Sully's Big Blog! Commentary on College Football, Weekly Games, And Strange Statistics!

Walk-Ons Independence Bowl

The Independence Bowl is a post-season National Collegiate Athletic Association-sanctioned Division I college football bowl game that is played annually each December at Independence Stadium in Shreveport, Louisiana.

Teams:  Louisiana Tech (C-USA) 9-3 / Miami (ACC) 6-6

Bowl Location: Shreveport, LA

Day, Date & Time: Thursday, December, 26, 2019, 4:00 EST

Network: ESPN

Best Win(s): Louisiana Tech: beat Southern Miss (7-5) 45-30, Miami: beat Virginia (9-4), 17-9, Florida State (6-6) 27-10, Pitt (7-5) 16-12, & Louisville (7-5), 52-27!

Worst Loss(es): La Tech lost to Marshall (8-4), 31-10; Miami lost to Duke (5-7), 27-17 & FIU (6-6), 30-24! 

Common Opponents: FIU: Miami lost to FIU, 30-24 Louisiana Tech beat FIU, 43-31!

Vegas Hot$heets Favorite: Miami -7.5 (All lines are opening lines & all recommend picks are based on opening lines)

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is, say Notre Dame is playing Wisconsin … we take ND’s total yards on offense, add it to the number the Badgers give up on defense, we get a total and then divide the total by 2 to get an average. We then invert the process, we now take Wisconsin’s total offense, add it to what the Irish give up on defense, get a 2nd total, and then divide that number by 2, to get the second average! The greater number (with the exception of Turnovers, lower # wins) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed: 1) Total Yards, 2) Rushing, 3) Passing, 4) Scoring, 5) 3rd Down (Conversions /Stops), 6) Turnovers, 7) Red Zone Scores (TD’s & FG), & 8) Red Zone TD’s (only TD’s)!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

 

Miami FL | Hurricanes Louisiana Tech | Bulldogs
Offense VS Defense 385 +1 376.5
Passing Off VS Def 252.5 +1 237.5
Rushing Off VS Def 132.5 139 +1
Scoring Off VS Def 26 27.5 +1
Turnovers Off VS Def 1.545 1.54 +1
3rd Conv Off VS Def 30.4 39.2 +1
Red Zone Scores 68.5 85.5 +1
Red Zone TD’s 50.5 57.5 +1
Totals 2 6

Louisiana Tech WINS Trophy

These teams have met four, with Miami winning all 4 of these games. The most recent is in 2004, a 48-0 pounding the Canes put on the Bulldogs!

Miami’s 2019 season was a mess, losing their 1st 2 games and then winning 4 of 5 (a loss to G-Tech, 28-21 in OT, that is hard to understand) beating Virginia, Pitt, Louisville & Florida State. Then on the verge of having an 8-4 season, lose to FIU & Duke (not Bowl Eligible)!

Meanwhile, La Tech loss its season opener to Texas (45-14) then won 8 in a row! With the season on the line vs Marshall & UAB, La Tech QB, J’Mar Smith & leading WR, Adrian Hardy were suspended and as a direct result, they lost both games & the division championship. Those players were reinstated & Louisiana won its final game vs UTSA, 27-17!

Sully Says: Take La Tech & 7.5 

Posted in #1 Uncategorized |

SoFi Hawai’i Bowl

The 2018 Hawaii Bowl was a College Football Bowl Game being played on December 22, 2018, in Honolulu, Hawai’i. It was the 17th edition of the Hawaii Bowl, and one of the 2018-19 bowl Games concluding the 2018 Football Season. This was the first time since 2007 that the bowl was not played on Christmas Eva.[Sponsored by the SoFi personal finance company, the game was officially called the SoFi Hawaii Bowl.

Teams:  Hawaii (MWC) 9-4 / BYU (IND) 7-5

Bowl Location: Honolulu, HI

Day, Date & Time: Tuesday, December, 24, 2019, 8:00 EST

Network: ESPN

Best Win(s): BYU: beat USC (8-4) 30-27 (OT), Tennessee (7-5), 29-26 (OT), Boise State (12-1) 28-25; Hawaii: beat to P-12 Teams; Arizona (4-8), 42-35 & Oregon State (5-7) 31-28!

Worst Loss(es): BYU lost to South Florida (4-8), 27-23; Hawaii lost to Fresno State (4-8), 41-38! 

Common Opponents: San Diego State & Boise State: BYU beat Boise State, 28-25 & lost to San Diego State, 13-3; Hawaii beat San Diego State, 14-11 & Lost to BSU (2), 59-37 & 31-10 (MWC Championship)!

Vegas Hot$heets Favorite: BYU -2 (All lines are opening lines & all recommend picks are based on opening lines)

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is, say Notre Dame is playing Wisconsin … we take ND’s total yards on offense, add it to the number the Badgers give up on defense, we get a total and then divide the total by 2 to get an average. We then invert the process, we now take Wisconsin’s total offense, add it to what the Irish give up on defense, get a 2nd total, and then divide that number by 2, to get the second average! The greater number (with the exception of Turnovers, lower # wins) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed: 1) Total Yards, 2) Rushing, 3) Passing, 4) Scoring, 5) 3rd Down (Conversions /Stops), 6) Turnovers, 7) Red Zone Scores (TD’s & FG), & 8) Red Zone TD’s (only TD’s)!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

BYU | Cougars Hawaii | Warriors
Offense VS Defense 433.5 +1 426
Passing Off VS Def 254.5 265.5 +1
Rushing Off VS Def 178.5 +1 160.5
Scoring Off VS Def 30 +1 28.5
Turnovers Off VS Def 1.445 +1 1.86
3rd Conv Off VS Def 41.8 43.25 +1
Red Zone Scores 78.5 80 +1
Red Zone TD’s 55.5 64.5 +1
Totals 4 4

A Tie?!
(Sully Says: Flip a Coin) Trophy

Historic Football Matchups

These Programs have met 4 times (since 2011) and BYU has one every meeting & done so by double digits in each game (2011, 41-20, 2012, 47-0; 2017, 30-20; & 2018, 49-23)!

This game is the most evenly balanced of any game we have broken down in the Bowl season thus far! Two common opponents, San Diego State & Boise State, BYU beat Boise, who Hawaii lost to, while the Rainbow Warriors beat SDSU, who the Cougars lost to in San Diego. They split the critical categories in the Simulator, BYU out performs Hawaii in the run & TO categories, while Hawaii prevails on 3rd Down & in the RZ.

Sully Says: Go with recent history and BYU beating better teams than Hawaii this season. Take BYU and give the Rainbow Warriors the 2 points!

Posted in #1 Uncategorized |

Bad Boy Movers Gasparilla Bowl

The Gasparilla Bowl is an annual NCAA-sanctioned post-season college football bowl game played in the Tampa Bay Area. It was first played in 2008 as the St. Petersburg Bowl at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida.

Teams:  Central Florida (AAC) 12-1 / Marshall (C-USA) 8-4

Bowl Location: Tampa, FL

Day, Date & Time: Monday, December, 23, 2019, 2:30 EST

Network: ESPN

Best Win(s): UCF: beat FAU (10-3) 48-14 ; Marshall: beat FAU (10-3), 36-31.

Worst Loss(es): UCF lost to Tulsa (4-8), 34-31; Marshall lost to Middle Tennessee (4-8) 24-13! 

Common Opponents: FAU & Cincinnati: UCF beat FAU, 48-14 & lost to Cincy, 27-24;  Marshall beat FAU, 36-31 & Lost to Cincy, 52-14!

Vegas Hot$heets Favorite: Central Florida (UCF) -17.5 (All lines are opening lines & all recommend picks are based on opening lines)

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is, say Notre Dame is playing Wisconsin … we take ND’s total yards on offense, add it to the number the Badgers give up on defense, we get a total and then divide the total by 2 to get an average. We then invert the process, we now take Wisconsin’s total offense, add it to what the Irish give up on defense, get a 2nd total, and then divide that number by 2, to get the second average! The greater number (with the exception of Turnovers, lower # wins) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed: 1) Total Yards, 2) Rushing, 3) Passing, 4) Scoring, 5) 3rd Down (Conversions /Stops), 6) Turnovers, 7) Red Zone Scores (TD’s & FG), & 8) Red Zone TD’s (only TD’s)!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Central Florida | Knights Marshall | Thundering Herd
Offense VS Defense 445 +1 377.5
Passing Off VS Def 271 +1 205
Rushing Off VS Def 174 +1 172.5
Scoring Off VS Def 33 +1 24.5
Turnovers Off VS Def 1.25 1.205 +1
3rd Conv Off VS Def 38.5 +1 33.3
Red Zone Scores 81 82.5 +1
Red Zone TD’s 62 +1 56.5
Totals 6 2

Central Florida WINS Trophy

Historic Football Matchups

These teams have met 4 times since 2009, UCF has won all four games (2009, 21-20; 2010, 34-14; 2011, 16-6; 2012, 54-17)

The Game Simulator likes UCF to control this game statistically, a 6-2 advantage. The run game, 3rd down, and half of the RZ (Scoring TD’s) all favor the Knights!

Sully Says: Take UCF to the bank on this one, Marshall will we be in with better Athletes, higher skill levels, and a team that is out to prove they are the best squad in the G5 ranks!

Posted in #1 Uncategorized |

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl

The New Orleans Bowl is an NCAA-sanctioned post-season college football bowl game that has been played annually since 2001. It is normally held at the Mercedes Benz Superdome in New Orleans; when the Superdome and the rest of the city suffered damage due to Hurricane Katrina in 2005, the game was temporarily moved to Cajun Field in Lafayette, LA and given the name New Orleans Bowl at Lafayette. Since 2006, the bowl has been sponsored by R+L Carriers and officially known as the R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl. The game was previously sponsored by Wyndham  Hotels & Resorts from 2002 to 2004 and was officially called the Wyndham New Orleans Bowl.

Teams:  Appalachian State (SBC) 12-1 / UAB (C-USA) 9-4

Bowl Location: New Orleans, LA

Day, Date & Time: Saturday, December, 21, 2019, 9:00 EST

Network: ESPN

Best Win(s): ASU: beat UNC (6-6) 34-31 & South Carolina (4-8), 20-15 ; UAB: beat Louisiana Tech (9-3), 20-14.

Worst Loss(es): Appalachian State lost only to Georgia Southern (7-5), 24-21; UAB lost to Southern Miss (5-7) 37-2! 

Common Opponents: South Alabama: App. State beat USA, 30-3;  UAB beat South Alabama, 35-3!

Vegas Hot$heets Favorite: Appalachian State -17.5 (All lines are opening lines & all recommend picks are based on opening lines)

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is, say Notre Dame is playing Wisconsin … we take ND’s total yards on offense, add it to the number the Badgers give up on defense, we get a total and then divide the total by 2 to get an average. We then invert the process, we now take Wisconsin’s total offense, add it to what the Irish give up on defense, get a 2nd total, and then divide that number by 2, to get the second average! The greater number (with the exception of Turnovers, lower # wins) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed: 1) Total Yards, 2) Rushing, 3) Passing, 4) Scoring, 5) 3rd Down (Conversions /Stops), 6) Turnovers, 7) Red Zone Scores (TD’s & FG), & 8) Red Zone TD’s (only TD’s)!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

UAB | Blazers Appalachian State | Mountaineers
Offense VS Defense 344.5 364.5 +1
Passing Off VS Def 196.5 +1 196.5 +1
Rushing Off VS Def 148 168 +1
Scoring Off VS Def 22 30 +1
Turnovers Off VS Def 1.77 1.115 +1
3rd Conv Off VS Def 31.75 37.4 +1
Red Zone Scores 82.5 86.5 +1
Red Zone TD’s 57 71.5 +1
Totals 1 8

Appalachian State WINS Trophy

Historic Football Matchups

These teams have not played a game since 2009!

The Game Simulator see’s Appalachian State dominating this Game 8-1. In the 4 areas of emphasis, (Rushing, TO’s, 3rd Down & RZ), App State has an advantage to a significant advantage in each of these categories in the Head to Head comparison!

Sully’s says: Do not be deterred by the the 17.5 points the Mountaineers are giving the Blazers. In their last 3 outings, ASU beat Georgia State, 56-27, Texas State, 35-13, & Troy, 48-13! UAB lost 35-2 to Southern Miss on November 9th, a team that does not have the offensive fire power of App. State! Take the Mountaineers & give the Blazers the points!

Posted in #1 Uncategorized |

Mitsubishi Motors Las Vegas Bowl

The Las Vegas Bowl is an NCAA-sanctioned Division I FBS post-season college football bowl game. It has been played annually at the 40,000-seat Sam Boyd Stadium in Whitney, Nevada, every December since 1992. The bowl is owned and operated by ESPN Events.

Teams:  Boise State (MWC) 12-1 / Washington (P-12) 7-5

Bowl Location: Las Vegas, NV

Day, Date & Time: Saturday, December, 21, 2019, 7:30 EST

Network: ABC

Best Win(s): BSU: beat FSU (6-6) 37-31 & AF (10-2), ; Washington: beat USC (8-4), 28-14 & BYU 45-19

Worst Loss(es): Boise lost only to BYU (7-5), 28-25 ; UW lost to Colorado (5-7) 20-14 & Stanford (4-8), 23-13! 

Common Opponents: Hawaii: Washington beat Hawaii, 52-20  Boise beat the Rainbow Warriors, 31-10 & BYU: Washington beat the Cougars, 45-19 while BSU lost to BYU, 28-25!

Vegas Hot$heets Favorite: Washington -3 (All lines are opening lines & all recommend picks are based on opening lines)

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is, say Notre Dame is playing Wisconsin … we take ND’s total yards on offense, add it to the number the Badgers give up on defense, we get a total and then divide the total by 2 to get an average. We then invert the process, we now take Wisconsin’s total offense, add it to what the Irish give up on defense, get a 2nd total, and then divide that number by 2, to get the second average! The greater number (with the exception of Turnovers, lower # wins) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed: 1) Total Yards, 2) Rushing, 3) Passing, 4) Scoring, 5) 3rd Down (Conversions /Stops), 6) Turnovers, 7) Red Zone Scores (TD’s & FG), & 8) Red Zone TD’s (only TD’s)!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Washington | Huskies Boise State | Broncos
Offense VS Defense 371 399.5 +1
Passing Off VS Def 239.5 246 +1
Rushing Off VS Def 131 153 +1
Scoring Off VS Def 26.5 28.5 +1
Turnovers Off VS Def 1.315 +1 1.405
3rd Conv Off VS Def 36.2 43.3 +1
Red Zone Scores 84 84.5 +1
Red Zone TDs 57.5 59 +1
Totals 1 7

Boise State WINS Trophy

Historic Football Matchups

These teams have played 3 times since 2009, Boise has won 2, 2012, 28-26 & again in 2015, 16-13. UW has won one of the three games, 2013, 38-6!

The Game Simulator likes Boise to dominate in this game (always be mindful of who the numbers are earned against, Boise plays in the MWC / while UW battles in the P-12), 7 to 1! The Huskies will outperform the Broncos in only the Take-A-Way category according to the Simulator. Boise will run the ball better, win in the 3rd Down realm, and be more productive in the RZ.

Sully Says: What a great game for Chris Peterson (current Washington and former Boise Head Coach) to end his career, the 2 programs that he has given so much to over the years!

Boise is 6-1 in their last 7 vs P-12 (only loss was a 47-44, in 2017, to WSU) and will find a in this game. Take Boise & the 3 points!

 

Posted in #1 Uncategorized |

Camellia Bowl

The Camellia Bowl is an annual National Collegiate Athletic Association sanctioned FBS college football bowl game played in Montgomery, Alabama, at the Cramton Bowl. The game features teams from the Sun Belt Conference and the Mid-American Conference.

Teams:  FIU (C-USA) 6-6 / Arkansas State (SBC) 7-5

Bowl Location: Montgomery, AL

Day, Date & Time: Saturday, December, 21, 2019, 5:30 EST

Network: ESPN

Best Win(s): FIU: beat Miami FL (6-6) 30-24, in a shocker; Arkansas State: beat Georgia Southern (7-5), 38-35

Worst Loss(es): FIU lost to Middle Tennessee (4-8), 50-17 ; ASU lost to South Alabama (2-10) 34-30!

Common Opponents: None

Vegas Hot$heets Favorite: ASU -3 (All lines are opening lines & all recommend picks are based on opening lines)

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is, say Notre Dame is playing Wisconsin … we take ND’s total yards on offense, add it to the number the Badgers give up on defense, we get a total and then divide the total by 2 to get an average. We then invert the process, we now take Wisconsin’s total offense, add it to what the Irish give up on defense, get a 2nd total, and then divide that number by 2, to get the second average! The greater number (with the exception of Turnovers, lower # wins) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed: 1) Total Yards, 2) Rushing, 3) Passing, 4) Scoring, 5) 3rd Down (Conversions /Stops), 6) Turnovers, 7) Red Zone Scores (TD’s & FG), & 8) Red Zone TD’s (only TD’s)!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Arkansas State | Red Wolves Florida International | Golden Panthers
Offense VS Defense 411.5 420 +1
Passing Off VS Def 245 +1 227
Rushing Off VS Def 166.5 193 +1
Scoring Off VS Def 30.5 31 +1
Turnovers Off VS Def 1.46 1.25 +1
3rd Conv Off VS Def 37.1 37.75 +1
Red Zone Scores 88.5 +1 76.5
Red Zone TD’s 59.5 +1 54.5
Totals 3 5

Florida International WINS Trophy

Historic Football Matchups

These teams have played 4 times since 2009: Arkansas State won in 09, 27-10, in 2011, 34-16, and again in 2012, 34-16. FIU’s lone win came in 2010, 3-24!

 

The Game Simulator favors FIU in this ball game. The numbers say the FIU Golden Panthers will run the ball better, win on 3rd down, and out-perform the Red Wolves in the Take-A-way battle.

Sully Says: take the Golden Panthers and the 3 points in this one!

Posted in #1 Uncategorized |

Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl

The Boca Raton Bowl is an annual NCAA sanctioned post-season FBS bowl game played in Boca Raton, Florida since December 2014 on Florida Atlantic’s campus in FAU Stadium.

Since 2017, the game has been sponsored by the New York-based beverage company Cheribundi and for sponsorship reasons was the Cheribundi Tart Cherry Boca Raton Bowl that year; it has been the Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl since 2018. The bowl’s previous sponsor was the sporting goods company Marmot (2015).

Teams:  SMU (AAC) 10-2 / Florida Atlantic (C-USA) 10-3 

Bowl Location: Boca Raton, FL

Day, Date & Time: Saturday, December, 21, 2019, 3:30 EST

Network: ABC

Best Win(s): FAU: beat UAB (9-4) 49-6, in C-USA Championship Game; SMU: beat TCU, 41-38 & Temple, 45-21

Worst Loss(es): SMU lost to 2 very good teams, Navy, 35-28 & Memphis 54-48 ; FAU lost to Ohio State, 45-21, UCF, 48-14, & 8-4 Marshall, 36-31!

Common Opponents: None

Vegas Hot$heets Favorite: SMU -3 (All lines are opening lines & all recommend picks are based on opening lines)

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is, say Notre Dame is playing Wisconsin … we take ND’s total yards on offense, add it to the number the Badgers give up on defense, we get a total and then divide the total by 2 to get an average. We then invert the process, we now take Wisconsin’s total offense, add it to what the Irish give up on defense, get a 2nd total, and then divide that number by 2, to get the second average! The greater number (with the exception of Turnovers, lower # wins) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed: 1) Total Yards, 2) Rushing, 3) Passing, 4) Scoring, 5) 3rd Down (Conversions /Stops), 6) Turnovers, 7) Red Zone Scores (TD’s & FG), & 8) Red Zone TD’s (only TD’s)!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Florida Atlantic | Owls SMU | Mustangs
Offense VS Defense 440 +1 435
Passing Off VS Def 279 +1 273.5
Rushing Off VS Def 160.5 161.5 +1
Scoring Off VS Def 33.5 +1 32.5
Turnovers Off VS Def 1.335 +1 1.7
3rd Conv Off VS Def 39.25 +1 37.8
Red Zone Scores 86.5 +1 76.5
Red Zone TDs 58.5 +1 58
Totals 7 1

Florida Atlantic WINS Trophy

Historic Football Matchups

The Game Simulator thinks FAU will dominate this game! SMU wins only 1 category, rushing O / D comparison, otherwise the Owls dominate! A major factor is that Lane Kiffin will not be calling plays and this will make a difference in this game. The AAC is the strongest conference in the G5, so their numbers (or lack of # in this comparison) were established against stronger competition.

Sully Says: Kiffin is the determinate here, take the Mustangs and give the Owls the 3 points!

Posted in #1 Uncategorized |

New Mexico Bowl

The New Mexico Bowl is an NCAA-sanctioned post-season college football bowl game that has been played annually since 2006 at Dreamstyle stadium, on the campus of the University New Mexico in Albuquerque, New Mexico. Owned and operated by ESPN Events, it has typically been scheduled as one of the first games of the bowl season, and is currently played between teams from C-USA and the MWC.

Teams:  Central Michigan (MAC) 8-4 / San Diego State (MWC) 9-3 

Bowl Location: Albuquerque, NM

Day, Date & Time: Saturday, December, 21, 2019, 2:00 EST

Network: ESPN 

Best Win(s): C. Michigan: beat Toledo (6-6) 49-7; San Diego St.: beat UCLA (4-8), 30-13

Worst Loss(es): C. Michigan lost to Wis. (10-3) 61-0; SDSU lost Nevada (7-5), 17-13

Common Opponents: New Mexico St.: CM beat NM St. 42-28/SDSU beat NM St. 31-10

Vegas Hot$heets Favorite: San Diego State -4.5 (All lines are opening lines & all recommend picks are based on opening lines)

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is, say Notre Dame is playing Wisconsin … we take ND’s total yards on offense, add it to the number the Badgers give up on defense, we get a total and then divide the total by 2 to get an average. We then invert the process, we now take Wisconsin’s total offense, add it to what the Irish give up on defense, get a 2nd total, and then divide that number by 2, to get the second average! The greater number (with the exception of Turnovers, lower # wins) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed: 1) Total Yards, 2) Rushing, 3) Passing, 4) Scoring, 5) 3rd Down (Conversions /Stops), 6) Turnovers, 7) Red Zone Scores (TD’s & FG), & 8) Red Zone TD’s (only TD’s)!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

San Diego State | Aztecs Central Michigan | Chippewas
Offense VS Defense 340 365 +1
Passing Off VS Def 215 238 +1
Rushing Off VS Def 125.5 126.5 +1
Scoring Off VS Def 23 +1 22.5
Turnovers Off VS Def 0.98 +1 1.875
3rd Conv Off VS Def 35.55 38.15 +1
Red Zone Scores 85.5 +1 79.5
Red Zone TD’s 56.5 59 +1
Totals 3 5

Central Michigan WINS Trophy

Historic Football Matchups

1st Meeting on the Gridiron.

Sully Says: Rocky Long’s team plays in a better conference (MWC vs MAC) making the #’s somewhat skewed, and will win and significantly win the Turnover battle. Take SDSU & give CM the points!

Posted in #1 Uncategorized |

Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl

The Frisco Bowl is an annual National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) sanctioned post-season Division 1 Football Subdivision (FBS) college football bowl game played in Frisco, TX, since December 2017. Since 2019, it has been sponsored by Tropical Smoothie Cafe and known as the Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl, Destination XL Group was the original sponsor.

 

Teams:  Utah State (MWC) 7-5 / Kent State (MAC) 6-6 

Bowl Location: Frisco, TX

Day, Date & Time: Friday, December, 20, 2019, 7:30 EST

Network: ESPN 2

Best Win(s): Utah St: beat San Diego St. (9-3) 23-17; Kent St.: beat Buffalo (7-5), 30-13

Worst Loss(es)Utah St lost @ H to BYU (7-5) 42-14; Kent St lost @ Ohio (6-6), 45-38 

Common Opponents: None

Vegas Hot$heets Favorite: Utah State -8 (All lines are opening lines & all recommend picks are based on opening lines)

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is, say Notre Dame is playing Wisconsin … we take ND’s total yards on offense, add it to the number the Badgers give up on defense, we get a total and then divide the total by 2 to get an average. We then invert the process, we now take Wisconsin’s total offense, add it to what the Irish give up on defense, get a 2nd total, and then divide that number by 2, to get the second average! The greater number (with the exception of Turnovers, lower # wins) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed: 1) Total Yards, 2) Rushing, 3) Passing, 4) Scoring, 5) 3rd Down (Conversions /Stops), 6) Turnovers, 7) Red Zone Scores (TD’s & FG), & 8) Red Zone TD’s (only TD’s)!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

                         Utah State | Aggies  Kent State | Golden Flashes
Offense VS Defense 447.5 +1 412.5
Passing Off VS Def 248.5 +1 223
Rushing Off VS Def 199 +1 189.5
Scoring Off VS Def 29.5 +1 28
Turnovers Off VS Def 1.585 1.42 +1
3rd Conv Off VS Def 45.85 +1 44.95
Red Zone Scores 79% 86% +1
Red Zone TD’s 52% 64% +1
Totals 5 3

Utah State WINS Trophy

Historic Football Matchups

No Data, this is the 1st meeting between these teams!

Sully Says: Utah State wins on the game simulator, 5-3 (see above or go to the Game Simulator on the site for more info). The Simulator has a lot of data this time of year and one needs to focus on 4 areas (Rushing, Turnovers, who wins on 3rd down, & RZ performance, counting both FG/TD’s and then, counting only TD’s!

The Aggies will run the ball better than the Golden Flashes & performed better on 3rd down; while, the data says Flashes will out perform the Aggies, in 3 areas, 1) TO’s, 2) will score (FG / TD at a higher percentage when in the RZ & 3) score a higher %age of TD’s when penetrating the RZ!

Utah State plays in the Mountain West Conference (MWC), the 2nd best league behind the AAC (American) in the Group of 5, while the MAC may be the weakest league in the G5 this year (The Sun Belt’s, Appalachian St. & Louisiana are better that any team in the MAC) and C-USA is simply better than the MAC. 

It should be emphasized that Utah State’s numbers were earned in a better conference! Further, the Aggies played a tough Non-Conference (NC) schedule; LSU, 42-6 loss, BYU, 42-14 loss & Wake Forest, a 38-35 loss. The Aggies ended their season, winning 2 of their last 3 (they beat Wyoming, 26-21, & New Mexico, 38-25. & lost to Boise State, 56-21, between those 2 wins! 

That said, Kent State is on a 3 game win streak, beating Buffalo, 30-27,  Ball State, 41-38, & Eastern Michigan, 34-26, to end their season. They also played a challenging NC schedule, loosing to Arizona State, 30-6, Auburn, 55-16, & Wisconsin 48-0! 

Sully Says: The data is split on this game’s outcome, so go with the better conference where the numbers were earned: Take Utah State to win and cover!

Posted in #1 Uncategorized |

Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl

Bowl History:

The 2019 Bahamas Bowl is a college Football Game that will be played on December 20, 2019, with kickoff scheduled for 2:00 p.m. EST on ESPN. It will be the 6th edition of the Bahamas, and is the first Bowl of the 2019-20 bowl concluding the 2019 FBS Season. Sponsored by the Chicago suburb of Elk Grove, IL, the game will be officially known as the Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl.

 

Teams:  Buffalo Bulls (MAC) 7-5 / UNC Charlotte (C-USA) 7-5 

Bowl Location: Nassau, Bahamas

Day, Date & Time: Friday, December, 20, 2019, 2:00 EST

Network: ESPN

Best Win(s): Buffalo: beat Temple (8-4) 38-22; Charlotte: beat Marshall (8-4), 24-13

Worst LossesBuffalo lost @ Kent State (6-6) 30-27; Charlotte lost @ FIU (6-6) 48-23

Common Opponents: None

Vegas Hot$heets Favorite: Buffalo -4.5 (All lines are opening lines)

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is, say Notre Dame is playing Wisconsin … we take ND’s total yards on offense, add it to the number the Badgers give up on defense, we get a total and then divide the total by 2 to get an average. We then invert the process, we now take Wisconsin’s total offense, add it to what the Irish give up on defense, get a 2nd total, and then divide that number by 2, to get the second average! The greater number (with the exception of Turnovers, lower # wins) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed: 1) Total Yards, 2) Rushing, 3) Passing, 4) Scoring, 5) 3rd Down (Conversions /Stops), 6) Turnovers, 7) Red Zone Scores (TD’s & FG), & 8) Red Zone TD’s (only TD’s)!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Buffalo | Bulls UNC Charlotte | 49ers
Offense VS Defense 386.5 +1 368.5
Passing Off VS Def 162.5 212.5 +1
Rushing Off VS Def 224 +1 156.5
Scoring Off VS Def 32.5 +1 27
Turnovers Off VS Def 1.125 +1 1.545
3rd Conv/Stops Off VS Def 42.9 +1 37.15
Red Zone Scores 84.5% +1 78.5%
Red Zone TD’s 70% +1 65%
Totals 7 1

Buffalo WINS Trophy

Historic Football Matchups

No Data, this is the 1st meeting between these teams!

Sully Says: Buffalo wins on the game simulator, 7-1 (see above or go to the Game Simulator on the site for more info). The only statistical area where Charlotte has an edge is in the passing game, 213 yards for the 49’s to 163 yards for the Bulls. Buffalo will run the ball better, win on 3rd down, and out perform the 49’s in the Red Zone! Take the Bulls and give the points.

Posted in #1 Uncategorized |