Sully's Big Blog! Commentary on College Football, Weekly Games, And Strange Statistics!

A comparison between 2017 Final Poll & Where ARR Predicted

Now that we have reviewed Power Five Recruiting and taken a look at each of the P5 Conference, let’s take a look at the final top 25 for 2017 and where the ARR (Average Recruiting Rank (based on four years of data, 2015 through 2018, with the info coming from three sites, ESPN, 247 Sports, & Rivals) predicted where they should finish! Final Top 25 Rankings will be on the left and where their ARR speculated they should finish, will be on the right! If a team’s finish was 1 to 3 above of below their ARR predicted place finish (the number on the right noted before the team) they were identified as … slightly … above or below, 4 to 7 they were characterized as being overachievers or underachievers, 8 to 15 … Significantly … above or below, and 16 + I just made up stuff … Light speed Achievers and such! This is all for fun … Enjoy! Up Next: P5 vs P5 in the 2018 regular season!

AP Top 25  /   Average Recruiting Rank Predictor

  1. Alabama / 1. Alabama’s ARR 2.5 (According to Hoyle 1=1)
  2. Georgia / 3. Georgia’s ARR 4.5 (Slightly overachieved +1)
  3. Oklahoma / 11. OU’s ARR 12.7 (Significantly overachieved +8)
  4. Clemson / 6. Clemson’s ARR 6.8 (Slightly Overachieved +2)
  5. Ohio State / 2. OSU’s  ARR 3.9 (Slightly underachieved -3)
  6. UCF / NA. AAC Team (Group of 5 TBD) Not Assessed in P5 Rankings
  7. Wisconsin / 36. UW’s ARR 38.7 (Gone-Plaid Speed achievers +29)
  8. Penn State / 12. PSU’s ARR 13.4 (Overachieved +4)
  9. TCU / 29. TCU’s ARR 29.9 (Light Speed overachievers +20)
  10. Auburn / 8. Auburn’s ARR 9.25 (Slightly underachieved -2)
  11. Notre Dame / 10. ND’s ARR 12.5 (Slightly underachieved -1)
  12. USC  / 5. USC’s ARR 6.5 (Significantly Underachieved -7)
  13. Miami / 17. Miami’s ARR 16.2 (Overachieved +4)
  14. Ok St./35. Ok St’s ARR 38.1 (Ludicrous Speed overachieves +21)
  15. MSU / 26. MSU’s ARR  27.0 (Significantly overachieved +11)
  16. Washington / 22. UW’s ARR 24.0 (Significantly overachieved +8)
  17. Northwestern / 52. NW’s ARR 52.6 (left the Galaxy achievers +35)
  18.  LSU / 7. LSU’s ARR 8.5 (Significantly underachieved -11)
  19.  Miss State / 24. MSU’s ARR 24.9 (Overachieved +5)
  20.  Standard / 25. Stanford’s ARR 25.4 (Overachieved +5)
  21. USF / NA. AAC Team (Group of 5 TBD) Not Assessed in P5 Rankings
  22. Boise/NA. MWC Team (G5 TBD) Not Assessed in P5 Rankings
  23. NC State / 39. NC State’s ARR 39 (Light Speed Overachievers +16)
  24. Virginia Tech / 28. Virginia Tech’s ARR 29.6 (Overachievers +4)
  25. Memphis / NA. AAC Team (G5 TBD) Not Assessed in P5 Rankings
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ACC Recruiting & Past and Projected Division Standings

As you review these thoughts, remember this is based on how a program recruits and really nothing else, so my suggestion is … don’t wager the retirement on these numbers this fall! That said, I do believe that, Jimmy’s & Joe’s, with other elements (returning starters, coaching, schedule, injuries, & et alii / et cetera) being, relatively equal, can and often do, overcome other factors.

Ok, let’s take a look at how the ACC recruits, last year’s divisional standings, and what the rosters suggests will happen this year! The composite is a four year average (2015 / 2018) based on the review of three recruiting sites, ESPN, 247 Sports, & Rivals. While it should be noted, that the 2017 standings had the 2014 recruiting class in the mix and the 2018 will have (for the most part) lost that class, but will have added the 2018 class. That said, their ARR (Average Recruiting Rank) will still be relatively close even with 2014 factored out of the ARR & 2018 factored into the ARR! So one could speculate that the 2018 ARR would be an indicator of how a team should have preformed in 2017!

2017 Standing                            2018 Projections/ARR Composite 

Atlantic Division

  1. Clemson 7-1                      1. Florida State 5.1
  2. NC State 6-2                      2. Clemson 9.2
  3. Louisville 4-4                      3. Louisville 32.1
  4. Wake Forest 4-4                  4. NC State 40.2
  5. Boston College 4-4              5. Syracuse 57.0
  6. Florida State 3-5                 6. Wake Forest 58.5
  7. Syracuse 2-6                       7. Boston College 65.8
  • Florida State is the best recruiting program in the ACC with an ARR of 5.1! They are the 4th best in the nation, behind only, Bama, Ohio State, & Georgia! Their QB, Deondre Francois, was injured in their 1st game of the 2017 season against Alabama, a 24-7 loss; FSU never really recovered! Francois is back and let’s see!
  • Clemson has had a tremendous run the past three years, surpassed by only Alabama! The Tigers have played their way into the last 3 CFP, losing in the semi’s in 2017, 24-6 to the Tide, winning the championship in 2016, 35-31 vs Alabama & losing the championship game in 2015, 45-40 to Bama! Impressive!
  • Louisville’s ARR is 32.1 which suggest that 31 teams have a better roster across P5 conferences. They were somewhat of an enigma in 2017, beating FSU, 31-18, but losing to BC, 45-42 & WF, 42-32!
  • Syracuse with an ARR of 57.0 beat Clemson, 27-24 in 2017. They knocked out QB, Kelly Bryant and Clemson’s roster did not respond as their ARR #, 9.2, would indicate. The Orange had a perfectly upside down season. They lost to WF, 64-43 & BC42-14, two teams they recruit better than, yet found a way against Clemson and Pitt, 27-24, an identical score to their Clemson win!
  • Wake Forest overachieved in 2017, beating Louisville, 42-32 & NC State, 30-24. Both of these teams recruit better than WF! Their ARR numbers suggest the Demon Deacons should finish 6th in the Atlantic, in front of only BC!
  • Boston College hammered FSU, 35-3, outlscored Louisville, 45-42, & beat Syracuse, 42-14 & Virginia, 41-10. All four of these programs recruit better than the Eagles, who have an ARR of 65.8, better than only one P5 team, Kansas’ 67.8!

            2017 Standing             2018 Projections/ARR Composite

Coastal Division

  1. Miami 7-1                       1. Miami 16.2
  2. Virginia Tech 5-3             2. North Carolina 27.9
  3. Georgia Tech 4-4             3. Virginia Tech 29.6
  4. Pittsburgh 3-5                 4. Pittsburgh 41.1
  5. Virginia 3-5                     5. Duke 47.2
  6. Duke 3-5                        6. Georgia Tech 49.5
  7. North Carolina 1-7           7. Virginia 56.1
  • Miami breaks away in 2017, usually the Coastal Division is a log jam with 3 teams at 5-3 and a clubs or two at 4-4, not in 2017! Miami separated itself from the pact, going 7-1 in the Coastal, losing to only Pitt, 24-14 in their season finale!
  • Virginia Tech was on a collision course with Miami to win the Coastal Division, but the ARR’s kicked in, the U @ 16.2 to the Hokies 29.6! The result in early November was a season changing loss for Va Tech, Miami 28 – VT 14!
  • Georgia Tech beat Pitt, 35-17, UNC, 33-7, & Va Tech, 28-22, 3 teams their ARR says they should not have beaten! The only team that they should have handled, that they did not, was Virginia, a 40-36 loss!
  • Pitt gave Miami its only divisional loss, 24-14, this was also the Canes, (11-0 at kick-off) 1st lost of the season. That said, Pitt lost to Syracuse, 27-24 & GT, 35-17, two teams their ARR # says they should have beat!
  • Virginia recruits better than 3 teams in the ACC, Syracuse, WF, & BC. the issue is all three of those teams are in the Atlantic Division! They  were scheduled to play a cross over game Boston College, however the Cavaliers got smacked by BC, 41-10 and they did not play Wake or Syracuse! In divisional play, they did beat UNC, 20-14, GT, 40-36, & Duke, 28-21, three teams who have a higher ARR!
  • Duke Duke is the 5th best recruiting program in the ACC Coastal and tied for 5th place in the division!
  • North Carolina in the 2017 season as indicated by their ARR # should have beaten, Duke, lost 27-17, GT, lost 33-7, Virginia, lost 20-14, VT, lost 59-7, & NC State, lost 33-21. They did manage to to beat Pitt, 34-31 for their only ACC and Coastal win in 2017!
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P-12 Recruiting & 2018 Projected Conference Standings

As you move through these thoughts and projections, … remember, … they are solely based on recruiting, factors like returning starters, coaching, home & away games, and other elements that impact a team’s season are put aside. For our purposes here, we are drawing our conclusions from the team’s ARR (Average Recruiting Rank)! The ARR was determined by averaging each teams recruiting rank on three different sites (ESPN, 247 Sports, & Rivals) and over a four year (2015 -2018) time frame!

Please note, I will often interchange the terms, roster, ARR, and recruiting and while one could infer distinctions among these terms, the intent here is to imply they carry the same meaning! Let’s take a look at the P-12, through recruiting only, both internally and how they compare to other Power 5 (P5) conferences. The P5 is made up of the following  conferences; ACC (14 Teams), B-10 (14 teams), B-12 (10 teams), SEC (14 teams), and the P-12 (12 teams)! We also include Notre Dame and BYU as P5 teams in this post. Meaning we have 66 teams, not 64 , in our count. That said, an ARR # is the average place finish out of the 66 P5 teams assessed in this post. So when reviewing the list below, one sees that Oregon is the best recruiting program in the North Division of the P-12 and the 20th best in the country!

North Division

P-12 final Standings 2017      /     Recruiting projected Standings for 2018

 P-12 Record in 2017                                P-12 ARR 2015 – 2018

  1. Stanford 7-2                                     1) Oregon ARR 20.0
  2. Washington 7-2                                 2) Washington ARR 24.0
  3. Washington State 6-3                        3) Stanford ARR 25.4
  4. Oregon 4-5                                       4) California ARR 46.4
  5. California 2-7                                    5) Washington St. ARR 49.3
  6. Oregon State 0-9                               6) Oregon State ARR 57.4

 

  • Stanford essentially overachieved in 2017, as their recruiting numbers suggest a 3rd place finish in 2018, with a 3-2 mark vs Divisional foes, not 1st place in the North Division the Cardinal achieved in 2017. The P-12 plays 9 conference games same as the B-12 & B-10, yet these conferences have a unique feel. The P-12 has 6 teams in their north/south divisions respectively, so they play 5 divisional games and 4 cross-over games; the B-10 has 7 teams in east/west divisions respectively and play only 3 Cross over games, and the B-12, with 10 total teams (no divisions), play a round robin schedule, meaning each team plays the other nine teams in the league. Stanford lost their Bowl Game to TCU, 39-37, a team that they have a better ARR then, the Cardinal ARR is 25.5 while TCU is 29.9!
  • Washington is the 2nd best recruiting program in the P-12’s North Division, with an ARR @ 24.0. Last year, the Huskies had an identical record to Stanford (7-2) but lost their head to head battle with Cardinal, 30-22, so were left out of the P-12 Championship Game! Washington lost the Fiesta Bowl to Penn State, 35-28, a team that has a better ARR that the Huskies; PSU 13.4 / Washington 24.0!
  • Washington State, by their ARR @ 49.3, equals 1-4 in divisional play and then depending on cross over games, the Cougars could be in for a long season! Yet they finished at 6-3 in 2017; surprising, since the Cougars only recruit better then 2 P-12 teams, Oregon State, in their division and Colorado, out of the South Division. The good news is they do draw Colorado in 2018 and OSU is an annual occurrence. That said, those two encounters will be the only P-12 games where WSU will have the better roster (vs Colorado & Oregon State). The remaining 7 conference opponents will have better rosters! WSU took on Michigan State (MSU ARR 27.0 to WSU 49.3) in the Holiday Bowl, a 42-17 loss to the Spartans!
  • Oregon has the best roster in the P-12 North Division and based on their ARR talent & cross over games, should win the division. Only 2 programs in the South Division (P-12) recruit better than the Ducks, USC with an ARR of 5.5 and UCLA at 15.8. Oregon only draws UCLA out of the south in 2018. That means when considering the respective rosters of their opponents, that the Ducks will be favored in 8 of their 9 contest in conference play! That, coupled with their non-conference schedule being somewhat of a joke ( Bowling Green, Portland State, & San Jose State} the Ducks should go 11-1 in the regular season and play for the P-12 Championship (vs USC) and have a punchers shot at the CFP! In 2017, Oregon lost the Las Vegas Bowl to Boise State, 38-28, a Group of 5 (G5) team that I will assign an ARR # in the next couple of weeks. That said, their is no doubt that Oregon will have a better (lower) ARR number than Boise!
  • California has the 4th best roster in the Noth Division of the P-12! Cal was pretty much according to Hoyle in 2017, they should have beaten Washington State, they did, 37-3 and Oregon State, they did, 37-23. They should have lost to Oregon, 45-24, Washington, 38-7, & Stanford, 17 14 … and they did! Their cross over games were against USC, 30-20, UCLA 30-27, Arizona, 45-44, their ARR number predicted these games would all be losses and that is exactly what happened! The only game that was outside the predictor was the Colorado game, the Golden Bears should have won that one, they did not, a 44-28 loss!
  • Oregon State is a mess, they are last in the P-12 in recruiting and recruit better than only 6 P5 programs nationally, Wake Forest (ACC), Purdue (B-10), Kansas State (B-12), BYU (IND), Boston College (ACC), & Kansas (B-12). From an ARR perspective, they were perfect in 2017, losing to all 9 P-12 teams and to 2 FBS opponents, Minnesota, 48-14 &  Colorado State, 58-27. The only game they did win was against a FCS team, Portland State (Big Sky Conference), 35-32, a game their roster predicted they would win! So … a perfect mess!

South Division

P-12 final Standings 2017      /     Recruiting projected Standings for 2018

 P-12 Record in 2017                             P-12 ARR 2015 – 2018

  1. USC 8-1                                        1) USC ARR 5.5
  2. Arizona State 6-3                           2) UCLA ARR 15.8
  3. Arizona 5-4                                   3) Utah ARR 39.1
  4. UCLA 4-5                                      4) Arizona State ARR 39.2
  5. Utah 3-6                                       5) Arizona ARR 46.2
  6. Colorado 0-9                                 6) Colorado ARR 56.0
  • Southern Cal did not play a team in 2017 regular season that their current ARR was not better than and with the lone exception of Notre Dame (yet still better than the Irish), the Trojan ARR was significantly superior to all of their other opponents. They lost one P-12 game in 2017, to Washington State, 30-27, that simply put, their roster should not have allowed. Injuries to their OL were a factor, but their superior ARR # should have carried the day. They won the South Division as their recruiting suggested they would and then beat the North Division champ, Stanford, 31-28, to claim the P-12 Championship. Their lost  to ND, 49-14, was to much to overcome, the CFP Committee seemed unable to get past that lop-sided performance and as a result, SC did not make the CFP in 2017. Instead, they were invited to the Cotton Bowl, where, they again, performed according Hoyle, losing to Ohio State (ARR 3.9), 24-7.  OSU was in a similar situation to SC, failing to overcome a blowout lost to Iowa, 55-24, which like USC’s one-sided loss to the Irish, resulted in the committee passing on the Bucks! Neither the P-12 or B-10 champ made the CFP!
  • UCLA, as measured by their roster, should have gone 8-1 in 2017, not 4-5, which in no small part, explains why their coach, Jim Mora, was fired!  One could say, I wouldn’t, but one could say that Mora recruited himself out of his job! The Bruins played 2 teams with a better ARR than themselves, Texas A&M (ARR 14.3 to UCLA 15.8), The Bruins won that game, 45-44 (2017’s best comeback?) and USC, a 28-23 loss! UCLA then lost to Kansas State, in the Cactus Bowl, 35-17, a team from the B-12, that has an ARR score of 63.8 compared to UCLA 15.8. Enter Chip Kelly!
  • Utah underachieved in 2017, but not by much, as they had roster that is/was inferior to USC, UCLA, Oregon, Washington, & Stanford, they were only able to overcome ARR #’s once, vs UCLA, a 48-17 win!  So by the numbers, they should have gone 4-5 in 17 not 3-6. The Utes win over UCLA was countered and then some, by losing to WSU, 33-25 & ASU, 30-10, games that their ARR says they should have won! Utah won the Heart of Dallas Bowl over West Virginia, 30-14, the P-12’s only win in the Bowl season. This was a ‘pick em’ game as Utah ARR 39.1 while WV’s is 40.4!
  • Arizona State? Life can be a funny old dog, just ask, Todd Graham, who was 46-32 @ ASU in 6 seasons, 5 bowls (2-3 in bowl games) and exceeded expectations according to ARR in 2017, by going 6-3, finishing 2nd in the South Division, and his Sun Devils beat Washington, 13-7 and Oregon, 37-35!  Graham was fired! Hard to figure … Enter Herm Edwards! This is going to be, I believe, one of, if not the #1 most scrutinized coaching changes of the 2018 season!
  • Arizona should have finished have finished 3-6, if one were to determine games just by roster, not the 5-4 record they earned in 2017! Rich Rodriguez was fired at the season’s end for on and off the field concerns. Arizona beat UCLA, 47-30 and Cal, 45-44, one program that recruits significantly better than the Wildcats and California, whose ARR is almost identical, Arizona @ 46.2 while Cal’s is 46.4! Enter, Kevin Sumlin, the former coach at Texas A&M!
  • Colorado’s Mike MacIntyre’s seat is getting hot, the Buffs were 2-7 last year  and they are the ranked 9 of 10 in P-12 recruiting, with an ARR of 56.0. They did slightly overachieve by going 2-7 as their roster suggested they should be 1-8, having ARR # better than only Oregon State in the P-12. The Buffs did not win a south division game, they beat Oregon State , 36-33 and upset California, 44-28. Both of these teams are from the north division.

 

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B-12 Recruiting & Predictinng

0If you like offense this is where you need to set the TV dial & VCR recorder. In the B-12. eight of the ten teams scored between 380 (31.6 PPG) to 632 (52.6 PPG) points last season, the remaining 2 teams, Baylor & Kansas, while struggling to score, had no issues allowing points, these teams gave up 952 points (39.6 PPG) in 2017 … so no D = O! Either way / any-which-way, in the B-12 it is always about offense!

The B-12 has not had divisions since their realignment in 2011 and until 2017, they had not played a championship game since 2010, when OU (South Division) beat Nebraska (North division), 23-20! The B-12 is the only Power 5 Conference where a round-robin (every team in the league plays every other team) is scheduled during the regular season and then the top two teams meet for a second time.

Let’s take a close look at B-12 recruiting and see its impact, in isolation (forget, for now, coaching, player development, returning starters, and other factors) on success on the field. Let’s take a look where B-12 teams rank over the past four years (2015 through 2018) in Average Recruiting Rank (ARR) and see where they finished in the 2017 standings and the relationship between those finishes and where the recruiting numbers predicted these teams should finish in 2018!

Conference Standings in 2017    /     Projected Standing based on ARR (listed after team)

  1. Oklahoma 8-1                                1. Texas (9)
  2. TCU 7-2                                         2. Oklahoma (11)
  3. Oklahoma State 6-3                       3. TCU (29)
  4. West Virginia 5-4                           4. Baylor (34)
  5. Texas 5-4                                      5. Oklahoma State (35)
  6. Kansas State 5-4                           6. West Virginia (41)
  7. Iowa State 5-4                              7. Texas Tech (48)
  8. Texas Tech 3-6                              8. Iowa State (55)
  9. Baylor 1-8                                     9. Kansas State (63)
  10. Kansas 0-9                                  10. Kansas (66)
  • Oklahoma slightly overachieved, the ARR states the Sooners should have finished 2nd in the B-12 behind Texas.
  • TCU finished 2nd in the B-12, losing twice to OU in 2017, regular season, 38-20 and in the B-12 Championship Game, 41-17. Please note to distance between the teams ARR OU 11 & TCU 29
  • Oklahoma State recruiting numbers suggested a 5th place finish in the B-12, yet the Cowpokes were 3rd. The ARR #’s suggested that Texas (ARR says the Horns should have won the B-12)  and Baylor, who won one game and finished 9th, should have won 6 and finished 4th!
  • West Virginia tied for 4th place, winning 5 games and sharing 4th with Texas, K-State, & Iowa State. A slight overachievement, as the ARR predicted a 4-5 record in the B-12 and a 6th place finish.
  • Texas is the #1 recruiting football team in the B-12 and one, if not, the number one underachieving program in the nation. A 4th place tie in the B-12 simply will not cut it in the Texas football community. Most preseason previews have the Longhorns 2nd to Oklahoma in the B-12 and given their respective ARR’s (Tx 9th & OU 11th) it should come to the Red River Rivalry outcome. Texas fans demand the B-12 Championship come down to the OU game and then, win it! The ARR number, say those Horn fans are right!
  • Kansas State’s Bill Synder has something in common with Budweiser … that is, the Budweiser Song … “When you Bud (in this case, when U say Bill) you’ve said it all!” The Wildcats by their ARR number should have been 1-8, not 5-4 as they were in 2017. Bill Synder … enough said!
  • Iowa State, according to their ARR status, the Cyclones should have gone 2-7 in B-12 play, not 5-4 as they did in 2017, and they certainly should not have beaten OU, 38-31 and TCU, 14-7. The challenge for Matty Campbell and his staff is how to turn these victories on the playing fields into wins in the living rooms! Jimmy’s & Joe’s over X’s & O’s
  • Texas Tech finished, 3-6, exactly as their ARR predicted, however, how they got their was not according Hoyle. They lost ISU, 31-13 & Kansas State, 42-35 in OT, by their respective ARR numbers, the Red Raiders should have won these games. That said, they beat Texas, 27-23 (probably saves Coach Kingsbury’s job) and Baylor, 38-24, two teams that should have beaten.
  • Baylor should have gone 6-3 based on their existing roster, yet, they won 1 game in 2017, beating only Kansas, 38-9, to finish 1-8 in B-12 play. Baylor’s Coach, Matty Rhule, inherited a mess, 2nd only to the Penn State disaster. A template exists for Rhule and his staff to repair the damage done in Waco! They need only look to what Bill O’Brian and James Franklin did @ PSU, in rebuilding the relationship between community and the program.
  • Kansas, like Texas Tech, played and won games as the ARR predicted, bad & one. The only team the Jayhawks beat in 2017, was SE Missouri, 38-16, an FCS program from the Ohio Valley Conference and a team that Kansas would have a better roster then, 85 scholarships in the FBS to 63 scholarship in the FCS! Kansas has the lowest ARR number of any P5 program, 66 0f 66, (remember ND & BYU are in our count) assessed by SCFP!
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By the Recruiting Numbers: who wins the Big Ten East, West and Outright

The Big Ten has 4 teams that recruit in the top 25, Ohio State 2, Penn State 12, Michigan 18, Nebraska 23, and with Michigan State just outside @ 26! That said, you have seven (Maryland is 33rd of the 66 programs assessed) B-10 programs that are in the lower half of the Power 5 recruiting wars. Wisconsin is at 36, followed by Iowa (43), Minnesota (51), Northwestern (52), Indiana (53), Rutgers (57), Illinois (58) and Purdue @ 62! It is no wonder that the NW Coach, Pat Fitzgerald, likes to say that the Northwestern football experience is developmental at its heart. They simply do not land the 4 and 5 star recruits that the SEC attracks year after year. In fact, the SEC has 10 teams in the top 25 (40%) and all but 2 teams ( Missouri at 41 and Vanderbilt @ 50) that are in the upper half, a 33 or better listing!

So let’s see what happened last year in the B-10 divisions and what the recruiting numbers predict for 2018! Remember these predictions are based on rosters, not starters!

2017 East Division Standings / What the Recruiting Numbers Foretell

  1. Ohio State 8-1 ……………………. 1. Ohio State
  2. Michigan State 7-2 ……………… 2. Penn State
  3. Penn State 7-2 ……………………. 3. Michigan
  4. Michigan 5-4 ……………………… 4. Michigan State
  5. Rutgers 3-6 ………………………… 5. Maryland
  6. Maryland 2-7 ……………………… 6. Indiana
  7. Indiana 2-7 …………………………. 7. Rutgers

Points of Interest … Remember these comments are based on recruiting only, Rosters!  …Not player development, coaching, returning starters, and other variables!

  • Ohio State did exactly what was predicted it would do based on its roster, 1st place in the East Division!
  • Michigan State, once again overachieved under Mark Dantonio, beating PSU, 27-24 and Michigan, 14-10.
  • PSU’s lost 2 close games, one to OSU, 39-38, the numbers say they should have lost and the second to MSU, 27-24, a game the Roster Wars say the should have won.
  • Michigan should have finished 7-2 in the B-10, not 5-4!  Their losses to MSU, 14-10 and Wisconsin 24-10 should not have happened, while losses to OSU and PSU were within the numbers!
  • Rutgers overachieved! What? That statement is true by the numbers, the Scarlet Knights should not have beaten Maryland, a 31-24 win, their wins over Illinois, 35-24 and Purdue, 14-12, were consistent with their respective rosters and the luck of the cross divisional draws! They should have been 2-7 not 3-6!
  • Maryland underachieved. They should have beaten, by their recruiting numbers, Wisconsin, lost 38-13, Northwestern, lost 37-21, & Rutgers, lost 24-31. Maryland, by their roster, should have been 5-4 in B-10 play … not 2-7!
  • Indiana slightly underachieved, they did exactly what their roster said they should have done, beating Illinois, 24-14 and Rutgers, 41-0. Their only miss step was @ Purdue, a 31-24 loss that their recruiting rank says they should have won!

 2017 East Division Standings / What the Recruiting Numbers Foretell

  1. Wisconsin 9-0 ……………………. 1. Nebraska
  2. Northwestern 7-2 ……………… 2. Wisconsin
  3. Iowa 4-5 …………………………… 3. Iowa
  4. Purdue 4-5 ………………………    4. Minnesota
  5. Nebraska 3-6 …………………….. 5. Northwestern
  6. Minnesota 2-7 …………………… 6. Illinois
  7. Illinois 0-9 …………………………. 7. Purdue

Points of Interest … Remember these comments are based on recruiting only, Rosters!  …Not player development, coaching, returning starters, and other variables

  • Wisconsin, per usual, overachieved, they are the 36 best recruiting program in the land, 7 best in their own conference (in the East Division of the B-10, 5 programs recruit better than the Badgers: OSU (2), PSU (12), Michigan (18), MSU (27) and Maryland (33) & in their own West Division, Nebraska recruits better @ 23) and yet Bucky was 6 points away (27-21 loss to the Bucks in the B-10 Championship Game) from a final 4 spot in the CFP! UW should have been, by their roster (recruiting rank) 6-3 (should have lost to Nebraska, won 38-17, to Michigan; won 24-10 & to Maryland; won 38-13)… not 9-0!
  • Northwestern another program that regularly overachieves. The ‘Cats’ finished 7-2 in B-10 play, their roster says they should have been 2-7! NW should have lost to Maryland, they won, 37-21; to Iowa, they won, 17-10 in OT; To MSU; they won, 39-31, in 3 OTs; to Nebraska, they won 31-24 in OT; & to Minnesota, they won, 39-0. The only teams that Northwestern played that they recruit better than, in conference play, were Illinois (won 42-7) & Purdue, (won 23-13). Impressive!
  • Iowa beat two teams in the B-10 that their Roster said they should not have beaten, OSU, 55-24, & Nebraska, 56-14 (and those scores?), and then lost to three, that their roster says the should have won, Wisconsin, 38-14; Northwestern, 17-10 in OT and Purdue, 24-15! After that, their season was according to Hoyle, beating beating Illinois & Minnesota and losing to PSU & MSU! Iowa finished with a 4-5 record, just as the recruiting predicted, yet how they got there, well, that was quite a different story!
  • Purdue, by the recruiting numbers should have finished their 2017 season at 0-9! Their 4-5 record, may have been the most unexpected result in B-10 play last year! The Boilers beat Minnesota, 31-17; Illinois, 29-10; Iowa, 24-15; & Indiana, 31-24. That said, they could have been 7-2, losing to Nebraska, 25-24, Rutgers, 14-12, & Wisconsin 17-9! What Purdue accomplished in 2017 rivaled Wisconsin achievements, when you consider where they started and how they finished!
  • Nebraska, by the recruiting numbers, should have won the West Division at 7-2, losing to only, OSU, which they  did, 56-14 & PSU, again, which they did, 56-44! The simple fact is they recruit better than very team in the West Division of the B-10! Enter Scott Frost!
  • Minnesota needs to pick up the pace on “rowing the Boat.” They beat one team that their roster said they would not beat, Nebraska, 54-21 and lost to two that that they should have beaten, Northwestern, 39-0 and Purdue, 31-17! The Gophers finished 2-7 in 2017, while their recruiting numbers said they should have finished 3-6!
  • Illinois underachieved while underachieving; their roster says they should have gone 1-8 in B-10 play and yet they managed to lose to the one team that they have a better roster than, Purdue, 29-10. The only bright spot for the Illini is they are recruiting better!

So it is OSU out of the East and the Badgers out of the West … By the Recruiting Numbers, it will Ohio State reigning as B-10 champs when the quiet returns!

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Past Results & Future Predictions based on Recruiting Rankings

In the last blog we ranked the 5 Power Five Conference and added ND & BYU into the mix. This included 66 of the 130 teams competing in the FBS in 2018. In this article, we will not be looking at player development, coaching, schedule, and other variables … rather just how the teams have recruited over the past 4 years as a predictor to where they will finish in their respective divisions & conference championship. To get reality back into the mix, we will first look at where they finished last in 2017 and compare that to what the recruiting numbers are saying about this year’s standings. We will start with the SEC West Division

2017 SEC West Division Standing / What should happen based on recruiting numbers in 2018

2017 Standings / 2018 Predictions

  1. Auburn ……. 1. Alabama
  2. Alabama …  2 LSU
  3. LSU ………… 3 Auburn
  4. Tx A&M ….  4 Tx A&M
  5. Miss St…….. 5 Ole Miss
  6. Ole Miss ….. 6 Miss St.
  7. Arkansas …. 7 Arkansas

A few points of interest

  • In 2017, Auburn and Alabama both finished 7-1 in Conference play … Since Auburn won the head to head meeting (@ Auburn, 27-14) they were awarded the division crown.
  • With Auburn being the 3rd best recruiting program in the SEC West, one could conclude that the Tigers overachieved in winning the Division.
  • LSU is the 6th best recruiting program in the nation and second best in the SEC West (3rd best overall in the SEC, behind Bama & Georgia).
  • Two factors to keep in mind, Re: LSU’s Recruiting: 1) they are only .75 better than Auburn (8.50 to 9.25) and 2) they need better performance under center … QB play has been and remains a concern for the LSU Tigers.
  • A&M finished 4th in the West, right where the recruiting data suggested they would finish.
  • While the Mississippi schools simply moved one spot from where the recruiting #’s predicted they would finish, it should be noted, the Rebels lost their coach, who was fired just as the season was about to begin … clearly a disruption.
  • Arkansas & A&M finished exactly where the numbers had them placed
  • Finally, it should be understood, that Arkansas is the 30th best recruiting program in the country (the Razorbacks recruit better than 100 teams in the FBS), yet dead last in the powerful SEC West Division.

2017 SEC East Division Standing / What should happen based on recruiting numbers in 201800

2017 Standings   /   2018 Predictions

  1. Georgia ……………1. Georgia
  2. South Carolina …2 Tennessee
  3. Kentucky …………3 Flordia
  4. Missouri …………. 4 South Carolina
  5. Florida ……………. 5 Kentucky
  6. Vanderbilt ………. 6 Missouri
  7. Tennessee ………. 7 Vanderbilt

A few points of interest

  • Georgia is on the ‘movin on up” recruiting train” since Kirby Smart arrived in Athens, the Dawgs have had the #3 (2017) and #1 (2018) recruiting classes.
  • The best way to describe Tennessee these days is … They’re a Mess! Butch Joses recruited well, yet led the team poorly both on and off the field. Jones was fired and AD, John Currie was also dismissed, after leading what can best be thought of as a “bazaar” search for a coach to replace Jones.
  • Enter Phillip Fulmer as the new AD and new HC, Jeremy Pruitt (Alabama DC the past couple of years) to get the Volunteers back to where their talent level indicates they should be performing!
  • Tennessee has the 2nd best roster, not starters, but roster, in the SEC East!
  • Florida fired Jim McElwain (now at Michigan) and hired Danny Mullen (former Mississippi State coach) Florida is the 3rd best recruiting program in the East and should be able to finish there with with their current roster and 19 starters returning.
  • South Carolina overachieved last year, they have the 4th best roster, yet finished 2nd in the East and gave the B-10 their only blemish in the Bowl Season, beating Michigan, 26-19, in the Outback Bowl.
  • Kentucky is the 35 best recruiting program in college football and the 5th best in the SEC East. Their 3rd place place finish a year ago is related to other factors not being considered here … by the recruiting numbers, the Wildcats should be 5th in the SEC East.
  • Vanderbilt is the weakest recruiting team in the SEC, that said, it should be mentioned, they are far and away the best Academic University in the SEC (Florida is very good … but not a Vandy) and therefore more difficult for the Commodores to get academically challenged students into the University. That said, the fact that they have beaten Tennessee the past 2 years (45-34 & 42-24) is outside the recruiting logic being used here, to predict future standings, by quite a bit … and then some!
  • Finally Missouri, another overachiever, finished 4th in the East, while the recruiting numbers say they have the 6th best roster in the SEC East Division.

So by the Numbers

In the West its Alabama and out of the East it will be Georgia

SEC Champion will again …  by the recruiting numbers … will be Alabama!

 

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College Football Recruiting Team Rankings 2015/2018

The rankings presented here are a composite of ESPN, 247 Sports, & Rivals. I first tracked each of the 64 Power Five (P5’s are ACC, B-10, B-12, P-12, & SEC)) teams and included 2 Independents, ND & BYU for a total of 66 teams. Then I compiled the Average Recruiting Ranking (ARR) of each Power 5 Team on a spread sheet to get a composite rank from the 3 sites (ESPN, 247, & Rivals) over a four year time-frame (2015-2018). Please find below, a ranked list of the school, conference, their ARR, & a comment or 2 about their 2017 season

That said, please note; Alabama is the best recruiting college football program, a member of the SEC’s, and their ARR (3 sites over 4 years) is 2.5. Best in the land … See where your team falls and as always check out sullyscollegefootballpage.com  for more info on the coming season!

  • Team, Conference, Composite Rank, & 2017 Result
  1. Alabama, SEC, ARR 2.5, /2nd in Division but won National Championship
  2. Ohio State, B-10, ARR 3.9 /Won Division & B-10/ won Cotton Bowl beat SC, 24-7
  3. Georgia, SEC, ARR 4.5 / Won Division & SEC, Won CFP semi 54-48 over OU in 2 OTs / lost in CFP Final to Bama 26-23 in OT
  4. Florida State, ACC, ARR 5.1 / 6-6 last year, lost QB in 1st game, struggled in 2017
  5. USC, P-12, ARR 6.5 / Won division & conference / lost Cotton Bowl to Ohio State
  6. Clemson, ACC, ARR 6.8 /Won Division & Conference / lost in CFP to Bama, 24-6
  7. LSU, SEC, ARR 8.5 /9-4 in 2017, 3rd West Division / lost to ND, 21-17, in Citrus
  8. Auburn, SEC, ARR 9.25 /Won West Division, lost SEC Championship to Georgia 28-7 & Bowl Game to Central Florida, 34-27
  9. Texas, B-12, ARR 12.4 /7-6 in 17, 6th in B-12/won Texas Bowl, 33-16, beat Mizzou
  10. Notre Dame, IND, ARR 12.5 / 10-3 in 2017 & won Citrus Bowl over LSU, 21-17
  11. Oklahoma, B-12, ARR 12.7 /Won B-12, lost CFP Semis to Georgia, 54-48, 2 OTs
  12. Penn State, B-10, ARR 13.4 / 11-2 in 17, 2nd in B-10 East, Won Fiesta Bowl, 35-28, over Washington
  13. Texas A&M, SEC, ARR 14.3 / 7-6 in 17, 4th West Division, Lost Belk Bowl to Wake Forest, 55-52
  14. Tennessee, SEC, ARR 14.7 / 4-8 in 17, 0-8 in East Division / Coach fired
  15. Florida, SEC, ARR 15.0 / 4th place in East Division, 3-5 / Coach fired
  16. UCLA, P-12, ARR 15.8 / 6-7 in 17, won Bowl Game over WV, 30-14 / Coach fired
  17. Miami, ACC, ARR 16.2 /Won Coastal Division, lost ACC Championship & Bowl
  18. Michigan, B-10, ARR 18.8 / 8-4 in 17/only B-10 team to lose bowl game in 2017
  19. Oregon, P-12, ARR 20.0 /4th in North Division, lost Bowl to Boise State, 38-28
  20. South Carolina, SEC, ARR 20.9 /9-4 in 17, 2nd in Division/beat Michigan in Bowl
  21. Ole Miss, SEC, ARR 22.5 / 6th in West Division /bowl banned in 2017 and 2018
  22. Washington, P-12, ARR 24.0/Tied for North Division/Lost to Penn State in Fiesta, 35-28
  23. Nebraska, B-10, ARR 24.7 / 4-8 in 17, 5th in West Division / Coach fired
  24. Mississippi State, SEC, ARR 24.9/9-4 2017, 5th West Division/won Bowl, 31-27
  25. Stanford, P-12, ARR 25.4 / Tied North Division, lost Alamo Bowl to TCU, 39-37
  26. Michigan State, B-10, ARR 27.0 /10-3 in 17, 3rd East Division, won Holiday Bowl
  27. North Carolina, ACC, ARR 27.9 /Last Coastal Division @ 1-7/3-9 overall in 2017
  28. Virginia Tech, ACC, ARR 29.6 /2nd in Coastal/Lost Camping World, Ok St. 30-21
  29. TCU, B-12, ARR 29.9 /11-3 in 2017, 2nd B-12/Beat Stanford in Alamo Bowl, 39-37
  30. Arkansas, SEC, ARR 30.8 /4-8 in 2017, last in the West Division 1-7 / Coach fired
  31. Louisville, ACC, ARR 32.1 /3rd in Division/8-5 overall, lost bowl to Miss St, 31-27
  32. Kentucky, SEC, ARR 33.5 /3rd in East @ 4-4 & 7-6 overall, lost Bowl to N-western
  33. Maryland, B-10, ARR 34.5 / 4-8 in 2017, last in the East Division @ 2-7
  34. Baylor, B-12, ARR 35.4 / 9/10 in B-12 ahead of only Kansas @ 1-8 & 1-11 in 2017
  35. Oklahoma State, B-12, ARR 38.1/3rd in B-12 @ 6-3 & 10-3 in 17, won Bowl, 30-21
  36. Wisconsin, B-10, ARR 38.7/13-1 in 17, lost B-10 Championship/won Orange Bowl
  37. Utah, P-12, ARR 39.1 / 7-6 in 17, won Heart of Dallas Bowl, 30-14 0ver WV,30-14
  38. Arizona State, P-12, ARR 39.2/2nd South Division @ 6-3/ 7-6 overall/Coach fired
  39. NC State, ACC, ARR 40.2 / 2nd Atlantic Division 6-2/ 9-4 overall, won Sun Bowl
  40. West Virginia, B-12, ARR 40.0/ 7-6 in 17/4th in B-12, lost to Utah in Bowl Game
  41. Missouri, SEC, ARR 40.7/ 4th in East Division 4-4, 7-6 overall, lost Bowl Game
  42. Pittsburgh, ACC, ARR 41.1/ 4th in Coastal @ 3-5/5-7 in 17, did not make a Bowl
  43. Iowa, B-10, ARR 44.8/ 3rd in West Division @ 3-5, 8-5 overall, won Bowl Game
  44. Arizona, P-12, ARR 46.2 / 3rd in Division @ 5-4, overall 7-6 / Coach fired
  45. California, P-12, ARR 46.4 / 5th North Division, 5-7 overall/did not make a Bowl
  46. Duke, ACC, ARR 47.2 / 6th in Coastal Division, 7-6 in 17, beat N Ill in Bowl
  47. Washington State, P-12, ARR 49.3 / 3rd in North Division @ 6-3, lost Bowl Game
  48. Texas Tech, B-12, ARR 49.4 /8th in B-12 @ 3-6, 6-7 overall, lost Bowl Game
  49. Georgia Tech, ACC, ARR 49.5 / 5-6 in 2017/ 3rd in Coastal/ did not make a Bowl
  50. Vanderbilt, SEC, ARR 50.3 / 6th in East Division @ 1-7/5-7 in 17, No Bowl Game
  51. Minnesota, B-10, ARR 51.4 /6th in West Division/Did not Qualify for Bowl Game
  52. Northwestern, B-10, ARR 52.6 /won 10 games, 2nd West Division, won Bowl
  53. Indiana. B-10, ARR 52.7 / 5-7 overall, 2-7 in East Division, Did not earn Bowl
  54. Colorado, P-12, ARR 56.0 / Last in South Division, 5-7 in 2017, No Bowl Game
  55. Iowa State, B-12, ARR 56.0 / Beat OU, 38-31 & TCU, 14-7, won Bowl Game
  56. Virginia, ACC, ARR 56.1 / 5th in Coastal @ 3-5, lost to Navy in Bowl, 49-7
  57. Rutgers, B-10, ARR 56.8 / 5th in East Division 3-6/ Did not qualify for Bowl
  58. Illinois, B-10, ARR 57.0 / 2-10 in 17 & 0-9 in Big Ten / Beat Ball St & WKU
  59. Syracuse, ACC, ARR 57.0 /Last in Atlantic, Beat Clemson, 27-24/No Bowl Game
  60. Oregon State, P-12, ARR 57.4 / 1-11 in 2017, 0-9 in P-12/ Only win vs FCS Team
  61. Wake Forest, ACC, ARR 58.5 /8-5 in 17/4th Atlantic Division/Beat A&M in Bowl
  62. Purdue, B-10, ARR 62.8 / 7-6 in 2017, won Bowl Game over Arizona, 38-35
  63. Kansas State, B-12, ARR 63.8 / 5th in B-12 @ 5-4 & 8-5 overall / won Bowl Game
  64. BYU, IND, ARR 64.7 / 4-9 overall / Did not qualify for a Bowl Game in 2017
  65. Boston College, ACC, ARR 65.8 / 5th in Atlantic Division/ 7-6 overall, Lost Bowl
  66. Kansas, B-12, ARR 67.8 /Weakest recruiting P5/Only win in 17 vs an FCS Team

 

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Saint Paddy’s Party @ Lops

The 34th Annual Saint Paddy’s Day Celebration will be held @ Loppnows Super Sports Bar. The Party will be Saturday 12 to 12! Since most of the guys I ran with over the years are to dumb to remember 2 numbers, I have had to resort to giving them 1 number … 12 … begins/ends @ 12! And as always. remember, you are never the dumbest guy at Lops … and as impossible as it may seem … it is true for everyone! Hope to see you on Saturday, the 17th of March!

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Top Ten Games of Week Nine

10. Michigan State 6-1 @ Northwestern 4-3: The visitor is 9-1 in the last 10 games. The last time the Spartans were in Evanston, they won, 30-6! MSU is 21-8 in B-10 road games, including last year’s 0-4 debacle!, That said the Cats scored at will against the Spartans last year in East Lancing, winning 54-40! Northwestern enters the game with 2 straight wins, 37-21 over Maryland & 17-10 in OT over Iowa. MSU has not lost since the ND game, winning four in a row including a 14-10 victory over Michigan! Vegas Hot$heets opened with MSU -1, while SCFP thinks, MSU wins the Statistical battle 6-2 and the Game 23-22! 

TV ESPN 2:30 P.M.

9.  Mississippi State 5-2 @ Texas A&M 5-2: The visiting team has lost 4 in a row! The games have not been nail-biters; in 13 MSU lost to A&M, 51-41, in 13′ the Bulldogs won, 48-31, in 2015, it was A&M, 30-17, and in 16;, we finally had a one score game with Mississippi State winning, 35-28! Last year the Aggies were ranked 4th in the 1st CFP poll and entered this game with a 6-1 record (only loss was to Bama, 33-14) they lost this game and then 3 of their final 4, including their Bowl game vs Kansas State, 33-28! Vegas Hot$heets opened with Texas A&M -2, while SCFP says not so fast my Friend, Miss St. wins in a Statistical rout 7-1 and the Game score of 30-25  Bulldogs! 

TV ESPN 6:15 P.M.

8. Georgia 7-0 vs Florida 3-3: “The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party”, no longer in vogue. but none-the-less an appropriate name to describe the the prelude goings-on prior to kick-off. This is the 22nd straight year the game has been played in Jacksonville, Fl and fittingly Florida has won 3 in a row! Further, these games have not been close, in 14′ the Gators won 38-20, in 15′ 27-3 and last year, Florida won, 24-10.  Georgia is 7-0 and ranked 2nd on SCFP while Florida is 3-3 and unranked! Vegas Hot$heets opened with Georgia -12.5, while SCFP says its all Georgia, ‘Dawgs’ win in a Statistical rout 8-0 and the Game by a score of 31-19! 

TV CBS 2:30 P.M.

7. Georgia Tech 4-2 @ Clemson 6-1: G-Tech 2 losses are both by 1 point, 42-41 in double OT to Tennessee & 25-24 to Miami, FL! Clemson’s one loss is to Syracuse, 27-24 on Oct 13th. Miami beat Syracuse, 27-19 a week after surviving the Yellow Jackets! These comparative scores may be meaningless, as Kelly Bryant, Clemson’s QB has been cleared to play on Saturday. He suffered a concussion and was forced to leave the Syracuse Game. Paul Johnson is 5-5 vs Clemson and Clemson has not lost 2 straight in 78 games. Vegas Hot$heets opens liking Clemson -16, while SCFP agrees, Clemson dominates the Statistical battle 6-2, but wins a tight game, 27-25! 

TV ESPN 2 / 7:00 P.M.

6. USC 6-2 @ Arizona State 4-3: The Trojans will be limping into Sun Devil Stadium or will they? It depends how quickly they recover from the 49-14 tail-whippin they suffered in South Bend! The winner of this game is in the drivers seat to make the P-12 Championship game and the loser, sadly, is more or less over & out! These teams are passing in the night with ASU heading up the ladder and USC sliding down. SC needs to  to recover mentally from the ND experience, its play-off hopes gone, and focus on the P-12 Championship. While ASU has beaten an undefeated (at the time) Washington, 13-7,  a very good Utah team, 30-10 and has only objective; a berth in the P-12 Championship Game! Heading into Saturday, SC is 4-1 and ASU is 3-1 in P-12 play! Vegas Hot$heets opens saying it is USC -6, while SCFP thinks SC recovers and easily wins the Statistical battle 6-2, and yet survives a close game, 30-28!

TV ESPN 9:45 P.M. 

5. UCLA 4-3 @ Washington 6-1: The Huskies are now the standard bearer for the P-12 to reach the CFP and to do so, will need, not only to win out, but do so impressively! Washington is entering a tough five week stretch that will make or break their play-off aspirations (UCLA & Oregon @ home, @ Stanford, and Utah and Wash. St at home). Meanwhile the Bruins are coming off a win over Oregon, 31-14 and feature one of the nations best QB’s, Josh Rosen. He is 2nd in the country in passing yardage with 2,620 and tied for 8th with 19 TDs! To make matters worse for the Huskies, their secondary is banged up! CBs Jordan Miller & Byron Murphy are both out! Vegas Hot$heets opens saying forget those D-Backs, its Washington -17.5, while SCFP thinks Washington wins the Statistical battle 6-2, and the game, by a score of 38-25! 

TV ESPN 2 / 2:30 P.M.

4. Oklahoma State 6-1 @ West Virginia 5-2: This game will turn on 2 words Will & Grier. WV’s QB is one of the best kept secrets in both the B-12 & the nation. Grier leads the nation with 26 TD passes to only 5 picks and 66.% completion rate! Or Maybe, the 2 words are Mason and Rudolph! OSU’s QB leads the nation in passing yards 2.650 (30 more than Rosen) and in Passing yards per game @ 378.6. Clearly, this is the day’s best match-up in QB play! The WRs in this game are also outstanding, the Cowboy’s James Washington leads the nation in receiving yards per game (130.6) and is 2nd in the nation in receiving yards (914). While WV’s David Stills leads the country in Receiving TDs (15) and a 2nd WV receiver, Gary Jennings, is 4th in the FBS in receptions per game (8.0)! Vegas Hot$heets opens saying Mason & Rudolph, its Ok. St -7, while SCFP thinks Oklahoma State wins the Statistical battle 6-2, and the game, by a score of 37-33!

TV ABC 11:00 A.M.

3.  TCU 7-0 @ Iowa State 5-2: Ohio ain’t that far from Iowa, but for Matty Campbell, it must seem like light years ‘ from Toledo to Ames. Two years ago he was winning games for the Rockets in relative obscurity, now he is becoming a household name in the college football world. Four weeks ago, the Cyclones were 2-2 and headed to yet, another so-so season and then came the shocker! ISU went into Norman and beat an undefeated (at the time) OU, 38-31, followed by a stomping of Kansas. 45-0, and then a successful invasion of Lubbock’s Jones AT&T Stadium with a 31-13 trashing of T-Tech! TCU comes in to Ames, Iowa unbeaten at 7-0 and clearly, the standard bearer for the B-12’s CFP hopes! The Frogs have already beaten Oklahoma State, 44-31 & West Virginia, 31-24 and headed for a showdown in Norman with OU. All that changed when ISU won in Norman, now Gary Patterson’s team faces a strong challenge from the Cyclones @ Jack Trice Stadium, and an improved Texas team (who beat ISU, 17-7) before they even think about their trip to Oklahoma. That OU game is now a long way off! Vegas Hot$heets opens saying its TCU -7, while SCFP thinks its the Horned Frogs, 7-1 in the Statistical whippin but a narrow 31-25 victory on the scoreboard!

TV ESPN 2 / 2:30 P.M. 

2. NC State 6-1 @ Notre Dame 6-1: If Matty Campbell thinks his journey from Toledo to Ames was traveled at Light Speed, so to, must Dave Doeren, who, like Campbell. arrived in the ACC via the MAC! This time the journey originated in DeKalb, Il (NIU) and ended in Raleigh, NC @ NC State.  NC State features one of the best defensive ends in the country in Bradley Chubb and worse for ND, Bradley is the cousin of Nick Chubb, who ran for 63 yards vs the Irish in their only loss. Georgia 20 ND 19! Chubb is rated as 6th over all pick in the 2018 NFL draft (Tampa). He is matched up with the lest side of the ND line and Mike McGlinchey , who is projected as the 7th over-all pick (Arizona). This should prove interesting! Pre-game comments by the coaches suggest that the Wolfpack have the better game focus! Vegas Hot$heets opens saying its ND -8, while SCFP thinks its the Fight Irish, 7-1 in the Statistical battle and winning the game, 32-26! 

TV NBC 2:30 P.M.

1. Penn State 7-0 @ Ohio State  6-1: No question this is the day’s best game, the Lions are 7-0 and our coming off a 42-13 pounding of Michigan in Happy Valley. This to avenge a 49-10 whipping at the hands of the Wolves a year ago in the Big House! PSU has one more score to settle, this time it is with the CFP Committee, who, although PSU beat OSU in OT, 24-21, won the B-10 East Division Championship, and then beat, an 11 win Wisconsin, 38-31 in the B-10 Championship, were, somehow, left out of the FBS’ Final Four! Instead, the committee selected the team that they beat from the division that they won, Ohio State! On the surface; how can that be? Well, here we go again! OSU comes in with one loss, a bad one, to Oklahoma, 31-16! Since that game, the Buck]s, QB JT Barrett has thrown 18 TDs, 0 INTs, winning 5 straight (Army, UNLV, Rutgers, Maryland, & Nebraska), while OSU offense has scored 50 or more points and accounted for 500 or more yards in the last four games! It should be noted that PSU was coming off a BYE prior to the Michigan game, now note, OSU is coming off a BYE this week! Vegas Hot$heets opens saying its OSU -7, while SCFP thinks its the Bucks easy in the Statistical battle. 7 to 1 and but winning the game in a nail-biter, 29-28! 

TV FOX 2:30 P.M.

 

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P5 Top 25, G5 Top 15, FCS Top 10 Week 9

Power Five: Top 25: Week 8

1.  Alabama (SEC) 8-0: Beat Tennessee, 45-7; Up Next: BYE Week

2.  Georgia (SEC) 7-0: BYE Week; Up Next: vs Florida, 3-3 (Jacksonville)

3.  Penn State (B-10) 7-0: Beat Michigan, 42-13; Up Next: @ Ohio State, 6-1

4. TCU (B-12) 7-0: Beat Kansas, 43-0-6; Up Next: @ Iowa State, 5-2

5. Wisconsin (B-10) 7-0: Beat Maryland, 38-13; Up Next: @ Illinois, 2-5

6. Clemson (ACC) 6-1: BYE Week: UP Next: @ H vs G-Tech, 4-2

7. Oklahoma (B-12) 6-1: Beat Kansas State, 42-35; Up Next: @ H vs T-Tech 4-3

8. Notre Dame (IND) 6-1: Beat USC, 49-14; Up Next: @ Home vs NC State, 6-1

9. Ohio State (B-10) 6-1: Bye Week; Up Next: @ Home vs Penn State, 7-0

10. Virginia Tech (ACC) 6-1: Beat UNC, 59-7; Up Next: @ Home vs Duke; 4-4

11 Miami (ACC) 5-0: Beat Syracuse, 27-19; Up Next: @ UNC, 1-7

12. Oklahoma State (B-12) 6-1: Beat Texas in OT, 13-10; Up Next: @ W. Virginia, 5-2

13.  Washington (P-12) 6-1: BYE Week; Up Next: @ H vs UCLA  4-3

14. Michigan State (B-10) 6-1: Beat Indiana, 17-9; Up Next: @ Northwestern  4-3

15.  NC State (ACC) 6-1: BYE Week; Up Next: @ Notre Dame 6-1

16.  Stanford (P-12) 5-2: BYE Week; Up Next: @ Oregon State, 1-6

17. LSU (B-12) 5-2: Beat Ole Miss, 42-24; Up Next: BYE Week

18. Auburn (SEC) 5-2: Beat Arkansas 52-20; Up Next: BYE Week

19. Michigan (B-10) 5-2: Lost to PSU, 42-13; Up Next: @ H vs Rutgers, 3-4

20. USC (P-12) 6-2: Lost to ND, 49-14; Up Next: @ Arizona State 4-3 

21. Washington St. (P-12) 6-1: Beat Colorado, 28-0; Up Next: @ Arizona, 4-3

22. Georgia Tech (ACC) 4-2: Beat Wake Forest, 38-24; Up Next: @ Clemson, 6-1

23. South Carolina (SEC) 5-2: BYE Week; Up Next: B@ Vanderbilt, 3-4

24. Arizona State (P-12) 4-3: Beat Utah, 30-10Up Next: @ Home vs USC 6-2

25. Iowa State (B-12) 5-2: Beat T-Tech, 31-13; Up Next: @ H vs TCU, 7-0

Group of Five:  Top 15

1. South Florida (AAC) 7-0: Beat Tulane, 34-28; Up Next: @ H vs Cincinnati 2-5

2. Central Florida (AAC) 6-0: Beat Navy, 31-21; Up Next: BYE Week

3.  Memphis (AAC) 5-1: Beat Houston, 42-38; Up Next: @ H vs Tulane, 3-4 (Friday)

4. Toledo (MWC) 6-1: Beat Akron, 48-21 ; Up Next: @ Ball State 2-5

5. Marshall (C-USA) 6-1: Beat Middle Tennessee, 38-10; Up Next: @ H vs FIU 4-2

6. Boise St. (MWC) 5-2: Beat Wyoming, 24-14; Up Next: @ Utah State 4-4

7. Appalachian St. (SBC) 5-2: Beat Coastal Carolina, 37-29; Up Next: @ U-Mass 1-7

8. Colorado State (MWC) 6-2: Beat N. Mexico, 27-24; Up Next: @ H vs Air Force 3-4

9. Army 6-2 (IND): Beat Temple in OT,  31-28; Up Next: BYE Week

10. Navy (AAC) 5-2: Lost to UCF, 31-21; Up Next: BYE Week

11. Troy (SBC) 5-2: Beat Georgia State, 34-10 ; Up Next: @ Georgia Southern. 0-7

12. N. Illinois (MAC) 5-2: Beat Bowling Green, 48-17, Up Next: @ H E. Michigan 2-5

13. Fresno State (MWC) 5-2: Beat San Diego State; 27-3; Up Next: @ H vs UNLV 2-5

14. Ohio (MAC) 6-2: Beat Kent State, 48-3; Up Next: @ H vs Miami OH, 3-5

15. San Diego St. (MWC) 6-2: Lost to Fresno State, 27-3; Up Next: @ Hawaii 3-4

FCS: Top 10

1. James Madison (CAA) 7-0: Beat W & M, 46-14; Up Next: @ H vs N. Hamp.

2. N. Dakota St. (MVFC) 7-0: Beat, 27-24 OT; Up Next: @ H vs N. Iowa 4-3

3. Jacksonville St 6-1 (SLC): Beat E. Illinois, 30-14; Up Next: @ ESE Missouri St. 2-5

4. N Car. A&T (MEAC) 8-0: Beat Bethune Cookman, 24-20;Up Next: BYE Week

5. Elon (CAA) 6-1: Beat R. Island, 35-34; Up Next: @ Villanova,4-3

6.  Sam Houston State (SLC) 6-1: Beat Lamar, 63-27;  Up Next: @ SE Louisiana 5-3

7.  S. Dakota (MVFC) 6-1: Lost Illinois State, 37-21; Up Next: @ H vs S. Ill. 4-3

8. McNeese St. (SLC) 5-1: Beat Incarnate Word, 55-7; Up Next: @ C. Arkansas 5-2

9. Grambling State (SWAC) 6-1: Beat Alcorn, 41-14; Up Next: @ H vs Texas S. 0-6

10. N. Arizona (B-Sky) 5-2: Beat UC Davis, 45-31, Up Next: @ H Sacramento St 4-3

 

 

 

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