota beat Washington State (P-12), 17-12; Northwestern beat Pitt (ACC), 31-24; Indiana lost to Utah, 26-24

Conference USA (C-USA) 4-3: University of Texas San Antonio (UTSA) lost to New Mexico (MWC), 23-20; Southern Miss beat Louisiana Lafayette (SBC), 28-21; Western Kentucky busted up Memphis (AAC), 51-31; Old Dominion stopped Eastern Michigan, (MAC); 24-20; Louisiana Tech out-lasted Navy (AAC), 48-45; Middle Tennessee lost to Hawaii (MWC), 52-35; North Texas lost to Army (IND), 38-31

Independents (IND) 2-0: BYU held off Wyoming (MWC), 24-21; Army beat North Texas (C-USA), 38-31;

Mid-American Conference (MAC) 0-4: Toledo lost to Appalachian State, 31-28, Central Michigan was destroyed by Tulsa (AAC), 55-10; Eastern Michigan lost to Old Dominion (C-USA), 24-20; Miami OH fell short to Mississippi State (SEC), 17-16

Mountain West Conference (MWC) 3-3: New Mexico beat UTSA (C-USA), 23-20, San Diego State hammered Houston (AAC), 34-10, Wyoming fell to BYU (IND), 24-21; Colorado State lost to Idaho (SBC), 61-50; Hawaii held off Middle Tennessee (C-USA), 52-35; Boise State lost to Baylor (B-12), 31-12

Pacific Athletic Conference 12 (PAC-12) 1-2: Washington State lost to Minnesota (B-10), 17-12; Utah beat Indiana, 26-24; Colorado lost to Oklahoma State (B-12), 38-8

Sun Belt Conference (SBC) 4-1: Appalachian State survived Toledo (MAC), 31-28; Arkansas State whipped Central Florida (AAC), 31-13, Louisiana Lafayette lost to Southern Southern Miss (C-USA), 28-21; Idaho outscored Colorado State (MWC), 61-50; Troy beat Ohio (MAC), 28-23

Southeastern Conference (SEC) 1-4: Vanderbilt was thumped by NC State (ACC), 41-17; Mississippi State escaped Miami OH (MAC), 17-16; Texas A&M lost to Kansas State, 33-28; South Carolina lost to South Florida (SBC), 46-39; Arkansas lost to Virginia Tech (ACC), 35-24

Posted in #1 Uncategorized |

December 30, 2016

Today’s Games Friday December 30, 2016

 

  • For more detailed info see the Bowl write up on the Blog 
  • 5 Games today!
  • GS (Game Simulator) currently 18-6-1, 72% vs the Spread
  • Sully is 11-14-2, 41% vs the Spread, I may start calling the Simulator the Terminator, given the tail whippin’ I’m getting!

Autozone Liberty Bowl

Result: TBD, Georgia 7-5 vs TCU 6-6

Opening Line: TCU -1.5

GS Says: TCU wins 28-26, and covers the 1.5

Sully Says: Take Georgia and the points

Hyundai Sun Bowl

Result: TBD, Stanford 9-3 vs North Carolina 8-4

Opening Line: UNC -1

GS Says: Stanford wins & covers this game, 31-23

Sully Says: Stanford wins and covers

Nova Homes Loans Arizona Bowl

Result: TBD, South Alabama 6-6 vs Air Force 9-3

Opening Line: Air Force -15

GS Says: AF wins 30-27, but does not cover, Take USA and the points

Sully Says: Air Force wins but does not cover the 15!

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl

Result: TBD, Nebraska 9-3 Tennessee 8-4

Opening Line: Tennessee -3

GS Says: Tennessee wins 30-28, does not cover the 3 points, its Nebraska

Sully Says: Tennessee wins and covers

Capital One Orange Bowl

Result: TBD, Michigan 10-2 Florida State 9-3

Opening Line: Michigan -6.5

GS Says: UM wins 33-24 and covers the 6.5

Sully Says: Michigan wins and covers

For more details, please go to the Bowl Game Review on the Blog!

Enjoy the Games!

Posted in #1 Uncategorized |

Sully vs Game Simulator vs the Spread 12/29/16

The Game Simulator went 2-0 & a Draw vs the spread on the 29th, while Sully went 1-2 vs “the Wise Guys”! Current Standings: The Machine is 18-6-1 with 2 game being called draws, while Sully is 11-14-2

Here is what happened yesterday!

December 29, 2016

 

Birmingham Bowl

Result: South Florida 46 South Carolina 39

Opening Line: South Florida -11

Game Simulator (GS) Says: USF wins but does not cover the 11 Winner; 17-6-1

Sully Says: Take South Carolina and the 11 points Winner; 11-12-2

Belk Bowl

Result: Virginia Tech 35-24

Opening Line: Va Tech -6

Game Simulator (GS) Says: V-Tech wins outright, 33-27, the 6 points it is giving Arkansas result in a a 33-33 tie, Draw 17-6-1

Sully Says: Take Arkansas and the 6 points, Loser 11-13-2

ValeroAloma Bowl

Result: Oklahoma State 38 Colorado 8

Opening Line: Colorado -2

Game Simulator (GS) Says: Take OSU and the 2 points, Wimmer 18-6-1

Sully Says: Take Colorado and give Oklahoma State the 2, Loser,11-14-2

Posted in #1 Uncategorized |

Sully vs Game Simulator vs Point Spread

I am getting hammered by my own creation, the Game Simulator is predicting game outcomes, factoring in the spread, with 70% accuracy; while Sully is stumbling along at 42%. This gives new meaning to the ” Rise of the Machine(s)”!! The worst part about this, is in looking back at results & rethinking (if U can call it thinking) …. I would, given the available info, likely do the same thing. In other wards, I had no Ah-ha moment! The picks were based on solid data that is on SCFP and some of these outcomes are puzzling, to say the least! Please review and let me know your thoughts!

December 17, 2016

Gildan New Mexico Bowl

Result: New Mexico 23 UTSA 20

Opening Line: New Mexico -7

Game Simulator (GS) Says: NM wins but does not cover; Winner; 1-0

Sully Says: NM wins and covers, Lobos won but did not cover, Loser; 0-1

Las Vegas Bowl Presented by Geico

Result: San Diego State 34 Houston 10

Opening Line: Houston -5

GS Says: Houston 30 San Diego State 29, Take SDSU and the 5 points, Winner; 2-0

Sully Says: Take Houston and give the 5 points to SDSU, Loser; 0-2

Raycom Media Comellia Bowl

Result: Appalachian State 31 Toledo 28

Opening Line: Appalachian State -1

GS Says: Toledo wins 28-27, take Toledo and the point; Loser; 2-1

Sully Says: Take Toledo and the point; Loser; 0-3

AutoNation Cure Bowl

Result: Arkansas State 31 (UCF) Central Florida 13

Opening Line: UCF -6.5

GS Says: UCF wins 26 to 25.5, take the points and Arkansas State, Winner; 3-1

Sully Says: Take UCF and give the 6.5, Loser; 0-4

R & L Carriers New Orleans Bowl

Result: Southern Miss 28 Louisiana Lafeyette 21

Opening Line: Southern Miss -6.5

GS Says: S. Miss wins but does not cover, Take Louisiana and the points, Loser; 3-2

Sully Says: Take Southern Miss and give the 6.5, Winner; 1-4

December 19, 2016

Miami Beash Bowl

Result: Tulas 55 Central Michigan 10

Opening Line: Tulsa 12.5

GS Says: Tulsa wins 35-30, Take CM and the points; Loser; 3-3

Sully Says: Take Tulsa, Give CM the 12.5 points, Winner; 2-4

December 20, 2016

Boca Raton Bowl

Result: Western Kentucky 51 Memphis 31

Opening Line: Western Kentucky -5

GS Says: WK beats Memphis 36-32, Take Memphis & the 5 points, Loser; 3-4

Sully Says: Take Memphis and the 5 Points, Loser; 2-5

December 21, 2016

San Diego County Credit Union, Poinsettia Bowl

Result: BYU 24 Wyoming 21

Opening Line: BYU -10

GS Says: BYU wins 33-28, Take Wyoming and the points, Winner, 4-4

Sullys Says: Take Wyoming and the 10, Winner; 3-5

December 22, 2016

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

Result: Idaho 61 Colorado State 50

Opening Line: Colorado State -13.5

GS Says: Colorado State wins 32-28, Take Idaho and the 13.5, Winner; 5-4 

SullySays: Take Colrado State and give Idaho  the 13.5, Loser; 3-6

December 23, 2016

Popeyes Bahamas Bowl

Result: Ols Dominion 24 Eastern Michigan 20

Opening Line: Ols Dominion -4

GS Says: Old Dominion wins 32-29; Take EM and the 4 points, Winner 6-4

Sully Says: Take OD and give EM the 4 points, Push; 3-6-1

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl

Result: Louisiana Teach 48 Navy 45

Opening Line: Navy -5

GS Says: LT wins 37-35, Take La Tech and give the Navy the 5 points Winner; 7-4

Sully Says: Take La Tech and give Navy the 5 points, Winner; 4-6-1

General Dollar Bowl

Result: Troy 28-Ohio 23

Opening Line: Troy -5

GS Says: Troy wins 28-25, Take Ohio and the 5 points, Push 7-4-1

Sully Says: Take Troy and give Ohio the 5 points, Push 4-6-2

December 24, 2016

Hawaii Bowl

Result: Hawaii 52 Middle Tennessee 35

Opening Line: Middle Tennessee -4.5

GS Says: MT wins 39-30, Take MT and give Hawaii the 4.5 points, Loser; 7-5-1

Sully Says: take MT and give Hawaii the 4.5 points, Loser, 4-7-2

December 26,2016

St. Petersburg Bowl

Result: Mississppi Syaye 17 Miami OH 16

Opening Line: Mississippi State 11.5

GS Says: Take Miami and the 11 Points! Winner, 8-5-1

Sully Says, Take Mississippi and give the 11 points! Loser, 4-8-2

Quick Lane Bowl

Result: BC 36 Maryland 30

Opening Line: BC -1

GS Says: Take Maryland and the point! Winner, 9-5-1

Sully Says: Take Maryland and the point! Winner, 5-8-2

Camping World Independance Bowl

Result: NC State 41 Vanberbilt 17

Opening Line: NC State -3.5

GS Says: Take Vandy and the points, Loser 9-6-1

Sully Says: NC State wins and covers! Winner, 6-8-2

December 27, 2016

Zaxby’s Heart of Dallas Bowl

Result: Army 38 North Texas 31 OT

Opening Line: Army -9

GS Says: Predicted an Army victory, 31-22, plus the 9; Draw, 9-6-1

Sully Says: Take North Texas and the points, Winner 7-8-2

Military Bowl Presented Northrop Grumman

Result: Wake Forest 34 Temple 26

Opening Line: Temple -13

GS Says: Take Wake and the points, Winner, 10-6-1

Sully Says: Take WF and the points! Winner 8-8-2

National Funding Holiday Bowl

Result: Minnesota 17 Washington State 12

Opening Line: Wasnington State -5.5

GS Says: Take Minnesota and the points, Winner 11-6-1

Sully Says: Taks the Gophers and the 10, Winner 9-8-2

Motel 6 Cactus Bowl

Result: Baylor 31 Boise State 12

Opening Line: Boise State -10

GS Says: Take Baylor & the 10 points, Winner, 12-6-1

Sully Says: Take Boise State and give the 10 points, Loser, 9-9-2

December 28, 2016

New Era Pinstripe Bowl

Result: Northwestern 31 Pitt 24

Opening Line: Pitt -3.5

GS Says: Take the points & Northwestern, Winner, 13-6-1

Sully Says: Pitt wins & covers, Loser, 9-10-2

Russell Athletic Bowl

Result: Miami Fl 31 West Virginia 14

Opening Line: Miami -1

GS Says: Take the point and Miami, Winner 14-6-1

Sully Says: Take West Virginia and the point, Loser 9-11-2

Foster Farms Bowl

Result: Utah 26 Indiana 24

Opening Line: Utah -6.5

GS Says: Talke the Hoosiers amd the points, Winner 15-6-1

Sully Says: Its Indiana and the points, Winner 10-11-2

AdvoCare V100 Texas Bowl

Results: Kansas State 33 Texas A& M 28

Opening Line: Texas A&M -2.5

GS Says: A&M wins 28.5 to 28, take Kansas State and the points, Winner 16-6-1

Sully Says: It’s A&M and give K-State the 2.5 points! Loser 10-12-2

Game Simulator is picking winners vs the spread, 70% (16/23) of the time, while Sully is limping around the field with a 42% (10/24) winning percentage!

I knew I should not have given up Jameson for Lent last year, clearly it threw me off! I am going to Jamie on the Rocks on Christmas Day, and then, I know, I’ll do better when the bowls start back up on the 26th! Stay Tuned!!

Sadly, the Jameson has been of no help. I will redouble my efforts in that realm!

Please note:The GS predicted a tie in the Army game at 31 and that is exactly what happened, a 31-31 tie at the end of regulation! As a result, the GS’s numbers are one off of Sullys 23 to 24 games. Finally, please review actual bowl games if you have doubts about what I am saying regarding GS’s numbers! To the best of my knowledge they are accurate!

 

Enjoy the games!

Sully ♥

 

Posted in #1 Uncategorized |

Conference Record in the Second Season 12/28/16

Here are how the Conferences records in the second season, through December, 28, 2016! Order based on winning percentage!

  1. Independents: 2-0
  2. Atlantic Coastal Conference: 4-1
  3. Sun Belt Conference: 4-1
  4. Big-12: 2-1
  5. Conference USA: 4-3
  6. Mountain West Conference: 3-3
  7. Big Ten: 2-2
  8. Pacific Athletic Conference 12: 1-1
  9. Southeastern Conference: 1-2
  10. American Athletic Conference: 1-5
  11. Mid-American Conference: o-4

Today’s Games 12/29/16:

  • South Florida 10-2 (AAC) vs South Carolina 6-6 (SEC)
  • Arkansas 7-5 (SEC) vs Virginia Tech 9-4 (ACC)
  • Oklahoma State 9-3 (B-12) vs Colorado 10-3

How we got here!

American Athletic Conference (AAC) 1-5: Houston lost to San Diego State (MWC) 34-10; Central Florida lost to Arkansas State (SBC), 31-13; Tulsa blasted Central Michigan (MAC), 55-10; Memphis was kicked around by Western Kentucky, (C-USA), 51-31; Navy fell to Louisisana Tech (C-USA) 48-45; Temple lost to Wake Forest (ACC), 34-26!

Atlantic Coastal Conference (ACC) 4-1: Boston College beat Maryland (B-10), 36-30; NC State popped Vanderbelt (SEC), 41-17; Wake Forest beat Temple (AAC), 34-26; Pitt lost to Northwestern (B-10) 31-24; Miami beat West Virginia, 31-14

Big-12 (B-12) 2-1: Baylor slapped Boise State (MWC) around the field, 31-12; West Virginia lost to Miami, 31-14; Kansas State beat Texas A&M, 33-28;

Big Ten (B-10) 2-2: Maryland lost to Boston College (ACC), 36-30; Minnesota beat Washington State (P-12), 17-12; Northwestern beat Pitt (ACC), 31-24; Indiana lost to Utah, 26-24

Conference USA (C-USA) 4-3: University of Texas San Antonio (UTSA) lost to New Mexico (MWC), 23-20; Southern Miss beat Louisiana Lafayette (SBC), 28-21; Western Kentucky busted up Memphis (AAC), 51-31; Old Dominion stopped Eastern Michigan, (MAC); 24-20; Louisiana Tech out-lasted Navy (AAC), 48-45; Middle Tennessee lost to Hawaii (MWC), 52-35; North Texas lost to Army (IND), 38-31

Independents (IND) 2-0: BYU held off Wyoming (MWC), 24-21; Army beat North Texas (C-USA), 38-31;

Mid-American Conference (MAC) 0-4: Toledo lost to Appalachian State, 31-28, Central Michigan was destroyed by Tulsa (AAC), 55-10; Eastern Michigan lost to Old Dominion (C-USA), 24-20; Miami OH fell short to Mississippi State (SEC), 17-16

Mountain West Conference (MWC) 3-3: New Mexico beat UTSA (C-USA), 23-20, San Diego State hammered Houston (AAC), 34-10, Wyoming fell to BYU (IND), 24-21; Colorado State lost to Idaho (SBC), 61-50; Hawaii held off Middle Tennessee (C-USA), 52-35; Boise State lost to Baylor (B-12), 31-12

Pacific Athletic Conference 12 (PAC-12) 1-1: Washington State lost to Minnesota (B-10), 17-12; Utah beat Indiana, 26-24

Sun Belt Conference (SBC) 4-1: Appalachian State survived Toledo (MAC), 31-28; Arkansas State whipped Central Florida (AAC), 31-13, Louisiana Lafayette lost to Southern Southern Miss (C-USA), 28-21; Idaho outscored Colorado State (MWC), 61-50; Troy beat Ohio (MAC), 28-23

Southeastern Conference (SEC) 1-2: Vanderbilt was thumped by NC State (ACC), 41-17; Mississippi State escaped Miami OH (MAC), 17-16; Texas A&M lost to Kansas State, 33-28

Posted in #1 Uncategorized |

Capital One Orange Bowl

Bowl History: This Bowl was first played in 1935 and has been held annually since the bowl’s inaugural game!  The initial game was played on January 1, 1935, when Bucknell beat Miami of Florida, 26-0! The Orange Bowl celebrated its 75th anniversary in the 2009 rendition of the game, Virginia Tech beat Cincinnati, 20-7 and last year’s game had Clemson pounding Oklahoma 37- to 17! The Conference tie-ins are the ACC and Orange Bowl Committee Selection Team! The payout is $17,000,000.00 per team!

Teams: Michigan 10-2 (B-10) Florida State 9-3 (ACC)

Bowl Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida

Day, Date & Time: Friday, December 30, 2016, 7:00 p.m CST

Network: ESPN

Best Win(s): Michigan beat Penn State (10-2), 49-10; Florida State beat Florida (8-4), 31-13

Worst Losses: Michigan lost Ohio State (11-1), 30-27 OT, Florida State lost to Louisville (9-3) 63-20

Common Opponents: None

Vegas Hotsheets Favorite: Michigan -6

Offensive Team Data: Michigan ; Total Yards,  439 YPG; Passing Yards,  216 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  223 YPG; Scoring Average,  41 PPG, Turnovers,  0.92 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 44.2%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 91% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 67%

Offensive Team Data: Florida State ; Total Yards,  426 YPG; Passing Yards, 233 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 193 YPG; Scoring Average  35 PPG, Turnovers,  1.42 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 44.6%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 96% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 76%

Defensive Team Data: Michigan ; Total Yards,  253 YPG; Passing Yards,  136 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  117 YPG; Scoring Average,  13 PPG, Turnovers,  1.42 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 20.7%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 65% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 41%

Defensive Team Data: Florida State ; Total Yards,  325 YPG; Passing Yards,  200 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  126 YPG; Scoring Average,  24 PPG, Turnovers,  1.33 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 33.6%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 83% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 83%

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take Arizona’s total yards on offense, add it to what Nevada gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Nevada’s total offense, add it to what Arizona gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards Advantage: Michigan 382 to 339.5

Passing Yards Advantage: Michigan 208 to 184.5

Rushing Yard Advantage: Michigan 174.5 to 155

Scoring Advantage: Michigan 32.5 to 24

Turnovers Advantage: Michigan 1.125 to 1.42

3rd Down Conversions Advantage: Michigan 38.9 to 32.65

Red Zone All Scores Advantage: Michigan 87 to 80.5

Red Zone TD’s Only Advantage: Michigan 75 to 58.5

The Game Simulator Says: Statistically, Michigan 8 Florida State 0: GS; Michigan wins 33-24 and covers the 6 points

Individuals to Watch: Michigan’s all everything, Jabrill Peppers & FSU All-American RB, Dalvin Cook

Sully Says: Michigan wins and covers!

Posted in #1 Uncategorized |

Nova Homes Loans Arizona Bowl

Bowl History: The Arizona Bowl, officially the Nova Home Loans Arizona Bowl for sponsorship purposes, is a post-season college football bowl game certified by the NCAAthat began play in the 2015 season. The game, which is held at Arizona Stadium in Tucson, is played between bowl-eligible teams from the MWC and SBC. The inaugural game was held on December 29, 2015, between the Nevada and the Colorado State. It was to be played between teams from C-USA and the Mountain West, with the Sun Belt as a secondary tie-in. However, due to a lack of bowl-eligible Conference USA and Sun Belt teams to meet the tie-in, the game was ultimately played between Mountain West teams, marking the first time since 1979 that two teams from the same conference appeared in a non-championship bowl.

Teams: South Alabama 6-6 (SBC) Air Force 9-3 (MWC)

Bowl Location: Arizona Stadium, Tucson, Arizona

Day, Date & Time: Friday, December 30, 2016, 4:30 p.m. CST

Network: Campus Insiders

Best Win(s): South Alabama Mississippi State (5-7) 21-20; Air Force beat Boise State (10-2) 27-20

Worst Losses: South Alabama Louisisana Monroe(4-8), 42-35; Air Force Hawaii (6-7), 34-27 in OT

Common Opponents: None

Vegas Hotsheets Favorite: Air Force -15

Offensive Team Data: South Alabama ; Total Yards,  383 YPG; Passing Yards,  236 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  146 YPG; Scoring Average,  26 PPG, Turnovers,  1.83 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 38%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 81% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 60%

Offensive Team Data: Air Force ; Total Yards,  452 YPG; Passing Yards, 129 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 323 YPG; Scoring Average  34 PPG, Turnovers,  1.42 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 51.4%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 87% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 61%

Defensive Team Data: South Alabama ; Total Yards,  396 YPG; Passing Yards,  179 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  217 YPG; Scoring Average,  26 PPG, Turnovers,  1.58 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 34.7%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 76% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 47%

Defensive Team Data: Air Force ; Total Yards,  370 YPG; Passing Yards,  252 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  118 YPG; Scoring Average,  27 PPG, Turnovers,  1.58 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 43.8%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 71% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 43%

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take Arizona’s total yards on offense, add it to what Nevada gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Nevada’s total offense, add it to what Arizona gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards Advantage: Air Force 424 to 376.5

Passing Yards Advantage: South Alabama 244 to 154

Rushing Yard Advantage: Air Force 270 to 132

Scoring Advantage: Air Force 30 to 26.5

Turnovers Advantage: Air Force 1.5 to 1.705

3rd Down Conversions Advantage: Air Force 43.05 to 40.9

Red Zone All Scores Advantage: Air Force 81.5 to 76

Red Zone TD’s Only Advantage: Air Force 54 to 51.5

The Game Simulator Says: Air Force 7,  South Alabama 1, GS thinks AF wins (30-27) but does not cover the 15

Individuals to Watch: 

Sully Says: AF wins but does not cover!

Posted in #1 Uncategorized |

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl

Bowl History: The Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl the NCAA certified this Bowl in 1998 and the game has been played annually since that time! This Bowl has had a variety of sponsors: American General Life & Accident (1998), homepoint.com (1999), Bridgestone (2003-2007) Gaylord Hotels (2002-2009) & Franklin American Mortgage (2010-present).   The first game in this bowl series took place on December, 29, 1998 … Virginia Tech beat Alabama, 38-7 while last years game featured, Louisville and Texas A&M, a game won by the Cardinals  (LU), 27-21! The conference tie-ins are ACC /SEC & the Bowl Pay out is $3,500,000.00

Teams: Nebraska 9-3 (B-10) Tennessee 8-4 (SEC)

Bowl Location: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee

Day, Date & Time: Friday, December 30, 2016, 2:30 p.m. CST

Network: ESPN

Best Win(s): Tennessee beat Va Tech (9-4) 45-24, Nebraska beat Minnesota (8-4), 24-17

Worst Losses: Tennessee lost to Alabama (13-0) 49-10; Nebraska lost to OSU 62-3

Common Opponents: None

Vegas Hotsheets Favorite: Tennessee -3

Offensive Team Data: Nebraska ; Total Yards,  386 0YPG; Passing Yards,  208 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  178 YPG; Scoring Average,  27 PPG, Turnovers,  1.08 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 45%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 81% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 60%

Offensive Team Data: Tennessee ; Total Yards,  437 YPG; Passing Yards, 234 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 203 YPG; Scoring Average  36 PPG, Turnovers,  1.92 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 41%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 89% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 73%

Defensive Team Data: Nebraska ; Total Yards,  351 YPG; Passing Yards,  210 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  141 YPG; Scoring Average,  23 PPG, Turnovers,  1.5 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 37%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 81% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 58%

Defensive Team Data: Tennessee ; Total Yards,  460 YPG; Passing Yards,  226 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  234 YPG; Scoring Average,  29 PPG, Turnovers,  1.83 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 38.4%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 92% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 62%

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take Arizona’s total yards on offense, add it to what Nevada gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Nevada’s total offense, add it to what Arizona gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards Advantage: Nebraska 423 to 394

Passing Yards Advantage: Tennessee 222 to 217

Rushing Yard Advantage: Nebraska 206 to 172

Scoring Advantage: Tennessee 29.5 to 28

Turnovers Advantage: Nebraska 1.455 to 1.71

3rd Down Conversions Advantage: Nebraska 41.7 to 39

Red Zone All Scores Advantage: Nebraska 86.5 to 85

Red Zone TD’s Only Advantage: Tennessee 65.5 to 61

The Game Simulator Says: Nebraska 5, Tennessee 3; GS Tennessee wins 30-28, but does not cover the 3 points

Individuals to Watch: 

Sully Says: Tennessee wins and covers

Posted in #1 Uncategorized |