Sully's Big Blog! Commentary on College Football, Weekly Games, And Strange Statistics!

The ACC vs Power 5, Group of 5, & FCS Opponents in 2017

The Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) has 14 teams and 2 Divisions, the Atlantic and the Coastal

The Atlantic Division: Boston College (BC), Clemson, Florida State (FSU), Louisville, NC State, Syracuse, & Wake Forest (WF).

Coastal Division: Duke, Georgia Tech (GT), Miami, North Carolina (UNC), Pittsburgh (Pitt), Virginia, & Virginia Tech.

The ACC vs Power Five Conferences (P5)

ACC vs the Big 12: Duke takes on Baylor @ Home 9/23/17; Pitt welcomes Oklahoma State on 9/16/17; Virginia Tech plays host to West Virginia on 9/2/17;  ACC challenges the Big-12 in 3 games in 2017′

ACC vs the Big Ten: Duke hosts Northwestern on 9/9/17; Louisville welcomes Purdue on 9/2/1; Pitt travels to Penn State 9/9/17; Virginia has a Home date with Indiana on 9/9/17. ACC takes on the B-10 4 times in 2017

Sully’s College Football Page (SCFP) breaks the four Independents into quasi P5’s ( ND & BYU) & G5’s (Massachusetts {U-Mass} & Army). Please do not waste your time agreeing or disagreeing with this breakdown, that argument will not effect how we disseminated the data. We mention it for your clarifcation only! That Said!

ACC vs P5 Independents: BC takes on ND in Boston on 9/16/17; Miami Welcomes (well sort of welcomes) ND on 11/11/17; NC State travels to ND on 10/28/17; UNC battles ND @ Home on 10/7/17; WF Travels to ND on 11/4/17.  All 5 ACC games are against Norte Dame, the Conference does not play BYU in 2017!

ACC vs PAC 12 (Pacifis Athletic Conference): UNC plays California @ Chapel Hill. This is the only regular season game between the ACC and the P-12 in 2017!

ACC vs the SEC (Southeastern Conference): Clemson takes on 2 SEC clubs, Auburn @ Home on 9/9/17 & @ South Carolina on 11/25/17; FSU battles Alabama @ a neutral site, Mercedez-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia on 9/2/17 & @ Florida 11/25/17; GT hosts Tennessee on 9/4 (Memorial Day Monday)/17 & @ home vs Georgia 11/25/17; Louisville travels to Kentucky 11/25/17; NC State puts out the welcoming mat for South Carolina on 9/2/17; Syracuse @ home vs LSU on 9/23/17! The ACC and the SEC will battle 9 times in the 2017 regular season!

The ACC plays 8 Conference Games & 4 Non-Conference Games (14 teams x 4  = 56 NC Games) In 2017, the League will play 22 of the 56 (40% of their NC Schedule) contests against Power 5 Programs!

The ACC vs the Group of Five Conferences (G5)

ACC vs AAC (American Athletic Conference):  BC @ U-Conn 11/18/17; GT at Central Florida 9/16/17; Virginia @ Home vs U-Conn 9/16/17; Virginia Tech @ East Carolina 9/16/17; 4 Games between the ACC & the AAC!

ACC vs C-USA ( Conference – Unites States of America): NC State @ Home vs Marshall 9/9/17; UNC @ Home vs Old Dominion 9/16/17; Pitt @ Home vs Rice 9/30/17; Syracuse @ home vs Middle Tennessee 9/9/17; Virginia Tech @ Home vs Old Dominion 9/23/17. The ACC will battle C-USA 5 times during the 2017 regular season!

ACC vs the Independent Group of Five: Duke marches on West Point to battle Army on 11/11/17 (Armistices Day)? Maybe Duke should stand down … for at least a day! This is the only game the ACC has with the G5 Independents as the League does not play U-Mass!

ACC vs MAC (Mid-American Conference): BC Plays 2 MAC clubs, @ Northern Illinois on 9/1/17 & @ Home vs Central Michigan on 9/30/17; Clemson welcomes Kent State on 9/2/17; Louisville battles Kent State @ Home on 9/23/17; Miami FL takes on Toledo @ Home on 11/11/17; Syracuse is @ Home vs Central Michigan on 9/16/17. The ACC takes on the MAC 6 times in the 2017 regular season!

ACC vs the MWC (Mountain West Conference): Virginia Travels to Boise State on 9/23/17; WF @ Home vs Utah State on 9/16/17. The ACC lines up against the MWC twice during the 2017 regular season!

ACC vs the SBC (Sun Belt Conference): FSU @ Home vs Louisiana Monroe 9/9/17; Miami vs Arkansas State @ Home; Syracuse @ Home vs Coastal Carolina on 9/2/17; WF vs Appalachian State on 9/23/17. The ACC meets the SBC in 4 games in 2017

The ACC will do battle in 22 games vs the Group of 5, the exact number of games the ACC will play vs the P5! The ACC will play 80% of its NC Schedule against FBS opponents! 

ACC vs FCS

ACC outings against FCS Opponents: Clemson @ Home vs The Citadel Southern Conference (SoCon); Duke @ Home vs North Carolina Central Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (MEAC); Florida State @ Home vs Delaware State (MEAC); Georgia Tech @ Home vs Jacksonville State Ohio Valley Conference (OVC); Louisville @ Home vs Murray State (OVC); Miami @ Home against Bethune-Cookman (MEAC); NC State @ Home will line up against Furman (SoCon); UNC @ Home vs Western Illinois Missouri Valley Football Conference (MVFC); Pitt @ Home vs Youngstown State (MVFC); Virginia @ Home vs Willian & Mary Colonial Athletic Association (CAA); Virginia Tech @ Home vs Delaware (CAA); WF @ Home vs Presbyterian Big South Conference (BSC). Only Boston College & Syracuse do not play a FCS (63 scholarship program) in 2017 regualar season!

The ACC schedule breaks down as follows: 56 NC Games, 22 vs P5 opponents, 22 vs G5 teams & 12 against FCS clubs!

Up Next: The Big 12

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American Athletic Conference VS Power 5, Group of 5, & FCS Opponents

The American Athletic Conference has 12 teams and is broken into two divisions, West Division: Houston, Memphis, Navy, Southern Methodist, Tulane, & Tulsa; East Division: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Connecticut, East Carolina, South Florida, & Temple.

Here is the breakdown of the AAC non-conference schedule for 2017. The American is widely regarded as the best league in the Group of 5. The G5’s are made of the AAC, Conference USA, Mid-American Conference, the Mountain West Conference, & The Sun Belt Conference! For more detailed info refer to the conference and team pages on the site!

AAC vs Power 5

American Athletic Conference (AAC): plays four games against the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC). Central Florida (UCF) faces Georgia Tech at Home on 9/16/17;  Connecticut (U-Conn) Travels to Virginia on 9/16/17 & Boston College on 11/18/17; and East Carolina welcomes Virginia Tech on 9/16/17

AAC vs Big 12: The American takes on the B-12 in 5 ballgames in 2017! East Carolina @ West Virginia on 9/9/17; Houston hosts Texas Tech on 9/23/17; SMU visits TCU on 9/16/17, Tulane heads for Oklahoma on 9/16/17; & Tulsa plays @ Oklahoma State on 9/9/17!

AAC vs Big Ten: UCF travels to Maryland for an encounter on 9/23/17, Cincinnati heads north for a date with Michigan 9/9/17, & South Florida (USF) host the Illini on 9/9/17.

AAC vs the PAC-12: These conferences meet only twice during the 2017 regular season. Houston heads west to take on Arizona on 9/9/17 & Memphis Welcomes UCLA to Tennessee on 9/16!

AAC vs the SEC: The American has only one game against the Mighty SEC;  U-Conn takes on Missouri, at home, on 10/28/17!

Sully’s College Football Page (SCFP) breaks the four Independents into quasi P5’s ( ND & BYU) & G5’s (Massachusetts {U-Mass} & Army). Please do not waste your time agreeing or disagreeing with this breakdown, that argument will not effect how we disseminated the data. We mention it for your clarifcation only! That Said!

AAC vs P5 Independents: Temple has a scheduled stop (9/2/17) at South Bend, to take on the Irish; while Navy sets sail for ND in November, arriving on 11/18/17. Meanwhile, East Carolina entertains BYU on 10/21/17.

The American Athletic Conference (12 teams, 8 conference games, & 4 non-conferences tilts per team) has 48 non-conference engagements to fill. The AAC meets P5’s in 18 of a possible 48 dates.

AAC vs Group of 5

AAC vs Conference USA (C-USA): UCF plays host to Florida International (FIU) 9/2/17; Cincinnati battles Marshall in Cincy on 9/30/17; Houston take on 2 C-USA opponents @ Texas San Antonio (UTSA) on 9/2/17 & Rice on 9/16/17 at Home; Navy visits Florida Atlantic (FAU) on 9/2/17; Southern Methodist (SMU) welcomes Nothh Texas on 9/9/17; & Tulane travels to FIU on 10/14/17!

AAC vs the Mid-American Conference (MAC): Cincinniti Plays at Miami Ohio on 9/16/17 & Tulsa heads north to take on Toledo on 9/16/17.

AAC vs Mountain West Conference (MWC): Navy challenges Air Force at Home on 10/7/17; USF travels to San Jose State on 8/26/17; & Tulsa welcomes New Mexico on 9/23/17.

ACC vs Sun Belt Conference (SBC): Memphis lines up against Louisiana Monroe (ULM) at home on 8/31/17 & plays @ Georgia State on 11/18/17; SMU plays Arkansas State at Home on 9/23/17; Tulsa welcomes Louisiana Lafayette on 9/9/17

AAC vs G5 Independents: Navy takes on Army in Philadelphia on 12/9/17; USF meets U-Mass in Florida on 10/14/17; Temple plays both G5 Independents, U-Mass at Home on 9/16/17 & @ Army on 10/21/17; and Tulane battles Army at Home on 9/23/17.

AAC plays 21 (vs C-USA 7, MAC 2, MWC 3, SBC 4, & G5 Independent 5) of its 48 non-conference against G5 opponents!

AAC vs Football Championship Subdivision (FCS): {Note: all games vs FCS are played in AAC Arenas} UCF vs Maine, Colonial Athletic Association (CAA) 9/30/17; Cincinnati vs Austin Peay, Ohio Valley Conference (OVC) 8/31/17; U-Conn vs Holy Cross, Patriot League (PL) 8/31/17; East Carolina vs James Madison (CAA), Defending FCS National Champions 9/2/17; Memphis vs Southern Illinois, Missouri Valley Football Concerence(MVFC) 9/23/17; SMU vs Stephen F. Austin, Southland Conference (SLC) 9/2/17; USF vs Stony Brook (CAA) 9/2/17; Temple vs Villanova, (CAA) 9/9/17; Tulane vs Grambling State, Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (MEAC) 9/2/17

AAC lines up 9 times vs FCS Opponents

AAC 48 non-conference games break down as follows; VS P5’s, 18 Games, vs G5’s, 21 Games and vs FCS opponents, 9 games for a total of 48 NC Games!

It should be noted that both Power Five & Group of 5 Programs must award 85 full scholarships, while FCS Programs are allowed, but not required, to provide a maximum of 63 scholarships, which can be divided into many conbinations .. yet not more than 85 players can receive football dollars!

 

Up Next: Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC)

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College Football 2017 Week One’ best NC games or best NC opponents vs that Conference

The factors influencing the identified games are P5 vs P5 and a G5 playing a very good (defined as competitive with P5 programs) G5 team!

 

Best Games/Opponents in the ACC Week One (August 31st through September 4th)

  1. Alabama vs Florida State (Atlanta GA)***
  2. Tennessee vs Georgia Tech (@ Atlanta GA, 9/4/17)
  3. Virginia Tech @ West Virginia (@ Landover, MD)
  4. California @ North Carolina
  5. South Carolina @ NC State (@ Charleston, SC)
  6. Purdue vs Louisville(@ Indianapolis, IN)

Best Games/Opponents in the Big-12 Week One (August 31st through September 2nd)

  1. Maryland @ Texas
  2. Virginia Tech @ West Virginia (@ Landover, MD)

Best Games/Opponents in the Big Ten Week One (August 31st through September 2nd)

  1. Michigan vs Florida (Arlington TX)***
  2. Maryland @ Texas
  3. Purdue vs Louisville (@ Indianapolis, IN)
  4. Washington @ Rutgers

Best Games/Opponents in the PAC-12 Week One (August 31st through September 2nd)

  1. Texas A&M @ UCLA
  2. Cal @ Noth Carolina
  3. Washington @ Rutgers

Best Games/Opponents in the SEC Week One (August 31st through September 2nd)

  1. Alabama vs Florida State (Atlanta GA)***
  2. Michigan vs Florida (Arlington TX)***
  3. Tennessee @ Georgia Tech (@ Atlanta GA, 9/4/17)
  4. Texas A&M @ UCLA
  5. BYU @ LSU
  6. South Carolina @ NC State(@Charleston, SC)

Best Games/Opponents P5 Independents Week One (August 31st through September 2nd)

  1. Temple @ Notre Dame
  2. BYU @ LSU

Best Games/Opponents in the AAC Week One (August 31st through September 2nd)

  1. Tulsa @ Oklahoma State
  2. Temple @ ND

Best Games/Opponents in the C-USA Week One (August 31st through September 2nd)

  1. UTEP @ Oklahoma
  2. Stanford @ Rice
  3. Southern Miss @ Kentucky
  4. Vanderbilt @ Middle Tennessee

Best Games/Opponents in the MAC Week One (August 31st through September 2nd)

  1. Kent State @ Clemson
  2. Western Michigan @ USC
  3. Akron @ Penn State
  4. Buffalo @ Minnesota
  5. Northern Illinois @ Boston College
  6. Ball State @ Illinois
  7. Bowling Green @ Michigan State

Best Games/Opponents in the MWC Week One (August 31st through September 2nd)

  1. Utah State @ Wisconsin
  2. Colorado State @ Colorado
  3. Wyoming @ Iowa
  4. Nevada @ Northwestern
  5. South Florida vs San Jose State
  6. Boise State vs Troy

Best Games/Opponents in the SBC Week One (August 26st through September 2nd)

  1. Appalachian State @ Georgia
  2. Georgia Southern @ Auburn
  3. Arkansas State @ Nebraska
  4. Troy @ Boise State
  5. South Alabama @ Ole Miss
  6. Louisiana Monroe @ Memphis
  7. New Mexica State @ Arizona State

Best Games/Opponents in the G5 Independents Week One (August 31st through September 2nd)

  1. U-Mass @ Coastal Carolina

For more scheduling information go to Sully’s College Football Page  or to Kevin Kelly’s Site: FBSchedules… Stay tuned  … more to follow

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Allstate Sugar Bowl

Bowl History: The Sugar Bowl is an annual American college football bowl game played in the Mercedez-Benz Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana. The Sugar Bowl has been played annually since January 1, 1935, and celebrated its 75th anniversary on January 2, 2009. The Sugar Bowl, along with the Orange Bowl and Sun Bowl, are the second-oldest bowl games in the country, behind the Rose Bowl Game. The Sugar Bowl is also a member of the College Football Playoff Presently, its official title is the Allstate Sugar Bowl after its current sponsor, the Allstate insurance company. The Sugar Bowl has had a longstanding — albeit not exclusive — relationship with the Southeastern Conference (SEC) (which once had a member institution based in New Orleans, Tulane University; another Louisiana school, Louisiana State University (LSU) in Baton Rouge, is still in the SEC today). From 1950 to 1995, only once did the Sugar Bowl not feature an SEC team. That relationship has been altered over the past twenty years due to conference realignmentsand the emergence of a series of colitions and alliences intending to produce an undisputed national championship in college football, but the ties between the Sugar Bowl and the SEC have persisted and have recently been strengthened. The SEC’s opponent has varied over the years, but was often the runner-up of the Big 8 or SWC, or a major independent. Since 2015, The Sugar Bowl, along with the Rose, Orange Cotton, Peach, and Fiesta bowls, is one of the “New Years Six” bowls in rotation for the College Football Playoff. It hosted a playoff semifinal following the 2014 season, and will next host one following the 2017 season. In other years, it will feature the best available teams from SEC the and Big 12 Conferences,[2] an arrangement nearly identical with the relationship between theRose Bowl and the champions of the B-10 and P-12. As a member of the BCS, the Sugar Bowl hosted the the BCS National Championshipe twice (2000 and 2004). However, from the 2006 season to the 2013 season, the BCS NCG had been a stand-alone event, following one week after the New Year’s Day bowl games. This means that, under the now-defunct BCS format, no traditional bowl game hosted the BCS National Championship Game, but that game was played at the venue of one of those traditional major bowls, rotating amongst the four sites, including the Superdome. The payout for the 2006 game was $14–17 million per participating team. According to Sports Illistrated, the 2007 salary for Sugar Bowl CEO Paul Hoolahan was $607,500.[3]

Teams: Oklahoma 10-2 (B-12) vs Auburn 8-4 (SEC)

Bowl Location: Pasadena, California

Day, Date & Time: Monday, January 2, 2017

Network: ESPN

Best Win(s): Oklahoma beat Oklahoma State 10-3 (B-12), Auburn beat Arkansas, 56-3

Worst Losses: Oklahoma was destroyed by Ohio State, 45-23, Auburn, lost to Texas A&M, 29-16

Common Opponents: None

Vegas Hotsheets Favorite: Oklahoma -5.5

Offensive Team Data: Auburn ; Total Yards,  450 YPG; Passing Yards,  172 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  278 YPG; Scoring Average,  32 PPG, Turnovers,  1 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 43.6%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 87% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 56%

Offensive Team Data: Oklahoma ; Total Yards,  558 YPG; Passing Yards, 320 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 239 YPG; Scoring Average  45 PPG, Turnovers,  1.25 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 51.6%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 90% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 69%

Defensive Team Data: Auburn ; Total Yards,  342 YPG; Passing Yards,  221 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  121 YPG; Scoring Average,  16 PPG, Turnovers,  1.33 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 34.6%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 67% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 33%

Defensive Team Data: Oklahoma ; Total Yards,  438 YPG; Passing Yards,  278 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  161 YPG; Scoring Average,  30 PPG, Turnovers,  1.33 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 44.2%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 80% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 40%

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take Arizona’s total yards on offense, add it to what Nevada gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Nevada’s total offense, add it to what Arizona gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards Advantage: Oklahoma 450 to 444

Passing Yards Advantage: Oklahoma 270.5 to 225

Rushing Yard Advantage: Auburn 219.5 to 180

Scoring Advantage: Auburn 31 to 30.5

Turnovers Advantage: Auburn 1.165 to 1.29

3rd Down Conversions Advantage: Auburn 43.9 to 43.1

Red Zone All Scores Advantage: Auburn 83.5 to 78.5

Red Zone TD’s Only Advantage: Oklahoma 51 to 48

The Game Simulator Says: Auburn 5, Oklahoma 3, Take Auburn and the 5.5 as the Tigers win outright, 31 to 30.5

Individuals to Watch: OU: QB Baker Mayfield & RB’s, Joe Mixon & Samaje Perine; WR Dede Westbrook; Auburn: K. Pettway 1123 yards rushing

Sully Says: Oklahoma wins and covers

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Rose Bowl Game Presented by Nortwestern Mutual

Bowl History: The Rose Bowl Game is an annual American college football bowl game usually played on January 1 New Years Day at the Rose Bowl stadium in Pasadena, California. When New Year’s Day falls on a Sunday, the game is played on Monday, January 2 (15 times now). The Rose Bowl is nicknamed “The Granddaddy of Them All” because it is the oldest bowl game. It was first played in 1902, and has been played annually since 1916. Since 1945, it has been the highest attended college football bowl game.[3] It is a part of the Pasaden’s Tournament of RoseAssociation’s “America’s New Year Celebration,” which also includes the historic Rose Parade.

Beginning with the 2015 game, the official name for sponsorship reasons is the “Rose Bowl Game presented by Noprthwestern Mutual”. Viziowas the previous sponsor from 2012; prior sponsors included AT&T, Sony, and Citi. In 2015, the game was also officially known as the “College Football Playoff semifinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Northwestern Mutual.”

The Rose Bowl Game has traditionally hosted the conference champions from the Big Ten and PAC-12 conferences (or their predecessors), but due to its past and present membership in two consortiums that seek to determine a national championship in the FBS, in 2002, the Rose Bowl began to infrequently deviate from its traditional match-up in order to facilitate championship games. In 2002 and 2006 (2001 and 2005 football seasons), under the Bowl Championship Series system, the Rose Bowl was designated as its championship game, and hosted the top two teams determined by the BCS system. Beginning in 2015, the Rose Bowl has been part of the Coillege Football Playoff system and hosts one of its semi-final games every three years. During non-Playoff years, the Rose Bowl reverts to a Pac-12/Big Ten matchup.

Teams: Penn State 11-2 (B-10) USC 9-3 (P-12)

Bowl Location: Pasadena, California

Day, Date & Time: Monday, January 2, 2017, 4:00 p.m. CST

Network: ESPN

Best Win(s): Penn State beat Ohio State, USC beat Washington

Worst Losses: Penn State lost to Pitt, SC lost to Alabama, 52-6

Common Opponents: None

Vegas Hotsheets Favorite: SC -6.5

Offensive Team Data: USC ; Total Yards,  468 YPG; Passing Yards,  262 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  207 YPG; Scoring Average,  33 PPG, Turnovers,  1.58 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 47.2%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 76% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 65%

Offensive Team Data: PSU ; Total Yards,  430 YPG; Passing Yards, 261 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 169 YPG; Scoring Average  37 PPG, Turnovers,  1.31 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 32.1%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 85% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 52%

Defensive Team Data: USC ; Total Yards,  359 YPG; Passing Yards,  225 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  134 YPG; Scoring Average,  22 PPG, Turnovers,  1.42 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 35.2%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 84% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 64%

Defensive Team Data: PSU ; Total Yards,  352 YPG; Passing Yards,  198 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  154 YPG; Scoring Average,  23 PPG, Turnovers,  1.54 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 37.3%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 88% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 57%

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take Arizona’s total yards on offense, add it to what Nevada gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Nevada’s total offense, add it to what Arizona gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards Advantage: USC 410 to 394.5

Passing Yards Advantage: PSU 243 to 230

Rushing Yard Advantage: USC 180.5 to 151.5

Scoring Advantage: PSU 29.5 to 28

Turnovers Advantage: PSU 1.365 to 1.56

3rd Down Conversions Advantage: USC 42.25 to 33.65

Red Zone All Scores Advantage: PSU 84.5 to 82

Red Zone TD’s Only Advantage: USC 61 to 58

The Game Simulator Says:  Statistically USC 4, PSU 4, Site thinks PSU wins outright 30-28

Individuals to Watch: PSU QB Trace McSorley  & RB Saquan Barkley; USC QB Sam Darnold, WR JuJu Smith, & RB Ronald Jones

Sully Says: USC wins, but does not  cover

Posted in #1 Uncategorized |

Outback Bowl

Bowl History: The bowl was established in 1986 as the Hall of Fame Bowl (1986-94) renamed in 1995 through 2013 to the Outback Bowl. The first game was played on December 23,1986, Boston College beat Georgia, 27-24. Last year’s game featured Tennessee & Northwestern, a game won by the Volunteers, 45-6! The Bowl conference tie-ins are the SEC & the Big Ten.  The Outback Bowl is played on New Year’s Day, unless January 1 falls on a Sunday, in which case it is moved to the following Monday. It is usually the first game to start on a date which is traditionally full of college bowl games, and has kicked off as early as 11 A.M. ESPN has had television rights to the game since 1993. Under an extension of those rights in 2010, ESPN now broadcasts the game on either ABC, ESPN, or ESPN2, in conjunction with the Citrus Bowl and the Gator Bowl. The contract ran through 2014 season. Between 1988 and 1992, the bowl aired on NBC! The bowl payout is $7,200,000.00

Teams: Iowa 8-4 (B-10) vs Florida 7-5 (SEC)

Bowl Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tempa Florida

Day, Date & Time: Monday, January 2,2017, 12:00 p.m CST

Network: ESPN

Best Win(s): Iowa beat Nebraska, 40-10 (9-4 B-10); Florida beat LSU 16-10 (8-4 SEC)

Worst Losses: Iowa lost to North Dakota State 23-21, an FCS Team out of the Missouri Valley Football Conference; Florida lost to Arkansas, 31-10 (7-6 SEC)

Common Opponents: None!

Vegas Hotsheets Favorite: Florida -2

Offensive Team Data: Florida ; Total Yards,  350 YPG; Passing Yards,  220 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  130 YPG; Scoring Average,  23 PPG, Turnovers,  1.75 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 41.8%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 71% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 50%

Offensive Team Data: Iowa ; Total Yards,  333 YPG; Passing Yards, 161 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 172 YPG; Scoring Average  27 PPG, Turnovers,  0.75 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 3.33%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 92% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 71%

Defensive Team Data: Florida ; Total Yards,  298 YPG; Passing Yards,  156 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  142 YPG; Scoring Average,  17 PPG, Turnovers,  1.75 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 35.3%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 69% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 45%

Defensive Team Data: Iowa ; Total Yards,   353 YPG; Passing Yards,   200 YPG;  Rushing Yards,   153 YPG; Scoring Average,   18 PPG, Turnovers,   1.25 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 34.8%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 72% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 50%

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take Arizona’s total yards on offense, add it to what Nevada gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Nevada’s total offense, add it to what Arizona gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards Advantage: Florida 351.5 to 315.5

Passing Yards Advantage: Florida 210 to 158.5

Rushing Yard Advantage: Iowa 157 to 141.05

Scoring Advantage: Iowa 22 tp 20.5

Turnovers Advantage: Iowa 1.25 to 1.5

3rd Down Conversions Advantage: Florida 38.3 to 34.3

Red Zone All Scores Advantage: Iowa 80.5 to 71.5

Red Zone TD’s Only Advantage: Iowa 58 to 50

The Game Simulator Says: Iowa 5, Florida 3, Site thinks it Iowa outright, 22-21, take Iowa and the 2 points!

Individuals to Watch: The QB’s for both teams our your focus, neither of the three has been very good this year! Who will have the better day? Iowa’s CJ Beathard or Florida’s Auston Appleby (A Purdue transfer) or Luke Del Rio (coming back after a shoulder injury)

Sully Says: Florida wins and covers the 2 points

Posted in #1 Uncategorized |

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic

Bowl History: The Cotton Bowl was first played in 1937 and has been played annually since its inaugural year! The Bowl was once one of the four major bowls (Sugar, Orange & Rose) during the BCS Era it devolved into second tier bowl which selects its teams after the then BCS Bowls (Fiesta, Orange, Sugar, Rose & the BSC National Championship) teams have been placed!  It regained its former prominance when the CFP was established as one ot the New Years Day Six (Rose, Sugar, Orange, Fiesta & Peach). Two of these six bowls, house the CFP Semi Finals every 3rd year! Between 1937 and 2009, the game was played at its namesake stadium in Dallas; in 2010, it moved to Cowboy Stadiumin nearby Arlington. Historically, the game hosted the champion of the Southwest Conference (SWC) against a team invited from elsewhere in the country, frequently a major independent or a runner-up from the Southeastern Conference (SEC). Following the dissolution of the SWC in 1996, the game hosted a runner-up from theBig Twelve Conference (B-12), from 1999 to 2014 against a team from SEC. The Cotton Bowl Classic now served as one of six bowls in the College Football Playoff (CFP) since the 2014 season; it hosted the national semifinal following the 2015 season and will do so again following the 2018 season. In 2016, it will host #8 Wisconsin (10-3) and #15 Western Michigan University (13-0). The Cotton Bowl payout is $7,250,000.00

Teams: Wisconsin 10-3 (B-10) vs Western Michigan 13-0 (MAC)

Bowl Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas

Day, Date & Time: Monday, January 2, 2017, 12:00 p.m. CST

Network: ESPN

Best Win(s): Wisconsin beat LSU, 16-14, (8-4 SEC). Iowa, 17-9 (8-4 B-10) & Nebraska, 23-17 OT (9-4 B-10); Western Michigan beat Northwestern 7-6 (B-10)

Worst Losses:  Western Michigan did not lose a game in 2016 regular season, UW’s loss to Penn State, 38-31, in B-10 Championship

Common Opponents: Northwestern: Badgers won 21-7, while the Broncos won 22-21

Vegas Hotsheets Favorite: Wisconsin -6.5

Offensive Team Data: Wisconsin ; Total Yards, 384  YPG; Passing Yards, 179 YPG ;  Rushing Yards, 205 YPG; Scoring Average,  29 PPG, Turnovers,  1.23 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 43%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 84% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 64%

Offensive Team Data: Western Michigan ; Total Yards,  497 YPG; Passing Yards, 260 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 237 YPG; Scoring Average  44 PPG, Turnovers,  0.54 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 54.2%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 94% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 77%

Defensive Team Data:Wisconsin ; Total Yards,  303 YPG; Passing Yards,  206 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  97 YPG; Scoring Average,  15 PPG, Turnovers,  2.08 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 26.8%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 75% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 41%

Defensive Team Data: Western Michigan ; Total Yards,  353 YPG; Passing Yards,  202 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  151 YPG; Scoring Average, 19 PPG, Turnovers,  2 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 38%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 88% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 63%

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take Arizona’s total yards on offense, add it to what Nevada gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Nevada’s total offense, add it to what Arizona gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards Advantage: Western Michigan 400 to 368.5

Passing Yards Advantage: Western Michigan 233 to 190.5

Rushing Yard Advantage: Wisconsin 178 to 167

Scoring Advantage: Western Michigan 29.5 to 24

Turnovers Advantage: Western Michigan 1.31 to 1.615

3rd Down Conversions Advantage:  Push  @ 40.5,

Red Zone All Scores Advantage: Push @ 86%

Red Zone TD’s Only Advantage: Wisconsin 63.5 to 59

The Game Simulator Says: Western Michigan 4, Wisconsin 2, Push 2; Site thinks Western Michigan wins outright, 30-24

Individuals to Watch: WM QB Zack Terrell 32/3 TD to INT Ratio, 3376 Passing Yards, WR Corey Davis, 91 receptions, 1427 total yards, 15.7 YPC, & 10TD’s  UW: RB Corey Clement, 4.5 YPA, 1304 yards rushing for 2016 season, & 14 TD’s

Sully Says: Not so fast my friend Badgers win but do not cover, Take WM and the points!

Posted in #1 Uncategorized |

Conference Records through the 29th of December

Here are how the Conferences records in the second season, through December, 29, 2016! Order based on winning percentage! The ACC and the Sun Belt are leading the way in the Bowl Season thus far. The “Big Guns” are playing in the next 48 hours, should be interesting to see how this shakes out!

  1. Independents: 2-0
  2. Atlantic Coastal Conference: 5-1
  3. Sun Belt Conference: 4-1
  4. Big-12: 3-1
  5. Conference USA: 4-3
  6. Mountain West Conference: 3-3
  7. Big Ten: 2-2
  8. Pacific Athletic Conference 12: 1-2
  9. American Athletic Conference: 2-5
  10. Southeastern Conference: 1-4
  11. Mid-American Conference: o-4

Today’s Games 12/30/16:

  • Georgia 7-5 (SEC) vs TCU 6-6 (B-12)
  • Stanford 9-3 (P-12) vs UNC 8-4 (ACC)
  • Nebraska 9-3 (B-12) vs Tennessee 8-4 (SEC)
  • South Alabama 6-6 (SBC) vs Air Force 9-3 (MWC)
  • Michigan 10-2 (B-10) vs FSU 9-3 (ACC)

How we got here! Order here is Alphabetical

American Athletic Conference (AAC) 2-5: Houston lost to San Diego State (MWC) 34-10; Central Florida lost to Arkansas State (SBC), 31-13; Tulsa blasted Central Michigan (MAC), 55-10; Memphis was kicked around by Western Kentucky, (C-USA), 51-31; Navy fell to Louisisana Tech (C-USA) 48-45; Temple lost to Wake Forest (ACC), 34-26! South Florida beat South Carolina (SEC), 46-39

Atlantic Coastal Conference (ACC) 5-1: Boston College beat Maryland (B-10), 36-30; NC State popped Vanderbelt (SEC), 41-17; Wake Forest beat Temple (AAC), 34-26; Pitt lost to Northwestern (B-10) 31-24; Miami beat West Virginia, 31-14, Virginia Tech beat Arkansas (SEC), 35-24

Big-12 (B-12) 3-1: Baylor slapped Boise State (MWC) around the field, 31-12; West Virginia lost to Miami, 31-14; Kansas State beat Texas A&M, 33-28; Oklahoma State hammered Colorado (P-12), 38-8

Big Ten (B-10) 2-2: Maryland lost to Boston College (ACC), 36-30; Minnesota beat Washington State (P-12), 17-12; Northwestern beat Pitt (ACC), 31-24; Indiana lost to Utah, 26-24

Conference USA (C-USA) 4-3: University of Texas San Antonio (UTSA) lost to New Mexico (MWC), 23-20; Southern Miss beat Louisiana Lafayette (SBC), 28-21; Western Kentucky busted up Memphis (AAC), 51-31; Old Dominion stopped Eastern Michigan, (MAC); 24-20; Louisiana Tech out-lasted Navy (AAC), 48-45; Middle Tennessee lost to Hawaii (MWC), 52-35; North Texas lost to Army (IND), 38-31

Independents (IND) 2-0: BYU held off Wyoming (MWC), 24-21; Army beat North Texas (C-USA), 38-31;

Mid-American Conference (MAC) 0-4: Toledo lost to Appalachian State, 31-28, Central Michigan was destroyed by Tulsa (AAC), 55-10; Eastern Michigan lost to Old Dominion (C-USA), 24-20; Miami OH fell short to Mississippi State (SEC), 17-16

Mountain West Conference (MWC) 3-3: New Mexico beat UTSA (C-USA), 23-20, San Diego State hammered Houston (AAC), 34-10, Wyoming fell to BYU (IND), 24-21; Colorado State lost to Idaho (SBC), 61-50; Hawaii held off Middle Tennessee (C-USA), 52-35; Boise State lost to Baylor (B-12), 31-12

Pacific Athletic Conference 12 (PAC-12) 1-2: Washington State lost to Minnesota (B-10), 17-12; Utah beat Indiana, 26-24; Colorado lost to Oklahoma State (B-12), 38-8

Sun Belt Conference (SBC) 4-1: Appalachian State survived Toledo (MAC), 31-28; Arkansas State whipped Central Florida (AAC), 31-13, Louisiana Lafayette lost to Southern Southern Miss (C-USA), 28-21; Idaho outscored Colorado State (MWC), 61-50; Troy beat Ohio (MAC), 28-23

Southeastern Conference (SEC) 1-4: Vanderbilt was thumped by NC State (ACC), 41-17; Mississippi State escaped Miami OH (MAC), 17-16; Texas A&M lost to Kansas State, 33-28; South Carolina lost to South Florida (SBC), 46-39; Arkansas lost to Virginia Tech (ACC), 35-24

Posted in #1 Uncategorized |

December 30, 2016

Today’s Games Friday December 30, 2016

 

  • For more detailed info see the Bowl write up on the Blog 
  • 5 Games today!
  • GS (Game Simulator) currently 18-6-1, 72% vs the Spread
  • Sully is 11-14-2, 41% vs the Spread, I may start calling the Simulator the Terminator, given the tail whippin’ I’m getting!

Autozone Liberty Bowl

Result: TBD, Georgia 7-5 vs TCU 6-6

Opening Line: TCU -1.5

GS Says: TCU wins 28-26, and covers the 1.5

Sully Says: Take Georgia and the points

Hyundai Sun Bowl

Result: TBD, Stanford 9-3 vs North Carolina 8-4

Opening Line: UNC -1

GS Says: Stanford wins & covers this game, 31-23

Sully Says: Stanford wins and covers

Nova Homes Loans Arizona Bowl

Result: TBD, South Alabama 6-6 vs Air Force 9-3

Opening Line: Air Force -15

GS Says: AF wins 30-27, but does not cover, Take USA and the points

Sully Says: Air Force wins but does not cover the 15!

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl

Result: TBD, Nebraska 9-3 Tennessee 8-4

Opening Line: Tennessee -3

GS Says: Tennessee wins 30-28, does not cover the 3 points, its Nebraska

Sully Says: Tennessee wins and covers

Capital One Orange Bowl

Result: TBD, Michigan 10-2 Florida State 9-3

Opening Line: Michigan -6.5

GS Says: UM wins 33-24 and covers the 6.5

Sully Says: Michigan wins and covers

For more details, please go to the Bowl Game Review on the Blog!

Enjoy the Games!

Posted in #1 Uncategorized |

Sully vs Game Simulator vs the Spread 12/29/16

The Game Simulator went 2-0 & a Draw vs the spread on the 29th, while Sully went 1-2 vs “the Wise Guys”! Current Standings: The Machine is 18-6-1 with 2 game being called draws, while Sully is 11-14-2

Here is what happened yesterday!

December 29, 2016

 

Birmingham Bowl

Result: South Florida 46 South Carolina 39

Opening Line: South Florida -11

Game Simulator (GS) Says: USF wins but does not cover the 11 Winner; 17-6-1

Sully Says: Take South Carolina and the 11 points Winner; 11-12-2

Belk Bowl

Result: Virginia Tech 35-24

Opening Line: Va Tech -6

Game Simulator (GS) Says: V-Tech wins outright, 33-27, the 6 points it is giving Arkansas result in a a 33-33 tie, Draw 17-6-1

Sully Says: Take Arkansas and the 6 points, Loser 11-13-2

ValeroAloma Bowl

Result: Oklahoma State 38 Colorado 8

Opening Line: Colorado -2

Game Simulator (GS) Says: Take OSU and the 2 points, Wimmer 18-6-1

Sully Says: Take Colorado and give Oklahoma State the 2, Loser,11-14-2

Posted in #1 Uncategorized |